Moving past this year

Forums/Armchair-GM

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Créé par: sammy_daws1997

Équipe: 2021-22 Maple Leafs de Toronto

Date de création initiale: 6 avr. 2021

Publié: 8 avr. 2021

Mode - plafond salarial: Basique

Description

Hyman is the focus this offseason. He will get paid and the Leafs need to sign him no matter what. $5.5 seems like fair value but I could see him getting up to about $6.25. I dont see him getting any more than that as then he is getting into Nylander territory which is a bit outside of his comparables.

Second after Hyman depends on the expansion draft. I have decided that the Leafs would make a trade with Seattle to have them take Dermott instead of Kerfoot. In this scenario they protect Matthews/Tavares/Marner/Nylander/Reilly/Holl/Muzzin/Brodie/Campbell. The ask is most likely a 1st to take Dermott based on Vegas's trades, and I would make that trade in a heart beat. Dermott + 1st (likely 28th-32nd overall if Leafs make it out of the North division) for Kerfoot is a trade I make all day. Especially in a year where drafting is more of a crap shoot than ever due to junior leagues not playing all year.

I think the Leafs should then re-sign 3 additional forwards from this year in Spezza, Simmonds, and Galchenyuk. All 3 have looked good this year and all fill different holes in the roster.

The final two forward spoto to Robertson and Engvall. After that, I'm sure that Dubas will also sign 3 or 4 guys to league min. contracts in order to fill the scratches in case of injury. Personally, I would love to see both Boyd and Vesey back in the Leafs uniform...

Moving to the back end, most of the defense is the same as this year. I think the Leafs actually have a great defense this year. They are very defensively sound, and when you have the fire power up front that they do, you dont need guys like Erik Karlson and Cale Makar on the backend. You want defense not offense out of these guys.

For that reason, I would be shocked if they dont try and bring back Bogo.. Assuming Sandin takes the next step, Bogosian is the perfect partner to help him along next year.

After 3 scratches at or below the league min, that leaves us just over $1M to fill the 2nd goalie spot with Campbell. I dont think bringing Freddy back is realistic, and with Campbell looking like the guy who got picked 11OA we don't necessarily need him...

I think signing a guy like Brian Elliott or Jaro Halak would be perfect for Campbell. A guy who can play 30+ games a year giving Campbell some rest ocasionally, and also a bit more experienced to help him grow his game. Both of those guys may want more than $1M per, but that is okay since we can just run with 1 or 2 scratches instead of 3.

Signatures de joueurs autonomes

UFA	ANS	CAP HIT
Hyman, Zach	6	5 500 000 $
Bogosian, Zach	1	900 000 $
Galchenyuk, Alex	1	800 000 $
Simmonds, Wayne	1	1 000 000 $
Spezza, Jason	1	800 000 $
Elliott, Brian	1	1 000 000 $

Transactions

TOR

To Seattle in expansion draft

VGK

Dermott, Travis [Droits de RFA]
Choix de 1e ronde en 2021 (TOR)

Transactions impliquant une retenue de salaire

Phil Kessel: 1 200 000 $ (15%)

Repêchage	1e ronde	2e ronde	3e ronde	4e ronde	5e ronde	6e ronde	7e ronde
2021
2022
2023

FORMATION

VUE À LONG TERME

INTÉGRÉ

TEXTE INTÉGRÉ

TAILLE DE LA FORMATION	PLAFOND SALARIAL	CAP HIT	EXCÉDENTS	BONIS	ESPACE SOUS LE PLAFOND SALARIAL
21	81 500 000 $	79 929 783 $	0 $	400 000 $	1 570 217 $

Ailier gauche	Centre	Ailier droit
Hyman, Zach 5 500 000 $5 500 000 $ AD, AG UFA - 7	Matthews, Auston 11 640 250 $11 640 250 $ C UFA - 3	Marner, Mitchell 10 903 000 $10 903 000 $ AD UFA - 4
Galchenyuk, Alex 800 000 $800 000 $ AG, C, AD UFA - 1	Tavares, John 11 000 000 $11 000 000 $ C, AG NMC UFA - 4	Nylander, William 6 962 366 $6 962 366 $ AD UFA - 3
Robertson, Nicholas 796 667 $796 667 $ AG, AD RFA - 3	Kerfoot, Alexander 3 500 000 $3 500 000 $ AG, C, AD UFA - 2	Spezza, Jason 800 000 $800 000 $ C, AD UFA - 1
Mikheyev, Ilya 1 645 000 $1 645 000 $ AG, AD UFA - 1	Engvall, Pierre 1 250 000 $1 250 000 $ AD, AG UFA - 1	Simmonds, Wayne 1 000 000 $1 000 000 $ AD, AG UFA - 2

