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Créé par: BeterChiarelli
Équipe: 2021-22 Oilers d'Edmonton
Date de création initiale: 17 mars 2021
Publié: 17 mars 2021
Mode - plafond salarial: Basique
Description
Doubling down on two unpopular opinions: Holloway and McLeod take the extra year in the AHL and Koskinen remains as the backup. The idea for the ELC players at the very least is to push both the Condors and Oilers to playoff berths. Winning cultures in both clubs is part of the formula to building long-term success.

Savoie should probably play another season in the NCAA. I'd rather he get bigger minutes on that stage than 3rd line minutes in the AHL. Rodrigue's had a rough year in the AHL and I want Konovalov and Skinner to duke it out for the backup role next season, thus Olivier takes to the ECHL to pump his numbers. Holland needs to do everything possible to get Blumel out of his Czech contract and into Bakersfield's lineup next season. The kid is money.

Detroit trade helps maximize draft capital: the upcoming draft is going to be wild and the second round is apt to have more talent in it than years prior. The Oilers have a lot of their high-end positions covered already; the trick now is finding the intersection between quality and quantity. Draft pick values suggest Edmonton could pull more out of this trade, Red Wings fans soil themselves at the thought of it. The Oilers likely won't do something similar in 2021, as scouting should return to normal and the player Edmonton will have access to should be far more valuable than a pair of mid-seconds. In the meantime, look for Edmonton to scalp a few NCAA free agents to fill the void created by having moved picks.

Didn't make a ton of sense to bring in a Dubnyk or Elliot for a season to back up Merzlikins when Edmonton already has a better goaltender (over the past few seasons) on an expiring deal. No sense in jacking the price up on Elvis either just for Columbus to unnecessarily eat salary. If Edmonton upgrades the pick to a 1st, I want more coming back from Columbus; I'd prefer to take a cap dump in and around the $2M mark to balance the value. The Neal trade is just to spare Edmonton a buyout without costing the Devils much of anything. Could be any team, but if New Jersey wants to take a step forward, Neal's at least a veteran presence with powerplay utility and doesn't break their bank.

I'm assuming Klefbom isn't ready to start the season but would be able to return by the New Year (ish). Dumping Turris and burying Russell affords Edmonton all they need to activate Klefbom (Lagesson the likely scratch) and would *really* bolster their blueline for a considerable playoff run. I could see Holland wanting to upgrade on Kahun for a run, but the remainder of the roster is as strong as I've personally ever seen. I'm projecting Khaira to take a deal lower than his qualifying offer and for Edmonton to do the smart thing and walk away from Barrie. Krejci might be a long-shot but I value his experience, handedness, and position. If the man wants $5M, I'd give it to him.

Strong goaltending probably results in Edmonton winning the Pacific and punching their ticket to the WCF. A seven-game series against a very deep Avalanche would be must-see hockey.
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LISTE DE RÉSERVEANSCAP HIT
3825 000 $
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3775 000 $
RFAANSCAP HIT
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UFAANSCAP HIT
12 750 000 $
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66 500 000 $
Transactions
1.
EDM
    Seattle
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    EDM
    1. Choix de 2e ronde en 2021 (EDM)
    2. Choix de 2e ronde en 2021 (NYR)
    DET
    1. Choix de 1e ronde en 2021 (EDM)
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    EDM
    1. Choix de 7e ronde en 2022 (NJD)
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    1. Neal, James (2 000 000 $ retained)
    2. Choix de 3e ronde en 2022 (EDM)
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    CBJ
    1. Benson, Tyler [Droits de RFA]
    2. Choix de 2e ronde en 2022 (EDM)
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    EDM
      Waivers
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      TAILLE DE LA FORMATIONPLAFOND SALARIALCAP HITEXCÉDENTS Info-bulleBONISESPACE SOUS LE PLAFOND SALARIAL
      2381 500 000 $80 232 672 $669 339 $850 000 $1 267 328 $

      Formation

      Ailier gaucheCentreAilier droit
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      Logo de Blue Jackets de Columbus
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      G
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      2 750 000 $2 750 000 $
      DG/DD
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      863 333 $863 333 $ (Bonis de performance850 000 $$850K)
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      DD
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      Laissés de côtéListe des blessés (IR)Liste des blessés à long terme (LTIR)
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      1 650 000 $1 650 000 $
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      1 250 000 $1 250 000 $
      DG/DD
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      850 000 $850 000 $
      C, AD
      UFA - 1

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      17 mars 2021 à 15 h 19
      #1
      sensonfire
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      Red Wings accept smile
      17 mars 2021 à 15 h 22
      #2
      Buffbry
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      Quoting: sensonfire
      Red Wings accept smile


      Red wings only accept during draft day when we know where the pick is. Inside top 15 or no deal
      17 mars 2021 à 15 h 23
      #3
      BootBoi
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      Lot of thought and effort, but RNH&Larsson both take discounts?
      Highly doubt it, when Columbus would offer RNH $8 mill.
      Larsson may stand pat with salary.
      17 mars 2021 à 15 h 23
      #4
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      Quoting: sensonfire
      Red Wings accept smile


      Out of curiosity, the math behind draft pick values begets Edmonton should be able to get more value out of this trade, equivalent to about another 2nd round pick.

