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dp6154

dp6154
Membre depuis
10 juill. 2019
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Blues de St-Louis
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Canucks de Vancouver
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Forum: Armchair-GM17 juill. 2020 à 15 h 52
Forum: Armchair-GM13 juill. 2020 à 10 h 8
Sujet: Hypothetical Anaheim 1
If Pietrangelo signs for 8M AAV he's a Blue, hell the Blues probably keep him for 9M, it's likely that he want near 10 that he walks, that's what you're looking at

Also in what universe do the cap tight, let Backes walk when he is captain, Blues want David Backes back, especially paying picks to pay 6M a year for him. They wouldn't even want to take picks for him right now because they are not rebuilding with cap room, they especial wouldn't give picks for the Ducks to cap dump.

Like put those 2 thoughts together, you are an elite team, defending cup champs and currently sitting at the top of your conference heading into the playoffs, you could pay your current captain who is a top 5 player at his position, captained you to the first cup in your history exactly what you offered him in November or you could let him walk and spend 3/4 of that much, which you still have to clear cap space for, & trade away two draft picks when you are thin on picks to bring back your previous captain who is a washed up badly overpriced 4th liner when you already have a former 1st lier who is paid too much to be a good defensive 4th line who is already better at playing and costs 250k a year less already on the roster(Steen)

In what universe is that anything but an old video game "allow forced trades" move?
Forum: Armchair-GM10 juill. 2020 à 9 h 1
Sujet: Trying to make keeping Pietrangelo realistic
<div class="quote"><div class="quote_t">Quoting: <b>Jdfitz77</b></div><div>U don’t think your Leafs would if they could figure out the Cap?
I do

Even though it is a flat cap,
he’s gotta be the #1 UFA this season... right?
I’m thinking he’ll get paid unless HE chooses to take less to play in a more desirable spot</div></div>

yeah it's between him and Taylor Hall and Hall had that one season and keeps disappointing and finding himself on teams with 1OA pick. I'm thinking he gets paid too so teh only way he does stay is if he wants to be a Blue which is why I'm putting him around 9.5 or 10 (I went 9.5 in this case) and not falling for these predictions that he'll take the very 8X8 he turned down earlier this year or the Blues would have signed him to that while everyone was sitting around in quarantine with nothing but time on their hands a month or 2 ago
Forum: Armchair-GM10 juill. 2020 à 8 h 44
Sujet: Trying to make keeping Pietrangelo realistic
<div class="quote"><div class="quote_t">Quoting: <b>A_K</b></div><div>Expansion draft isn't until after the 2021 season so cap relief wouldn't come in time to rectify the Pietrangelo situation. To keep Petro, the first move would be trading Allen and finding a sub-$1.5m backup. Then the next (more challenging) move would be to find a home for Bozak that works with his 10-team no-trade list. Then our GM who has no history of dead money would have to buy out Steen to save another $2m or so against the cap (assuming Steen won't waive his NTC). From there, depending on the exact cap hit that Petro signs for, someone like Gunnarsson, Bortuzzo, Sanford, Blais, or Barbashev might have to be moved. It's a lot of moving parts and the reward is a potentially bad contract for the back 9 of Petro's career... will be interesting to see what happens.</div></div>

Oh man I keep making these posts assuming the Seattle pick because in my head it was before this next year. Thank you for correcting me so I don't waste my time anymore and thank you for actually reading the description too. I wonder if the Blues could front load the contract or shift enough to signing bonuses to make Pietro happy with 9. Gonna be tough
Forum: Armchair-GM2 juill. 2020 à 14 h 4
Sujet: Keeping Pietrangelo
<div class="quote"><div class="quote_t">Quoting: <b>alwaysnextyear</b></div><div>You've misread VAN's situation. They don't have a lot of cap space, and likely won't be able to re-sign Toffoli. Markstrom (the only FA goalie you didn't mention) will be their priority signing if they don't think Demko is ready to take on more starts yet.

