Feels like I've made this comment a hundred times in the last few days.

Your offer is barely even enough to dump Campbell, you're not getting Blackwood and Ferraro for it.

If the rumoured ask to dump Campbell is a first and a third, how is the sum total of said first and two of Edmonton's best prospects not getting this done? Ultimately, are your feelings about taking back the contract aligned with the reality of the situation?

I personally don't have an interest in acquiring Ferraro, and the inclusion of Janmark is a nothingburger, but the package of Bourgault, Broberg, Campbell, and the requisite first absolutely fetches Blackwood (at least on paper). I recognize that the Sharks only have LHD and might not hold Broberg in high regard, but I think your stance on this specific trade is, well, skewed.

I don't think you've been reading rumours, you've been reading the wish list of Oilers beat writers. There is absolutely no way any team takes on Campbell for a 1st (in 2025 I might add which decreases its value) and a 3rd considering how incredibly cap strapped almost every team in the league is right now. Campbell is an AHL player making $5 million a year for three (!) more years after this season!

As I said, the first is in 2025 instead of 2024 which lowers its value. Bourgault has had a rough season so far, and his value is definitely lower than last year. Broberg is still valuable, even if not for the Sharks, and Janmark is just a wash

Let's treat it like two separate trades. I wouldn't accept Bourgault & Janmark for Blackwood & Ferraro, and I wouldn't accept to take on Campbell for Broberg and a 2025 first (even if it's not far away).

I'm not looking at this as separate trades though: Edmonton has their own Ferraro in Kulak, his inclusion in the deal, and Janmark's, aren't relevant. I asked you how the combination of the two prospects, next year's first, and Campbell fails to fetch Blackwood. You've ignored that question.

The underlying expectation of any team acquiring Campbell is that he's going to be bought out in the offseason, because (as you've correctly identified), he's not playing at an NHL level. I'd argue he's even sub-AHL at the moment. His buyout costs $10.5M. Blackwood is owed another year at $2.5M in real cash dollars. If you want to get nitty-gritty about the money involved, Jackie is roughly owed another $2.85M in the AHL this season, and Blackwood is owed about $1.74M. The Sharks aren't looking at acquiring a $15M tab if they acquire Campbell: that figure is only about $9.1M spread over six years.

Even if the idea of "a first and a third" is less than your expectation, either Bourgault or Broberg hold more inherent value than said pick. The Leafs got absolutely hosed when they had to turf Marleau's $6.5M for what was expected to be a late first-round pick: extrapolating on that math suggests that a first and a B+ prospect is good value for eating Campbell's buyout (it's less than 1.5x the Marleau buyout and is way less impactful to the Sharks than that buyout was to the Hurricanes). Is Blackwood worth a prospect equivalent to Broberg or Bourgault? Probably not, but the Oilers aren't in a position to bargain. I suspect any excess value in that math makes up for whatever you feel is lacking in the first and prospect tag in acquiring Campbell.

EDIT: that math on what the Sharks would owe Campbell takes into consideration how much of Blackwood they aren't on the hook for AND the discrepancy in their remaining cap hits for this year: it's a net +$9.1M, not $9.1M owed.

I don't know what rumours you are referring to but a 1st and 3rd to dump Campbell seems woefully short on value to dump $5m in cap for 3 1/2 years.

To me the cost of moving Campbell should be close to a 1st per year of term. This mirrors Lowetide at The Athletic's take "the asset cost of simply moving Campbell starts at three good prospects/picks".

reference: https://theathletic.com/5074967/2023/11/20/edmonton-oilers-goalie-trades/

But that's kind of the same point I'm agreeing to in my two above posts: Blackwood isn't one of the star goaltenders in the NHL today, he's just performing really well on a gutted Sharks roster.

This entire conversation is surrounding the idea of my rebuttal of Bourgault, Broberg, the 2025 1st, and Campbell for Blackwood. I'm aligned with Allan's discussion, having reached this conclusion not from the opinion that Seravalli dropped, but extrapolating to the Oilers being in a really bad bargaining position at the moment. To expect Edmonton to get absolutely nothing back in that return is insane to me, no matter how much of a black hole Campbell is in terms of value. That's too much capital to be moving out to free up less than $4M in cap space over the next three years.

Real cash is not a concern for the Sharks, that's not where the cost of Campbell stems from and we both know it. As said by the other commentator, the market cost of Campbell seems to be three good assets. Broberg fills that criteria, the 2025 first fills that critera, but I don't think Bourgault does as I said earlier. So that's two a-grade assets and one b-grade, without taking into account the fact that the Sharks are shipping Blackwood back. We're not talking about a massive discrepancy in value in here, but there definitely is one

Good. I rather just buyout Campbell if thats the price it will take. Also, we don't need a LHD so not sure why Oilers fans would want Ferraro..

My bad, I hadn't gotten to that point in the thread yet.

However I don't completely agree with your point of Bourgault and Broberg holding more inherent value than a 1st round pick. Bourgault himself was a late 1st pick and hasn't exactly lit the world on fire since turning pro and I think his value IMO is pretty much in line with his draft slot and I would rate him more of a B than B+ prospect until he shows more offence. As for Broberg, he is in his 3rd pro season in NA and still hasn't been able to take hold of a regular role in the NHL despite management being very high on him. The fact that the coaching staff don't play a 3rd year pro for even 11 minutes per game speaks to the lack of trust and belief in this player which is concerning given that he was drafted as a future Ekholm style 2 way, dependable stalwart and not a high event, risky player which coaches are often wary of.

Though prospect evaluation is far from an exact science and Grier might be more aligned with your view and find the value proposed to be sufficient. I personally don't see much surplus value to either player compared to a late 1st round pick and so agree with Emil that more would need to be added get Blackwood.

Janmark is a 30 yr old Zero, Campbell is not a NHL player with a awful contract for 3 more years, Broberg drafted high but 22 now and frankly the bloom is off him as propsect. So a good prospect and a first 2 yrs from now to take 2 cap dumps, a bust prospect and get back 2 NHL players. not happening

The Oiler radio fantasy that you can upgrade in goal and move Campbell at the same time is not happening.