Défenseur gaucher	Défenseur droitier	Gardien de but
Rielly, Morgan 5 000 000 $5 000 000 $ DG NMC UFA - 1	Brodie, TJ 5 000 000 $5 000 000 $ DG/DD NTC UFA - 3	Campbell, Jack 1 650 000 $1 650 000 $ G UFA - 1
Muzzin, Jake 5 625 000 $5 625 000 $ DG NTC UFA - 3	Holl, Justin 2 000 000 $2 000 000 $ DD M-NTC UFA - 2
Sandin, Rasmus 894 167 $894 167 $ DG UFA - 1	Bogosian, Zach 900 000 $900 000 $ DD UFA - 3	Elliott, Brian 1 000 000 $1 000 000 $ G UFA - 1

Laissés de côté	Liste des blessés (IR)	Liste des blessés à long terme (LTIR)
Liljegren, Timothy 863 333 $863 333 $ (400 000 $$400K) DD RFA - 1

8 avr. 2021 à 16 h 37

palhal

LongtimeLeafsufferer

Rejoint: juill. 2015

Messages: 59,739

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What's the reason giving Seattle a first rounder for a guy they might select anyway?

Saskleaf a aimé ceci.

8 avr. 2021 à 16 h 37

CeciGOAT

Rejoint: août 2020

Messages: 749

Mentions "j'aime": 289

1. Hyman will not get more than 5 million
2. Seattle will take dermott for free. He is cheaper and younger than kerfoot. If they want kerfoot let them have him he isn’t worth a first so why would they trade a first to keep him

palhal a aimé ceci.

8 avr. 2021 à 16 h 38

Saskleaf

Go leafs go

Rejoint: avr. 2020

Messages: 13,274

Mentions "j'aime": 9,211

Dermott plus first for Kerfoot is a horrible trade. There's an arguement to be made, because Kerfoot is overpayed, that Dermott>Kerf.

mitchmarner16 a aimé ceci.

8 avr. 2021 à 16 h 45

LeafsFanForSomeReason

Rejoint: janv. 2020

Messages: 6,809

Mentions "j'aime": 5,289

That term/dollar combo for Hyman is outrageous. The Dermott to Seattle trade is also absurd; if anything the Leafs would have to pay them to take Kerfoot over Dermott.

8 avr. 2021 à 16 h 47

PleaseBanMeForMyOwnGood

Banni

Rejoint: mai 2018

Messages: 24,997

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Unfortunately if Hyman wants more than 4 you have to let him go. That much for him is just crazy. He's a great complimentary player for Matthews and Marner and can drive the 3rd line, however he's likely at best a 40 point winger away from the top line. You can't overpay depth and he is just that. This much money and term and you could have Andrew Ladd on your hands in the very near future. He's 29 and plays a hard game that can lead to big decline fast. He can be replaced a lot easier than Rielly can and if you give this much money to Hyman, Rielly is gone.

8 avr. 2021 à 16 h 50

PleaseBanMeForMyOwnGood

Banni

Rejoint: mai 2018

Messages: 24,997

Mentions "j'aime": 7,855

I can't see the Leafs caring who gets taken by Seattle. They want Kerfoot or Dermott have at er.

8 avr. 2021 à 16 h 55

Byrr

Rejoint: juill. 2019

Messages: 6,288

Mentions "j'aime": 3,037

Why wouldnt you just buy an upgrade on Kerfoot for that 1st?

8 avr. 2021 à 17 h 13

BCAPP

Rejoint: mai 2015

Messages: 9,382

Mentions "j'aime": 3,695

Quoting: Saskleaf

Dermott plus first for Kerfoot is a horrible trade. There's an arguement to be made, because Kerfoot is overpayed, that Dermott>Kerf.

Kerfoot is not overpaid.

