I was wroooong

And I just can't score without you

I'm gonna fix this for you.

3rd line
Yager, Broz, DOC.

4th line
Poulin, Eller, Bemström

DEF
bye POJ
Insert Pickering.
bye Ivany
Insert FA 3RD.

Best this team could do....

But here is the thing. I don't want to pay Jake 9.5...... because he's not worth 9.5
To be stuck in that contract, is a decision I'd rather let some other team get roped into.

Full stop, this is far from the best this team could do.
I don't think Yager, Broz, or Pickering are NHL ready. I'd love to be proven wrong, but I imagine they'll all get a quick look at most.
Jack St. Ivany has been solid, much to my surprise. He plays a better physical shutdown game than the rest of our 3rd pairing options. Why replace young talent with a more expensive player that is only marginally better?
"Guentzel isn''t worth 9.5M" have you been living under a rock? He was worth that before scoring 25 in 17 with CAR. He's a superstar. That doesn't necessarily mean that bringing him back is the best move for the team: I want to pick up a shutdown LHD on a short term deal until Pickering is ready. But someone is going to pay Jake a lot of money this summer and they are going to be very happy that they did.

Ideal bottom 6 IMO looks something like:
DOC - Eller - Puustinen
Gruden - Poulin/Ponomarev - Puljujarvi
with Eller moving down to 4C later in the season if Poulin/Ponomarev look good.

Yager is already a better player than Puustinen.
You to worried about age. There are plenty of guys who come in at 20.
While I can see your concern for Pickering, by the end of the year he'll be a better LD than POJ and he sure as hell can do no worse than Ludvig did.

As for Broz, he could step onto this team today and be the best 3C option they have. Guys don't play as good as he does at the NCAA level and not make the jump fairly quickly. He's better than Kerfoot was at the NCAA level and Kerfoot played right away. He's got kerfoot year 4 numbers in year 3. He's got a complete game. He could easily make the jump.
It's the constant shooting itself in the foot that this team makes not wanting to play youth and this fan base who thinks no one is capable other than some over priced old as hell declining vet.

Broz would be a massive upgrade on the ice.

It isn't age I'm worried about with any of those guys I was skeptical of, it was performance.

Yager is probably the closest, had a phenomenal WHL season, but was 3rd in points/game on his own team. How much is he going to score without Jagger Firkus and Matthew Savoie? I don't think Yager's already better than Puusty. He's still only played in juniors, we don't know how well Yager will do against professionals. Look at Poulin, he played well in his last 2 years of juniors, and then struggled in the AHL before he was moved to C. Puustinen had 20 points in 52 games while averaging under 12 minutes a night. His 1.96 points/60 was one of the better rates on the Pens, and with a strong G% and xG% as well. Puusty and DOC are easily the best wingers for our 3rd line, assuming we replace Smith with someone to play with Sid and Rust.

Broz is in a similar boat: he was a major contributor on a great team, but he wasn't the guy. I dislike the Kerfoot comparison. Kerfoot scored 45 in 35 in year 4, and was 18th in points/game and tied for Harvard's leading scorer. Broz was good, but wasn't *the guy*. He scored 40 in 43, good for 63rd in points/game, and was 4th in Denver scoring. The only examples I saw over the past few years of someone making the jump to the NHL and sticking around were top picks and talents like Beniers and Caulfield, and Matthew Knies. Maybe we get a Knies situation out of him, but that's the exception rather than the rule.

Pickering was projected to have 3 or 4 years before making the NHL when drafted, and his development has been slower than the other two over the past couple years. His scoring barely went up between this and last season. With Swift Current being eliminated from the WHL playoffs last night, I assume he'll join the WBS Pens for their run. I think his performance there will tell us a lot about his readiness. If he's going to be better than POJ at the end of the year, he can prove it in the AHL before the end of the year. And better than Ludvig isn't great praise.

And it isn't like I want to play a bunch of old guys in those spaces. Eller was the only guy over 26 that I wanted in my projected bottom 6. Puusty and Pulji were the oldest guys after that. The former provides a scoring touch the bottom 6 lacked for the past few years, and the ladder has the speed and physicality for a great energy/grind line. I'm worried that if we play Yager, Broz, and Pickering before they're ready, it'll negatively affect both the Penguins season and those guys' seasons. Ultimately, I want what's best for their development. If that's an NHL gig, phenomenal. But if not, that's ok.

Agree that Broz, Yager and Pickering are not NHL ready. Yager might be a midseason addition but not to start the year. St Ivany should 100% be our 3rd RD pairing guy.

If we clear Smith's contract, I think we should absolutely try to get Guentzel back.......... 9.5 million is just a little to high for me though.

I don't like Puusty on the 3rd line.....He didn't do enough for me to think he has that spot secured.

And I would much rather have Ponomarev as our 4th line center than Poulin.....I think Poulin is overrated. Excited to see what Ponomarev can do. Saw him play in the AHL.

