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lrw2105

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Forum: Armchair-GM13 mars à 3 h 43
Sujet: Marino
<div class="quote"><div class="quote_t">Quoting: <b>Mr_Gardoki</b></div><div>If the Pens were able to line up a good replacement for Marino then I'd strongly consider this.</div></div>

<div class="quote"><div class="quote_t">Quoting: <b>Mr_Gardoki</b></div><div>I think instead of him, maybe upping the quality of the other prospect. I looked him up and while he's a decent goalie prospect, the Pens have three good ones in the system already in Lindberg, Clang and Blomqvist.</div></div>

<div class="quote"><div class="quote_t">Quoting: <b>Mr_Gardoki</b></div><div>I think it's more than likely Pettersson they're considering moving since the Pens have a glut of LHDs.</div></div>

This is an interesting trade, and some good responses to it. While w/the glut on LD, def seems more likely PIT would prefer to move Pettersson (to DET maybe?), they'd get more for Marino and it seems that current management is lower on Marino than Rutherford was, w/all the leaking abt his family being too involved to the athletic awhile ago, etc. Think the value - interesting young roster player + 1st (and potentially a mid-range one) + good prospect (Portillo seems well respected in goalie circles, more so than PIT's current goalie prospects) + clearing some cap - is vry good. Issue is, PIT needs RD almost as much as BUF, so they would need to either get one back (what's the RD situation w/BUF's deep prospect pool?) or figure out their top 4 (sign Letang, line up a top 2RD) before making this move.
Forum: Armchair-GM8 mars à 4 h 56
Sujet: Byram to Vancouver
<div class="quote"><div class="quote_t">Quoting: <b>mv21227</b></div><div>So what would you say a PPG player who is top 15 in points over the last 3 seasons, plays C and Wing at an elite level, plays special teams, and has a great contract for this season and next is worth?</div></div>

Thinking through comparable trades - the Jason Zucker trade seems closest? - 1st, good but not bluechip prospect, usable but meh roster player to make cap work.
At the time Zucker was deemed to be a better player than he is now, signed to a value contract for 3 playoff runs, and Rutherford *really* wanted him. His lesser career point production and positional flexibility offset by increased term. That the trade did not work great for PIT, and how having Addison right now as a RD on an ELC would have more value to a playoff team, is part of why this is a tricky trade for a contender to make.

Other comparables, Palat last year, Teräväinen next year did not/are unlikely to reach the market.
Forum: Armchair-GM8 mars à 2 h 36
Sujet: 1 step back 2 steps forward
<div class="quote"><div class="quote_t">Quoting: <b>fckmattcooke</b></div><div>To be honest I see where you're coming from, but you have to take Byram out of the deal with no replacement. Barron, Jost, 1st is a very solid package for Miller. Avs could add a pick or a prospect for Motte</div></div>

Yes. That this doesn't seem to suit VAN's needs, means there is probably not a deal between teams.

<div class="quote"><div class="quote_t">Quoting: <b>BeautifulIdiot</b></div><div>ok I changed it up a little bit, took out the first. The thing is, teams will have to overpay for miller because of the unique situation that the canucks are in if they decide to move him. The only thing that Allvin would concider would be a deal that includes byram</div></div>

The Byram noise is coming from VAN, making it appear that the onus would be on VAN to overpay for Byram if that is who they really really want, rather than COL for Miller. This sentence could be switched and it then it would make sense from a COL perspective: 'teams will have to overpay for Byram because of the unique situation COL is in if they decide to move him. The only thing that Sakic would consider would be a deal that includes Pettersson.' And VAN fans would respond to this the way COL watchers are responding to the Byram noise.

