LA is going to re-sign Iafallo. He's going to get significantly more money than that. Toffoli's contract is a good comparable.

Why would we give bear away for free? I'd rather let Barrie walk because he'll be asking for a lot more than that.

Larsson and Barrie don’t need protection they are UFAs. If you are losing bear you better get something back like at least a first rounder.

I think even if Barrie does decide it's in his best interest to stay in EDM because of the "perfect fit" it still might cost at least 5.5 x 4. From the sounds of it I wouldn't get to excited about Nuge signing anything less then 7, there were rumbling recently about his contract talks being between 6-6.5 but that's for maybe 4 years and then sign bigger longer after when things go back to normal but that just doesn't make sense, by then he'll be 32 and most likely in the decline. It's not like he's elite elite and worth 7 x 5-6 at that age. If hes smart he holds of for as close to 7 as possible for as long possible. iF Holland decides Bear is expendable and leaves him exposed which I don't think he will have to I'm very certain he'll recoup some assets in the process or find a way to get Seattle to take more then just Neal into he expansion draft.

"Klefbom is exempt due to LTIR status"

Only if the medical prognosis is that he is unable to play in 2021-2022. The LTIR exemption applies only in cases of "career-threatening" injury. You can't just put a guy on LTIR, expect the League to declare him exempt, and then trot him out the first week of training camp. That's why guys like Ryan Kesler and Marian Hossa are exempt -- they're not going to be able to play again.

Everyone knows that aha why are people so obsessed with arguing that's he NOT exempt? Why do you care if a fan of the team makes a ACGM version under the assumption that he is exempt just to see what the team would look like aha do you not have anything better to do?

Most people believe that false statements are bad. You, obviously, don't.

The OP clearly believes that Edmonton will be able to shelter 4 of its defensemen in the expansion draft. I'm correcting that mistaken belief.

You do understand how an expansion draft works right? Giving a player away for free to the expansion team is precisely what it does... 🙄

They absolutely will protect Barrie, so it will come down to Bear vs Larsson. I choose Larsson every single time. This is assuming he resigns, which the way he is playing right now would be a no brainer to get done.

I appreciate my interpretation of the expansion draft rules may not be correct, however, here is the quote from NHL.com: * Players with potential career-ending injuries who have missed more than the previous 60 consecutive games (or who otherwise have been confirmed to have a career-threatening injury) may not be used to satisfy a team's player exposure requirements unless approval is received from the NHL. Such players also may be deemed exempt from selection.

What caught my eye was the 60 games played, clearly Klefbom won’t meet that...and with him having delayed surgery perhaps the Oilers can apply for exempt status given they will not know how he will recover. I may be way off but that would be a valuable angle to protect him if they could.

I think one of Bear or Jones has a pretty high probability of going to Seattle. Especially if Barrie and Larsson keep playing like they are...if the Oilers have playoff success, they both will get resigned (9-10M between the two I would predict). We have to remember that both Bear and Jones are 5th round picks and while that is a good thing it also makes them expendable when you see that Bouchard is ready and Broberg will be close behind. I would be completely fine with losing either of them to Seattle.

Also, RNH may get 7M ...max. I bet it’s under that though. Not a chance in hell Seattle takes Neal. We don’t even have draft picks available to sweeten the deal. Seattle will take notes from Vegas and draft young...guaranteed.

Ah ha ha ha...first rounder for Bear...are you kidding me?!? Bear doesn’t command a first rounder anytime...EVER! He’s at best a 4-5 Dman. You’d be damn lucky to get a 2nd out of him. He was a 5th rounder himself. 🙄

Note the repeated use of the phrase "career-ending." When you look at the guys who CapFriendly's expansion-draft software list with the youngsters that are exempt, you can see that the type of injury involved is one that guarantees virtually a 99% or better chance that the player will never return to the ice. (Gaborik, Hossa, Kesler, etc.). If there is any doubt about Klefbom's ability to play in 2021-2022, then the League won't make him exempt from the expansion draft.

Shame on you for stiffing my fellow Badger $25,000. He's so good, he might even be a Calder Trophy contender!

You foolishly protected two UFA's and you're laughing at the guy who pointed out how stupid that is? Wow are you clueless... and Ethan Bear has played first pairing for 1.5 seasons now, you're further ridicule shows just how out of touch you are with reality.