The leafs are desperately trying to save money as we have expensive top end contracts but 3.5 mil for a 3c/2lw who is decent but not remarkable at either through his prime is totally fair

8 avr. 2021 à 17 h 13

BCAPP

Rejoint: mai 2015

Messages: 9,382

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Overpay for asking to take Dermott who they may actually take. Maybe a 3rd or 4th

8 avr. 2021 à 17 h 13

#10

BCAPP

Rejoint: mai 2015

Messages: 9,382

Mentions "j'aime": 3,695

Elliot is washed up. Terrible idea

8 avr. 2021 à 17 h 15

#11

BCAPP

Rejoint: mai 2015

Messages: 9,382

Mentions "j'aime": 3,695

That Hyman contract is insane. Yes Hyman is quite important to the leafs but based on his actual production he has no argument for above 5 MAYBE 5.5 for about 5 years.

Realistically he should be low to mid 4s.

I suspect you can meet him in the middle and instead of signing like 4 or 5 years for 5.25 you sign him for 6 or 7 for like 4.25

8 avr. 2021 à 17 h 26

#12

Barilko14

In Pridham we trust

Rejoint: mai 2015

Messages: 3,589

Mentions "j'aime": 1,969

I like Kerfoot, but it appears you like him wayyyy more than me (or any other Leafs fan apparently).

8 avr. 2021 à 17 h 33

#13

Saskleaf

Go leafs go

Rejoint: avr. 2020

Messages: 13,274

Mentions "j'aime": 9,211

Quoting: BCAPP

Yes, he is overpayed with the flat cap.

I'm not one of those people who think's he has negative value or anything (in fact, I usually defend the fact he has value), but the reality is he's overpayed.

8 avr. 2021 à 17 h 57

#14

oneX

Rejoint: mars 2019

Messages: 2,795

Mentions "j'aime": 2,634

Quoting: PleaseBanMeForMyOwnGood

He can be replaced a lot easier than Rielly can and if you give this much money to Hyman, Rielly is gone.

Just on your Rielly point, he may be gone regardless because I think he'll get around 8-9 million as a UFA.

I doubt the Leafs can afford that.

8 avr. 2021 à 19 h 5

#15

PleaseBanMeForMyOwnGood

Banni

Rejoint: mai 2018

Messages: 24,997

Mentions "j'aime": 7,855

Quoting: oneX

Just on your Rielly point, he may be gone regardless because I think he'll get around 8-9 million as a UFA.

I doubt the Leafs can afford that.

I think Rielly will sign for less than that. He really wants to be a Leaf. Pietrangelo has done more in his career and got 8.8. I bet Rielly signs for closer to Krug than Pietrangelo. Under 8, and he'll be worth it as well. Hyman is great but for how long and can he be replicated by a cheaper player? Like Anderson or some other young guy

8 avr. 2021 à 19 h 33

#16

BCAPP

Rejoint: mai 2015

Messages: 9,382

Mentions "j'aime": 3,695

Quoting: Saskleaf

He really isn't

I was in the middle of an analysis the other day but never posted it.

Over the last 2 years he's about 80th in forwards (min 450 es minutes or so which gave 360 forwards) in first assists/60 abouts 220th in goals/60 and about 160th in points/60

In other words hes scoring like a low end second liner overall.

He can play c and w. And he's above average but not special defensively by essentially all metrics.

He's the epitome of a middle sixer who can play both w and c.

That is worth about 3.5-4.5.

He only seems overpaid as the leafs are nickle and diming

8 avr. 2021 à 19 h 54

#17

Saskleaf

Go leafs go

Rejoint: avr. 2020

Messages: 13,274

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Quoting: BCAPP

https://www.capfriendly.com/comparables/alexander-kerfoot-9447

Look at this and tell me how many of these guys you'd want over Kerfoot, when these contracts were signed.

Sunquist, Danault, Jenner, Pageau, Eakin Lowry, etc, all guys that are either on par with Kerfoot (Eakin and Sunquist) or signifigantly better than him (Jenner, Danualt, Pageau Lowry).

He's not crazy overpayed to the point he has negitive value, but his contract reduces his value. If he was payed half of what he is now, he could probably get at least a second round pick, maybe more. As is, the leafs would likely get a 3rd round pick, maybe not even with this stupid flat cap.

