dp6154

dp6154
Membre depuis
10 jui 2019
Équipe préférée
Blues de St-Louis
Deuxième équipe préférée
Canucks de Vancouver
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213
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0,48
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20
Forum: Armchair-GM 8 sep à 14 h 53
Forum: Armchair-GM 8 sep à 14 h 34
Forum: Armchair-GM 8 sep à 14 h 31
Forum: Armchair-GM 4 aoû à 9 h 15
<div class="quote"><div class="quote_t">Quoting: <b>dp6154</b></div><div>I mostly agree but a few things.

One is that while I worry you are correct on Faulk and maybe this is me hoping too much, the writing on the wall-ish assumption seems a bit strong and I don't think they put on the "we'll talk to his agent while in town" dog and pony early in the year, around when they signed other extensions and before we knew the Blues were winning without Tarasenko most of the year, if the writing was on the wall. Army is a pretty risk averse GM, he like relationships with other guys and what he sees as bets because you gotta have value but also safe bets, so the Faulk deal seemed like security (that poetically could sink things). That said I do think it's sadly most likely because Pietro clearly wants to test the waters or we would have heard about negotiations during the COVID break and any team could sweep him off his feet with an offer, so I'll swap 20% of that and clearing cap space, leaving it 50-40 Pietro leaving vs clearing cap (obviously these numbers are wholly arbitrary by both of us but to reflect our respective confidence in said scenarios I think this is an appropriate shift f not less important than the whole comment)

Two is that I do see the trade away to celar cap not necessarily happening in one trade, but very possibly. While it's probably more likely for say a Sharks or Wild team seeking Allen toi trade for him and a Steen dump being separate, something like Detroit taking both to get a 1st wouldn't be shocking (I also agree that I wouldn't be surprised if Gunnarsson is as good as gone, I know I'm papering over most agreement with "yeah I mostly agree" but I want to point this one out becuase I don't think it should get confused as me thinking it doesn't happen when I say one trade)

Speaking of one trade and risk averse GM this brings me to my third and largest contention, i disagree on goalies. I know they seemed like a tandem team for a while but that was really just because Moose was good and Army likes someone to prove it in the NHL for a season before handing them the reigns. Moose was brought on as a relative cheap journeyman to be a clear backup, as was Hutton, in between Allen was set to be Moose's backup when Miller walked which is the exact type of risk you discuss the Blues avoiding and they took that risk, then Chad Johnson was brought in to make it clear to Allen that he wasn't in a tandem, then traded away and it was reach into the minors time. Meanwhile entering this year, Binnington hadn't proven he could do it for a whole year and Husso, this biggest Blues goalie prospects since Allen and arguably with bishop the second or third biggest Blues goalie prospect in the last generation until the likely mostly injury caused hiccup last year, was coming off of an injury riddled and bad season. Now Binnington has proven himself, Allen has a little trade value is is almost 100% walking after next year anyway, and Husso is healthy, ready, and looking good. his hype train has slowed down and Binnington is the clear future starter assuming clean contract negotiations but the Blues aren't signing tons of extensions to forwards and pushing themselves against captain loss risking cap trouble to keep spending 4+M on a backup. Husso will step into that role

Also I take that Steen retirement and maybe lower the % a bit because he could just force the Blues to buy him out ,not sure why he would pass on over 3M to be a "team guy" and retire. more likely he is the team guy by waiving his NTC or resigning to a cheaper AAV the way Bouwmeester had been doing if Pietro walks

Otherwise really good write up and work! thanks for the great discussion!</div></div>

I will Also Amend if Allen goes to Minny the Blues could just bring back Stalock. That takes away from the draft capital return and doesn't bring the best backup but he's serviceable and costs the same as Husso and as much as the team like Husso again risk averse Doug Armstrong he can keep Stalock until Husso is for sure ready then dump him. Minny would have the cap space and need to upgrade goalies. But I stand by save that specific scenario I think Husso is the backup next year
Forum: Armchair-GM 4 aoû à 9 h 06
I mostly agree but a few things.