Wow buddy...chill. If you actually understood my notes above the UFA's that I protected (Barrie and Larsson) would have been resigned before the expansion draft. As for Bear...HA...first pairing...only because of injuries to others and he was forced into that role. I'm not saying he isn't valuable but there is no way he slots above Nurse, Barrie or Larsson in terms of value. You obviously don't watch Oiler games...what the real joke here is your overestimation of his value.

Ha ha...Yes, I'm very much looking forward to Hollaway joining the Oilers. If they get him signed, he may get a look late this season to see how he matches up in the big leagues. Thanks for the further explanation of the LTIR stuff. I still read it as a possibility for the Klefbom situation but maybe that is wishful thinking. I'm sure more info will be available on his prognosis come draft time.

That's what makes it such a stupid move. No GM is going to re-sign all his UFA's until after the expansion draft in order to reduce the value of the player taken by Seattle. Rookie move.


He was forced into the role when Larsson got injured in game 1 last season... but Larsson wasn't able to force Bear OUT of that role when he came back either, so there's that. The only reason Bear isn't the 1st pairing guy today is because of the concussion he suffered early this year. He's their best RHD when healthy.


He isn't above Nurse in value, but he has more value than Barrie and Larsson for many reasons: age, contract and ability being the main ones. Here's a little comp of how Nurse does with Bear vs with Barrie:

http://naturalstattrick.com/pairings.php?fromseason=20202021&thruseason=20202021&stype=2&sit=5v5&score=all&rate=y&team=EDM&loc=B&toi=160&gpfilt=none&fd=&td=&tgp=410

Bear is already better than Barrie while also being younger and cheaper. He has FAR more value.

I want to point out - in the sake of taking the "legalese" approach Edmonton would plead with the league:

"or who otherwise have been confirmed to have a career-threatening injury".

The case doesn't necessarily need to be career-threatening, even if Klefbom's actually is. Surgery can't cure arthritis, and there is still a chance he retires due to his bum shoulder.

Prorating the season, just as the league did in determining if Edmonton owed Calgary a 3rd round pick, indicates that Klefbom would have met the 60-game requirement had the league played a full season or anything north of the current 56-game season we were fortunate enough to get.

Given that he's only recently been scheduled for surgery (I believe its near the end of the month), it's guaranteed that Klefbom misses training camp outright, possibly the first half of next season, should he even be fit to continue his career. The recovery time is cited as a 6-month minimum, which puts his best-case scenario for being cleared for contact at the start of the season. It becomes a matter of conditioning then, as he'll have missed over a calendar year's worth of proper training and icetime.

The league's own history of decision making warrants that Klefbom be exempt from expansion. There is no certainty he plays again, and if he does, the earliest it likely happens is November next season.

Oilers fans are naturally pessimistic, as the league has an observable history of finding ways to screw us over (changing draft lottery rules, owing the Sharks and Bruins picks for fired coaches/GMs, owing the Flames a pick for the Lucic-Neal swap, RNH and McDavid's Calder snubs, it's a lengthy list if you dig into it, these are just the modern examples). My expectation is that Klefbom will remain eligible because it's the dumbest of the available options but Seattle won't select him given the risk involved.

I don't care what the analytics say (they only tell part of the story)...no GM in the league would value Bear over any one of those 3 and in fact he is probably below Klefbom (even with his injury proneness). You are absolutely kidding yourself if you can't see that. Holland will soon be in contract talks with Barrie and Larsson to get them signed before the expansion draft. You heard it hear first...Bear and Jones are exposed and one of them goes to the Kraken. The only way one of those players doesn't get picked is if they take a chance on Benson, Khaira (assuming he is resigned), Kassian or Haas (if resigned), but I'm pretty certain they are going to draft young so you can forget about Neal, Ennis, Chiasson or Nygard even being considered.

There is a reason why Bear only got $2M. If your "analytics" were telling the whole truth he would be in the $4M range...

*shrugs*

I can't help it if you're clueless.

You lost me at "Bear is already better than Barrie"...that statement in itself is not only laughable but shows how "clueless" you are...pretty much troll level analysis there buddy!
Nice talking with you...