      I'm willing to concede that trading 3 seconds for a mid-late 1st is absurd, but is there an instance where Detroit would take salary back? Say the Edmonton 1st for those two seconds and Neal with $2M retained, thus negating the need to trade with the Devils.
      17 mars 2021 à 15 h 26
      #5
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      Quoting: buffbry
      Red wings only accept during draft day when we know where the pick is. Inside top 15 or no deal


      You're upgrading a pick by an entire round. Stop being silly. Moving up 31 spots is worth more than the Rangers' pick.

      Quoting: BootBoi
      Lot of thought and effort, but RNH&Larsson both take discounts?
      Highly doubt it, when Columbus would offer RNH $8 mill.
      Larsson may stand pat with salary.


      RNH talks are around the $6.5M figure, and the factor of the flat cap must be taken into consideration. Larsson's had a strong run recently but his play over his deal was up and down.

      Columbus can't offer RNH $8M if he's extended with the Oilers prior to the end of the season.
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      17 mars 2021 à 15 h 27
      #6
      TOR V5 GM
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      FINALLY a realistic Ian Cole offer
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      17 mars 2021 à 15 h 27
      #7
      Buffbry
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      Quoting: BeterChiarelli
      You're upgrading a pick by an entire round. Stop being silly. Moving up 31 spots is worth more than the Rangers' pick.



      RNH talks are around the $6.5M figure, and the factor of the flat cap must be taken into consideration. Larsson's had a strong run recently but his play over his deal was up and down.

      Columbus can't offer RNH $8M if he's extended with the Oilers prior to the end of the season.


      Uh no, what if edm wins the cup and it's the 32nd pick and rangers finish with the 4th worst record. This trade is made after position is locked, otherwise it's a complete pass
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      17 mars 2021 à 15 h 31
      #8
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      Quoting: buffbry
      Uh no, what if edm wins the cup and it's the 32nd pick and rangers finish with the 4th worst record. This trade is made after position is locked, otherwise it's a complete pass


      As an Oilers' fan I can tell you they don't make it out of the 2nd round.

      Even if the Rangers finish with a top-5 pick in the second round (they won't, rather shouldn't) you're still upgrading a pick by 32 positions. You're not dumb enough to tell me Detroit doesn't benefit from picking - even worst case scenario - 32nd as opposed to 63rd. The value of players drops off hard after the first round; it's absolutely worthwhile to upgrade on the Oilers pick at the expense of the Rangers' pick.
      17 mars 2021 à 15 h 32
      #9
      Buffbry
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      Quoting: BeterChiarelli
      As an Oilers' fan I can tell you they don't make it out of the 2nd round.

      Even if the Rangers finish with a top-5 pick in the second round (they won't, rather shouldn't) you're still upgrading a pick by 32 positions. You're not dumb enough to tell me Detroit doesn't benefit from picking - even worst case scenario - 32nd as opposed to 63rd. The value of players drops off hard after the first round; it's absolutely worthwhile to upgrade on the Oilers pick at the expense of the Rangers' pick.


      The answer is no before position is locked. You won't convince me otherwise.. making this trade before locked positions would be the stupidest thing on the planet. Why take a gamble when there is no reason. Throw in broberg and we will make it otherwise ZEROOOOOOOOOO CHANCE THIS HAPPENS

      If the rangers finish with the 5th worst record that's the 37th pick, no thanks
      17 mars 2021 à 15 h 40
      #10
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      Quoting: BeterChiarelli
      As an Oilers' fan I can tell you they don't make it out of the 2nd round.

      Even if the Rangers finish with a top-5 pick in the second round (they won't, rather shouldn't) you're still upgrading a pick by 32 positions. You're not dumb enough to tell me Detroit doesn't benefit from picking - even worst case scenario - 32nd as opposed to 63rd. The value of players drops off hard after the first round; it's absolutely worthwhile to upgrade on the Oilers pick at the expense of the Rangers' pick.


