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lrw2105

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Forum: Armchair-GM26 janv. 2022 à 13 h 52
Sujet: Fix the PK
<div class="quote"><div class="quote_t">Quoting: <b>Bdawwwgy1</b></div><div>Cbj ain't doing that.</div></div>

<div class="quote"><div class="quote_t">Quoting: <b>The_Cannon</b></div><div>Not enough for cbj to take that.</div></div>

<div class="quote"><div class="quote_t">Quoting: <b>Mergus80</b></div><div>From the Avs perspective, hell yes. A young forward who fits their identity plus an underrated shutdown D on a nice contract sounds great to me.

I don’t think Columbus is interested in moving those guys though. Texier is somehow still only 22, even though it feels like he’s been around for a while. I would imagine he’s in their long term plans. Maybe they sell high on Gavrokiv with an extra year left on his deal (like Coleman/Goodrow as you mentioned).

I would be interested in Max Domi if he’s available. He’s popped up in Avs rumors for a few years, when he was with Arizona and Montreal. Good skater, positional versatility, fits Colorado’s style, and would bring a combo of skill and grit to the middle six.</div></div>

<div class="quote"><div class="quote_t">Quoting: <b>Viqsi</b></div><div>That's two young players we can't really afford to give up and in fact need more of, and you're trying to get them at a discount? Hell no.</div></div>

Don't think Domi is the type that would be of interest to COL - think they either want a top 6 versatile, cup hungry vet who's team is willing to do him a favor (aka Giroux) or do a trade like this for high quality, cost controlled depth whose contracts match the MacKinnon contract window.

Could only see CBJ trading 2 players they want to keep, but may not be considered integral pieces of the future and therefore pry-able, for a significant overpay. Perhaps get rid of retention on Texier and add Behrens to the package offered? Feels like CBJ's prospect D pool might be stronger on RD than LD? For a rebuilding team, the 2023 1st (esp. if only minimally/or not at all protected) might have more value than usual a year out 'cause 23 is supposed to be a deep draft and the last couple of drafts have had COVID scouting difficulties. Have heard rumors of some rebuilding teams wanting 23 1sts over 22sts, and also that CBJ coaching staff likes Compher. It all comes down to when CBJ feels their window will be, and how they plot it in relation to PIT, WSH, NYI's expected declines in the Metro. Ranta and Helleson would probably be on the table for COL for such a trade, but most likely not Barron, who looks like he may well be a contributor for the next two playoff runs.
Forum: Armchair-GM14 janv. 2022 à 15 h 52
Forum: Armchair-GM9 janv. 2022 à 16 h 23
Based on Montreal-based writers (Basu, Godin, LeBrun) Price at 50% retained seems to be attractive to contenders, and the names that keep coming up are COL and EDM. Price seems to want out, with a rebuild on the horizon, Bergavin gone, and his willingness to waive for expansion, and seeing how Gorton treated Lundqvist at the end. Since PLB is one of the few insiderzzz that Sakic talks to, COL has no NHL roster goalie's signed for next year, and the team for all their extremely smart analytical moves (Toews, Nichushkin, Burakovsky, Girard) has a streak of old school hockey in their decision-making (MacDermid) their could conceivably be a fit there, in spite of most most of the unlikely agms, there might be something to <a href="/users/SevenLeg" target="_blank" rel="noreferrer noopener">@SevenLeg</a> 's thought experiment ... GMs do love Price, esp. after the last play-off run, even if I'm in agreement with <a href="/users/xqb15a" target="_blank" rel="noreferrer noopener">@xqb15a</a> and <a href="/users/coga16" target="_blank" rel="noreferrer noopener">@coga16</a> that based on his last several regular seasons, injury history, and current health difficulties, COL shouldn't take the risk.

General thoughts:
1. This would have to be an off-season trade, as Price would have to 'prove' mental and physical health by playing games this season.
2. 50% for 4 years is A LOT to retain even for a rebuilding team with deep pockets, and MON would much prefer to take bad money back instead. Thing is, COL doesn't really have any - EJohnson's contract isn't long enough, he is valued so highly by the org for whom he just did a solid waiving his NMC for expansion, and he has a modified NTC which most likely has all Canadian teams on it. This makes EDM a more likely partner than COL, if MON took on some combination of Smith, Ceci, Barrie, Klefbom.
3. COL's cap structure means that they don't want to pay more than 5.5 for a starter - why they wouldn't bring back Grubauer. It's hard to get a starter for that, but Price at 50% fits. COL is a very disciplined abt cap structure and isn't willing to deviate until they get MacK re-signed. However, Kuemper isn't yet playing himself into more than a 5.5 contract, and the team had wanted him for awhile and paid a lot to get him. Francouz is looking good (and before he got hurt 2 seasons ago was challenging Grubauer for the starter role), has an opportunity this season to demonstrate health and reliability, and wouldn't be due a large contract next year because he's been out for so long. Depending on how the season and play-offs go, one of them could be well positioned to be the starter for the next several years at a price point that fits COL's cap structure. There is the 'COL effect' of how goalies look behind the team, front offices are noticing the difference between Grubauer from COL-&gt;SEA, and COL doesn't want to pay for this glow up.
4. COL don't have LTI contracts to shift, which MON would want since they will be in LTI for a while with Weber - depending on Klefbom's status, EDM might.
5. Price ages 35-39 at 5.25mil for 4 years with an NMC and an un-buyout-able contract is a big risk - with it looking likely that games in Canada may end up having to be played w/o gate revenue, the cap won't rise as quickly as the league seemed to think in the autumn. His contract is also signing bonus heavy, something COL's ownership doesn't like. If by season's end one of Kuemper or Francouz look like a reliable starter for less than 5.25x4, then COL is in a position to be choosy.
6. Price has to want out for the trade to happen, and Gorton/Molson/MON have to REALLY want him out in order to retain so much for so long. Moving Price would be a signature move of the new regime, and I think it would be hard for them to do PR wise w/o getting back what looks like a prime return, and based on the above, I don't think COL would be willing to give that.

