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dp6154

dp6154
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10 juill. 2019
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Forum: Armchair-GM21 juill. 2020 à 12 h 35
Sujet: Keeping Pietrangelo and letting Gunnarsson go part 2 the 2022ing
<div class="quote"><div class="quote_t">Quoting: <b>BeastModeUnknown</b></div><div><img class="for_img" src="https://media.discordapp.net/attachments/447227144922464257/734928219043659786/B8B3zIt8OdzOgAAAABJRU5ErkJggg.png?width=1124&amp;height=926" alt="B8B3zIt8OdzOgAAAABJRU5ErkJggg.png?width=1124&amp;height=926">

That's not all that great stats

<a href="https://hockeyviz.com/fixedImg/playerOverview/1920/STL/sanfoza94/" rel="nofollow noreferrer noopener" target="_blank">https://hockeyviz.com/fixedImg/playerOverview/1920/STL/sanfoza94/</a>

his 5v5 production go figure he's playing with David Perron almost non-stop, and Ryan O'Reilly the second most, and third most is Robert Thomas.

<a href="https://hockeyviz.com/fixedImg/wowy/1920/STL/sanfoza94/" rel="nofollow noreferrer noopener" target="_blank">https://hockeyviz.com/fixedImg/wowy/1920/STL/sanfoza94/</a>

This shows even more effect of players without him, and players that are effected by playing with him. If you really understood what I'm getting at that's the exact same thing that happened with Patrik Berglund. He brought players down on that 3rd line. It wasn't a good production by him. I don't see him coming into his own, he's being sheltered by skill.</div></div>

huh? The 5v5 part of this has Sanford with all postive (mostly strong positive) marks, only xGA which is barely negative ding him and he has such positive xGF that his xG% is still good. Why would we separate the total product (additionally you really need to not split for and against for defense anyway is it gives you a total possession picture, and I love evolving hockey but they draw the conclusion that since zone faceoffs are difficult to quantify and not as big of a deal as narrative says that they don't matter, which I think is an overstatement but can get on board with if you are looking at total possession (say xG% instead of just xGA) but if you are splitting up shot for and against whether it's attempts or quality of whatever you also need to look at what zones a player takes faceoffs in, while it's ahrd to find faceoffs because they mostly get tracked for centers, we know that Sanford is on O'Reilly's line most of the time, if you look at his face offs last year ROR had 584 D zone face offs to 567 offensive zone, or over 50% <a href="https://www.puckbase.com/stats/player-faceoff-splits?player=ryan-o~reilly" rel="nofollow noreferrer noopener" target="_blank">https://www.puckbase.com/stats/player-faceoff-splits?player=ryan-o~reilly</a>, imply Sanford is the same way, that's gonna sag a minimizing shots against stat. Sanford is not a bad or good defensive player, he is a good possession player by shots which is the best we have besides the "eye test" to measure defensive prowess in hockey)
Forum: Armchair-GM21 juill. 2020 à 12 h 19
Sujet: Keeping Pietrangelo and letting Gunnarsson go part 2 the 2022ing
<div class="quote"><div class="quote_t">Quoting: <b>Silkysmooth42</b></div><div>Where does he fit? show me the lines?
Because ill save you the time and tell you, he doesnt fit

Marhcy - Bergy - Pasta
Debrusk - Krejci - Kase
Bjork - Studnicka - Coyle
Ritchie - Kuraly - Wagner

You wanna sit ritchie? Ok, but then you are playing a perfectly good 3rd liner at 4th line LW</div></div>

I don't care, I do not care, here's the deal. I know this site gerneally has people not think throught trades adn I know most of the time finding a team to line up the needs is a vital part of proposing the trade and figuring the right return. This is an exception Blais for a 3rd is cheap and valuable enough that lost of teams would take it, in what I presume from looking over the teams in a way I did do, Boston belongs in the group of teams that would want him for that (Krejci pricing himself out of town and aging factored into this) and out of that group I arbitrarily picked them. if you don't think they belong in that group or just emotionally cannot stand them being the arbitrary choice out of that group, fine, imagine the trade is with another team. This is a Blues focused post and a rare time where the trade partner is not a vital detail in the trade, make yourself happy
Forum: Armchair-GM20 juill. 2020 à 15 h 43
Sujet: Keeping Pietrangelo and letting Gunnarsson go part 2 the 2022ing
<div class="quote"><div class="quote_t">Quoting: <b>TheEarthmaster</b></div><div>I use evolving hockey, mostly because their explanations were the easiest for me to understand on how they calculated their stats :).

