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gretzkyghosts

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Sabres de Buffalo
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Forum: Armchair-GM18 févr. à 12 h 44
Sujet: Adjustments
<div class="quote"><div class="quote_t">Quoting: <b>Korax</b></div><div><strong>So Sturm value is a 1st rounder? </strong>
Anderson value wise is okay, but BUF will want to replace Savoie with Rosen</div></div> <div class="quote"><div class="quote_t">Quoting: <b>sabres89</b></div><div>I think at this point I would move <strong>Samuelsson over johnson, but I don't think I would move either for Sturm</strong>, and I do think we need a legit two way center in the middle 6. If andersson isn't happening I'd move on, not interested with a Hanifin bait and switch.</div></div><a href="/users/Ankleblades" target="_blank" rel="noreferrer noopener">@Ankleblades</a> On 2022-Mar-15 Sturm was rraded from Minnesota Wild to Colorado Avalanche for Tyson Jost, how is now worth Ryan Johnson?
Of all of the Sabres there are very few that actually chose to play for them.
Ryan Johnson was one month away from being a UFA, he decided to sign with Buffalo.
It would send a truly horrible signal to the every player in the league if he was traded part way through his first season for a 4th line center who has 3 goals.
In addition to being terrible PR, of ALL Sabre defensemen Ryan has the lowest 5 on 5 xGA at 2.37 goals/60.
You want to trade Ryan Johndon for Tyson Jost?
As you may have been able to glean from my post, your trade made my head explode.
<a href="/users/sabres89" target="_blank" rel="noreferrer noopener"><a href="/users/sabres89" target="_blank" rel="noreferrer noopener">@sabres89</a></a> and <a href="/users/sabres89" target="_blank" rel="noreferrer noopener"><a href="/users/sabres89" target="_blank" rel="noreferrer noopener">@sabres89</a></a> were too polite to you.
Forum: Armchair-GM17 févr. à 17 h 52
Sujet: Long term with Ehlers
<div class="quote"><div class="quote_t">Quoting: <b>Zach</b></div><div>Skinner will need to be moved or bought out anyway to give Tuch and Quinn pay raises so not so much an Ehlers move. I don't think we can wait any longer, our window was open last season, wasted an open window this season, and now Dahlins and Powers deals kick in so there is real urgency to get in the playoffs next season especially with Tampa and Toronto showing decline + Boston will have to come back down to earth sometime, I'd rather be prepared for it</div></div>

<div class="quote"><div class="quote_t">Quoting: <b>AntiAnalytics</b></div><div>We’d ONLY need to get rid of Skinner somehow IF we were bringing in a guy like Ehlers

Now Ehlers is younger &amp; better than Skinner,
but is the difference between the two :
Savoie + Rosen + a top10 pick + a 2nd ???

Sorry, but NO WAY
That’s just way too much dude</div></div>

Please accept my apology for butting into your conversation.
Let me make a few points.
So we have to move out three future assets and Skinner to make room for Ehlers, but then we sign him to a contract for ONLY $1,000,000 less but it will extend for 6 years longer than Skinner current deal.
So how much better is Ehlers that Skinner.
Over the past 3 seasons Ehlers has played in 158 games with 56 goals and 129 pts, while Skinner has played in 204 games scored 85 goals and 179 pts.
It appears Skinner is more durable, but accounting for the extra games Skinner scores 0.42 goals/gm and 0.88 pts/gm while Ehlers is at 0.35 and 0.81 respectively.
Neither PK and Skinner xGA over that period was 2.98 and Ehlers was 2.65, neither are great.

Methinks it is better to keep the three futures and Skinner over the small upgrade that Ehlers may provide.
Let me add Skinner's contract expires the year before Rosen, Kulich, Savoie and Ostlund may be looking for raises.
With Ehlers on the payrole it will be more difficult to manage all of he contracts.

There is my penny and a half, shoot holes in it if you wish.

