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Victor24

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Forum: Armchair-GM29 févr. à 13 h 30
Sujet: If you want Jack
<div class="quote"><div class="quote_t">Quoting: <b>dgibb10</b></div><div>And then 3 years from now its
25-29 year Jack Hughes at 8 million&gt;&gt;&gt;&gt;&gt;&gt;&gt;&gt;&gt;&gt;&gt;&gt;&gt;&gt;&gt;&gt;&gt;&gt;&gt;&gt;&gt;&gt;&gt;&gt;&gt;&gt;&gt;&gt;&gt;&gt;&gt;&gt;&gt;&gt;&gt;&gt;&gt;&gt;&gt;&gt;&gt;&gt;any 8 million dollar player you can pick up in UFA. (If elias lindholm is looking 8+ now for his age 30-37 seasons, imagine how little you'll be able to get for 8 mill when the cap is 100 mill)

for the 4 years after that.</div></div>

Ok...Blues have Robert Thomas signed to basically same contract as Hughes, and his production is similar to Hughes. Never would I say he has more value than McDavid. Not saying Thomas is as good as Hughes also, but the delta from Thomas to Hughes is smaller than the delta from Hughes to McDavid...
Forum: Armchair-GM28 févr. à 6 h 21
Sujet: Away from Markstrom
<div class="quote"><div class="quote_t">Quoting: <b>Victor24</b></div><div>His recent numbers (2 of last 3 years) are much better than anything before it. He looks to me like Ulmark from Boston. Middling for most of his career but better recently. The question is, do the better numbers correlate to a breakout or being on a better team?</div></div>

Oh absolutely but The problem there is that there is no runway left, most good goalies in the NHL retire at like 38? He's 34 already and any late development is cancelled out by his impending regression. What a lot of people on here don't get is that value is over the longterm, people don't pay insane prices for 1 playoff run. You need to be pretty sure you're going to get at the very least 3 years of quality goaltending but preferably like 8 years if you are going to give up a highly ranked prospect who is still on his ELC. A first rounder isn't so much a problem and I'd be perfectly happy to send it out for an old goalie given the timeline of this team but anybody who thinks a 1st and Holtz is worth probably 1 post-season run with him at this level is wildly overvaluing him at least in my book
Forum: Armchair-GM27 févr. à 22 h 19
Forum: Armchair-GM25 févr. à 18 h 30
Sujet: Pens
<div class="quote"><div class="quote_t">Quoting: <b>Victor24</b></div><div>Huh? Saad has the worst defensive numbers on STL. His expected goals against per 60 5v5 is 5th percentile in the NHL. He is objectively terrible on defense.</div></div>

I don't really find that as a fair number to isolate a winger to, in general i dont think it's a great stat in general unless you're just comparing it within teammattes. It's pretty isolated to different playstyles.

That being said, Saad doesn't really do anything anyways. He gets streaky every once in a while and scores some goals. His pretty much sole purpose seems to be to stretch the ice. IT's fine for now as we aren't really trying to be overly compettive, but more so respectable for the length of his contract. Wouldn't pay to dump him, but wouldn't be upset if they just waived him. We don't really have anyone that needs to push into that middle 6 lineup right now that doesn't have a spot so it's pretty inconsequential.
Forum: Armchair-GM23 févr. à 15 h 30
Sujet: Sharks 7 TDL Moves Sign Guentzel Reinhart Hanifin Land Celebrini
<div class="quote"><div class="quote_t">Quoting: <b>Victor24</b></div><div>By what metric are you referring. All the stats I can see show him as a below average player even among his peers on the Sharks.
(All stats 5v5, all comparisons are vs forwards with 500+ min)

Expected Goals per 60: 0.54 (3rd worst on SJ, 11th percentile)
Goals per 60: 0.39 (3rd worst on SJ, 9th%)
Points per 60: 1.38 (2nd best on SJ, 26th%)
Faceoff win: 49.1% (2nd best on SJ, 62nd%)
Corsi: 41% (Tied worst on SJ, 4th%)
Expected Goals against per 60: 3.42 (2nd worst on SJ, 0th%)
Shooting Talent Above Average: -4% (4th worst on SJ, 31st%)
Created xgoals: 4.5 (2nd worst on SJ, 5th%)

All of the individual stats above are very similar to his career numbers and numbers with Pit last year.

His PP numbers are also not good, though they are better than with Pit last year.

Granlund appears to be a worse version on Monahan, who did (surprisingly) net a 1st. So it is possible someone will overpay but based on his stats, a 3rd would be an overpayment for Granlund.

Side note, great username. One of the best on this site.</div></div>
Appreciate it 👍🏻

Also, those stats are surprising. But I was arguing more so in favor of Granlund's zone entries and puck possession strengths. I just checked his RAPM chart and he's slightly above average in terms of his impact in the offensive and neutral zones, so that checks out, though I still expected it to be higher.

It's worth noting that he's gotten better as the season progressed. He was exactly the no-show terrible player I expected from him for the first 15-20 games of the season, but he lit a switch and has been great since then, at least by the eye test.

In sum, a 1st is probably a stretch, but a 3rd at 2.5mil for another year locked in at that value I think is too low too. A middle-ground late 2nd rounder seems reasonable to expect from a depth-depleted team like COL who could use him, or DAL.