I'm a patron (which I highly recommend if you have a few bucks a month- not the easiest sell in a pandemic I'm sure) so not 100% on what is available without that, but here's basically the stuff that's informing my Blais&gt;Barbashev opinion

<a href="https://imgur.com/a/Hg1XZ87" rel="nofollow noreferrer noopener" target="_blank">https://imgur.com/a/Hg1XZ87</a>.

Obviously, not saying Blais is a world-beating talent or anything, but for my money, he has had a better impact this season on both offense and defense than Barbashev (not PK), and he has the ability to play up the lineup that Barbashev doesn't have, AND he's cheaper, at least for 2021-22 season. So, if the choice is between them (and again, I really really would like it to not be because I do think Barbashev brings some useful stuff to the table), then it should be Blais over Barbashev every time. I get that Barbashev is a center and that is valuable but we have a lot of center depth on this team already. (O'Reilly/Schenn/Thomas/Sundqvist/DLR/Bozak for now). If he had the talent to step up and be a 3C, then maybe that would be more valuable to keep over Blais, because that could be a future hole on this team, but so far he hasn't done that.</div></div>

oh wow, I wonder why their graphs are so different from the tables on <a href="https://evolving-hockey.com/?_inputs_&amp;std_sk_range=%22Seasons%22&amp;std_sk_pos=%22All%22&amp;std_sk_str=%225v5%22&amp;std_sk_age1=%2217%22&amp;std_sk_season=%2220192020%22&amp;std_sk_span=%22Regular%22&amp;std_sk_group=%22Team%2C%20Season%22&amp;std_sk_type=%22Rates%22&amp;dir=%22Skater%20Tables%22&amp;std_sk_toi=%2250%22&amp;std_sk_dft_yr=%22All%22&amp;std_sk_age2=%2250%22&amp;std_sk_table=%22Relative%20to%20Teammate%22&amp;std_sk_team=%22All%22&amp;std_sk_adj=%22Score%20%26%20Venue%22&amp;std_sk_info=%22No%22&amp;std_sk_players=%5B%22Ivan%20Barbashev%22%2C%22Sammy%20Blais%22%2C%22Zach%20Sanford%22%2C%22Jaden%20Schwartz%22%5D" rel="nofollow noreferrer noopener" target="_blank">https://evolving-hockey.com/?_inputs_&amp;std_sk_range=%22Seasons%22&amp;std_sk_pos=%22All%22&amp;std_sk_str=%225v5%22&amp;std_sk_age1=%2217%22&amp;std_sk_season=%2220192020%22&amp;std_sk_span=%22Regular%22&amp;std_sk_group=%22Team%2C%20Season%22&amp;std_sk_type=%22Rates%22&amp;dir=%22Skater%20Tables%22&amp;std_sk_toi=%2250%22&amp;std_sk_dft_yr=%22All%22&amp;std_sk_age2=%2250%22&amp;std_sk_table=%22Relative%20to%20Teammate%22&amp;std_sk_team=%22All%22&amp;std_sk_adj=%22Score%20%26%20Venue%22&amp;std_sk_info=%22No%22&amp;std_sk_players=%5B%22Ivan%20Barbashev%22%2C%22Sammy%20Blais%22%2C%22Zach%20Sanford%22%2C%22Jaden%20Schwartz%22%5D</a> (you have to add xGF/60 + xGA/60 etc etc). I usually like those visuals too. i may have to buck up on Patreon

Also yeah, Steen has aged VERY gracefully, he just costs a lot and isn't exactly a top 6 guy anymore
Forum: Armchair-GM20 juill. 2020 à 15 h 37
Sujet: Keeping Pietrangelo and letting Gunnarsson go part 2 the 2022ing
<div class="quote"><div class="quote_t">Quoting: <b>TheEarthmaster</b></div><div>I don't know that I ever see Walker being a regular in the lineup but he's clearly good enough to be an NHL player and should be one of our cheap scratches who gets in 30/40 games a year.