Let's keep Jeff who wants to play in Buffalo and is a team player.
Forum: Fauteuil - DG16 févr. à 22 h 10
Sujet: Center Changes
<div class="quote"><div class="quote_t">Quoting: <b>Korax</b></div><div>You can think about mony during the offseason for Landeskog imo. And for Olofsson, it is just a contingency just in case, just like Parise is also.</div></div> Trading Mittestadt is very low on my priority list.
Getting a LHD (Bowen Byram) when Buffalo has Dahlin, Power, Samuelson and Ryan Johnson who are all 23 yo or younger is not a top priority.
Even lower among Buffalo needs is a 22 yo RW who has zero NHL experience.
With all that said, as much as I like Casey adding defensemen (RHD would be better) and first round picks gets my interest.
Replace Beaucage with Johansen would actually be more palatable to me.
Buffalo is playing Bryson at LHD so Byram would replace him, and Johansen would take Casey's spot as 3rd line center at for the next two years.
It will not make Buffalo a playoff team as this season has not gone well and maybe a change is needed.
Maybe the first round pick and other assets would interest another team to trade a young RHD to Buffalo.
Forum: Armchair-GM15 févr. à 16 h 29
Sujet: Continuing rebuild
<div class="quote"><div class="quote_t">Quoting: <b>AntiAnalytics</b></div><div>Sabres trade doesn’t make much sense for Buffalo</div></div> <div class="quote"><div class="quote_t">Quoting: <b>BUFF36</b></div><div>How has Ginning progressed so far. How's his skating ?</div></div><a href="/users/Hammerwise" target="_blank" rel="noreferrer noopener">@Hammerwise</a>
Let me make this simple so you can understand this Wise Guy.
While they are both 24 years old currently, Jokiharju is 6 months older than Ginning but has played in 316 MORE NHL GAMES.
He is by far the Sabres best RHD.
He has been paired with Power 47% of the time and together they have been on the ice for 6 more goals than they have surrendured.

At the age of 24 Laughton scored 19 goals and 47 points.
At the age of 23 Krebs has 19 goals and 59 points.
In two years Krebs will be a younger cheeper Laughton, while Laughton will not be a Sabre.
This is a horrible trade for the Sabres no matter how you try to spin it.
Forum: Armchair-GM15 févr. à 10 h 5
Sujet: Selling at TDL to get the right mix
<a href="/users/BUFF36" target="_blank" rel="noreferrer noopener">@BUFF36</a>
You and I agree on too many subjects my friend.
<div class="quote"><div class="quote_t">Quoting: <b>DragonKnight</b></div><div>Would the Sabres like to return to the days of Darcy Regier? "What not to do as a sports team's General Manager" is what Regier did.</div></div> I do not read the Star so I do not know how much influence the hockey writers have on ownership.
Here in Buffalo our press is terrible.
In 1987 our Anencephalic writers wrote "Buffalo Deserves Better" when management fired Scotty Bowman.
Four years later, he went to Pittsburgh and won the Stanley Cup.
In 1997 the writers thought Ted Nolan was the greatest head coach ever.
Management fired John Muckler because there was a difference of opinion between John and Ted that the writers spent too much ink misinforming the public.
Nolan refused to accept a contract the following year and was released by Darcey Regier.
Muckler went on to be a very successful GM and was fired by the Senators after taking the team to the playoffs.
It is interesting that both John and Scotty remained in Buffalo.

There are many more instances in which the press has influenced ownership as they also influenced Pegula to fire Regier.
I can assure you, if Regier was the GM the Sabres would have been in the playoffs 5 years ago.

Tim Murray set the rebuild back at least 6 years.
Botterill got it on the right track with his drafting and trades (four of the five top defensemen, the top 3 centers, top LW and top GK are all his acquisitions).
Adams sits on his hands, sucks up to Terry and lets Jerry Forton run the drafts, Karmanos act a GM, Crow scout the NHL and Ventura run the analytics.
This should have been the year to make the playoffs, but Adams is too risk adverse to make the needed big move.
Since the start of the season added Erik Robinson for at most a 7th round pick, Buffalo will only give up 7th round pick if he plays more than 45 games (an unlikely event as he would need to play in 27 of the remaining 30 games to achieve that milestone).

