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Haymaker26

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3 juin 2021
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Penguins de Pittsburgh
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Forum: Armchair-GMHier à 18 h 42
Forum: Armchair-GMmar. à 10 h 3
Sujet: Boys are buzzin
<div class="quote"><div class="quote_t">Quoting: <b>Pens3lieve</b></div><div>I accept that trade for PIT</div></div>

I don't. Even with their unspectacular seasons, Karlsson and Jarry are better than Chychrun and Korpisalo.

Per Evolving-Hockey, The Sens allowed 0.38 more goals against /60 with Chychrun on the ice then their average. Karlsson's defense is nothing to write home about, but he's not even close to that. The Pens allowed 0.02 goals against/60 *less* with EK on the ice than off. It also leaves the Pens with a chasm at RHD. We have like 5 righties in the system right now, and I think we'd get the best results from Chychrun by playing him on the left.

And Chychrun's defensive results are not helped by Korpisalo. By EH's model, Korpi's -13.18 GSAx was the NHL's worst. By Money-Puck's model, he allowed -16.1 GSAx, 2nd worst. By contrast, Jarry saved 11.78 and 2.6 GSAx respectively. Neither are great for what we're paying him, but significantly better than Korpisalo.

And yeah, EK and Jars are more expensive than Chychrun and Korpisalo, but the addition of Norris makes it so that Pittsburgh is taking on around $1M in cap space. Norris has high upside, but the risk from his health issues is just as high. If he doesn't bounce back, we'd be paying a ~50 point guy like an ~80 point guy.

Swapping defensemen and goaltending makes the Pens worse in the short term, and Norris is a huge risk that even if it pays off, is going to be stuck here throughout a rebuild instead of being on a contender. It's not worth it.
Forum: Armchair-GMsam. à 18 h 13
Sujet: Jakey come back U can blame it all on Sully
<div class="quote"><div class="quote_t">Quoting: <b>BELIEVEnPENGUINS</b></div><div>I know he has one more year of eligiblity with WHL.....but can't they send him to Wilkes Barre if they think he is ready too? honest question, not sure rules with WHL.

My point with Jake is, I think if Jake comes back with the penguins, it will be for less than 9.5 million. Only way he comes back is if he takes less than what the open market is giving him. He will absolutely get more from another team.....its just a matter of how much does he want to come back.

Puustinen is fine......you wanna look at all those stats....fine. But if you want a 3rd line who can be a scoring 3rd line who can help produce.....Puustinen on the 3rd line is not answer. 5 goals isn't good. we need better from him. Maybe I am willing to earn the spot next season. but we need more from him for sure.</div></div>

Then the million (or 9.5 million) dollar question for Dubas is if he's willing to risk Guentzel picking money and long-term contention over Pittsburgh.

And I do want to look at those stats for Puustinen, because they tell a better story than just points. I understand the skepicism with just 5 goals, considering how good his shot has looked at times, but I think it's not too much to worry about. Puusty had a really low shooting % this season, and it could just be him being snakebitten. He played well enough that I think he's a good offseason and some more ice time (or luck) away from that being a nonissue. If we're a decent way through next season and the goals don't start coming, then it's time to worry.
Forum: Armchair-GMsam. à 15 h 40
Sujet: Jakey come back U can blame it all on Sully
<div class="quote"><div class="quote_t">Quoting: <b>BELIEVEnPENGUINS</b></div><div>Agree that Broz, Yager and Pickering are not NHL ready. Yager might be a midseason addition but not to start the year. St Ivany should 100% be our 3rd RD pairing guy.

If we clear Smith's contract, I think we should absolutely try to get Guentzel back.......... 9.5 million is just a little to high for me though.

I don't like Puusty on the 3rd line.....He didn't do enough for me to think he has that spot secured.

And I would much rather have Ponomarev as our 4th line center than Poulin.....I think Poulin is overrated. Excited to see what Ponomarev can do. Saw him play in the AHL.</div></div>

Yager is still 19, so if he doesn't make the Pens out of camp, he has to be sent back to the WHL. If that is the case, we can't call him up until his season in the W is over.

With Jake it's not a matter of "is he worth $9.5M" so much as it is "are we willing to spend $9.5M on one slot." Is Jake worth that money? Without a shadow of a doubt. Is it the best move to lock up that much cap space at 1LW given the team's current roster construction? Probably not. We can use that money to get a top 6 winger and afford an upgrade to the bottom 6 or defense.

Pens fans' doubt of Puustinen continues to confuse me. He had his ups and downs, but so did the wingers we pay $5M a year. Like I said, 1.96 points/60, which is better than DOC, Rakell, and every other bottom 6 player. His on-ice stats are stellar: 56.82 GF% (2nd among Pens F), 55.83 xGF% (2nd), 53.51 SF% (5th), and that's despite the team's shooting and save % while he's on the ice are near the team average. He's driven play remarkably well in a lesser role.

I don't really have a preference between Poulin/Ponomarev. Whichever 3 of them, Gruden, and Puljujarvi who look best in camp can fill out the 4th line. Certainly can't be worse than throwing Harkins, Nieto, and Acciari out there again.
Forum: Armchair-GMsam. à 13 h 12
Sujet: Jakey come back U can blame it all on Sully
<div class="quote"><div class="quote_t">Quoting: <b>LuckyMoneyPuck</b></div><div>Yager is already a better player than Puustinen.
You to worried about age. There are plenty of guys who come in at 20.
While I can see your concern for Pickering, by the end of the year he'll be a better LD than POJ and he sure as hell can do no worse than Ludvig did.

