SalarySwishSalarySwish
Avatar

lrw2105

Membre depuis
12 juin 2021
Messages dans les forums
61
Messages par jour
0.1
Forum: Armchair-GM12 déc. 2022 à 15 h 54
Sujet: Horvat with extension
<div class="quote"><div class="quote_t">Quoting: <b>lrw2105</b></div><div>for col, horvat could only be a rental. also, if they trade their 23 1st, they won't have a draft pick in 2 drafts above a 5th - their pipeline is running dry, contenders rely on elc's overperforming to contend, and this is a fo that employs the analyst who wrote the studies on aging curves. doesn't make sense for col to trade the 23 1st (let alone a roster player on an elc who is playing decent but not so well so as to need a hefty next contract) for a player they can't re-sign. horvat to col trades would be more interesting if they addressed hovat's rental price or how an extended horvat could possibly fit in upcoming seasons ...

JToews a more likely col target if he is willing to wield his nmc to keep his price down.</div></div>

That's an excellent point you make. Good teams need to fill their roster with NHL capable ELCs...who can play above their contracts. Good teams are paying established so much of the cap, that the only way to be contending is having those low priced gems.
Forum: Armchair-GM28 juin 2022 à 11 h 19
Forum: Armchair-GM22 juin 2022 à 10 h 42
Sujet: Necas Girard
<div class="quote"><div class="quote_t">Quoting: <b>lrw2105</b></div><div>Sometimes it can make sense to overpay, esp. for contenders - Tampa for Goodrow, Coleman, Hagel; COL for Kuemper (if he can get it back together for the rest of the scf). Not sure tho, if/when CAR will do so ... wonder tho if it might make sense so for a goal-scorer this offseason ...

Brannstrom or Ty Smith could be a buy low PMD candidates for CAR, tho maybe they'd want someone proven at this stage of contention window.
EDIT - these wouldn't be for Necas - more underperforming young defense that i could see CAR buying low on

Necas (and Gurianov, Comtois) might look great in COL's system - but the team doesn't really have the trade chips for under performing former bluechippers that they used to have ...</div></div>

Yeah, I was really surprised to hear Necas potentially being moved for a D. I'd rather run it back w/ TDA at least on a 1 year deal around $4-5m which gets him to UFA next year and focus on top 6 goal scoring like you mentioned. That's the biggest glaring need for our team. Guys like Debrincat, Pasta, Forsberg, etc. fit the bill but don't necessarily jive with how CAR FO does business. I've always said their FO should alter their strategy as we got into true contender status from where we were a few years ago because needs change and now the goal should be to win a cup even if it means giving up some nice future pieces.
Forum: Armchair-GM22 juin 2022 à 10 h 8
Sujet: Necas Girard
<div class="quote"><div class="quote_t">Quoting: <b>lrw2105</b></div><div>Think COL would only move Girard this offseason for quite an overpay, so the plus to Necas would need to be significantly more than a second rounder, and CAR's FO isn't into overpaying. If the cost weren't an overpay, it would be for a Girard-esque player (young, proven NHL'er, good contract for years to come) who can be a more reliable 2C than COL's current, non-Kadri options.</div></div>

Yep - that's fair. Girard on his contract is super valuable so understand why it would require an overpay. This was more driven off of Lebrun's report and me trying to brainstorm who those young D could be that moved the needle if we were to trade Necas.

Trade aside - Necas in COL system with their skill &amp; speed would probably be amazing. I'd hate to lose him because I think he probably thrives wherever he ends up going but that would be something to see. Think he fits their system perfectly.
Forum: Armchair-GM12 mars 2022 à 8 h 19
Sujet: Canes head of scouting at CBJ game
<div class="quote"><div class="quote_t">Quoting: <b>lrw2105</b></div><div>Gavrikov, his play and contract term and aav, would be an excellent fit on a contender. However, CBJ values him tremendously and they are keeping quality vets who want to be there as they rebuild. Do not think they would move him except for a significant overpay such as 1st + or bluechip prospect+, which Suzuki and Bokk are generally not considered to be right now. This trade makes sense in terms of Gavrikov's de-contextualized value, but not in terms of his value to CBJ.</div></div>
Yep. We'd want more and better. It boils down to the fact that Gavrikov is our best defensive D (and, outside of a still-developing Peeke, arguably our <strong>only</strong> one), so we can't afford to lose him unless we're getting something really special back.
Forum: Armchair-GM7 mars 2022 à 18 h 48
Sujet: We should consider a 1 year deal for Anton Forsberg and a buyout for Matt Murray
<div class="quote"><div class="quote_t">Quoting: <b>lrw2105</b></div><div>Wouldn't Forsberg have leverage for more? have heard that the Brassoit contract is his comparable</div></div>

Forsberg has never received an extension that is either more than 2 years long or that is worth 1 million per year..

