Stop making sense, Dubarelli already proved us idiots, fighting all those gloaters over months claiming how Nylander, Matthews and Marner will get more then they should.

Nylander : 61 + 61........................got him 6 x 7,2M ( 600k overpayment )

Matthews : 69 + 63 + "75".....got him 5 x 11,634 ( or in terms of McDavids contract lenght 8 x 15M, so 4M overpayment, ofc assuming hes on same gameplay level as McDavid )

Marner : 61 + 69 + "90"....actualy the only one who should demand more then was predicting he would sign at summer 2018 ( 8 x 9M was offered from his side, most of us were giving him 7 x 7M ), luckily for him he is riding with Elite Tavares to boost his numbers at wrong time.

Matthews played 1 pro season in Europe. You forgot to mention that.

What' a the "can afford" shouldn't be a factor. It's a player NHL value. So the should the Senators pay their best player 12.5m, because they can afford it?

Tired to say it many times, but why I think Marner's cap hit is bigger is because of taxes and whatnot. Colorado is much more tax friendly. Even if Marner's getting $10,366,000 as I predicted, it's still less than what Rantanen's gonna hold.

See here: https://gavingroup.ca/nhl-tax-calculator/

According to this, $10,366,000 in Toronto is roughly over $9M in Colorado.

In your case, it's about team building. With smaller teams, the reality is that their salary cap is lower than others in a manner of speaking.

$ 9.3 million for Marner, that was his Jr League jersey #. It is also a fair number for him.
Rantanen should make 10 +.
Laine 8-9.
Point will probably take less than Stamkos, so 8 ish.
Aho and Tkachuk both under 8

With current TML trend thats 4 years contract

I'd say 3 years, just to retain his RFA rights.
I also say Kapanen takes a bridge deal meanwhile Johnsson signs for 4-5 years to reach his UFA rights.

There’s a massive misconception that players like Rantanen and Aho will sign for almost nothing (7-8) and Marner will sign for almost twice that. Also, there is misconception that Point could take less because he knows the team’s cap situation. That’s totally wrong. A team will be payed what he thinks that he is worth. The Cap is set up based on that philosophy. I’ll break down the aforementioned players the best I can banking that all of them push for what they are worth.

Point: I hate blowing the taxes horn, but it’s honestly true - though not to the normally conceived extent. 15% is the difference between Florida and Ontario. I’m going to put him at 9.5x8 because Kucherov made the same off a 100 point year. Point isn’t Kucherov - maybe one day, but he’s massively benefitting from Kucherov’s dominant year and a loaded team. He’s still hugely valuable, but not more than Kucherov.

Rantanen: Honestly I haven’t heard a ton about his contract ballpark. There’s no Colorado contracts similar at all to him, but I’m going to have to say that he’s looking at players around the league and taking a Point comparable. 9.25x8 is my guess. Less than Point even though he almost equals him in points, but as a winger he’ll make less.

Aho: Easily the most underrated of the group, he’s a 90 point center on a middling team with bad teammates. Carolina doesn’t overpay guys, and they just gave a 60 point winger less than 6, so I trust that they’ll be good with negotiating Aho. The kid deserves a ton and he’s not making less than 9x8 which is my guess.

Marner: His contract comparable is unfortunately a luxurious Matthews deal, and on a Point deal he makes 11. He’s not a center, and though Toronto overpays RFAs and property, income, and sales taxes are high as well as the general cost of living, he still makes less than Point’s tax adjusted comparable. And he’s not Matthews. My honest guess is 10.5x6. I hate saying it, but Marner thinks he worth Matthews money. So Dubas will have to back off on the term.

Tkachuk: Slightly inflated by an incredible top six and PP, he’s not quite what the others are, and though he lives in Canada I’m still going to have to drop below 9 on him. He won’t destroy Gaudreau’s deal, so I’m going for a 7.75x6. He worth more and will be a 10 million guy after the 6 year deal. He goes close to 9 on an 8 year deal, but Calgary doesn’t overspend and gave Gaudreau an underwhelming contract after a similar year, so I think Tkachuk ups him. I could easily see a 8x6 though.

