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lrw2105

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Forum: Armchair-GM12 déc. 2022 à 18 h 4
Sujet: Horvat Most Sensible
<div class="quote"><div class="quote_t">Quoting: <b>coga16</b></div><div>they are not trading all that for a rental, this is an easy no</div></div>

<div class="quote"><div class="quote_t">Quoting: <b>Xqb15a</b></div><div>COL usually doesn’t chase expensive rentals, see last year. Horvat rental comp is Giroux, maybe, and that was a fraction of this. This is bad for COL on every level</div></div>

yes, regarding col, horvat is a rental - which is not the OP's trade - but is the more sensible conversation - what would that value be w/giroux as a comp? (tho horvat has no trade protection) ... whether or not col would do that ... am doubtful. on the one hand, the last year of the MacK 6.3 deal (and PLB who is one of the more clued into col's fo has been beating this drum), on the other, so few assets in the pipeline already ... col has a smart-patient fo, rarely trades firsts unless backed against the wall, and made a point of not chasing rentals last year as you mention ...
Forum: Armchair-GM12 déc. 2022 à 16 h 19
Sujet: Horvat Most Sensible
<div class="quote"><div class="quote_t">Quoting: <b>Android_H_Jones</b></div><div>These Horvat to Colorado trades always make sense for Vancouver, never for Colorado.</div></div>

<div class="quote"><div class="quote_t">Quoting: <b>Xqb15a</b></div><div>So the most sensible move is for COL to trade their top forward prospect, top d prospect and there only pick in the first 5 rounds of two drafts for a guy they have zero chance of re-signing because the cap you know exists. COL isn’t doing that.</div></div>

<div class="quote"><div class="quote_t">Quoting: <b>coga16</b></div><div>Not the avs. They aren’t moving their best prospects for a for they can’t sign</div></div>

For col, horvat would be a rental. these discussions make more sense if there is a distinction between horvat's rental v. extension potential trade price, and distinction between the teams that would be interested in horvat as a rental v. w/an extension.
Forum: Armchair-GM22 juin 2022 à 10 h 37
Sujet: Necas Girard
<div class="quote"><div class="quote_t">Quoting: <b>vikhodush</b></div><div>Yep - that's fair. Girard on his contract is super valuable so understand why it would require an overpay. This was more driven off of Lebrun's report and me trying to brainstorm who those young D could be that moved the needle if we were to trade Necas.

Trade aside - Necas in COL system with their skill &amp; speed would probably be amazing. I'd hate to lose him because I think he probably thrives wherever he ends up going but that would be something to see. Think he fits their system perfectly.</div></div>

Sometimes it can make sense to overpay, esp. for contenders - Tampa for Goodrow, Coleman, Hagel; COL for Kuemper (if he can get it back together for the rest of the scf). Not sure tho, if/when CAR will do so ... wonder tho if it might make sense so for a goal-scorer this offseason ...

Brannstrom or Ty Smith could be a buy low PMD candidates for CAR, tho maybe they'd want someone proven at this stage of contention window.
EDIT - these wouldn't be for Necas - more underperforming young defense that i could see CAR buying low on

Necas (and Gurianov, Comtois) might look great in COL's system - but the team doesn't really have the trade chips for under performing former bluechippers that they used to have ...
Forum: Armchair-GM13 mars 2022 à 3 h 43
Sujet: Marino
<div class="quote"><div class="quote_t">Quoting: <b>Mr_Gardoki</b></div><div>If the Pens were able to line up a good replacement for Marino then I'd strongly consider this.</div></div>

<div class="quote"><div class="quote_t">Quoting: <b>Mr_Gardoki</b></div><div>I think instead of him, maybe upping the quality of the other prospect. I looked him up and while he's a decent goalie prospect, the Pens have three good ones in the system already in Lindberg, Clang and Blomqvist.</div></div>

<div class="quote"><div class="quote_t">Quoting: <b>Mr_Gardoki</b></div><div>I think it's more than likely Pettersson they're considering moving since the Pens have a glut of LHDs.</div></div>