Throughout his career, his goaltending has been rather inconsistent and he has often found himself either on waivers or in the AHL.



If a player is at his best with one team but not any other, it severely limits whatever leverage he might have.

Ryan Dzingel is one example of this and I'm inclined to think that Forsberg is another.

I'd be rather surprised if Forsberg got something like what Brossoit got with Vegas.
Forum: Armchair-GM27 févr. 2022 à 10 h 0
Sujet: Claude Giroux
<div class="quote"><div class="quote_t">Quoting: <b>lrw2105</b></div><div>Think this is exactly what PHI wants for Giroux, but unless there is a bidding war (and COL seems to be the Western conference contender w/need for a high-end playmaking winger - MIN needs a center and STL defense), think the formula might be that PHI gets their choice of 2023 1st/Barron/Jost, not all three. Also wonder if Sakic would even be up for a bidding war. He usually drops out, except for Kuemper, which might signal that he is this season ...



w/o a bidding war, the other players/assets might then alter in value based on PHI's initial choice:
23 2nd + Helleson + Jost
23 1st + Kaut/Ranta + Compher
Barron + Bowers + Murray

At this price, if the fit's right, wonder if COL would think abt offering Giroux the Pavelski contract (3x7) while letting Kadri and Burakovsky walk in the offseason.</div></div>

Not sure if the Avs could afford to do it even with not signing Bura &amp; Kadri with the contracts due to come but might be possible. Nichushkin - Newhook - Giroux wouldn't be a bad second line and CG could certainly help take some pressure off Newhook.
Forum: Armchair-GM6 févr. 2022 à 16 h 39
Sujet: Anaheim one-stop-shop
<div class="quote"><div class="quote_t">Quoting: <b>lrw2105</b></div><div>How teams value/evaluate other teams' prospects is interesting and difficult to gauge. Heard rumors that ANA is higher on Kaut than is COL. Would think Beaucage might have more value to a team that plays w/less than COL.</div></div>

Yeah I wouldn't be surprised if Anaheim like Kaut, his best comparable in the NHL has always been Silfverberg imo who has done very well there. Kaut plays a very similar heavy two-way game as a complementary forward on a line and would fit Anaheim's style well.

Colorado are probably best off holding onto Beaucage and seeing if he can hit another level in the AHL over the course of the next 1-2 years or so. He's on an ELC until 2024 so they've got time to be patient. But long-term I don't see him being a fit for the style Colorado play, he'll probably end up being a trade-chip if he does well.
Forum: Armchair-GM26 janv. 2022 à 17 h 24
Sujet: Rebuild TDL
The Pens trade is interesting, but here's a few things...

1) Hextall has been adamant that he's not moving the Pens' 1st or 2nd picks, so if he somehow softened on the 2nd I think it would be for a bigger deal than this.
2) I think that's a tad too much for Kubalik. The shine has worn off on him a bit, so I'm not saying he doesn't get you a 2nd, but I don't know that every team would do that.
3) The Pens can't afford the deal as-is since they have no cap space. They have zero cap space and even with the mid-season proration you'd need to either retain and/or take some back.

I'd say the best the Pens can probably offer is a 3rd, Aston-Reese + prospect. Something along those lines, which is not an attempt to low-ball. It's just a reality of the Pens situation and what Hextall would likely give up.
Forum: Armchair-GM9 janv. 2022 à 16 h 27
Sujet: Cap-testing
<div class="quote"><div class="quote_t">Quoting: <b>lrw2105</b></div><div>Based on Montreal-based writers (Basu, Godin, LeBrun) Price at 50% retained seems to be attractive to contenders, and the names that keep coming up are COL and EDM. Price seems to want out, with a rebuild on the horizon, Bergavin gone, and his willingness to waive for expansion, and seeing how Gorton treated Lundqvist at the end. Since PLB is one of the few insiderzzz that Sakic talks to, COL has no NHL roster goalie's signed for next year, and the team for all their extremely smart analytical moves (Toews, Nichushkin, Burakovsky, Girard) has a streak of old school hockey in their decision-making (MacDermid) their could conceivably be a fit there, in spite of most most of the unlikely agms, there might be something to SevenLeg 's thought experiment ... GMs do love Price, esp. after the last play-off run, even if I'm in agreement with xqb15a and coga16 that based on his last several regular seasons, injury history, and current health difficulties, COL shouldn't take the risk.

