SalarySwishSalarySwish
Avatar

dp6154

dp6154
Membre depuis
10 juill. 2019
Équipe favorite
Blues de St-Louis
Deuxième équipe favorite
Canucks de Vancouver
Messages dans les forums
213
Messages par jour
0.1
Forum: Armchair-GM8 sept. 2020 à 14 h 53
Sujet: Keeping Pietrangelo After Allen Trade and Tarasenko Injury
<div class="quote"><div class="quote_t">Quoting: <b>Alfie11</b></div><div>I don’t think Gunnarsson is better than Gio, Hanifin, or Valimaki is right now, and while he might be better than Kylington or Mackey, they’re younger, cheaper, more promising, and don’t require assets to acquire since one’s an RFA and the other is signed already. I doubt we bring back Forbort, and if we bring back Gus it’ll be to play 3RD/PP1 in a limited role that makes full use of his offensive capabilities so there isn’t a conflict there but that’s kinda beside the point. Regarding Dube, he’s proven he’s a more than capable 3rd liner and with his speed and skill he projects to break into the top 6 soon. We don’t have very many young forwards that project as top 6 players so we can’t afford to trade the ones we do have for aging rentals</div></div>

ok well I strongly disagree on the value of Gunnarsson but I do appreciate the feedback and I have edited looking at Toronto because I didn't realize that Dube was that highly thought of in the org. Thank you
Forum: Armchair-GM8 sept. 2020 à 14 h 34
Sujet: Keeping Pietrangelo After Allen Trade and Tarasenko Injury
<div class="quote"><div class="quote_t">Quoting: <b>Blueman96</b></div><div>I did a "Tarasenko to LTIR" interactive GM team with a stupid long explanation. I don't think anything more complicated needs to happen than Tarasenko just going on LTIR. If I'm correct in my understanding, the Blues could exceed the cap by that number.

There's no question Tank will start next season (whenever that is) on LTIR. The $7.5 million AAV question is when he'll be ready to get back on the ice. In bluntly short terms I advocated for assuming he's LTIR the whole year and if he's not then it's a pleasant surprise and you figure the cap implications then. But you approach the offseason with the belief you will have his full cap hit as cap relief. Considering this is his 3rd surgery on that shoulder in a 18 month timeframe I don't think that stance is as aggressive as some people who disagree with me would claim.</div></div>

yeah that was the main part of this though finding a young offensive forward for a team that wants a D was a big deal too and that's an open question. I know Tarasenko is estimated out until at least the end of March and with the season next year starting in dEcember or January and trying to be completed including playoffs by august I assumed end of June/mid July so it was at least half the season on LTIR, and everything after that is either cap gravy or hopefully good again (obviously won't be THAT kind of good agan) Tarasenko
Forum: Armchair-GM8 sept. 2020 à 14 h 31
Sujet: Keeping Pietrangelo After Allen Trade and Tarasenko Injury
<div class="quote"><div class="quote_t">Quoting: <b>Alfie11</b></div><div>Calgary is not trading Dube at all, and has no interest in trading for what would be their 6LD</div></div>

they're no doubt bringing back Forbort and Gustafsson and you think Gunnarsson is worse than both + Hanifin + Kylington ?! (he's probably better than every LD on that roster save obviously Giordano).

That said not interested in losing Dube is fair. I thought it was a fair value and good fit but I don't know every FOs believe in their own respective prospects and even if fans usually waaaaaaay overrate their own prospects or own Gms love of them, it is a thing and other teams fans are going to be the best source of info
So, thank you for the feedback
Forum: Armchair-GM4 août 2020 à 9 h 15
Sujet: a few scenarios
<div class="quote"><div class="quote_t">Quoting: <b>dp6154</b></div><div>I mostly agree but a few things.

