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ChiHawk

Membre depuis
24 avr. 2017
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Blackhawks de Chicago
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Forum: Armchair-GM13 avr. à 13 h 11
Sujet: The 1 percent chance Kane wants 34 over detroit
<div class="quote"><div class="quote_t">Quoting: <b>TheBoyDuddus</b></div><div>He played his whole career for one of the most prestigious teams in the league and helped put them back on the map, did his time as a rental in his home state for another extremely prestigious team with history then hand picked a third team of the same cloth. If he wants to continue with the original 6 theme, Montreal is off the board but it would leave Toronto or Boston as options.

It would fit his profile but I have to agree that he's probably not going north of the border. Buffalo would be interesting is he wants to go home and help them make the jump t the playoffs.</div></div>

He bought a home for $5M or $6M in the Chicago suburbs and spent a year gutting it and his girlfriend and baby moved in at the end of last year. I don't think he's going to venture too far as he clearly is planting his roots in chicago which makes sense as he has said many times, that he wants to work for Chicago after his career. I'm betting he ends up back in detroit frankly and ends his career for a season or two in chicago since Detroit is so close.
Forum: Armchair-GM13 avr. à 11 h 24
Sujet: 2024 opening night
<div class="quote"><div class="quote_t">Quoting: <b>Garak</b></div><div>You were the one who said $3M. I was just using your number. There are many ways to make the numbers work. Players and agents aren't concerned with AAV, they are concerned with real dollars. If the team can structure a contract in a way that both, makes the player/agent happy, and keeps the AAV down, it is a win win scenario. All I'm saying is they should be thinking about that. Because money will eventually get tight again, and if his offense doesn't pick up, a contract like that could become a problem. Also, as I stated in another comment, he is not arbitration eligible. They could make it work for both sides.</div></div>

Was saying that from the perspective of being an RFA, a hometown boy, and the Hawks getting extremely lucky on a bridge deal as a basement number. But market value is a different thing, $3M would be 100% underpaid on a bridge and even more underpaid as a factor into a long term deal thus taking the ability away for Vlasic to really cash in at the age of 24 or 25.
Forum: Armchair-GM13 avr. à 11 h 18
Sujet: 2024 opening night
<div class="quote"><div class="quote_t">Quoting: <b>Garak</b></div><div>Sure. I could argue that too. But it just isn't how negotiations work. But players generally want to help their team too. AAV is just an average. If they can structure the payment schedule in a way that works for all sides while also driving down the AAV, then it's a win win scenario.

Also, Before anyone else was saying it, I WAS THE ONE who first proposed a $6.5M x 8 year deal for him, and everyone called me crazy for it earlier in the season. Might've even been over the summer when I proposed that.</div></div>

But an AAV of $5.2 over 8 years is just off. $6.5M AAV would be more inline with the first couple years paid out around $4m and going upwards from there.

That all said, I believe everyone is going to end up on a bridge because he did something incredible in his rookie season, vastly improving over last year, but it all being just one year. If they bridge him for 2 or 3 years he remains a RFA i'm pretty sure. Of course assuming he continues to perform like this season and slightly get better, in 3 years the Hawks will certainly be looking at $6.5M to $8M AAV against the rising cap and a more complete resume.
Forum: Armchair-GM13 avr. à 11 h 13
Sujet: 2024 opening night
<div class="quote"><div class="quote_t">Quoting: <b>Garak</b></div><div>All on shorter term deals, with way larger sample sizes showing consistency throughout their careers, and most of them putting up significantly more offense. AAV and actual salary are two different things. By combining the bridge deal with his third contract they can take the AAV or cap hit down to a more manageable level. If they see him as a long term piece, they should just skip the bridge deal and put it all in one contract to drive down the cap hit.

Also, I edited my previous comment with an example of a contract structure to reflect what I am trying to say.</div></div>

None of the players I mentioned showed what Vlasic has at 22 years old in his rookie season. They also all signed those agreements when there was a lower cap ceiling and thus taking up a bigger percentage of cap at the time.

Regard offense, all were playing on much better teams offensively then the Hawks so the difference between a 16 point player and a 32 point player for a shutdown d man could be largely attributed to that alone....seems like a massive jump offensive but really isn't. Shutdown guys especially benefit with point production based on the team around them so don't believe that's part of the argument.