8 avr. 2021 à 20 h 5

#18

BCAPP

Rejoint: mai 2015

Messages: 9,382

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Quoting: Saskleaf

I'd take kerfoot before Sundqvist, Desharnais, and Cizsikas

I'd put him roughly equal or a little ahead of Lowry and Eakin

I'd take Jenner, Danault, Pageau well before him

Thanks for the list it proves my point. He's essentially totally fairly paid

8 avr. 2021 à 20 h 13

#19

BCAPP

Rejoint: mai 2015

Messages: 9,382

Mentions "j'aime": 3,695

Quoting: Saskleaf

Also those comparables are based partially on how much had played and scored when he signed.

If you change it to just compare his position and money the list changes to an even more favourable one

8 avr. 2021 à 21 h 6

#20

Saskleaf

Go leafs go

Rejoint: avr. 2020

Messages: 13,274

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Quoting: BCAPP

Also those comparables are based partially on how much had played and scored when he signed.

If you change it to just compare his position and money the list changes to an even more favourable one

The way you changed it he looks very overpayed. I don't think he's very overpayed, only slightly. But changing it to only cap hits made it very bad for Kerfoot (Backlund, Tierney, Jenner among the names.

8 avr. 2021 à 21 h 19

#21

BCAPP

Rejoint: mai 2015

Messages: 9,382

Mentions "j'aime": 3,695

Quoting: Saskleaf

Jenner, Boone 94.20%
Eller, Lars 93.20%
Desharnais, David 90.00%
Eakin, Cody 87.40%
Krüger, Marcus 86.00%
Cizikas, Casey 86.00%
Wilson, Colin 85.60%
Sundqvist, Oskar 85.50%
Faksa, Radek 85.00%
Pageau, Jean-Gabriel 85.00%
Coyle, Charlie 84.30%
Danault, Phillip 82.60%
Backlund, Mikael 81.50%
Anisimov, Artem 80.90%
Tierney, Chris 79.70%
Lowry, Adam 79.30%
Berglund, Patrik 78.80%
Haula, Erik 77.90%
Athanasiou, Andreas 70.80%

There's the list for 70% plus

He's likely about middle of that list

Jenner, Faksa, Pageau, Danault, Coyle, Tierney, Backlund ahead of him

Eller, Eakin, Wilson, Haula, Lowry similar

Better than Berglund, Desharnais, Kruger, Cizsikas, Sundqvist, Athanasiou, Anisimov

So 19 players

7 better
5 similar
7 worse

Seems quite fairly paid

8 avr. 2021 à 23 h 41

#22

Saskleaf

Go leafs go

Rejoint: avr. 2020

Messages: 13,274

Mentions "j'aime": 9,211

Quoting: BCAPP

Disagree on your assesment.
In my opinion, Lowry>Kerfoot
Eller>Kerfoot
Athanasiou=Kerfoot (when he was with the wings)

But I do agree he does not have a horrible contract. He's just slightly on the low end, but not by much.

8 avr. 2021 à 23 h 57

#23

BCAPP

Rejoint: mai 2015

Messages: 9,382

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Quoting: Saskleaf

Lowry has a career high of 29 points and a career ppg of 0.32. Kerfoots is 0.5 on the dot. The difference in their defensive game does not overcome that to make him a better player.

Eller similarly. He had one good year of 30 points in 48 gp. Otherwise while on that contract he was about. 27-30 point player or about a 0.35 ppg player.

8 avr. 2021 à 23 h 59

#24

BCAPP

Rejoint: mai 2015

Messages: 9,382

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Quoting: Saskleaf

For the record I'm enjoying this conversation. I appreciate your input

Saskleaf a aimé ceci.

9 avr. 2021 à 9 h 44

#25

Saskleaf

Go leafs go

Rejoint: avr. 2020

Messages: 13,274

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Quoting: BCAPP

For the record I'm enjoying this conversation. I appreciate your input

I'm enjoying it too. I actually didn't realize Lowry and Ellers

Quoting: Saskleaf

Quoting: BCAPP

Had such a low P/PG. I would argue I'd rather have Lowry due to his pyshical game, but none the less I guess I didn't quite realize that he's not too overpaid.

BCAPP a aimé ceci.

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