One is that while I worry you are correct on Faulk and maybe this is me hoping too much, the writing on the wall-ish assumption seems a bit strong and I don't think they put on the "we'll talk to his agent while in town" dog and pony early in the year, around when they signed other extensions and before we knew the Blues were winning without Tarasenko most of the year, if the writing was on the wall. Army is a pretty risk averse GM, he like relationships with other guys and what he sees as bets because you gotta have value but also safe bets, so the Faulk deal seemed like security (that poetically could sink things). That said I do think it's sadly most likely because Pietro clearly wants to test the waters or we would have heard about negotiations during the COVID break and any team could sweep him off his feet with an offer, so I'll swap 20% of that and clearing cap space, leaving it 50-40 Pietro leaving vs clearing cap (obviously these numbers are wholly arbitrary by both of us but to reflect our respective confidence in said scenarios I think this is an appropriate shift f not less important than the whole comment)

Two is that I do see the trade away to celar cap not necessarily happening in one trade, but very possibly. While it's probably more likely for say a Sharks or Wild team seeking Allen toi trade for him and a Steen dump being separate, something like Detroit taking both to get a 1st wouldn't be shocking (I also agree that I wouldn't be surprised if Gunnarsson is as good as gone, I know I'm papering over most agreement with "yeah I mostly agree" but I want to point this one out becuase I don't think it should get confused as me thinking it doesn't happen when I say one trade)

Speaking of one trade and risk averse GM this brings me to my third and largest contention, i disagree on goalies. I know they seemed like a tandem team for a while but that was really just because Moose was good and Army likes someone to prove it in the NHL for a season before handing them the reigns. Moose was brought on as a relative cheap journeyman to be a clear backup, as was Hutton, in between Allen was set to be Moose's backup when Miller walked which is the exact type of risk you discuss the Blues avoiding and they took that risk, then Chad Johnson was brought in to make it clear to Allen that he wasn't in a tandem, then traded away and it was reach into the minors time. Meanwhile entering this year, Binnington hadn't proven he could do it for a whole year and Husso, this biggest Blues goalie prospects since Allen and arguably with bishop the second or third biggest Blues goalie prospect in the last generation until the likely mostly injury caused hiccup last year, was coming off of an injury riddled and bad season. Now Binnington has proven himself, Allen has a little trade value is is almost 100% walking after next year anyway, and Husso is healthy, ready, and looking good. his hype train has slowed down and Binnington is the clear future starter assuming clean contract negotiations but the Blues aren't signing tons of extensions to forwards and pushing themselves against captain loss risking cap trouble to keep spending 4+M on a backup. Husso will step into that role

Also I take that Steen retirement and maybe lower the % a bit because he could just force the Blues to buy him out ,not sure why he would pass on over 3M to be a "team guy" and retire. more likely he is the team guy by waiving his NTC or resigning to a cheaper AAV the way Bouwmeester had been doing if Pietro walks

Otherwise really good write up and work! thanks for the great discussion!</div></div>

I will Also Amend if Allen goes to Minny the Blues could just bring back Stalock. That takes away from the draft capital return and doesn't bring the best backup but he's serviceable and costs the same as Husso and as much as the team like Husso again risk averse Doug Armstrong he can keep Stalock until Husso is for sure ready then dump him. Minny would have the cap space and need to upgrade goalies. But I stand by save that specific scenario I think Husso is the backup next year
Forum: Armchair-GM4 août 2020 à 9 h 6
Sujet: a few scenarios
I mostly agree but a few things.

One is that while I worry you are correct on Faulk and maybe this is me hoping too much, the writing on the wall-ish assumption seems a bit strong and I don't think they put on the "we'll talk to his agent while in town" dog and pony early in the year, around when they signed other extensions and before we knew the Blues were winning without Tarasenko most of the year, if the writing was on the wall. Army is a pretty risk averse GM, he like relationships with other guys and what he sees as bets because you gotta have value but also safe bets, so the Faulk deal seemed like security (that poetically could sink things). That said I do think it's sadly most likely because Pietro clearly wants to test the waters or we would have heard about negotiations during the COVID break and any team could sweep him off his feet with an offer, so I'll swap 20% of that and clearing cap space, leaving it 50-40 Pietro leaving vs clearing cap (obviously these numbers are wholly arbitrary by both of us but to reflect our respective confidence in said scenarios I think this is an appropriate shift f not less important than the whole comment)