Crucially, it doesn't make sense for COL to move Byram - young, cost controlled, top D prospect, going through difficulties so that trading him would be disrespectful (something Sakic doesn't do) and selling low (another thing Sakic doesn't do). COL's window/cap structure is bracketed by Rantanen's contract, not MacKinnon's current deal as they've already costed that extension in their plans, something most commentators don't seem to realize. If they perceived their window as MacK's current deal, they would have bridged Makar so as to have more cap right now.
Forum: Armchair-GM5 mars à 9 h 29
Sujet: ANH deadline
<div class="quote"><div class="quote_t">Quoting: <b>GeneralLandro</b></div><div>Take Comtois out of the STL trade, he isn’t going anywhere

Getzlaf is not going to be traded so let’s get rid of that trade as well</div></div>

Could see ANA trading Comtois in the offseason for another young change-of-scenery candidate based on the athletic's reporting, but wouldn't do that if i were ANA. But not as part of a deadline deal

Could see Lindholm to be a bidding war between STL, TOR, and FL if ANA can't re-sign him, in which his price as a rental w/retention would be 1st (or equivalent) + good prospect + what's needed to make cap work. think the prospect would need to be better than Klostin.

Getzlaf has said he doesn't have the personality to emulate Perry, think he stays put.
Forum: Armchair-GM5 mars à 9 h 22
Sujet: Is the value right
<div class="quote"><div class="quote_t">Quoting: <b>jpsnow13</b></div><div>If a team has no interest to trade for a UFA, then his value is zero. Needs creates value, it doesn't exist whatever the identity of the buying team.</div></div>

This.

Need + value are inextricably linked, so the q of Chariot's value to CBJ isn't answerable because that team doesn't need him.

Texier + Peake have value to MON because MON needs good players in their age bracket, but so does CBJ so it is doubtful that these teams are well matched as trade partners.

Could see CBJ aiming to sell high on some of their youngsters (like Texier), but that would be for picks/prospects/young players, which is what MON also wants to accumulate. Texier to a contender who values his skill set + cheap contract for a 2nd and B+ prospect at a position of need I could see as his value, tho would think CBJ would want more. Peake prob has more value to CBJ than on the market, making him not a good trade target.
Forum: Armchair-GM1 mars à 9 h 16
Sujet: Giroux and Domi
<div class="quote"><div class="quote_t">Quoting: <b>RonaldBilius</b></div><div>cbj wants picks or prospects</div></div>

That makes sense from CBJ's prospective. Isn't Domi tho UFA in the offseason, so their chance to get assets for him is pretty much the deadline? Which contenders would have interest in Domi, and the cap space or an expiring contract that they could send back? Wonder, if Domi isn't as desirable a prospective playoff run player as Savard or Foligno last deadline, a pure picks/prospects trade might not be as feasible.

<div class="quote"><div class="quote_t">Quoting: <b>Richard88</b></div><div>Olausson is definitely too rich for a rental. He's a recently drafted 1st rounder who the Avs were elated to pick when he fell to them as they had him much higher in the rankings than where they got him (according to both Sakic and the head scout Klippenstein in video interviews post-draft). He's also having a great season this year so his stock has improved. Avs are also short on forward prospects with legit top 6 potential so it's a non-starter; they'd probably sooner trade one of Barron or Helleson than Olausson simply due to positional needs in the organization.</div></div>

It's hard to gauge Domi's value right now, esp the difference between as a playoff rental versus a team that wants to sign him in the offseason (what would his next contract be? comparables?) But seems like those interested might be interested because of the potential to buy low ... tho Kekalainen is a tough negotiator. Have he and Sakic traded recently? feels like most of COL's CBJ alums were walking/were on a different team when acquired.
Forum: Armchair-GM27 févr. à 5 h 31
Sujet: Claude Giroux
<div class="quote"><div class="quote_t">Quoting: <b>B_seka17</b></div><div>Flyers accept, I think this is exactly what the Flyers would want for G</div></div>

Think this is exactly what PHI wants for Giroux, but unless there is a bidding war (and COL seems to be the Western conference contender w/need for a high-end playmaking winger - MIN needs a center and STL defense), think the formula might be that PHI gets their choice of 2023 1st/Barron/Jost, not all three. Also wonder if Sakic would even be up for a bidding war. He usually drops out, except for Kuemper, which might signal that he is this season ...