TLDR - a COL-MON Price trade might be somewhat conceivable, but probably not on terms that most MON fans would like.
Forum: Armchair-GM1 déc. 2021 à 8 h 12
Forum: Armchair-GM6 nov. 2021 à 12 h 42
Forum: Armchair-GM17 oct. 2021 à 12 h 36
Forum: Armchair-GM15 sept. 2021 à 3 h 46
Sujet: All the Cs
Many thanks for the discussion.

<div class="quote"><div class="quote_t">Quoting: <b>Josh</b></div><div>I guess I'm confused where this 17m is coming from from next off-season and an additional $13m the following off-season.</div></div>

Based on the projected cap space in 'longterm outlook' - probably looked earlier in making this AGM, now looks more like 19mill and 10mill w/o the cap going up (though think it is projected to by 1mill/year)

<div class="quote"><div class="quote_t">Quoting: <b>sabres89</b></div><div>Normally i am in complete agreement with shibbal, but honestly i can see the sabres taking this (depending on their valuation of kravtsov). I would rather higher end young forwards, but i can get there if a right d is the bpa for the other player. No goalies or left d, please and thank you.</div></div>

It's hard to calculate 'appropriate' value in an Eichel trade w/all the noise/messaging on. Used the formula of 2 1sts, blue chip prospect, interesting B+ prospect, and not taking cap back or retaining. BUF would prefer a blue chip C prospect back and western conference, but if ANA isn't willing to part w/Zegras and other teams (MIN, VGK) would need to give back cap ... options thin.

w/r/t goalies, friends who follow them more closely view Georgiev as a stronger 1b than Koskinen, but don't value him as highly as NYR has until recently (apparently NYR had set his value at a first, which IMHO is inflated). Goalie value is all over the map, often most based on timing/need. It is hard to see EDM being able to make a cap neutral trade for other 1b options such as Khudobin or Korpisalo in season (and from a position of demonstrable need) w/o paying more than a 2nd.
Forum: Armchair-GM14 sept. 2021 à 8 h 20
<div class="quote"><div class="quote_t">Quoting: <b>Anus_McLeod</b></div><div>It's real dollars though too. Owners like money. And it's an especially tough pill when the league is already hurting.

It may not make sense to move him from SJ's perspective. I believe that if they do though, that will hurt his value pretty significantly. I won't pretend to know how much,but I don't think it would be seen as small potatoes.</div></div>

Interesting. Reading between the lines of Kevin Kurz over the past several months, Meier, Leblanc, and Simek seem to be on the block. SJS FO may have soured a bit on Meier, feeling that he's not quite living up to his contract and that he may be on the E Kane side of the locker room divisions. NJD may well be interested in Meier, but teams finding the last year of his deal a bit too cash rich - the possibility of the 10mill qualifying offer less of an issue now that Meier is not viewed as that level of player and the cap isn't rising quickly. Speculation of speculation of course.

<div class="quote"><div class="quote_t">Quoting: <b>Anus_McLeod</b></div><div>I'd rather have Hertl anyway, but this is at least different. I do think folks here are underrating Helleson, but I have always liked him more than most.

For discussion sake, let's say there is a bidding war. Would you do Barron, 1st, Kaut (or Bowers) for Hertl with retention and a reasonable extension? I probably would.</div></div>

COL should jump at that, but SJS would want a Seth Jones style return. Hertl's value so difficult to ascertain, as it comes down to how much he wields his very broad NTC and if he's being moved as a rental or willing to sign a contract with his new team. In terms of desirable locations or contenders, NYR might offer more.
Forum: Armchair-GM5 sept. 2021 à 12 h 48
Many thanks, all.