Two is that I do see the trade away to celar cap not necessarily happening in one trade, but very possibly. While it's probably more likely for say a Sharks or Wild team seeking Allen toi trade for him and a Steen dump being separate, something like Detroit taking both to get a 1st wouldn't be shocking (I also agree that I wouldn't be surprised if Gunnarsson is as good as gone, I know I'm papering over most agreement with "yeah I mostly agree" but I want to point this one out becuase I don't think it should get confused as me thinking it doesn't happen when I say one trade)

Speaking of one trade and risk averse GM this brings me to my third and largest contention, i disagree on goalies. I know they seemed like a tandem team for a while but that was really just because Moose was good and Army likes someone to prove it in the NHL for a season before handing them the reigns. Moose was brought on as a relative cheap journeyman to be a clear backup, as was Hutton, in between Allen was set to be Moose's backup when Miller walked which is the exact type of risk you discuss the Blues avoiding and they took that risk, then Chad Johnson was brought in to make it clear to Allen that he wasn't in a tandem, then traded away and it was reach into the minors time. Meanwhile entering this year, Binnington hadn't proven he could do it for a whole year and Husso, this biggest Blues goalie prospects since Allen and arguably with bishop the second or third biggest Blues goalie prospect in the last generation until the likely mostly injury caused hiccup last year, was coming off of an injury riddled and bad season. Now Binnington has proven himself, Allen has a little trade value is is almost 100% walking after next year anyway, and Husso is healthy, ready, and looking good. his hype train has slowed down and Binnington is the clear future starter assuming clean contract negotiations but the Blues aren't signing tons of extensions to forwards and pushing themselves against captain loss risking cap trouble to keep spending 4+M on a backup. Husso will step into that role

Also I take that Steen retirement and maybe lower the % a bit because he could just force the Blues to buy him out ,not sure why he would pass on over 3M to be a "team guy" and retire. more likely he is the team guy by waiving his NTC or resigning to a cheaper AAV the way Bouwmeester had been doing if Pietro walks

Otherwise really good write up and work! thanks for the great discussion!
Forum: Armchair-GM29 juill. 2020 à 12 h 18
Sujet: Moving Cap
<div class="quote"><div class="quote_t">Quoting: <b>dca919</b></div><div>You do realize that Detroit doesn't have a goaltender signed beyond next year and doesn't have a single prospect close to being ready to be their starter in the AHL let alone the NHL. They have 35M in cap space this coming year and only 5 contracts on the books for the following year. So taking on a 3-4 year goalie contract isn't an issue.

But if they go the trade route, Allen of a few years ago might have been better than most of those on the list--but that's not the league view outside the bubble of St. Louis. And I'd much rather have the younger Tristan Jarry, Matt Murray, or Alexandar Georgiev if you are going to trade assets for a goalie--even a 4th---which is closer to the cost Allen will cost than the 2nd being insisted on above.</div></div>

ok but I already agreed Allen is going for a 4th and not a 2nd and your personal opinion aside most NHL GMs would like Allen. Also I know Detroit has nobody signed beyond next year, why would they lead a rebuild with a boat anchor when everyone can see the results of the Bob signing last offseason when they can do a dry run and just exxtend Allen if he works or pick up a goalie next year if he doean't? having nobody in the high minors is a reason why Allen does have appeal
Forum: Armchair-GM28 juill. 2020 à 16 h 24
Sujet: Moving Cap
<div class="quote"><div class="quote_t">Quoting: <b>dca919</b></div><div>Detroit declines. They'd rather use the 2nd round pick to acquire Alexandar Georgiev from the Rangers.

You do realize that there will be a flood of goalies on the free agent market with little buyers right? Buffalo, Chicago, and Detroit and that's about it for starter's jobs.

Expected goalies on the market that will re-sign with teams or go to Cup contenders:
Braden Holtby (Washington), Robin Lehner (Vegas), Jacob Markstrom (Vancouver), Jaroslav Halak (Boston), Corey Crawford (Chicago) and Anton Khudobin (Dallas).