Next year is going to be significant because, assuming Schenn gets moved to wing permanently at some point once Thomas nails down a center spot in the Top 6, that second line LW job is going to be a decision between Blais/Sanford/Schwartz. Schwartz is currently the most effective, but costs the most and would have to commit the most term to. Sanford has the talent and found a little consistency this year but also way outperformed his expected goals (that four goal game helped). Blais looked the best and most consistent without being an analytical liability anywhere, but has injury troubles and who knows if he can really elevate there all the time.

Personally I don't want to commit a lot of money to Schwartz. He has had both consistency and injury troubles in very recent memory as well, and he probably prices himself out.

Ideally I think our roster (semi-long term) looks like this:

Schenn-O'Reilly-Tarasenko
Blais/Sanford-Thomas-Kyrou
Blais/Sanford- 3C - Kostin
MacEachern-Barbashev-Sundqvist
Walker/DLR/Alexandrov/Poganski pick your poison

Dunn-Pietrangelo
Perunovich/Mikkola - Parayko
Perunovich/Mikkola - 3RHD
Bortuzzo

The key to all of this is moving Faulk though. Sanford/Blais/Schwartz/Walker, whoever you want to talk about- we are using our cap space no more inefficiently than on Faulk (assuming Pietrangelo stays of course). We have ample cap space to keep everyone else if we can move Faulk out somehow.</div></div>

also if Faulk goes Perron stays another year, Blais stays and we are just looking at the 7th D, things get easy. That said I think because the contract is a boat anchor people don't appreciate how good Faulk is when he was lined with Pietrangelo and that's fair because that contract sucks already. I'd love to see Seattle take him but I doubt that happens unfortunately and we should get used to appreciating how good he is because he's probably here to stay
Forum: Armchair-GM20 juill. 2020 à 15 h 35
Sujet: Keeping Pietrangelo and letting Gunnarsson go part 2 the 2022ing
<div class="quote"><div class="quote_t">Quoting: <b>TheEarthmaster</b></div><div>I don't know that I ever see Walker being a regular in the lineup but he's clearly good enough to be an NHL player and should be one of our cheap scratches who gets in 30/40 games a year.

Next year is going to be significant because, assuming Schenn gets moved to wing permanently at some point once Thomas nails down a center spot in the Top 6, that second line LW job is going to be a decision between Blais/Sanford/Schwartz. Schwartz is currently the most effective, but costs the most and would have to commit the most term to. Sanford has the talent and found a little consistency this year but also way outperformed his expected goals (that four goal game helped). Blais looked the best and most consistent without being an analytical liability anywhere, but has injury troubles and who knows if he can really elevate there all the time.

Personally I don't want to commit a lot of money to Schwartz. He has had both consistency and injury troubles in very recent memory as well, and he probably prices himself out.

Ideally I think our roster (semi-long term) looks like this:

Schenn-O'Reilly-Tarasenko
Blais/Sanford-Thomas-Kyrou
Blais/Sanford- 3C - Kostin
MacEachern-Barbashev-Sundqvist
Walker/DLR/Alexandrov/Poganski pick your poison

Dunn-Pietrangelo
Perunovich/Mikkola - Parayko
Perunovich/Mikkola - 3RHD
Bortuzzo

The key to all of this is moving Faulk though. Sanford/Blais/Schwartz/Walker, whoever you want to talk about- we are using our cap space no more inefficiently than on Faulk (assuming Pietrangelo stays of course). We have ample cap space to keep everyone else if we can move Faulk out somehow.</div></div>

that's an interesting notion because Schenn is a legit top 6 center and a good one and now he's signed long term. Does he get moved to center at all? Does Thomas settle in to either LW for O'Reilly or 3rd line center when Bozak leaves? Thomas has yet to even being a regular NHL center yet as good as he is, I'm not sure Schenn get's moved off for him. Him taking Schenn's spot at top 6 center that seemed inevitable had a lot to do with Schenn walking