I get what you are doing, but the first 3 years in your model he is severely underpaid against those comps, with Slavin being the closest one signing at 23 years old 6 years ago taking for $5.3M which was a much higher percentage of cap at that time. Brodin signed for $4.2M 9 years ago at age 22 coming off his ELC coming off a very similar performance as Vlasic. The math simply doesn't add up against what you are suggesting given the cap increases and looking at these comps 6 or 9 years ago. In other words, years 1, 2, and 3 would need to start with at least a number of $4.5m to upwards of $6m to remotely be considered fair value using Slavin or Brodin's first contract as a comp 6 and 9 years later.

There is very little question given these comps and considering the cap increases including going into next year and the % of total cap at the time on those comps that Vlasic will take anything less than $4m to $5m on a bridge deal let alone a long term AAV of $5M to $5.5m.
Forum: Armchair-GM13 avr. à 10 h 49
Sujet: 2024 opening night
<div class="quote"><div class="quote_t">Quoting: <b>Garak</b></div><div>I disagree with this. Shutdown dmen don't make $8M. If he signed at $5.2M for 8 years, he would be overpaid for the first 2 to 4 years of the contract. Which means overall, he will have made more money in total than he would have on a bridge plus his contract after the bridge deal. At his peak, as a shutdown defenseman, $5.2M should be right in line with market value. The only way he gets $8M or more is if he adds a ton of offense to his game. Which is possible, but, again, the overpayment in the first few years of the contract should be able to make up for that discrepancy, and if they structure the contract properly and backload the deal, he will be making that much or close enough to it in the back half of the contract, just at a lower AAV, which helps the team.</div></div>

No way. Gudas just signed this season for $4M and he's 33 years old. Brodin signed at 28 years old for $6M 3 years ago. McDonagh signed at 30 years old for $6.75M 5 years ago. Slavin signed 6 years ago, age 23 at $5.3M which is probably the closest to Vlasic...6 years ago!

With a 22 year old on a long term deal playing at the level of those players today, and you're paying for future ability obviously and against a rising cap, those comps aren't going to land Vlasic. Player contracts are based on a % against the total cap obviously. When all those players signed the cap limits were lower and they were much older aside from Slavin. Not only would he NOT be overpaid at $5.2M next year...that would be about fair market value (at least in the ballpark), he would be way underpaid in a few years against a rising cap to boot.
Forum: Armchair-GM13 avr. à 10 h 16
Sujet: 2024 opening night
We should stay away from Roslovic, not the right guy for 2C even short term or the Hawks system.

Highly doubt Vlasic would sign an 8 year deal at $5.2M. Remember, as a 22 year rookie against the toughest assignments, he's ranked top 3 defensive players in the defensive zone. If Vlasic were never to improve from this season, unlikely given his age and the improvement from a year ago, he'd be worth $6M minimum to $8M on a 8 year deal. He and his agent are not only wouldn't take a penny less, they will bet on him improving and thus almost certainly don't want a 8 year deal unless it's around $8M which the Hawks probably wouldn't do. For that reason, he's likely a 3 year bridge and going to land anywhere from $3M to $5M on a 3 year bridge deal is my guess. If I'm Chicago though, I'd push to lock him up between $6M and $7M on a 8 year deal as that will look like a bargain in a few years with Vlasic almost certainly improving and the cap continuing to rise. We could be looking at the best shutdown defender in the league in a couple years, and I'd argue if he had played 6 less games last season in the NHL and could qualify for the Calder, he'd be in the conversation right behind Bedard and Faber with a pretty good argument.

I think the Hawks bring in a cheap RHD vet for 1 or 2 years until Rinzel (or Levshunov if the Hawks draft him) are ready for the show. Keep rotating Del Mastro, Kaiser, Crevier and Philips all getting chances to play 20 games on the left side 3rd line. The good news is all 4 have shown they can play in the league to varying degrees with Del Mastro probably ahead of the class of 4. Certainly at least 1 or 2 will get moved in the next couple years. The question mark to me is Allan. Can Allan play on his off-side in the NHL and be good enough in a 3rd line role? He's played a fair amount on his off-side, so could be interesting or perhaps the Hawks don't think highly enough of him. My rankings of those 5 are as follows; Del Mastro, Kaiser, Crevier, Alan, Phillips in that order. It's a logjam for sure.
Forum: Armchair-GM10 avr. à 18 h 29