<div class="quote"><div class="quote_t">Quoting: <b>ricochetii</b></div><div>Hall is a closer comparison than you might think because Hertl only has a 3 team list. If he doesn't open up for other destinations, or agree to an extension, the price could come down significantly.
Not Taylor Hall bad, but not what SJ might like or what his actual value might be.</div></div>

<div class="quote"><div class="quote_t">Quoting: <b>Mr_Gardoki</b></div><div>I guess in general I'm curious what the realistic return for Hertl is. It doesn't sound like an early season trade is imminent, so if he is moved it will be closer to the end of the calendar year or up to the deadline which does affect the return IMO.

I look at Hall and while you can't do a 1-for-1 comparison since Buffalo didn't have much leverage and Hertl is arguably a bigger impact player than Hall, but just for argument's sake...

Hall got a 2nd + Anders Bjork. If we use that even as some kind of comparison, I'd think we're clearly starting with a first, but what does SJ want? Do they want a replacement? Futures? I feel like the Hertl trade is hard to really gauge at this point.</div></div>

Yeah, it's been hard to gauge Hertl's value, as so much seems dependent on how much he's willing to flex his 29 team NTC to a chosen contender, the timing of the trade, and the willingness of a chosen team(s) to sign him to a longterm extension ... Hall/BUF-&gt;BOS probably closer to the template than Jones/CBJ-&gt;CHI ... maybe something between the two Hall trades? Hall to ARI versus Hall to BOS? Also later in season means less need for SJS to take cap back, and teams' injuries making them more desperate .... but also the risk of Hertl getting injured.

<div class="quote"><div class="quote_t">Quoting: <b>ricochetii</b></div><div>Mtl doesn't need a winger and doesn't have the cap to spend on another one moving forward.
Even then, I don't see any team giving up assets for Kane. The only way to avoid buying him out (if you can't terminate him), is to pay another team to do it.</div></div>

<div class="quote"><div class="quote_t">Quoting: <b>Lesakoss</b></div><div>Agree, no asset for Kane from Montréal, SJ will have to trow at least a 2nd rd to get rid of him.
Moreover, Byron is to be used as LTIR for at least until Christmas period, we need LTIR money for the overcap here, so he's not going anywhere for now.</div></div>

Makes sense that Byron's LTIR too valuable atm for this to make sense. Was thinking of a team that seems willing to risk the PR repercussions of players w/character issues (like the Mailloux choice) who has a roster player who recently cleared waivers so as to make enough of the risk-benefit balance make sense in their favor. CAR could fit w/their willingness to take on Deangelo if they hadn't just made their fwd addition and placed Gardiner on LTIR ... Kane's an interesting conundrum if his contract isn't terminated. At 50%, such good value could see a team theoretically biting.
Forum: Armchair-GM17 juill. 2021 à 9 h 49
Forum: Armchair-GM16 juill. 2021 à 20 h 31
Forum: Armchair-GM24 juin 2021 à 15 h 14
Forum: Armchair-GM15 juin 2021 à 17 h 48
Forum: Armchair-GM13 juin 2021 à 15 h 45
<div class="quote"><div class="quote_t">Quoting: <b>WCSF</b></div><div>If you want to get crazy and one-stop shop, add Reinhart and Dumba to the deal.

To the Wild: Eichel, Reinhart

To the Sabres: Fiala, Greenway, Rask, Rossi, Dumba, 1st in 2021.</div></div>

<div class="quote"><div class="quote_t">Quoting: <b>WCSF</b></div><div>Sabres fan here.

The Sabres will have cap-space and a need for centres who can play in 2021-22. What if they replaced the 2022 1st with Rossi and added Rask to the deal.

Fiala, Greenway, Rask, Rossi, 1st in 2021 for Eichel.

This is on the assumption that Rask holds negative value in a trade otherwise.</div></div>

Think MIN *should* jump at either though it is a big swing, less sure BUF is interested in Rossi when they passed on him last draft (tho think they should be). Think from MIN's perspective a balanced combination of BUF's choosing from among Fiala, Greenway, Rask, one of Rossi or Boldy, Dumba, 2021 1st, 2022 1st that includes 6+mill of cap would work for JE (and more cap/less picks-prospects w/Reinhardt). Think from BUF's perspective even if they would prefer a not Rossi blue chip center prospect, this might be the best set of options in western conference if LA isn't in and ANA is unwilling to shift Zegras.

<div class="quote"><div class="quote_t">Quoting: <b>drmantalban</b></div><div>Guerin won’t give up 2 of the 3 in Rossi Boldy and Fiala. It’s likely Fiala if it’s any of those because of cap. But I personally dont think MIN is going to go for Eichel. I can guarantee 2 of the 3 don’t move though.</div></div>

Wonder if MIN's hesitancy over the JE risk/reward conundrum might be altered if it effects for how long Kaprizov is willing to sign, as hearsay indicates MIN's plan at center may have a significant impact ...
Forum: Armchair-GM13 juin 2021 à 14 h 58
Forum: Armchair-GM13 juin 2021 à 14 h 48