Having said that, I could see Allen as a decent fit if the acquisition cost isn't too high and Markstrom walks to another team. But that acquisition cost is not Gaudette. There are other good 1-year goalie options out there that can be had for less than a good young 3C with upside and team control. I think Allen could fetch a 3rd round pick.</div></div>

Ah that makes sense. Also didn't realize Gaudette had much upside. Thought he was a run of the mill young bottom 6 c (a good young bottoms 6 c but nonetheless) so I underestimated both the Markstrom returning interest and Gaudettes value. Yeah I would not mind Allen going for the pick nonetheless which would make it a bit of a better fit though I doubt Bortz goes with him then and that raises the cost of the Steen dump.

Oof this might be a rough offseason, lose Pietro or absolute shenanigan hell :(
Forum: Armchair-GM2 juill. 2020 à 13 h 59
Sujet: 31 in 31
oh this is CLEEEEEAAAN. AS a Blues fan I would adore this.
I'm not sure the Ducks take that with Gibson on their roster but if they do that would be ideal.. more likely I see either Vancouver taking on Allen or Detroit (though a Vancouver fan did give me push back claiming they are shedding cap which I frankly do not understand, and either one could chase Lehner or Holtby) Allen is having a great year and may have salvaged some of his value.

Steen is a no value guy for a team eating cap for a pick unless a young talented team like the Devils wants him for "leadership" and defense, and I'd bet the Ducks would do that now that you bring it up though it would also probably take a prospect swap. The Bues won't dump Kostin and won't dump a freshly drafted Alexandrov so Laferriere or Toropchenko or Evna Ftizpatrick would have to go the other way depending on the Ducks prospect needs.

Agree on a depth signing like Gibbons. Walker probably makes his way onto the roster but that's probably just to replace whomever Seattle takes.

my only question is who do you think Seattle takes? Maybe Blais? Or Barbashev?

Also lines actually look spot on for forwards and close for D but Dunn plays on the 3rd line, not that he's bad, just that Parayko does better with stay at home LD, he was masterful with Bouwmeester through the run and early part of this year before the heart attack and has looked just as good with Scandella since the trade
so
Faulk-Pietrangelo
Scandella-Parayko
Dunn-Bortuzzo
and any game that Mikkola has to play in assuming it's not Faulk who is hurt/resting would mean Faulk moves down to pair with Dunn
Forum: Armchair-GM2 juill. 2020 à 13 h 41
Sujet: Keeping Pietrangelo
<div class="quote"><div class="quote_t">Quoting: <b>brocklesnar</b></div><div>VAN decline, they are trying to shed salary. Also they will re-sign Markstrom.</div></div>

Vancouver is trying to shed salary? I mean I believe you, I'm not the all knower of the ins and outs of other teams, but why?
They have 18 in space for Toffoli RFAs and a D and goalie (which Allen and Bortz take care of) if Ferland is broken like long long term, and Toffoli walks and they use that money for Ferland if his concussion clears up by next year. Do they expect Motte or Vertanen to get really expenisve? So they want to have no RD in favor of keeping Toffoli and a healthy Ferland? Are they gonna chase Taylor Hall? Why would they want to shed cap? i don't mean to sound like I'm pushing back, I'm genuinely and humbly curious, I'm just also totally befuddled
Forum: Armchair-GM2 juill. 2020 à 13 h 24
Sujet: Keeping Pietrangelo
<div class="quote"><div class="quote_t">Quoting: <b>Leafs_and_Sens_Fan</b></div><div>Steen will cost a 1st to move out or at minimum a couple 2nds. No team will give you a pick for him.

Also you're not getting enough in that Vancouver trade.