Laine: is a mess, but he shouldn’t be given up in yet. Winnipeg is in a huge cap crunch and can’t afford to dump a Johnsson/Kapanen/Miller/Gourde like other teams - they don’t really have any to trade - so Laine will have to be bridged. He’s also in Canada so a 8.5x3 looks good to me.

I’m sorry if this looks skewed against Marner, I just can’t help it TBH. The evidence is piled against Dubas and he likely gets 8 digits this year unless a bridge happens.

He did that predraft. I am comparing what they've done since being drafted...

Aho under 8? Wow

Lol I don't agree with the other guy saying 7 mill is the same as 10, that's ridiculous. But it does make a small difference, and every single dollar towards the cap is important I'm a finance major myself.

https://www.google.ca/amp/s/www.forbes.com/sites/kurtbadenhausen/2017/04/18/income-taxes-for-pro-athletes-are-reminder-of-how-complicated-u-s-tax-code/amp/

Some excerpts for you

"LeBron James was the highest-paid athlete in the U.S. last year with more than $80 million from salary and endorsements. King James will pay his fair share of taxes, but the level of complication for James and his financial team when they are filing is off the charts since he earned money in at least the 21 states where NBA teams are located."

Ie James has to pay taxes everywhere he's played

"Athletes file taxes not only in their home state but also in every state—and some cities—in which they play. "

The tax code is so convoluted between each city and state that all these calculators are so oversimplified to be almost useless. Some states give credits, some calculate by days work, some by games, some include preseason, some don't. Some literally treat different sports differently. Some probably also tax investments differently (which is damn important if these athletes are trying to set themselves up for the future).

Then remember that a lot of these people aren't citizens and may owe taxes to their home country too.

The situation is SO complicated and SO oversimplified by these ridiculous online calculators or statements by some person tv. You can't just toss the state tax rate in and conpare. You have to literally look at each schedule, calculate that, figure out where there offseason home is, see if it can or should be declared their permanent residence. Then consider tax implications of endorsements, of investments. Then see what kind of modifications can be done based on when you fly, when you enter what country, where you own property, what private corporations or holding companies you've created and so much more that is beyond me.

In the end it is true that the tax free states will save the players money on taxes. But the calculators and estimators tossed out there are almost always based on just comparing the marginal rate in max earning which is such a ridiculous over simplification and important exaggerated difference.

Thats the Jock tax bill, its a seperate tax but i guess you can lump it in. It doesnt apply to canadian cities and only certain states. This is why we need smaller government

No way marner gets under 10, Stone just signed 9.5 x8 in Vegas (Nevada Tax’s) you can bet Marner likes that contract as a direct comparison. Laine gets a lot less IMO then what people expect I’d be in the range of 2years x 6.5 AAV his defence needs work and his streaky scoring habits I think prohibit a lot of his value

So stone getting what he got should keep marners contract down. Stone is a UFA. Marner is a non arbitration eligible RFA. There is a big difference. Stone is also the best defensive winger in the game. Marner should make less than stone.

But again. Why just marner. What about Rantanen and point? Or aho?

If you are Dubas that’s your argument; I am just speaking on marners agent POV and claim to get the most out of his contract, I don’t see this being a quick an easy contract I can see this going into mid-late sept

IMO: Rantanen 10.5-11.25 AHO 9.25 & Point anywhere from 9.75-10.75

Jock tax is certainly applicable to any state with income tax. Also find it funny that no one mentions that signing bonuses are only taxed at 25% here in Canada...

Its applicable but ever state treats it different. Thats true, but then you have owners like Melnyk who hates signing bonuses lol

Really?

Realistically, there will be a some precedence set this year so no know really knows what will happen. Kane is the only 10M+ winger currently and he doesn't quite compare to the these guys at this moment. Point should be the highest paid player of the bunch because he is a center, which generally have garnered higher cap hits than wingers.

One thing is for sure though, I think it will all depend on who gets signed first. The first guy to sign will set the bar for each other guy in the list. So if Tkachuk for example signs for 7.5m (IMO), each guy will use that to make their case afterwards. If lets say Tkachuk gets 8.25M as mentioned above, expect everyone else on that list to hit 9.5M MINIMUM.

I agree with most of this but not sure what you have against kane. He's third in the league in points with 101. Well ahead of all of these guys