Also I was all on board your analytical skepticism towards Barbashev (though I think playing center and primary points mean more than you think and relative to linemates at least evolving hockey and moneypuck actually have Barbie as better) but Schwartz has long been a possession God &amp; Sanford has very good CF% and xGF% (over 51% on both each of the last 2 years) , let alone points and reputation, why is he even in the same convo as those two for other LW in the top 6? I'd really like to see a source that says Blais has better underlying stats than Schwartz and/or Sanford because I'd be very interested in what the methodology is that arrives there because looking at the components separately I can't find a possible path
Forum: Armchair-GM20 juill. 2020 à 15 h 26
Sujet: Keeping Pietrangelo and letting Gunnarsson go part 2 the 2022ing
<div class="quote"><div class="quote_t">Quoting: <b>hanson493</b></div><div>thomas was already injured, the hit made it worse... and im sorry but krug goes right through the shoulder. ive watched it a million times ive argued here a million times nobody is changing my mind otherwise. that play doesnt happen if perron is whistled for interference on krug by sitting on him and ripping his helmet off but hey im all for letting em play. bigger the hits the better. i dont care about most head shots alot of people want it out of the game, its a contact sport designed for entertainment and unfortunately violence sells... but the grz hit was eerily similar to the one savard took and those are absolute no - no 's in my book. open ice you at least have a chance. thomas could have avoided contact, and krug stopped skating well before contact. regardless. once that game gets to 2-0 on marchands mess up it was over.</div></div>

I don't disagree with the fact that the play doesn't happen if Perron is correctly whistled for interference but that play did end Thomas's entire playoffs, i didn't bring up the "what ifs" and i don't caree how much you said you watched the play it was aimed at his head and jars his head, if it hits shoulder first because Thomas defends himself (which I don't see that it did when I watch it so I'm not sure how youa re so sure) it had the same intention and effect as a headhunting

so again, it was a good series, I don't think any of us should celebrate our teams violence or think that it's a personal vice of given players and not an unfortunate sportwide culture that has gotten better since the past and nonetheless should still be worked at to end, but we can celebrate what did happen, unless you want me to gather an army of deligitmizers of 2011 from Vancouver. The fact of the matter is teh Blues were the best team form January on, won a cup they deserved, and are finally given the title the franchise has long deserved but never elevated itself to, the fact that Boston was so good and gave us such a run until the end speaks to how good the team (especially Tuukka rask) was/is, but the cup has been awarded and it's time to move one. This isn't exactly Tampa/Calgary game 6 and nobody thinks their team should lose the cup, but the cups are what they are. i'm playing around with the Blues theoretical future, no need for axe grinding in the comments
Forum: Armchair-GM20 juill. 2020 à 15 h 19
Sujet: Keeping Pietrangelo and letting Gunnarsson go part 2 the 2022ing
<div class="quote"><div class="quote_t">Quoting: <b>TheEarthmaster</b></div><div>The thing with Barbashev is his advanced stats are really not good. This season, Barbashev's Goals Above Replacement is -5 (despite him scoring 10+ goals). Wins Above Replacement is -1, versus Blais' 0.3 and 0.1 in those categories (basically neutral). He's a lot of fun to watch, he scores some goals, he's physical and fights people and that's all well and good, but it's not translating to effectiveness anywhere other than the PK (and I question how much of that is really him and how much of that is him playing with Sundqvist). His defensive metrics at even strength are abysmal. So this whole thing that he's "really good defensively" I think is a reputation that has been mistakenly developed.

It's true that Blais can't play center like Barbashev can, but I would say he's actually more versatile because he can play higher up in the lineup than Barbashev, who I think can't really elevate above the fourth line. I would also say Blais has gotten better every year he's been in the league. It's also allocation of resources- you're already paying Sundqvist 2.75 million to be a fourth liner, which is kind of a lot even though that's a fine contract. I don't know if we should really tie up more million+ contracts in the fourth line. Blais, at least, would be a third liner in this scenario, and, since he has more upside, perhaps higher.

That's why looking at straight points can be misleading- it's no good to put up a bunch of points if people also are putting up a bunch of points against you (the royal you) because you actively made it easier for them to do that- which is what the metrics tell us about Barabshev. People look past that though because he scores some goals.