<div class="quote"><div class="quote_t">Quoting: <b>TJTwolf</b></div><div>Switch Barron for Ranta and Jost for Compher and the Avs accept.</div></div>

w/o a bidding war, the other players/assets might then alter in value based on PHI's initial choice:
23 2nd + Helleson + Jost
23 1st + Kaut/Ranta + Compher
Barron + Bowers + Murray

At this price, if the fit's right, wonder if COL would think abt offering Giroux the Pavelski contract (3x7) while letting Kadri and Burakovsky walk in the offseason.
Forum: Armchair-GM6 févr. à 16 h 26
Sujet: Anaheim one-stop-shop
<div class="quote"><div class="quote_t">Quoting: <b>Richard88</b></div><div>Thanks for your rebuttal :)

Makes sense re: the 'value of a 1st'. I guess it would depend on how another organization would value a prospect. For example, Arizona valued Timmins highly due to Alan Hepple (Avs former head scout) having joined Arizona, so the Avs offer of 1st + Timmins carried more weight than what Edmonton could offer.

Yes I do see the funny side with what you're saying. My point was simply that contenders as a whole are missing a few 1sts (these belong to non-playoff teams) which reduces the supply in the market overall, which will make 1st's in general carry more value. But yes of course any other team could trade a 2023 1st as well.

As for your last point, I guess we'll find out :)</div></div>

How teams value/evaluate other teams' prospects is interesting and difficult to gauge. Heard rumors that ANA is higher on Kaut than is COL. Would think Beaucage might have more value to a team that plays w/less than COL.
Forum: Armchair-GM26 janv. à 17 h 20
Sujet: Realistic miller trades
Don't think MIN is a good trade partner w/their cap situation next season, lack of RD prospects available, and Miller being a better W than C. Perhaps 1st, Greenway, choice of O'Rourke/Lambos/Hunt, but think VAN wants a better package.

COL might do 1st, Barron, roster player (Jost or Compher) but probably only if Miller were significantly retained.

NYR has a polarized history w/Miller, but the rumors are out there. Schneider off the table I'd think, but 1st, Lundquist, Chytil is good value. Not sure how much value Kravtsov has these days.

Think VAN would want an RD prospect of the Barron/Schneider/Lundquist calibre as the centerpiece, and the other parts are less important, so it might come down to who has the RD prospect VAN is highest on who is willing to move them ...
Forum: Armchair-GM26 janv. à 13 h 52
Sujet: Fix the PK
<div class="quote"><div class="quote_t">Quoting: <b>Bdawwwgy1</b></div><div>Cbj ain't doing that.</div></div>

<div class="quote"><div class="quote_t">Quoting: <b>The_Cannon</b></div><div>Not enough for cbj to take that.</div></div>

<div class="quote"><div class="quote_t">Quoting: <b>Mergus80</b></div><div>From the Avs perspective, hell yes. A young forward who fits their identity plus an underrated shutdown D on a nice contract sounds great to me.

I don’t think Columbus is interested in moving those guys though. Texier is somehow still only 22, even though it feels like he’s been around for a while. I would imagine he’s in their long term plans. Maybe they sell high on Gavrokiv with an extra year left on his deal (like Coleman/Goodrow as you mentioned).

I would be interested in Max Domi if he’s available. He’s popped up in Avs rumors for a few years, when he was with Arizona and Montreal. Good skater, positional versatility, fits Colorado’s style, and would bring a combo of skill and grit to the middle six.</div></div>

<div class="quote"><div class="quote_t">Quoting: <b>Viqsi</b></div><div>That's two young players we can't really afford to give up and in fact need more of, and you're trying to get them at a discount? Hell no.</div></div>

Don't think Domi is the type that would be of interest to COL - think they either want a top 6 versatile, cup hungry vet who's team is willing to do him a favor (aka Giroux) or do a trade like this for high quality, cost controlled depth whose contracts match the MacKinnon contract window.