Also Pietrangelo wouldn't take a 2 year 10M deal. He's gonna look for term on this next contract. If you want 2 year look at paying him 15M.</div></div>

I would LOVE to give him term I'm thinking the 2 years because the market value will be sapped but he'll rightly want his 10. If I could signed him at 8x9 or 8x95. I jump all over that
The Vancouver trade messed up somehow. that was supposed to be for Gaudet who gets flipped in the Steen dump. My browser must be doing weird things and it messed up every trade except the Seattle expansion placeholder, nice to see all my work get messed up like that, lol. Not even sure how a Vancouver 7th got added , that shouldn't have been there at all
Forum: Armchair-GM2 juill. 2020 à 13 h 18
Sujet: Yet another look
<div class="quote"><div class="quote_t">Quoting: <b>STLBlues17</b></div><div>Hmm, I’d refer to keep Sanford until he demands a sizable raise. He popped 16 goals and the analytics look pretty solid from both of the past two seasons. I think next season one of Sanford or Blais could really explode and make the other expendable.</div></div>

I agree and bet hard it would be Sanford, he was on a 40 point pace with full time play last year and is on a 30 point /82 career so his production seems middle 6 already and in flashes looks like it could even go up. He also has a positive Corsi% and XG% last year and career.
Blais is even Corsi and negative xG% last year and career, does not have amazing flashes of brilliance, is on just under a 20 point pace with full time play (but around 25 last year), he mostly just doesn't look lost on top 6 lines and hits guys but on the plus side his zone entries and exits are very high meaning he theoretically gets the puck up ice well (assuming that's not just linemeates grabbing attention but the numbers are good enough there should be at least some skill there) and put up big point totals in the high minors so I bet there is some potential but the numbers, eye test, all point to Sanford
Forum: Armchair-GM1 nov. 2019 à 11 h 20
Sujet: Making the playoffs without Tarasenko
<div class="quote"><div class="quote_t">Quoting: <b>TheEarthmaster</b></div><div>Sorry for writing a book, I just feel like that's all relevant information.</div></div>

No your long response is fine. I'm sorry for my long response I'm just finding the Kostin hype train in general is just way over the top. It wasn't directed at you which is confusing because it's about your post so that's my bad. I agree on Kyrou being more valuable and having a higher ceiling so I don't want to rush him either but like I said that's also why I don;t want to rush Kostin. I also don't think Walker will be very good in the NHL hence why I am good with rentals , but Walker is the logical call up and will just be depth

I think the biggest disconnect is on Allen. I am someone who last year was telling people to stop assuming Allen was ever good and not a product of his defenses the same way I'm on this personal march to slow the Kostin hype train so trust me I'm not upset at losing Allen, but he's not a negative trade asset. He's worth getting something back in picks or prospects and the Blues only kept him because the offseason backup signings available they assumed would be too expensive or long term to leave themselves with no backup and husso had just had an awful season in the AHL when healthy and was coming off an injury, plus Binny always had that "what if he was just a flash in the pan: thing. Now that Binnington is showing he's the real deal and Husso is healthy and good in the AHL then assuming Husso (and Binnington) stays healthy and productive Allen can be traded.

That means Allen would be replenishing the prospect/pick pool not hemorrhaging it further, if you trade him away for assets rather than for Howard. it's just a matter of if you wait until the offseason or do it before the deadline (probably the offseason but again Husso/Binny performance &amp; health + what is offered for Allen will determine all of that)

As far as rentals in general, the Miller trade was dumb from a process point of view because if Halak was a product of the defense then the Blues defense was good enough to make an average goalie look historically good then what is even the marginal gain of a better goaltender? There is a smaller unsaved shot % variable for a goalie to fix, or if Halak wasn't a system guy like was assumed then you are paying assets to dump a better goaltender for a worse one (which turned out to be true) . There was no scenario where that move was smart(I was screaming this fro the mountain tops at the time but nobody cared and Army had his ear to the narrative apparently because he's a good GM, especially with trades, but that and the Oshie one were bad and were both the predominant narrative at the time, much like again this "Call up Kostin to replace Tarasenko" stuff). It was not a bad deal because rentals are some nebulous bad.

Manifest NHL talent is better than prospects as prospect have a large fail rate and a larger rate of success that still falls short of the hype enough that you are better with the NHL talent. It always has to be weighed because even that success that falls short of hype adds up and sometimes they do hit which is the only way to accumulate enough talent under the cap, but it's generally true that NHL talent is better. Cup windows don't just happen every year. If you have a cup window, you can't just will a playoff win with GMing, many teams that make a run make rentals and most teams even in the playoffs don't win a cup or make the finals, hell half are out in the first round, so that's not a good measure. You mentioned Muzzin and Coyle of course and only one of those tow acquisitions would be making it out of the first round so it was pick the losers and go "they didn't even make it out of the first" which is pretty analysis stunting logic.