Well that is my tome for the week.
Forum: Armchair-GM13 févr. à 9 h 34
Sujet: j-jp
<div class="quote"><div class="quote_t">Quoting: <b>Skyraider112</b></div><div>That's a funny trade. Real value would be Guhle and your 2024 1st</div></div> <div class="quote"><div class="quote_t">Quoting: <b>littlejerryseinfeld</b></div><div>Obviously a no from buffalo</div></div>

<div class="quote"><div class="quote_t">Quoting: <b>Subbanator7667</b></div><div>Come on man, he's a good player but he's not a ppg player and may never be. Wouldn't get our 2024 1st by itself</div></div> <div class="quote"><div class="quote_t">Quoting: <b>habitantlecolon</b></div><div>I wonder how much over Newhook Buffalo gets for JJP. Don't get me wrong the kid is good, but we are looking for market value.</div></div>
A couple of comments to put this all into perspective.
True JJ would not return Guhle and the Habs 2024, but that would be the asking price as he is not about to be traded.
He has already exceeded last years goals and pts with 31 games remaining to be played.
This improvement has to be put into context of the entire team performance, he is only one of three Sabres who have outperformed last year.

As to Newhook, let's just say Colorado did really well in that deal and Montreal did not.
They moved Newhook and used the second to get Ross Colton, while Newhook has been injured.

But to the Newhook v Peterka comparison, JJ has played in 54 fewer games scoring only 4 fewer goals.
You tell me who has more value.
It is not a stretch of the imagination that JJ could return the same as DeBrincat (7th OA, 2nd and 3rd) or Hagel (16th OA and 2024 first) since they all have 18 or 19 goals this season.
Forum: Armchair-GM11 févr. à 21 h 11
Sujet: How much
<div class="quote"><div class="quote_t">Quoting: <b>sens65</b></div><div>That's pretty awful for Buffalo.
I'd ask for Schneider on top of that.</div></div> <div class="quote"><div class="quote_t">Quoting: <b>MoSeider53</b></div><div>Casey Mittelstadt &gt; Kakko+2025 1st round pick, Buffalo 100% declines</div></div> <div class="quote"><div class="quote_t">Quoting: <b>Rags21</b></div><div>Buffalo doesn’t do that and Rangers probably can’t afford his extension</div></div> <div class="quote"><div class="quote_t">Quoting: <b>Stadel</b></div><div>Most of the reputable sources have poured cold water on that. Some teams are calling, because that's their job. And the Sabres are listening cause well, that's also their job lol. Like 95% of the time it goes nowhere and the player will re sign.</div></div><div class="quote"><div class="quote_t">Quoting: <b>AntiAnalytics</b></div><div>Nope, not at all
Very unlikely the Sabres move him
Maybe in the offseason if they can’t agree on a contract- MAYBE</div></div>

<a href="/users/mvp13" target="_blank" rel="noreferrer noopener">@mvp13</a>
Let's be clear, your post "How Much".
The first is two years away and Kaapo may not be much of anything.
<a href="/users/sens65" target="_blank" rel="noreferrer noopener">@sens65</a> nailed it, ADD <strong>Schneider</strong>.
Buffalo is not selling so there would have to be an over pay.
Forum: Armchair-GM9 févr. à 18 h 30
Sujet: Trade for miller let van sign ep40
<div class="quote"><div class="quote_t">Quoting: <b>mv21227</b></div><div>Canucks should be able to sign Pettersson either way, but looking at it purely off of value I’d probably take this deal. I doubt we move Miller though seeing as this is the first year of his extension</div></div> <div class="quote"><div class="quote_t">Quoting: <b>We_know_nothing</b></div><div>Welcome to Vancouver Casey, Mattias and Matthew! See ya JT.</div></div> <div class="quote"><div class="quote_t">Quoting: <b>Mediumyeet</b></div><div>Miller has an NMC and is a massive part of the team. This is a strong return but it's not going to happen.</div></div> <div class="quote"><div class="quote_t">Quoting: <b>CM_Insane</b></div><div>Value wise probably an overpayment. But Miller brings the grit that our top six can't afford to lose. We'd become to soft of a team after this trade. Plus this is more cap coming in unless Mittelsteadts new deal is under 4m. It would work for NHL 24 not real life NHL.</div></div>
All for fun, yes it is an over payment, but what a top 9 for the 4 or 5 years.