Could only see CBJ trading 2 players they want to keep, but may not be considered integral pieces of the future and therefore pry-able, for a significant overpay. Perhaps get rid of retention on Texier and add Behrens to the package offered? Feels like CBJ's prospect D pool might be stronger on RD than LD? For a rebuilding team, the 2023 1st (esp. if only minimally/or not at all protected) might have more value than usual a year out 'cause 23 is supposed to be a deep draft and the last couple of drafts have had COVID scouting difficulties. Have heard rumors of some rebuilding teams wanting 23 1sts over 22sts, and also that CBJ coaching staff likes Compher. It all comes down to when CBJ feels their window will be, and how they plot it in relation to PIT, WSH, NYI's expected declines in the Metro. Ranta and Helleson would probably be on the table for COL for such a trade, but most likely not Barron, who looks like he may well be a contributor for the next two playoff runs.
Forum: Armchair-GM14 janv. à 15 h 52
Sujet: If JBB goes for JK
<div class="quote"><div class="quote_t">Quoting: <b>Lancebmx</b></div><div>I think you would need to send more to Detroit to make that worth while for us. Joseph is a nice player and I like him but he's a bottom 6 guy, I don't think he holds a ton of value. If you were to swap that prospect for Finley it might be more worth while. Retaining on both those deals will really limit the return we can get on Leddy. I'm sure Detroit could find a trade partner for namestnikov without retention if they decide they want to trade him.</div></div>

<div class="quote"><div class="quote_t">Quoting: <b>SlevinKalevra</b></div><div>Dallas part looks okay. I think you’re over valuing Joseph a little on the Detroit part</div></div>

Yeah, think MJoseph is worth more to TBL than to DET, making the value out of synch for the trade. DET probably looking for a 3rd for Namestnikov, a 4th for 25% retention on Klingberg (if that is what is meant in the agm), something else for retention on VK, and a willingness to take on another contract if necessary for contract numbers.
Forum: Armchair-GM9 janv. à 16 h 23
Sujet: Cap-testing
Based on Montreal-based writers (Basu, Godin, LeBrun) Price at 50% retained seems to be attractive to contenders, and the names that keep coming up are COL and EDM. Price seems to want out, with a rebuild on the horizon, Bergavin gone, and his willingness to waive for expansion, and seeing how Gorton treated Lundqvist at the end. Since PLB is one of the few insiderzzz that Sakic talks to, COL has no NHL roster goalie's signed for next year, and the team for all their extremely smart analytical moves (Toews, Nichushkin, Burakovsky, Girard) has a streak of old school hockey in their decision-making (MacDermid) their could conceivably be a fit there, in spite of most most of the unlikely agms, there might be something to <a href="/users/SevenLeg" target="_blank" rel="noreferrer noopener">@SevenLeg</a> 's thought experiment ... GMs do love Price, esp. after the last play-off run, even if I'm in agreement with <a href="/users/xqb15a" target="_blank" rel="noreferrer noopener">@xqb15a</a> and <a href="/users/coga16" target="_blank" rel="noreferrer noopener">@coga16</a> that based on his last several regular seasons, injury history, and current health difficulties, COL shouldn't take the risk.