One is that while I worry you are correct on Faulk and maybe this is me hoping too much, the writing on the wall-ish assumption seems a bit strong and I don't think they put on the "we'll talk to his agent while in town" dog and pony early in the year, around when they signed other extensions and before we knew the Blues were winning without Tarasenko most of the year, if the writing was on the wall. Army is a pretty risk averse GM, he like relationships with other guys and what he sees as bets because you gotta have value but also safe bets, so the Faulk deal seemed like security (that poetically could sink things). That said I do think it's sadly most likely because Pietro clearly wants to test the waters or we would have heard about negotiations during the COVID break and any team could sweep him off his feet with an offer, so I'll swap 20% of that and clearing cap space, leaving it 50-40 Pietro leaving vs clearing cap (obviously these numbers are wholly arbitrary by both of us but to reflect our respective confidence in said scenarios I think this is an appropriate shift f not less important than the whole comment)

Two is that I do see the trade away to celar cap not necessarily happening in one trade, but very possibly. While it's probably more likely for say a Sharks or Wild team seeking Allen toi trade for him and a Steen dump being separate, something like Detroit taking both to get a 1st wouldn't be shocking (I also agree that I wouldn't be surprised if Gunnarsson is as good as gone, I know I'm papering over most agreement with "yeah I mostly agree" but I want to point this one out becuase I don't think it should get confused as me thinking it doesn't happen when I say one trade)

Speaking of one trade and risk averse GM this brings me to my third and largest contention, i disagree on goalies. I know they seemed like a tandem team for a while but that was really just because Moose was good and Army likes someone to prove it in the NHL for a season before handing them the reigns. Moose was brought on as a relative cheap journeyman to be a clear backup, as was Hutton, in between Allen was set to be Moose's backup when Miller walked which is the exact type of risk you discuss the Blues avoiding and they took that risk, then Chad Johnson was brought in to make it clear to Allen that he wasn't in a tandem, then traded away and it was reach into the minors time. Meanwhile entering this year, Binnington hadn't proven he could do it for a whole year and Husso, this biggest Blues goalie prospects since Allen and arguably with bishop the second or third biggest Blues goalie prospect in the last generation until the likely mostly injury caused hiccup last year, was coming off of an injury riddled and bad season. Now Binnington has proven himself, Allen has a little trade value is is almost 100% walking after next year anyway, and Husso is healthy, ready, and looking good. his hype train has slowed down and Binnington is the clear future starter assuming clean contract negotiations but the Blues aren't signing tons of extensions to forwards and pushing themselves against captain loss risking cap trouble to keep spending 4+M on a backup. Husso will step into that role

Also I take that Steen retirement and maybe lower the % a bit because he could just force the Blues to buy him out ,not sure why he would pass on over 3M to be a "team guy" and retire. more likely he is the team guy by waiving his NTC or resigning to a cheaper AAV the way Bouwmeester had been doing if Pietro walks

Otherwise really good write up and work! thanks for the great discussion!
Forum: Armchair-GM29 jui à 12 h 18
Sujet: Moving Cap
Forum: Armchair-GM28 jui à 16 h 24
Sujet: Moving Cap
<div class="quote"><div class="quote_t">Quoting: <b>dca919</b></div><div>Detroit declines. They'd rather use the 2nd round pick to acquire Alexandar Georgiev from the Rangers.

You do realize that there will be a flood of goalies on the free agent market with little buyers right? Buffalo, Chicago, and Detroit and that's about it for starter's jobs.

Expected goalies on the market that will re-sign with teams or go to Cup contenders:
Braden Holtby (Washington), Robin Lehner (Vegas), Jacob Markstrom (Vancouver), Jaroslav Halak (Boston), Corey Crawford (Chicago) and Anton Khudobin (Dallas).

Career backups that the Wings could target for nothing:
Cam Talbot (Calgary), Thomas Greiss (Islanders) and Aaron Dell (San Jose).

Available in a trade:
Matt Murray or Tristan Jarry, Jake Allen, (Marc-Andre Fleury if Vegas chooses Lehner)

Might be available given they have 1 year left on a contract and might no longer fit the payroll:
Devan Dubnyk, Pekka Rinne

That's a large sellers list with few buyers...that means the market will drive down prices. Add in the fact that St. Louis is desperate to cut payroll to re-sign Pietrangelo and I doubt Allen goes for even a 3rd rounder.</div></div>

While I agree that Allen won't go for a 2nd (I think a 4th), you realize every single goalie on that list except 2 is a worse choice in goal than Allen. teams can always pick up someone off the streets (or hell even from the minors) if performance doesn't mean chit. Performance kind of matters though, that's why teams make trades. Also almost everyone on that list will require more than one year &amp; with the excpetion of Lehner represents another job opening.