General thoughts:
1. This would have to be an off-season trade, as Price would have to 'prove' mental and physical health by playing games this season.
2. 50% for 4 years is A LOT to retain even for a rebuilding team with deep pockets, and MON would much prefer to take bad money back instead. Thing is, COL doesn't really have any - EJohnson's contract isn't long enough, he is valued so highly by the org for whom he just did a solid waiving his NMC for expansion, and he has a modified NTC which most likely has all Canadian teams on it. This makes EDM a more likely partner than COL, if MON took on some combination of Smith, Ceci, Barrie, Klefbom.
3. COL's cap structure means that they don't want to pay more than 5.5 for a starter - why they wouldn't bring back Grubauer. It's hard to get a starter for that, but Price at 50% fits. COL is a very disciplined abt cap structure and isn't willing to deviate until they get MacK re-signed. However, Kuemper isn't yet playing himself into more than a 5.5 contract, and the team had wanted him for awhile and paid a lot to get him. Francouz is looking good (and before he got hurt 2 seasons ago was challenging Grubauer for the starter role), has an opportunity this season to demonstrate health and reliability, and wouldn't be due a large contract next year because he's been out for so long. Depending on how the season and play-offs go, one of them could be well positioned to be the starter for the next several years at a price point that fits COL's cap structure. There is the 'COL effect' of how goalies look behind the team, front offices are noticing the difference between Grubauer from COL-&gt;SEA, and COL doesn't want to pay for this glow up.
4. COL don't have LTI contracts to shift, which MON would want since they will be in LTI for a while with Weber - depending on Klefbom's status, EDM might.
5. Price ages 35-39 at 5.25mil for 4 years with an NMC and an un-buyout-able contract is a big risk - with it looking likely that games in Canada may end up having to be played w/o gate revenue, the cap won't rise as quickly as the league seemed to think in the autumn. His contract is also signing bonus heavy, something COL's ownership doesn't like. If by season's end one of Kuemper or Francouz look like a reliable starter for less than 5.25x4, then COL is in a position to be choosy.
6. Price has to want out for the trade to happen, and Gorton/Molson/MON have to REALLY want him out in order to retain so much for so long. Moving Price would be a signature move of the new regime, and I think it would be hard for them to do PR wise w/o getting back what looks like a prime return, and based on the above, I don't think COL would be willing to give that.

TLDR - a COL-MON Price trade might be somewhat conceivable, but probably not on terms that most MON fans would like.</div></div>

That was a thoughtful and well nuanced post. Thanks for this read. The trade above was just a cap experiment to prove a point, I'm not saying this should be a move COL 100% make but I'm willing to die on the hill that Price at 50% is a valuable piece.
Forum: Armchair-GM24 juin 2021 à 15 h 20
Sujet: Jack to the Canes
<div class="quote"><div class="quote_t">Quoting: <b>lrw2105</b></div><div>Thanks! You're probably right w/r/t to Necas - or you should be right, though I wonder if MN is valued more by CAR than league-wide ... Beyond MN's value to CAR, I just couldn't see how the cap would work w/o shifting more, and some of that cap from BUF's perspective should need to come from a valuable player like Trocheck in order not to be offset with more picks. Do wonder if another pick/prospect would need to be added to balance for Gardiner.</div></div>

Wouldn’t be surprised is CAR valued Necas more than across the league. When watching him play you can easily see super star attributes if he continues to develop and he’s team controlled for a long time which is very important. Hard to part with him even if you may be getting back a better players bc of his team control and potentially lighter cap hit down the road.

In terms of Gardiner, he’ll likely be LTIR next season based on recent comments suggesting another back surgery is in his future. If that’s the case the Canes don’t need to offset any cap space or sweeten the pot for BUF to take him.
Forum: Armchair-GM24 juin 2021 à 14 h 55
Sujet: Jack to the Canes
Very well thought out and done, good work. Few thoughts.

Would prefer to move on from McGinn (or move Fast) and use that money plus some cap space to target somebody with more offensive upside (Tatar seemingly would be a good fit with his style of play and analytics that the Canes would love or somebody else in the 3-3.5M range on a shorter term deal like Hoffman, Granlund, etc).

Would also want an improvement on the bottom pair - couple ways to make this happen. Slot Bean up to second pair playing with Pesce and hope that he continues to develop both physically and mentally. Move Skjei for picks and use the cap space to get somebody like Oleksiak and a better RD than Hakanpaa (Hjalm, Mike Reilly, Osterle, Bogosian, etc.)

Still think BUF ultimately wants Necas as part of the deal which if that’s the case is too rich for me personally. Would also rather keep Jarvis and send Suzuki but would be fine with either if this is the deal.