<div class="quote"><div class="quote_t">Quoting: <b>littlejerryseinfeld</b></div><div>No thank you</div></div> <div class="quote"><div class="quote_t">Quoting: <b>Czu8iks</b></div></div> <div class="quote"><div class="quote_t">Quoting: <b>AntiAnalytics</b></div><div>We disagree on this one
Not at all what the Sabres should look to do imo
Miller costs too much- in assets AND in Cap Hit</div></div> just wanted to make a fun trade that was not for EP40.
Of course all of you are correct.
Forum: Armchair-GM8 févr. à 16 h 3
Sujet: Sell High On Mitts
<div class="quote"><div class="quote_t">Quoting: <b>BUF10</b></div><div>This create a bigger hole down the middle because we all know Stephenson would never sign with the Sabres.</div></div> <div class="quote"><div class="quote_t">Quoting: <b>Brain</b></div><div>I'm a Sabres fan, but neither of these work...Nothing here is realistic.</div></div> <div class="quote"><div class="quote_t">Quoting: <b>Tjm220</b></div><div>I would agree. Casey Mittelstadt does not get traded unless the offer is too good to pass up...</div></div> <div class="quote"><div class="quote_t">Quoting: <b>sabres89</b></div><div>For the right player I'd move him 11 times out of ten....</div></div>

<div class="quote"><div class="quote_t">Quoting: <b>F50marco</b></div><div>I know this sucks to hear but the simple fact that Buffalo would be actively shopping their 25 year old leading scorer, raises Vatican sized alarm bells for anyone acquiring him. In any other scenario, this would be a player you're trying to lock up long term, not trade. Doesn't mean he's worthless, he'll still get a nice return but I think its less than what Buffalo fans would expect unfortunately.</div></div> If Casey is traded he should return at least the equivalent of Matt Duchene got the AVE's probably more.
Anything less and he will remain a Sabre.
Matt was traded as he was extra and other factors.
Forum: Armchair-GM7 févr. à 12 h 54
Sujet: Lights Out And Away We Go
<div class="quote"><div class="quote_t">Quoting: <b>Chapee44</b></div><div>At the rate they have performed they'd be looking at Owen Tippett money long term. If they bet on themselves for a two year bridge they can be looking at Jeff Skinner money.

I agree on Levi but it would be better for him and the Sabres if UPL is playing 3/4 really well to have Levi play more games in the AHL. I love Levi, he just would benefit from time in my opinion.</div></div>

There are not any other Sabre ACGM's that understand team building as well as you.
Very insightful.
As you correctly addressed cap is not an issue for the Sabres.