This is an interesting trade, and some good responses to it. While w/the glut on LD, def seems more likely PIT would prefer to move Pettersson (to DET maybe?), they'd get more for Marino and it seems that current management is lower on Marino than Rutherford was, w/all the leaking abt his family being too involved to the athletic awhile ago, etc. Think the value - interesting young roster player + 1st (and potentially a mid-range one) + good prospect (Portillo seems well respected in goalie circles, more so than PIT's current goalie prospects) + clearing some cap - is vry good. Issue is, PIT needs RD almost as much as BUF, so they would need to either get one back (what's the RD situation w/BUF's deep prospect pool?) or figure out their top 4 (sign Letang, line up a top 2RD) before making this move.
Forum: Armchair-GM8 mars 2022 à 4 h 56
Sujet: Byram to Vancouver
<div class="quote"><div class="quote_t">Quoting: <b>mv21227</b></div><div>So what would you say a PPG player who is top 15 in points over the last 3 seasons, plays C and Wing at an elite level, plays special teams, and has a great contract for this season and next is worth?</div></div>

Thinking through comparable trades - the Jason Zucker trade seems closest? - 1st, good but not bluechip prospect, usable but meh roster player to make cap work.
At the time Zucker was deemed to be a better player than he is now, signed to a value contract for 3 playoff runs, and Rutherford *really* wanted him. His lesser career point production and positional flexibility offset by increased term. That the trade did not work great for PIT, and how having Addison right now as a RD on an ELC would have more value to a playoff team, is part of why this is a tricky trade for a contender to make.

Other comparables, Palat last year, Teräväinen next year did not/are unlikely to reach the market.
Forum: Armchair-GM8 mars 2022 à 2 h 36
Sujet: 1 step back 2 steps forward
<div class="quote"><div class="quote_t">Quoting: <b>fckmattcooke</b></div><div>To be honest I see where you're coming from, but you have to take Byram out of the deal with no replacement. Barron, Jost, 1st is a very solid package for Miller. Avs could add a pick or a prospect for Motte</div></div>

Yes. That this doesn't seem to suit VAN's needs, means there is probably not a deal between teams.

<div class="quote"><div class="quote_t">Quoting: <b>BeautifulIdiot</b></div><div>ok I changed it up a little bit, took out the first. The thing is, teams will have to overpay for miller because of the unique situation that the canucks are in if they decide to move him. The only thing that Allvin would concider would be a deal that includes byram</div></div>

The Byram noise is coming from VAN, making it appear that the onus would be on VAN to overpay for Byram if that is who they really really want, rather than COL for Miller. This sentence could be switched and it then it would make sense from a COL perspective: 'teams will have to overpay for Byram because of the unique situation COL is in if they decide to move him. The only thing that Sakic would consider would be a deal that includes Pettersson.' And VAN fans would respond to this the way COL watchers are responding to the Byram noise.

Crucially, it doesn't make sense for COL to move Byram - young, cost controlled, top D prospect, going through difficulties so that trading him would be disrespectful (something Sakic doesn't do) and selling low (another thing Sakic doesn't do). COL's window/cap structure is bracketed by Rantanen's contract, not MacKinnon's current deal as they've already costed that extension in their plans, something most commentators don't seem to realize. If they perceived their window as MacK's current deal, they would have bridged Makar so as to have more cap right now.
Forum: Armchair-GM5 mars 2022 à 9 h 29
Sujet: ANH deadline
<div class="quote"><div class="quote_t">Quoting: <b>GeneralLandro</b></div><div>Take Comtois out of the STL trade, he isn’t going anywhere

Getzlaf is not going to be traded so let’s get rid of that trade as well</div></div>

Could see ANA trading Comtois in the offseason for another young change-of-scenery candidate based on the athletic's reporting, but wouldn't do that if i were ANA. But not as part of a deadline deal

Could see Lindholm to be a bidding war between STL, TOR, and FL if ANA can't re-sign him, in which his price as a rental w/retention would be 1st (or equivalent) + good prospect + what's needed to make cap work. think the prospect would need to be better than Klostin.

Getzlaf has said he doesn't have the personality to emulate Perry, think he stays put.
Forum: Armchair-GM5 mars 2022 à 9 h 22
Sujet: Is the value right
<div class="quote"><div class="quote_t">Quoting: <b>jpsnow13</b></div><div>If a team has no interest to trade for a UFA, then his value is zero. Needs creates value, it doesn't exist whatever the identity of the buying team.</div></div>

This.

Need + value are inextricably linked, so the q of Chariot's value to CBJ isn't answerable because that team doesn't need him.

Texier + Peake have value to MON because MON needs good players in their age bracket, but so does CBJ so it is doubtful that these teams are well matched as trade partners.