      Why do you bother?
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      17 mars 2021 à 15 h 41
      #11
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      Quoting: buffbry
      The answer is no before position is locked. You won't convince me otherwise.. making this trade before locked positions would be the stupidest thing on the planet. Why take a gamble when there is no reason. Throw in broberg and we will make it otherwise ZEROOOOOOOOOO CHANCE THIS HAPPENS

      If the rangers finish with the 5th worst record that's the 37th pick, no thanks


      I'll do the math for you then assuming draft pick values of last year's class (https://bluebulletreport.com/2020/10/05/2020-nhl-draft-rankings/)

      I'll assume Edmonton finishes with the 23rd pick. They won't beat the Leafs in a 7-game series so they're limited to a second-round finish. Let's assume the Rangers implode and their second rounder is indeed #37.

      The value of Edmonton's pick is 13.01. The value of the two picks in the Detroit deal are 5.13 and 4.39 respectively. Very simple arithmetic dictates that the Oilers leave value equivalent to the #71 pick on the table.

      The Oilers, at this point, are in search of quantity. The Red Wings, entrenched with their rebuild, should be focusing on quality. I'm willing to take the loss on that value in order to accommodate that need. The Red Wings only stand to benefit, why be so obtuse about it?

      Demanding that Edmonton throws in Broberg is monumentally stupid and you should be ashamed of it. I'm fine with you having an opinion, but there's no basis supporting your argument nor the arrogance behind it. The Red Wings clearly get the better player and better value out of this trade. What's not to like?

      And for my own curiosity and because I know you'll object if I don't spell it out for you, the trade doesn't even break even in value until Edmonton has the #30 pick. Detroit wins this trade, or at least makes out even with fair value, up until the point Edmonton makes the Stanley Cup Finals.
      17 mars 2021 à 15 h 41
      #12
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      Quoting: Copenhagen
      Why do you bother?


      Cause I'd rather do this than study for my upcoming mining exam.
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      17 mars 2021 à 15 h 44
      #13
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      Really appreciate the time put into this, and it looks like a logical and pretty solid roster to me. Only arguments I have is that I personally think Larsson asks for more than $3M, and I also highly doubt we'd end up with Krecji. Merzlikins trade might also be a bit light on Oilers side. Other than that, looks really good to me
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      17 mars 2021 à 15 h 47
      #14
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      Quoting: buffbry
      Red wings only accept during draft day when we know where the pick is. Inside top 15 or no deal


      No one trades a top 15 pick for 2 2nds. that only happens with later 1st.
      17 mars 2021 à 15 h 47
      #15
      Buffbry
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      Quoting: BeterChiarelli
      I'll do the math for you then assuming draft pick values of last year's class (https://bluebulletreport.com/2020/10/05/2020-nhl-draft-rankings/)

      I'll assume Edmonton finishes with the 23rd pick. They won't beat the Leafs in a 7-game series so they're limited to a second-round finish. Let's assume the Rangers implode and their second rounder is indeed #37.

      The value of Edmonton's pick is 13.01. The value of the two picks in the Detroit deal are 5.13 and 4.39 respectively. Very simple arithmetic dictates that the Oilers leave value equivalent to the #71 pick on the table.

      The Oilers, at this point, are in search of quantity. The Red Wings, entrenched with their rebuild, should be focusing on quality. I'm willing to take the loss on that value in order to accommodate that need. The Red Wings only stand to benefit, why be so obtuse about it?

      Demanding that Edmonton throws in Broberg is monumentally stupid and you should be ashamed of it. I'm fine with you having an opinion, but there's no basis supporting your argument nor the arrogance behind it. The Red Wings clearly get the better player and better value out of this trade. What's not to like?

      And for my own curiosity and because I know you'll object if I don't spell it out for you, the trade doesn't even break even in value until Edmonton has the #30 pick. Detroit wins this trade, or at least makes out even with fair value, up until the point Edmonton makes the Stanley Cup Finals.


      The answer is no since you reported me I'm now blocking you for being a 3 year old
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      17 mars 2021 à 15 h 48
      #16
      Buffbry
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      Quoting: Gregzky
      No one trades a top 15 pick for 2 2nds. that only happens with later 1st.



      Yeah and nobody trades 2 2nds prior to the draft for a first round pick that's undetermined at this time
      17 mars 2021 à 15 h 49
      #17
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      Quoting: buffbry
      The answer is no since you reported me I'm now blocking you for being a 3 year old


      I didn't bother reporting you, I just directly warned you. I explained very rationally why the value works and how adding Broberg is borderline trolling.