Over Luukkonen's last 9 games the Sabres have scored 20 goals.
In the four games he lost, they scored 4 while he only surrendered 8.
He is the real deal.
Forum: Armchair-GM6 févr. à 20 h 48
Sujet: Small TDL moves to add RHD
<div class="quote"><div class="quote_t">Quoting: <b>Campabee</b></div><div>That's all well and good, I never said the Sabres would make the deal (besides the fact that this is a Sabres fans ACGM) all I said was that the value between the two players is similar making any deal a 1 for 1 and the Habs would not be adding anthing but either would the Sabres. This isn't my ACGM and I never said the Sabres should do it (personally I think the Sabres need a guy more like Kovacevic than Barron but the OP traded for Barron and as such my comment reflected that)</div></div> I rarely respond even once but you have earned a second.
The stats I cited should have been conclusive that Barron is not very good.
Baron is not even an NHL 7th defenseman currently as he is playing in the AHL.
That is what you obviously missed from my first response so the need to repeat it.
Baron and a near 2nd for Ostlund is more than fair.
Forum: Armchair-GM5 févr. à 19 h 55
Sujet: Small TDL moves to add RHD
<div class="quote"><div class="quote_t">Quoting: <b>BUFF36</b></div><div>No he's not, he's 5'11" and by the time he comes here for camp he could be 185-190 and room to grow.</div></div> Yup!

<div class="quote"><div class="quote_t">Quoting: <b>Campabee</b></div><div>I know this isn't gonna be liked by Sabres fans but Habs aren't adding the 1st here, it would be 1 for 1...</div></div>Thank you for setting my mind straight.
Barron has 6 goals and does play 4th most minutes for MTL.
Upon review this is a terrible trade for Buffalo.
He plays sheltered minutes getting the second highest offensive zone starts of all MTL Dmen.
Barron PK's for only 48 sec per game ranking him 6th and only plays 18:47 min per game.
His %GA/60 2.91 is 7th among MTL and would the second worse among all Sabre dmen.
He does not hit nor block shots and ranks 5th and 7th per 60 minutes respectively among all MTL dmen, but would rank 6th an 8th in Buffalo.
In case you do not know, Buffalo dmen are not known for their physical play.
Barron's stats make them appear to be beasts.
Buffalo would never make this trade.

<div class="quote"><div class="quote_t">Quoting: <b>AntiAnalytics</b></div><div>Why do the Sabres NEED Barron, if we are able to get Borgen back ?

Seems like overkill &amp; trading just to trade at this point
Clifton is fine at RD3</div></div>We on agree nearly all Sabre matters.
The items on which we agree that differ nearly from all other Sabre ACGM's are:
Jokiharju is the Sabres best RHD why trade him.
Greenway is not being traded this year unless a team were to send a top pairing young RHD.
For what ever reason Olofsson was *ucke* this year.
Cliffton is playing well enough.

As to this trade, after reviewing Barron's stats you are correct in this matter as well.
This is a bad trade for Buffalo.
As I prepared this post the plan was to get 2 young RHD for our 3rd (or 4th) ranked center prospect and Krebs.
Borgan would be good catch, Barron is not.
As you said get Borgan keep Clifton.
Forum: Armchair-GM4 févr. à 0 h 19
Sujet: BUF trade
<div class="quote"><div class="quote_t">Quoting: <b>Ennis</b></div><div>Buffalo just hangs onto him</div></div> <div class="quote"><div class="quote_t">Quoting: <b>littlejerryseinfeld</b></div><div>Idk. I think they were unhappy he went back to Sweden. This is a strong offer</div></div> <div class="quote"><div class="quote_t">Quoting: <b>AntiAnalytics</b></div><div>Sabres would have to REALLY like Barron...</div></div> <div class="quote"><div class="quote_t">Quoting: <b>Fran615</b></div><div>This is far from being a "laughable" offer...</div></div> <div class="quote"><div class="quote_t">Quoting: <b>thewookie1</b></div><div>While likely a no by the Sabres; it isn’t a bad proposal...</div></div> Before opening this post I was certain it was another Allen for 4th.
Thank for making a great trade.
There are so few this was truly refreshing.
While the Sabres drafted Ostlund before Kulich Noah may have slipped in the depth charts.
While not fully accurate Dobber ranks him behind Kulich, Wahlberg and Savoie and Hockey Writers mid season does not rank Wahlberg as highly.
Therefore Buffalo is trading away depth for a need.
All trades invovle risk, this deal gives Buffalo two chances to win, Barron and the first.
Make the deal and expect to win twice.