Could see CBJ aiming to sell high on some of their youngsters (like Texier), but that would be for picks/prospects/young players, which is what MON also wants to accumulate. Texier to a contender who values his skill set + cheap contract for a 2nd and B+ prospect at a position of need I could see as his value, tho would think CBJ would want more. Peake prob has more value to CBJ than on the market, making him not a good trade target.
Forum: Armchair-GM1 mars 2022 à 9 h 16
Sujet: Giroux and Domi
<div class="quote"><div class="quote_t">Quoting: <b>RonaldBilius</b></div><div>cbj wants picks or prospects</div></div>

That makes sense from CBJ's prospective. Isn't Domi tho UFA in the offseason, so their chance to get assets for him is pretty much the deadline? Which contenders would have interest in Domi, and the cap space or an expiring contract that they could send back? Wonder, if Domi isn't as desirable a prospective playoff run player as Savard or Foligno last deadline, a pure picks/prospects trade might not be as feasible.

<div class="quote"><div class="quote_t">Quoting: <b>Richard88</b></div><div>Olausson is definitely too rich for a rental. He's a recently drafted 1st rounder who the Avs were elated to pick when he fell to them as they had him much higher in the rankings than where they got him (according to both Sakic and the head scout Klippenstein in video interviews post-draft). He's also having a great season this year so his stock has improved. Avs are also short on forward prospects with legit top 6 potential so it's a non-starter; they'd probably sooner trade one of Barron or Helleson than Olausson simply due to positional needs in the organization.</div></div>

It's hard to gauge Domi's value right now, esp the difference between as a playoff rental versus a team that wants to sign him in the offseason (what would his next contract be? comparables?) But seems like those interested might be interested because of the potential to buy low ... tho Kekalainen is a tough negotiator. Have he and Sakic traded recently? feels like most of COL's CBJ alums were walking/were on a different team when acquired.
Forum: Armchair-GM27 févr. 2022 à 5 h 31
Sujet: Claude Giroux
<div class="quote"><div class="quote_t">Quoting: <b>B_seka17</b></div><div>Flyers accept, I think this is exactly what the Flyers would want for G</div></div>

Think this is exactly what PHI wants for Giroux, but unless there is a bidding war (and COL seems to be the Western conference contender w/need for a high-end playmaking winger - MIN needs a center and STL defense), think the formula might be that PHI gets their choice of 2023 1st/Barron/Jost, not all three. Also wonder if Sakic would even be up for a bidding war. He usually drops out, except for Kuemper, which might signal that he is this season ...

<div class="quote"><div class="quote_t">Quoting: <b>TJTwolf</b></div><div>Switch Barron for Ranta and Jost for Compher and the Avs accept.</div></div>

w/o a bidding war, the other players/assets might then alter in value based on PHI's initial choice:
23 2nd + Helleson + Jost
23 1st + Kaut/Ranta + Compher
Barron + Bowers + Murray

At this price, if the fit's right, wonder if COL would think abt offering Giroux the Pavelski contract (3x7) while letting Kadri and Burakovsky walk in the offseason.
Forum: Armchair-GM6 févr. 2022 à 16 h 26
Sujet: Anaheim one-stop-shop
<div class="quote"><div class="quote_t">Quoting: <b>Richard88</b></div><div>Thanks for your rebuttal :)

Makes sense re: the 'value of a 1st'. I guess it would depend on how another organization would value a prospect. For example, Arizona valued Timmins highly due to Alan Hepple (Avs former head scout) having joined Arizona, so the Avs offer of 1st + Timmins carried more weight than what Edmonton could offer.

Yes I do see the funny side with what you're saying. My point was simply that contenders as a whole are missing a few 1sts (these belong to non-playoff teams) which reduces the supply in the market overall, which will make 1st's in general carry more value. But yes of course any other team could trade a 2023 1st as well.

As for your last point, I guess we'll find out :)</div></div>

How teams value/evaluate other teams' prospects is interesting and difficult to gauge. Heard rumors that ANA is higher on Kaut than is COL. Would think Beaucage might have more value to a team that plays w/less than COL.
Forum: Armchair-GM26 janv. 2022 à 17 h 20
Sujet: Realistic miller trades
Don't think MIN is a good trade partner w/their cap situation next season, lack of RD prospects available, and Miller being a better W than C. Perhaps 1st, Greenway, choice of O'Rourke/Lambos/Hunt, but think VAN wants a better package.

COL might do 1st, Barron, roster player (Jost or Compher) but probably only if Miller were significantly retained.

NYR has a polarized history w/Miller, but the rumors are out there. Schneider off the table I'd think, but 1st, Lundquist, Chytil is good value. Not sure how much value Kravtsov has these days.

Think VAN would want an RD prospect of the Barron/Schneider/Lundquist calibre as the centerpiece, and the other parts are less important, so it might come down to who has the RD prospect VAN is highest on who is willing to move them ...