One year of very good veteran goaltending from a former highly touted prospect who could always become your long term plan if you see they fit over the next year for a mid round pick is pretty valuable
Forum: Armchair-GM24 jui à 10 h 06
Forum: Armchair-GM23 jui à 9 h 49
Forum: Armchair-GM23 jui à 9 h 31
<div class="quote"><div class="quote_t">Quoting: <b>TheEarthmaster</b></div><div>I think once you look at the context of Faulk's prior success though it becomes less surprising.

I've seen so much "oh wait until he rediscovers his Hurricanes game" among Blues fans but people seem to forget that the Hurricanes freaking sucked for pretty much his entire career until the last year he was there. That's not Faulk's fault- the Hurricanes didn't have a goaltender and really didn't have any skilled forwards either- but it explains a lot about how he "generated" offense. Faulk takes a lot of shots, which seems like a good thing, but it's only a good thing if he's converting on a lot of those shots, which he doesn't. He's not an elite scorer- again, no biggie, most in the NHL aren't- but if he's not an elite scorer he shouldn't be taking that many shots especially as a defenseman, since most of the time those shots are coming way out from the net and have a little chance of going in anyway, and a high chance of stopping play or worse, turning over to the other team.

This was fine on Carolina, because, like, were any of his teammates all that much better of an option? Well, they are now, and I don't think it's a coincidence that he was expendable once the Canes got good. His play style isn't effective if you have skilled forwards to take shots closer to the net that have a better chance of going in- in fact, it's a drag. Well, the Blues have skilled forwards too, so it's not working here just like it wasn't working there. Couple that with his fine-at-best defensive play and you have a seven year contract for a player who is elite at nothing- never a good thing to have.

If he really wants to be on a contender but also be a part of the solution, he needs to play for someone like, idk, Dallas, who can't score goals to save their lives but have the defense thing locked down so if the other team gains possession it's not a big deal.</div></div>

yeah I feel like it's reliving shattenkirk without the actual PP QBing, though I think he has at least looked good paired with Pietrangelo so maybe we'll get enough of a sample size to actually see the analytics there and see fi he really wasn't that bad of a fit, just a bad contract
Forum: Armchair-GM23 jui à 9 h 26
<div class="quote"><div class="quote_t">Quoting: <b>STLBlues17</b></div><div>Nobody has cap space though and I don’t see Armstrong trading a first to move Steen.</div></div>

why not though? I mean I get this draft is supposed to be deep and the Blues are thin on picks (turn out if you go all in you have repercussions later, super duper worth it of course, that's why teams go all in, if anything the Blues going all in for a center two years in a row finally breaking the great drought might be the best case ever to point to for going all in paying off, but nonetheless) but Armstrong ahs never shown fear in trading away a first, even if he's not acquiring a big name upgrade this time.

Also why would he, in his 10 years here, he's not had a 1st round pick 4 times and his 5 or 6 years (depending on if you credit him or Pleau with 2010 since he barely had time to get stuff in order and was busy with the Halak trade for most of his early tenure) that he did have a first, he's since the great Schwartz/Tarasenko round gotten Thomas and if you wanna count the beautiful window of hope for Fabbri before his knees happened, and that's really it of consequence, and yet the Blues are defending cup champs, in a position to win again this year, and only looking at a slight downgrade next year if they retain Pietrangelo putting them in another great position next year. That doesn't mean he should devalue firsts but if ti makes sense those aren't exactly his primary tool of success

Also just on a general level I know looking at the thin prospects and lack of 1st and 2nds these next two years looks dire but if it comes down to keeping Steen or dumping him with a 1st to bring Pietrangelo back, collapsing a playoff window by losing your best player and leaving yourself somewhere between middling get into the playoffs but not far team and rebuild, with very little to build off of (see: The wild or the sharks) over one late first seems, yeah that's just super duper unwise. I think that's the perspective that gets lost when you look at a 1st rounder in a vacuum or panic over a lack of picks or think about "getting nothing" with a cap dump to retain a guy (not sure which of these 3 positions either you are coming from or you are assuming Armstrong is coming from)
Forum: Armchair-GM23 jui à 9 h 12