Yager is still 19, so if he doesn't make the Pens out of camp, he has to be sent back to the WHL. If that is the case, we can't call him up until his season in the W is over.

With Jake it's not a matter of "is he worth $9.5M" so much as it is "are we willing to spend $9.5M on one slot." Is Jake worth that money? Without a shadow of a doubt. Is it the best move to lock up that much cap space at 1LW given the team's current roster construction? Probably not. We can use that money to get a top 6 winger and afford an upgrade to the bottom 6 or defense.

Pens fans' doubt of Puustinen continues to confuse me. He had his ups and downs, but so did the wingers we pay $5M a year. Like I said, 1.96 points/60, which is better than DOC, Rakell, and every other bottom 6 player. His on-ice stats are stellar: 56.82 GF% (2nd among Pens F), 55.83 xGF% (2nd), 53.51 SF% (5th), and that's despite the team's shooting and save % while he's on the ice are near the team average. He's driven play remarkably well in a lesser role.

I don't really have a preference between Poulin/Ponomarev. Whichever 3 of them, Gruden, and Puljujarvi who look best in camp can fill out the 4th line. Certainly can't be worse than throwing Harkins, Nieto, and Acciari out there again.

I know he has one more year of eligiblity with WHL.....but can't they send him to Wilkes Barre if they think he is ready too? honest question, not sure rules with WHL.

My point with Jake is, I think if Jake comes back with the penguins, it will be for less than 9.5 million. Only way he comes back is if he takes less than what the open market is giving him. He will absolutely get more from another team.....its just a matter of how much does he want to come back.

Puustinen is fine......you wanna look at all those stats....fine. But if you want a 3rd line who can be a scoring 3rd line who can help produce.....Puustinen on the 3rd line is not answer. 5 goals isn't good. we need better from him. Maybe I am willing to earn the spot next season. but we need more from him for sure.

You guys both realize that if Yager doesn't play on the Pens he's going back to a CHL where he has nothing to gain for his development right?
I mean you don't score 1.66 PPG at the CHL level and not have talent. Guys playing at that level make the jump. As much as you are worried about screwing up his development, there is nothing left for him to develop at the CHL level. At some point you are only getting better by playing better competition. Which is why even Dubas has said he expects him to compete for a spot on the team. He's got more to learn hanging around guys like Crosby to mentor him than he does sitting in the CHL.

As for Broz, you are highly mistaken. He's the guy always in the right spot at the right time. He reminds me of Guentzel that way. When you need a goal he's the guy Denver put out there because he had the hockey IQ to figure it out.

As for Pickering.. I know Ludvig isn't a high hurdle that's the point. But it's pretty clear that POJ isn't a high hurdle either if that's what's keeping him off the ice.
At no point do I expect him to come in right away and look like an all star. But I'd rather have a young defenseman out there learning from his mistake, than a guy they trust so little they would rather put Ludvig on the PK. I mean at some point you have to face reality and recognize they are carrying POJ like dead weight.

he can not go to the WHL, he has to go back to the CHL per agreement.
It's basically a wasted year there for him.

You knew what we meant......CHL.

All the other guy is saying is if he doesn't make the team, he has to go back to the CHL.

But I agree with you in terms of Yager.....He should 100% be on the Penguins roster next year. Let him figure it out with Sid showing him the way. I wasn't arguing for him to go back to the CHL.

In terms of Pickering and POJ......I am good with letting POJ walk. I think Pickering of any of the prospects needs time in WIlkes to develop before coming up. Yager is special.....but Pickering has shown he needs more time. Pickering should start in Wilkes imo.

That's what I was saying, if he's not in the NHL he has to go back to the CHL. He can not go to the AHL. Under 20 goes back to the CHL by contract with the CHL.

I totally agree with you on Pickering. if all things were equal..... but if the options next year are another year of Ludvig and POJ....what they got to lose?
I mean we already know that 3rd pairing will sink the team next year if nothing is done. The team is just out of time. If the option is to do nothing for the 3rd pairing in FA. To roll with what they currently have. Pickering is a better option than what they got. As we've seen it, and we know it's not working.

It's better for this team to get use to developing young players while giving them a chance now. Because in a few years they are going to be like CBJ.... draft and play because they don't have the talent on roster.
So they better start figuring it out now. As they won't have options in a few years anyway.

The bottom pairing of Shea and St Ivany was pretty good for us down the stretch.....I agree about POJ and Ludvig, I would not use them at all. I would go St.Ivany and a cheap free agent with Shea as the 7th Dman.

I hear what you are saying about Pickering, I just think he needs more time. He needs to show me he is ready for NHL in WBS. He is slower than Yager in development, so don't rush him to NHL quite yet imo.
If he shows me he is ready in WBS mid way through the season, then yeah bring him up. I just wouldn't start him in NHL.

imo......Yager, Blomqvist, Ponomarev, St Ivany and Poulin should/will start the year on the NHL roster.