Career backups that the Wings could target for nothing:
Cam Talbot (Calgary), Thomas Greiss (Islanders) and Aaron Dell (San Jose).

Available in a trade:
Matt Murray or Tristan Jarry, Jake Allen, (Marc-Andre Fleury if Vegas chooses Lehner)

Might be available given they have 1 year left on a contract and might no longer fit the payroll:
Devan Dubnyk, Pekka Rinne

That's a large sellers list with few buyers...that means the market will drive down prices. Add in the fact that St. Louis is desperate to cut payroll to re-sign Pietrangelo and I doubt Allen goes for even a 3rd rounder.</div></div>

While I agree that Allen won't go for a 2nd (I think a 4th), you realize every single goalie on that list except 2 is a worse choice in goal than Allen. teams can always pick up someone off the streets (or hell even from the minors) if performance doesn't mean chit. Performance kind of matters though, that's why teams make trades. Also almost everyone on that list will require more than one year &amp; with the excpetion of Lehner represents another job opening.

One year of very good veteran goaltending from a former highly touted prospect who could always become your long term plan if you see they fit over the next year for a mid round pick is pretty valuable
Forum: Armchair-GM24 juill. 2020 à 10 h 6
Sujet: If they have to trade Schwartz
<div class="quote"><div class="quote_t">Quoting: <b>TheEarthmaster</b></div><div>I feel like a lot of people are falling into the "Steen or Pietrangelo" trap when that is really not true. Steen is the most difficult (full NTC) and expensive (both in cap hit and in potential sweetner) to move. He's 36. In addition, he's been a part of this team for a zillion years. There are players that make more sense to move. Bozak provides better value, has nearly the same cap hit, and plays a position of depth for the Blues that also happens to be a highly sought after position around the league. So why is everyone trying to trade Steen?</div></div>

That's fair and I probably fall into this trap myself, I was in this case just pointing out that I don't think sending Steen and a 1st off is out of character to Doug Armstrong or unwise (though Steen's possession stats are as good as Bozak's, both of which are very good, the man can still play some defense)
Forum: Armchair-GM23 juill. 2020 à 9 h 49
Sujet: Offseason Edition - 25
Allen and Barbshev moves make sense and like them.

Why are you bringing in Aaron Dell, who sucks, like I cannot emphasize enough that he sucks, it would be Chad Johnson 2.0, and we have Husso?

Why is Pietrangelo signing for a deal he already rejected? Not that a flat cap can't effect that but if a flat cap did effect that why didn'this agent call Army in the break adn say "we'll take that deal? He's gonna cost more, probably at least 9M

Bringing in Greg McKegg is fun, on name along, but DLR is the same player &amp; he's a Blues RFA, he probably just comes back

That Steen deal is essentially Kyrou for Spacek to save the first vs what is consensus expected of Steen + a 1st for a salary dump and I gotta ask, do the Jets even have that cap space? For as good of a prospect as Spacek is and as slow of an NHL start Kyrou has had (he was still on an ok 25 point pace last year though and he should only get better) is the difference in Spacek and Kyrou really less than the difference between a late 1st and a 3rd? To be clear they have about the same cost and number of years of control and the Blues, especially if the do bring Pietro back, are in a win now window, so next year is vital to this equation
Forum: Armchair-GM23 juill. 2020 à 9 h 31
Sujet: If they have to trade Schwartz
<div class="quote"><div class="quote_t">Quoting: <b>TheEarthmaster</b></div><div>I think once you look at the context of Faulk's prior success though it becomes less surprising.

I've seen so much "oh wait until he rediscovers his Hurricanes game" among Blues fans but people seem to forget that the Hurricanes freaking sucked for pretty much his entire career until the last year he was there. That's not Faulk's fault- the Hurricanes didn't have a goaltender and really didn't have any skilled forwards either- but it explains a lot about how he "generated" offense. Faulk takes a lot of shots, which seems like a good thing, but it's only a good thing if he's converting on a lot of those shots, which he doesn't. He's not an elite scorer- again, no biggie, most in the NHL aren't- but if he's not an elite scorer he shouldn't be taking that many shots especially as a defenseman, since most of the time those shots are coming way out from the net and have a little chance of going in anyway, and a high chance of stopping play or worse, turning over to the other team.