      Not sure you can ignore moderators. Good luck with it in any case.
      17 mars 2021 à 15 h 54
      #18
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      Quoting: buffbry
      Yeah and nobody trades 2 2nds prior to the draft for a first round pick that's undetermined at this time


      That is true, but this is just a fan site and not the NHL.
      17 mars 2021 à 15 h 56
      #19
      Buffbry
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      Quoting: Gregzky
      That is true, but this is just a fan site and not the NHL.


      Hence why I said this trade will not be made until draft position is known. That's all I was saying
      17 mars 2021 à 16 h 2
      #20
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      Quoting: BeterChiarelli
      You're upgrading a pick by an entire round. Stop being silly. Moving up 31 spots is worth more than the Rangers' pick.


      I don't think that is a very accurate either toward the end of the first round things start to get kind of muddy and with the amount of holes in Detroit's roster you could just as easily make a case for Detroit keeping the 2 picks over the 1 pick. If this happens it will be at the very last second when both teams have a better view of how things will play out. Either way it's a very interesting offer.
      17 mars 2021 à 16 h 5
      #21
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      Holloway would be on this roster by Christmas. There's little chance Kahun and Khaira can hold him back longer than that.
      17 mars 2021 à 16 h 8
      #22
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      This is probably the best BeterChiarelli post I've seen. Happy to see more people on board with signing Iaffolo and Glendening. Krejci would be a great 3C, I'd pay up for a guy like that too. Haula would be a good backup option, Danault if we can make the money work
      17 mars 2021 à 16 h 8
      #23
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      Quoting: aedoran
      I don't think that is a very accurate either toward the end of the first round things start to get kind of muddy and with the amount of holes in Detroit's roster you could just as easily make a case for Detroit keeping the 2 picks over the 1 pick. If this happens it will be at the very last second when both teams have a better view of how things will play out. Either way it's a very interesting offer.


      Please refer to the post where I actually run the numbers. The value Detroit pulls out of this swap alone makes it worthwhile. Edmonton leaves out an early third round pick worth's of value.

      And it's not like Detroit's rebuild is ending for another 3-4 years: having that extra first allows the Red Wings to automatically fill one of those gaps while focusing on the others in subsequent drafts. Second rounders are a much bigger crapshoot than a mid-first. At minimum, taking a player based on wants or needs at (approximately) 23rd at least limits how many UFAs have to be talked into playing for a rising Red Wings team. No guarantee with the internal options sure, but that's 2-3 years of having extra cash available.

      The whole thing cascades in favour of Detroit. It's a good trade, and the odds of Edmonton exceeding that benchmark of 23rd overall AND the Rangers plummeting to 37th overall are low. The relationship Holland has with the Red Wings suggests if there's interest in a trade like this, it gets done.
      17 mars 2021 à 16 h 11
      #24
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      Quoting: CD282
      Holloway would be on this roster by Christmas. There's little chance Kahun and Khaira can hold him back longer than that.


      That's fine. I'm just not into rushing him into the lineup.

      I do believe it'll be Khaira that probably takes a seat in favour of Holloway. Glendenning and Archibald make for a very strong top PK unit and Krejci is no slouch in that industry either.

      Quoting: McDavidFan97
      This is probably the best BeterChiarelli post I've seen. Happy to see more people on board with signing Iaffolo and Glendening. Krejci would be a great 3C, I'd pay up for a guy like that too. Haula would be a good backup option, Danault if we can make the money work


      Best you've seen so far.

      I see Haula as more of a winger long-term and Danault is not playing #3C any more. There'll be better money and better opportunities on the market: he'll be a very hot commodity once Eichel decides where he's playing next season.
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      17 mars 2021 à 16 h 17
      #25
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      Quoting: BeterChiarelli
      Please refer to the post where I actually run the numbers. The value Detroit pulls out of this swap alone makes it worthwhile. Edmonton leaves out an early third round pick worth's of value.

      And it's not like Detroit's rebuild is ending for another 3-4 years: having that extra first allows the Red Wings to automatically fill one of those gaps while focusing on the others in subsequent drafts. Second rounders are a much bigger crapshoot than a mid-first. At minimum, taking a player based on wants or needs at (approximately) 23rd at least limits how many UFAs have to be talked into playing for a rising Red Wings team. No guarantee with the internal options sure, but that's 2-3 years of having extra cash available.

      The whole thing cascades in favour of Detroit. It's a good trade, and the odds of Edmonton exceeding that benchmark of 23rd overall AND the Rangers plummeting to 37th overall are low. The relationship Holland has with the Red Wings suggests if there's interest in a trade like this, it gets done.


      I don't necessarily disagree with your math, but have you ever seen a pick swap like this happen outside draft day itself?
       
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