General thoughts:
1. This would have to be an off-season trade, as Price would have to 'prove' mental and physical health by playing games this season.
2. 50% for 4 years is A LOT to retain even for a rebuilding team with deep pockets, and MON would much prefer to take bad money back instead. Thing is, COL doesn't really have any - EJohnson's contract isn't long enough, he is valued so highly by the org for whom he just did a solid waiving his NMC for expansion, and he has a modified NTC which most likely has all Canadian teams on it. This makes EDM a more likely partner than COL, if MON took on some combination of Smith, Ceci, Barrie, Klefbom.
3. COL's cap structure means that they don't want to pay more than 5.5 for a starter - why they wouldn't bring back Grubauer. It's hard to get a starter for that, but Price at 50% fits. COL is a very disciplined abt cap structure and isn't willing to deviate until they get MacK re-signed. However, Kuemper isn't yet playing himself into more than a 5.5 contract, and the team had wanted him for awhile and paid a lot to get him. Francouz is looking good (and before he got hurt 2 seasons ago was challenging Grubauer for the starter role), has an opportunity this season to demonstrate health and reliability, and wouldn't be due a large contract next year because he's been out for so long. Depending on how the season and play-offs go, one of them could be well positioned to be the starter for the next several years at a price point that fits COL's cap structure. There is the 'COL effect' of how goalies look behind the team, front offices are noticing the difference between Grubauer from COL-&gt;SEA, and COL doesn't want to pay for this glow up.
4. COL don't have LTI contracts to shift, which MON would want since they will be in LTI for a while with Weber - depending on Klefbom's status, EDM might.
5. Price ages 35-39 at 5.25mil for 4 years with an NMC and an un-buyout-able contract is a big risk - with it looking likely that games in Canada may end up having to be played w/o gate revenue, the cap won't rise as quickly as the league seemed to think in the autumn. His contract is also signing bonus heavy, something COL's ownership doesn't like. If by season's end one of Kuemper or Francouz look like a reliable starter for less than 5.25x4, then COL is in a position to be choosy.
6. Price has to want out for the trade to happen, and Gorton/Molson/MON have to REALLY want him out in order to retain so much for so long. Moving Price would be a signature move of the new regime, and I think it would be hard for them to do PR wise w/o getting back what looks like a prime return, and based on the above, I don't think COL would be willing to give that.

TLDR - a COL-MON Price trade might be somewhat conceivable, but probably not on terms that most MON fans would like.
Forum: Armchair-GM1 déc. 2021 à 8 h 12
Sujet: Taking Next Step
For COL, think a trade conversation would begin w/a young, proven top six winger (i.e. fwd version of Girard), and then the difference in contracts made up by prospects - i.e. begin w/a vaccinated Bertuzzi or healthy Vrana and then make up the contract differences. on the winged wheel podcast, they had initially thought DET could buy low on Girard and were excited, then they talked with industry folks who said Bertuzzi + ... and they became much less excited.

<div class="quote"><div class="quote_t">Quoting: <b>mauston_atthews</b></div><div>I disagree. I don’t think the Avs should trade girard at all, he can play the right and leddy for a year is ok, veleno is alright but has no immediate spot in the Avs lineup, and fabbri doesn’t really fit either. It’s not enough for a defenceman who is a great puckmover, who can play both sides on an amazing contract</div></div>

<div class="quote"><div class="quote_t">Quoting: <b>Radu47</b></div><div>I think this Girard trade is one of the best trades I've seen on here in a while it's a perfect fit for both teams and reasonable value, here's a trophy 4U 🏆</div></div>
Forum: Armchair-GM6 nov. 2021 à 12 h 42
Sujet: What do you Avs fans want for Samuel Girard
<div class="quote"><div class="quote_t">Quoting: <b>Isles10</b></div><div>A 30-point d-man is rough considering he had 32 points in 48 games with Colorado last year playing second pp. The difference in the Jones trade would be that Girard’s actually elite for real lol, for years to come with a steal of a contract. Colorado doesn’t necessarily have to get the player to replace Girard with, from us. It gives them a lot of tradeable assets in another deal + capspace. They have Makar, Toews, Byram (break out year?), E. Johnson, Murray, MacDonald. If they want to upgrade their forward depth to balance the roster more, it would be wise to consider moving one of their d for a large package.</div></div>

<div class="quote"><div class="quote_t">Quoting: <b>DirtyDangle</b></div><div>a young top 6 winger locked up long term would be ideal.</div></div>

something along the lines of a Beauvillier or Sorokin, which NYI would not do. COL, in win-now (like NYI) mode, unlikely to move Girard for a picks/prospects package unless it were a significant overpay that included a high first or bluechip prospect, which I don't think NYI has. Otherwise, they'd probably want similar age/talent/contract at more of a position of need . Have wondered since LA is in the hunt for top LD, if they might be willing to overpay from their bluechip prospect stock, but seems like they are waiting to pry Sanheim out of PHI.

NYI could wait to trade back for Towes in 2023 when COL has to pay Byram's raise.
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