The real solution is that if Pietrangelo stays there is absolutely no reason to have Faulk on this roster and we should do everything we can to move him. We have more effective options for him in the top four on both hands, so it's a third pairing defensman being payed 6.5 million and not contributing to special teams and that is a worse use of cap space than any combination of Barbashev/Blais/MacEachern.</div></div>

oh that's totally fair, I'm looking at expect goal for % relative to linemates. without being relative to linemates you are looking at Barbashe being at 49% xGF and Blais being at 48 xGF% career but Blais being at 50% this year and Barbie being at only 45%, a stark difference (stats per evolving hockey) but if you go relative to teammates (misnomer, because it;'s really relative to line mates in different combos) Blais is -.08GF% relative and Barbashev is .41 relative GF% (admittedly basically on on defense, dude can play D) also on the points it's a primary points difference, while both have the same secondary assists per 60 but those are just noise anyway and both are the same at scoring goals per 60 (this last year, again if you go back farther Barbie has a bigger bump, he actual had a pretty down year this year, likely due to exclusive relegation to the 4th line rather than as people seem to forget, him playing up and down the lines like Blais and Sundqvist in the past) where Barbie gets a huge bump (other than sustaining it through more playing time and putting up better defensive numbers) is primary assists where he puts up almost double the rate of Blais

All of that is 5v5 of course, Barbashev plays more on ST mostly on the kill where the team as a whole does well but a lot of that can be noise

Out of curiousity since WAR is a good concise stat but it can come from different sources with different methodology and I'm curious the breakdown where you get it looking at the evolving hockey and moneypuck breakdowns of possession and primary points (which really is the same any source)
Forum: Armchair-GM20 juill. 2020 à 14 h 57
Sujet: Keeping Pietrangelo and letting Gunnarsson go part 2 the 2022ing
<div class="quote"><div class="quote_t">Quoting: <b>hanson493</b></div><div>I truly think that series goes so differently if grz doesnt get boarded.</div></div>

If we go that route, I'm sure it goes the same maybe better for the Blues if Krug doesn't take a dirty headshot at Thomas ending his series. At least the Gryz boarding won't be looked at as an admirable highlight moment for years to come because of some cool hair.

Either way, unfortunately there is a terrible "tough guy" culture and "Playoffs are a gauntlet" narrative in the sport and best we can do is celebrate the success of our teams that did happen &amp; work to push those attitudes out of it because nobody should like those dirty hits and most people don't but even the cleanest players are driven to dole them out in the playoffs for glory &amp; self preservation (hit them before they hit you)
Forum: Armchair-GM20 juill. 2020 à 14 h 41
Sujet: Keeping Pietrangelo and letting Gunnarsson go part 2 the 2022ing
<div class="quote"><div class="quote_t">Quoting: <b>BeastModeUnknown</b></div><div>I find myself looking at Walker getting a higher role too Sanford should probably be one to leave tho. He’s inconsistent</div></div>

do what? Look I get on a value for the money level him being maybe the least worth it depending on what he costs, but the dude who has played best on the left of ROR, who has put up 20 and 30 points respectively, being on pace for 30 &amp; 40 points respectively, all while looking the best in the playoffs including looking greet in the SCF &amp; putting up over 50% CF%&amp; xGF% would ahve to be pretty expoensive to be the one not to keep and he just doesn't really cost that much? Why are people so blindly in love with Blais?

I get it, he isn't terrible, his slapper against Bishop in the playoffs was fun, he had a good AHL year and he doesn't look like he's drowning on a top 6 line, but he's a bottom 6 player who makes some hits. Please everyone, get over him, he's an ok player that's really it
Forum: Armchair-GM20 juill. 2020 à 12 h 25
Sujet: Keeping Pietrangelo and letting Gunnarsson go part 2 the 2022ing
<div class="quote"><div class="quote_t">Quoting: <b>TheEarthmaster</b></div><div>Would rather move Barbashev and/or pay him less than get rid of Blais, especially if it means MacEachern (who I love) is playing on the third line.</div></div>

that's fair he's a likeable talented player and in that case Barbie just walks.

I personally like Barbie more and think Doug does too because he's a good defensive forward that can play center or wing and has put up over 25 points in a season twice over the slightly below average defensive winger who can throw the **** out of his weight around but has never put up even 15 points and only barely put up a 25 point pace once that is Sammy Blais. To me and I assume Armstrong that's worth the extra half mil, especially when you can find what value, however small, you can get for Blais.