As for Broz, he could step onto this team today and be the best 3C option they have. Guys don't play as good as he does at the NCAA level and not make the jump fairly quickly. He's better than Kerfoot was at the NCAA level and Kerfoot played right away. He's got kerfoot year 4 numbers in year 3. He's got a complete game. He could easily make the jump.
It's the constant shooting itself in the foot that this team makes not wanting to play youth and this fan base who thinks no one is capable other than some over priced old as hell declining vet.

Broz would be a massive upgrade on the ice.</div></div>

It isn't age I'm worried about with any of those guys I was skeptical of, it was performance.

Yager is probably the closest, had a phenomenal WHL season, but was 3rd in points/game on his own team. How much is he going to score without Jagger Firkus and Matthew Savoie? I don't think Yager's already better than Puusty. He's still only played in juniors, we don't know how well Yager will do against professionals. Look at Poulin, he played well in his last 2 years of juniors, and then struggled in the AHL before he was moved to C. Puustinen had 20 points in 52 games while averaging under 12 minutes a night. His 1.96 points/60 was one of the better rates on the Pens, and with a strong G% and xG% as well. Puusty and DOC are easily the best wingers for our 3rd line, assuming we replace Smith with someone to play with Sid and Rust.

Broz is in a similar boat: he was a major contributor on a great team, but he wasn't the guy. I dislike the Kerfoot comparison. Kerfoot scored 45 in 35 in year 4, and was 18th in points/game and tied for Harvard's leading scorer. Broz was good, but wasn't *the guy*. He scored 40 in 43, good for 63rd in points/game, and was 4th in Denver scoring. The only examples I saw over the past few years of someone making the jump to the NHL and sticking around were top picks and talents like Beniers and Caulfield, and Matthew Knies. Maybe we get a Knies situation out of him, but that's the exception rather than the rule.

Pickering was projected to have 3 or 4 years before making the NHL when drafted, and his development has been slower than the other two over the past couple years. His scoring barely went up between this and last season. With Swift Current being eliminated from the WHL playoffs last night, I assume he'll join the WBS Pens for their run. I think his performance there will tell us a lot about his readiness. If he's going to be better than POJ at the end of the year, he can prove it in the AHL before the end of the year. And better than Ludvig isn't great praise.

And it isn't like I want to play a bunch of old guys in those spaces. Eller was the only guy over 26 that I wanted in my projected bottom 6. Puusty and Pulji were the oldest guys after that. The former provides a scoring touch the bottom 6 lacked for the past few years, and the ladder has the speed and physicality for a great energy/grind line. I'm worried that if we play Yager, Broz, and Pickering before they're ready, it'll negatively affect both the Penguins season and those guys' seasons. Ultimately, I want what's best for their development. If that's an NHL gig, phenomenal. But if not, that's ok.
Forum: Armchair-GMsam. à 9 h 53
Sujet: Jakey come back U can blame it all on Sully
<div class="quote"><div class="quote_t">Quoting: <b>LuckyMoneyPuck</b></div><div>I'm gonna fix this for you.

3rd line
Yager, Broz, DOC.

4th line
Poulin, Eller, Bemström

DEF
bye POJ
Insert Pickering.
bye Ivany
Insert FA 3RD.

Best this team could do....

But here is the thing. I don't want to pay Jake 9.5...... because he's not worth 9.5
To be stuck in that contract, is a decision I'd rather let some other team get roped into.</div></div>

Full stop, this is far from the best this team could do.
I don't think Yager, Broz, or Pickering are NHL ready. I'd love to be proven wrong, but I imagine they'll all get a quick look at most.
Jack St. Ivany has been solid, much to my surprise. He plays a better physical shutdown game than the rest of our 3rd pairing options. Why replace young talent with a more expensive player that is only marginally better?
"Guentzel isn''t worth 9.5M" have you been living under a rock? He was worth that before scoring 25 in 17 with CAR. He's a superstar. That doesn't necessarily mean that bringing him back is the best move for the team: I want to pick up a shutdown LHD on a short term deal until Pickering is ready. But someone is going to pay Jake a lot of money this summer and they are going to be very happy that they did.

Ideal bottom 6 IMO looks something like:
DOC - Eller - Puustinen
Gruden - Poulin/Ponomarev - Puljujarvi
with Eller moving down to 4C later in the season if Poulin/Ponomarev look good.
Forum: Armchair-GM17 avr. à 16 h 54
Sujet: Blues Offseason
<div class="quote"><div class="quote_t">Quoting: <b>StDetroitBlueWings</b></div><div>I've just seen a ton of trades trying to offload both graves and acciari and a couple sending Krug to Pit. Do they want him? Probably not. But honestly never know with Dubas and his whole "screw the D, all out offense" approach he seems to have. Not even sure where (or if) there's a fit for Krug anywhere. Just wanted to make the money work with Pit at least. Would rather take on a bad contract or two and get rid of Krug than a buyout (or try again next year)</div></div>

I don't buy the "screw the D" apporach thing. Sure, Karlsson is not defensively, but every other addition Dubas made in Pittsburgh last offseason was meant to be defensively oriented.
I think improving the defensive skills of the D around EK and Tanger is a must this summer. I have no reason to think Graves for Krug does that.
Forum: Armchair-GM15 avr. à 19 h 12
Sujet: Penguins 2024-25 Season
<div class="quote"><div class="quote_t">Quoting: <b>Kato</b></div><div>If Dubois and Laine can get straightened out then you have two players in their mid 20's who could be cornerstone pieces after the current core is gone but also elevate the current roster to contender status.</div></div>

I think this team being any good requires that Dubois and Laine both being healthy and playing up to their contracts. Going to be honest, I don't see it happening. It's a really really risky move that locks up a lot of cap space that I think can be used to improve the team on defense and in the bottom 6.

As for Megna, he and Karlsson played together as a top pairing on a bad team. He could do it in a pinch, but I think he's best suited in a depth role. This lineup still doesn't have a good enough blue line IMO.