Then the million (or 9.5 million) dollar question for Dubas is if he's willing to risk Guentzel picking money and long-term contention over Pittsburgh.

And I do want to look at those stats for Puustinen, because they tell a better story than just points. I understand the skepicism with just 5 goals, considering how good his shot has looked at times, but I think it's not too much to worry about. Puusty had a really low shooting % this season, and it could just be him being snakebitten. He played well enough that I think he's a good offseason and some more ice time (or luck) away from that being a nonissue. If we're a decent way through next season and the goals don't start coming, then it's time to worry.

He can go to the AHL if he has permission from the CHL team. It happened this year with Shane Wright. If the Penguins believe he won't further his development playing junior there are paths for him to play in the AHL.

I think the most likely prospect to break camp with the Penguins next season is Koivunen. He dominated playing against grown men in a high level league that values defensive responsibility. He seems like a player capable of starting on the third line wing and working his way up. Yager needs to be a top 6 winger so I don't see him being a factor next season. I actually still think he can benefit from another season in the WHL as his defense leaves a lot to be desired still. Defense takes a long time to develop. I would be shocked if Pickering wasn't in the AHL all of next year. He still is an awkward skater as it's clear he's still adjusting into his height. He has a similar body type to Marcus Pettersson so it's unlikely he's ready to play in the NHL next season. He needs to get physically stronger. Broz could potentially win a spot because his ceiling is that of a bottom 6 player. There isn't a whole lot of development upside in him so it's simply a matter of if he can handle himself defensively at the NHL level. Poulin is a bottom 6 player as well so has a chance to make the team. Bemstrom is pretty useless unless he's in a top 6 role. His defense is awful and if he's not playing with skilled players he serves no purpose. I imagine assuming he is willing to avoid arbitration he gets a shot in the top 6 at camp next year playing with either Crosby or Malkin and if he doesn't stick he probably is placed on waivers. It's just as likely he signs somewhere in Europe this offseason though. Ponomarev is a bad defensive player who also probably needs to be in the top 6 and I don't see an opening for him. I think the team really needs to think about moving Malkin to the wing as his defense is pretty awful and won't get better as he gets older but he could still be a contributor on the wing and his limitations are hidden better when he is responsible for defending opposing teams defenseman. I would love to get Dubois. He's big, skates well and has performed well in the playoffs on mostly bad teams. His contract is a little overvalued but that would allow you to probably get him in a bad contact swap. He's so young still and I think playing on the same team with Crosby would be really beneficial for him.

Shane has exceptional player status, they aren't going to make that exception for everyone.
Not to mention Shane should have played for SEA this year instead of being in the AHL.

Exceptional player status is only to play early in the CHL. Any player can play in the AHL if their pro team decides it's best for the players development and they signed a pro contract. The WHL, OHL, QMJHL team will always back down and allow it if that's what the pro team wants. There has been zero times where a team wanted to put a 19 year old player in the AHL and a CHL team said no. It's the same way how even the pro team has a lot of control over how the CHL team will utilize the player. It doesn't happen often because most of the time a player staying an additional year in the CHL still has plenty to work on and isn't AHL ready to begin with so playing against players in their late 20'sand early 30's and getting 4th line minutes isn't typically best for their development.

right, he has a history of being treated different. And for good reason.
The CHL isn't going to make exception for all players and if they do so Yager then a dozen teams will want the same treatment and a dozen players the next year too.
It's not happening. The CHL is willing to make exceptions of certain guys, Wright is one of them, Yager is not.
It's not even worth arguing, i don't know why you are festering on and can't just admit he won't be in the AHL next year.

As for best development path you really don't know any of that. The best path for guys who have shown they have played past the one level is to move them to the next. While the NHL is skipping one level you don't get the option to go there. He has as little to gain at the CHL next year as Blom does to gain in the AHL next year. His best option is to let him come in work with the pro training staff, dietitians, coaches and let them help him with his game. All things They are way more help then coaches at the CHL level. Not to mention get him accustom to learning how to be a pro and actually start learning how to get his stuff together as a young adult starting a career. Something he would have to do at the AHL level but won't be able to do at the CHL level.
It's probably better to pair him with a vet like Rusty who can look out for him off the ice while Crosby can mentor him on being a center and help with faceoffs etc..
Clearly in an ideal world getting him to the AHL would be the best option, but you don't get that option. You do no harm in his development putting him up to the NHL level when at the lower level he doesn't really face the competition level he needs which is why he's racking up a 1.66 ppg as a +1. Trying to be a 2ppg next year isn't going to make him a better player if anything it will just lead him to learning bad habits as he'll get use to doing things he can't get away with at the NHL level. Better to put him in a spot where the competition is harder.