It also is looking at a playoffs where the champs were an odd worst to first story, a top 3 team all time was swept out of the first, and every division winner lost in the first round. Go back on year. The Jets grab Stastny to wind up in the conference finals, to be beat by a team who paid 3 draft picks for Tatar, who was beat in the finals by a team who made a smaller rental but still bought Kemper. Or the year before where the team that traded for Fiddler was beat by the one who acquired Hainsey. I'm not saying the Blues have to get Hall (would be fun even if Tarasenko was healthy because there was still a top 6 wing spot up for grabs but it would cost too much) but a 40+ point/year guy on a rental for like a second or hell acquire picks for Allen and flip them for a rental wouldn't be a bad idea. The team just needs to weigh how much going for it this year without Tarasenko (out for basically the season and very much a maybe for the playoffs) is worth it and I bet they kick that can for a month or two to find out who this team is and see how health otherwise goes. End of the day, they aren't flipping a goalie, those Howard rumors last year were when it was obvious Allen was the problem but not obvious that Binnington was the answer yet
Forum: Armchair-GM31 oct. 2019 à 14 h 59
Sujet: Making the playoffs without Tarasenko
<div class="quote"><div class="quote_t">Quoting: <b>TheEarthmaster</b></div><div>Chopper02 answered the first part of your question. There's very few players available that could reasonably replace Tarasenko, and all of them would be pure rentals because we have no cap space to resign them. So you'd be giving up a first (in a good draft year), a roster player, and a prospect for like, idk, two months of Taylor Hall at best, and then he walks next year, that just doesn't seem worth it to me.

Howard is a good goalie, has playoff experience, and would be a good backup at worst for any cup contending team that needed one. But that trade is more because we need to get out of the last year of Allen's contract to stay compliant next offseason. Howard is UFA at the end of this season. Detroit was linked to Allen before, so I say let's try to make something happen there again.</div></div>

ok but 1) the Blues have Vile Husso and can simply trade Allen to someone goaltending needy for future value whether that is at the deadline or in the offseason if Husso continues to look good
and
2) Kostin is nowhere near ready and also while good,nowhere near as good as people are hyping him up to be. If he was that good and ready he'd be up starting over Blais or Sanford even before the Tarasenko injury. Why do people think Tarasenko's injury effects that? why would &lt;20pt/year players be blocking him in some way that a Tarasenko injury unlocks or what vast improvement has he made in 9 ~.5 pt/game AHL games? Do people think he's playing out of his mind in a way that doesn't show up on the stat sheet in the AHL (a thing that happens but hasn't been reported by basically anyone for Kostin at this point, plus that's a big gap to make up in "not showing up in the stats sheet" for an offense first forward)? Do people think because he looked good in the first few preseason games (something he didn't even carry all the way through the preseason) that makes him ready, scouting reports and larger bodies of data including his current 9 game AHL production be damned? Do people not remember how good Kyrou looked through the ENTIRE preseason last year and how awful he looked at the beginning of last year, and as soon as he is healthy he is a better and more NHL ready prospect than Kostin, he's just rehabbing an injury at the moment ebcause the Blues are patient with prospects. Where did this narrative of Tarasenko injury "opens the door for Kostin" come from and why is ti so popular?

The fact of the matter is the Blues either need to win without Tarasenko or realize that they were likely looking at another scoring winger rental at the deadline before Tarasenko's injury and now they need it more and pony up for a trade (obviously not to replace all of his production but to get NHL level talent to close the gap). There is no reason to burn assets on goalies if Husso stays healthy and productive and there is no reason to use Tarasenko's injury as a reason to panic and take Kostin off his development curve. Kostin is too talented and this team is too good to sink this team or Kostin's development curve on rushing the Blues second best forward prospect. If they wanna call someone up Walker is a non-prospect who is hot and can fill a roster spot