This was fine on Carolina, because, like, were any of his teammates all that much better of an option? Well, they are now, and I don't think it's a coincidence that he was expendable once the Canes got good. His play style isn't effective if you have skilled forwards to take shots closer to the net that have a better chance of going in- in fact, it's a drag. Well, the Blues have skilled forwards too, so it's not working here just like it wasn't working there. Couple that with his fine-at-best defensive play and you have a seven year contract for a player who is elite at nothing- never a good thing to have.

If he really wants to be on a contender but also be a part of the solution, he needs to play for someone like, idk, Dallas, who can't score goals to save their lives but have the defense thing locked down so if the other team gains possession it's not a big deal.</div></div>

yeah I feel like it's reliving shattenkirk without the actual PP QBing, though I think he has at least looked good paired with Pietrangelo so maybe we'll get enough of a sample size to actually see the analytics there and see fi he really wasn't that bad of a fit, just a bad contract
Forum: Armchair-GM23 juill. 2020 à 9 h 26
Sujet: If they have to trade Schwartz
<div class="quote"><div class="quote_t">Quoting: <b>STLBlues17</b></div><div>Nobody has cap space though and I don’t see Armstrong trading a first to move Steen.</div></div>

why not though? I mean I get this draft is supposed to be deep and the Blues are thin on picks (turn out if you go all in you have repercussions later, super duper worth it of course, that's why teams go all in, if anything the Blues going all in for a center two years in a row finally breaking the great drought might be the best case ever to point to for going all in paying off, but nonetheless) but Armstrong ahs never shown fear in trading away a first, even if he's not acquiring a big name upgrade this time.

Also why would he, in his 10 years here, he's not had a 1st round pick 4 times and his 5 or 6 years (depending on if you credit him or Pleau with 2010 since he barely had time to get stuff in order and was busy with the Halak trade for most of his early tenure) that he did have a first, he's since the great Schwartz/Tarasenko round gotten Thomas and if you wanna count the beautiful window of hope for Fabbri before his knees happened, and that's really it of consequence, and yet the Blues are defending cup champs, in a position to win again this year, and only looking at a slight downgrade next year if they retain Pietrangelo putting them in another great position next year. That doesn't mean he should devalue firsts but if ti makes sense those aren't exactly his primary tool of success

Also just on a general level I know looking at the thin prospects and lack of 1st and 2nds these next two years looks dire but if it comes down to keeping Steen or dumping him with a 1st to bring Pietrangelo back, collapsing a playoff window by losing your best player and leaving yourself somewhere between middling get into the playoffs but not far team and rebuild, with very little to build off of (see: The wild or the sharks) over one late first seems, yeah that's just super duper unwise. I think that's the perspective that gets lost when you look at a 1st rounder in a vacuum or panic over a lack of picks or think about "getting nothing" with a cap dump to retain a guy (not sure which of these 3 positions either you are coming from or you are assuming Armstrong is coming from)
Forum: Armchair-GM23 juill. 2020 à 9 h 12
Sujet: If they have to trade Schwartz
ooooh that Texier move is slick. I like it.The sample is much smaller but so far he looks VERY Schwartz as a top 6 guy scores less than you think he should but dominates possession. It's a great comp with huge savings and if it wasn't for the fact that Blues are hardcore in win now mode especially if they do keep Pietrangelo, it's just a good move long term with Schwartz only having a year left

Also i don't think Husso is anything to worry about as the backup goalie plan. it didn't happen this year because Husso was coming off a down year and injury and Binnington wasn't a proven starter yet. All 3 of those issues have been resolved in a positive fashion for the Blues and Armstrong has shown before he's not afraid of midseason backup goalie moves (whether it's in like Brodeur as would apply here, or out like Chad Johnson)