If you can find another worthwhile and easy to make happen $600k of space I think Macmac gets moved over Blais and we all win but I think that takes enough gymnastics with the roster for a pwinger who doesn't mean that much that I can't see Doug not just moving Blais (or hell maybe Bortuzzo instead but he also likes Bortuzzo and I'm not sure who replaces him at RD - or LD if you move Faulk back to the right - for the minimum to make him movable since i'm assuming Mikkola has already made the jump)
Forum: Armchair-GM20 juill. 2020 à 9 h 55
Sujet: Keeping Pitrangelo and letting Gunnarsson go
<div class="quote"><div class="quote_t">Quoting: <b>Trickster</b></div><div>Need to give another asset to Red wings, this is not enough</div></div>

I don't even know what to say to this. I know this site is often either people proposing trades that are like Autson Matthews for a 4th 50% salary retained or "lol, you want Martin Jones and you're only giving up 2 1sts and Colton Parayko" so whether it's the poster or the commenter that is punchdrunk on homerism the response is always "not enough" but I took a lot of feedback from multiple posts including from Detroit fans and while I thought this trade is more fair if it's Steen, Allen, a 2nd and a 3rd for a 4th and a prospect, people were like "you need to put a first in there".
The consensus is that Allen has value (not tons but some value) and brings back between a 3rd and a 4th, probably a 4th. Steen + a 2nd &amp; 3rd if a team is gonna play him or Steen + a 1st if a team is gonna buy him out bring back between a 4th and a 6th or an equivalent prospect. I mashed them together and between specifically trying to set my homerism aside, trying to factor in that Yzerman is a good GM and factoring in the Blues leverage I took an intentionally sub-optimal trade that fits the Blues and went "this makes sense"

If you wanna tell me what "another piece" is and why Steen + 1st and Allen bringing back less than what they are consensus assumed to being back in separate trades is "not enough" then maybe that's helpful but just "not enough" is not remotely useful feedback, i'm sorry to go off but it's just not helpful or sensible in any way &amp; I don't understand why you took the time to type it out let alone hit "submit". Please, I like feedback, it helped me arrive at this particular proposed roster, but it has to be helpful feedback
Forum: Armchair-GM20 juill. 2020 à 9 h 13
Sujet: Fitz Fixes
So Parayko is probably not for sale just situationally, the Blues are staring down either their captain walking or shedding cap so they can resign their captain which also means jumping inot a win now mode, a young borderline elite defenseman going the other way breaks both of those plans and only moves if they are blowing things up
Beyond that, woods and a 1st is a paltry return for Colton

Also Sundqvist doesn't hold a lot of trade value or look that great on paper but the Blues really like him and he is a big part of Berube's scheme.

A more realistic trade would be going after Faulk and Barbashev or so and even then you could probably easily make it work for something that seems fair and fitting value wise but it may not fit with the Blues competitive window.

The more likely Devils trade with the Blues would be like a Gunnarsson pick up on the cheap or a Steen + pick for nothing pick up to add some good forward D veteran presence with the cap space and nab a pick with it by leveraging cap space
Forum: Armchair-GM17 juill. 2020 à 16 h 46
Sujet: Pietrangelo will sign with the Blues
<div class="quote"><div class="quote_t">Quoting: <b>Sicarius</b></div><div>Steen's cap is 5.75 million but his actual salary is 3.5. The Blues should persuade him to retire. He's not going to want to waive his NTC and play one last year for some crappy team. He loves living in St. Louis so why not offer him a coaching role like Jackman and other alumni are doing? The coaching salary would offset some of the money he's due. I would put it to him as nicely as possible but it's either retire or ride the buses in the minors to end your career. There's nothing left for him to accomplish and he's simply eating a roster spot. I think he retires.

If the salary cap would have gone up as expected Pietrangelo might see 9m but I doubt he does now.</div></div>

Pietrangelo is still the top FA on the market, I'd bet he could get 9. Also convincing Steen to retire sounds awfully mafioso and is easier taken care of by buying him out. so again, you are stuck getting rid of another 3.5 in cap to resign the captain, or you trade him away (packaged with maybe a second, possibly a 1st, if he's getting bought out as part of the deal then definitely a 1st) and let the other team buy him out, that is how you "convince him to retire" and then he could even resign with someone else at the min, hell he could resign at the min with the Blues once that happens (probably won't just to not piss other teams off when you can simply extend RFA Jacob De La Rose in his place but still)
Forum: Armchair-GM17 juill. 2020 à 16 h 13