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ChiHawk

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24 avr. 2017
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Blackhawks de Chicago
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Forum: Armchair-GMdim. à 14 h 39
<div class="quote"><div class="quote_t">Quoting: <b>NYR1983</b></div><div>If you want to make the argument for him saying yes to a top 10 pick them make an acgm with that being the offer… again all this is your opinion which completely contradicts everything drury has said and done.. but if you want to play pretend that he would suddenly change then go right ahead.</div></div>

If you don't think Drury would take a top 10 pick for Kaapo, which is YOUR opinion, then it's your right to have that opinion but isn't substantiated. Kaapo after 5 seasons is simply nowhere near being worth a top 10 pick...that's not opinion, that is simple fact based on the historical trade market. Drury also knows that top 10 pick is more valuable than Kaapo (fact), so if he was offered that in the offseason, he would use it as trade bait to land a better player as a top 10 pick 1000% would land a better player than Kaapo can in isolation.

You've got guys like Philipp Kurashev, 4 seasons in, a former 4th rounder, with 46 points in 63 games which is way better than Kaapo and it's unlikely he's worth a late 1st for comparison (which I have here in this GM) and not a chance the Hawks would trade him for Kaapo straight up for Kaapo even though Drury would love that move all day long. To suggest Drury wouldn't take a top 10 pick for Kaapo to use that as a very valuable asset to get a better player is simply bad asset management and I don't believe Drury is bad at managing assets. I do think fans get attached to players and are still holding onto the fact that Kaapo was a former 2nd overall 5 seasons ago. Notice how every one that's not a Rangers fan either says this trade is fair or Chicago shouldn't give up a late 1st for Kaapo...those are non-biased opinions and fans tend to overvalue their own players for the aforementioned reasons.

It was also widely reported that Drury was listening to offers on Kaapo, and I'm willing to bet not a single team offered him a top 10 pick or the equivalent value in a player; the market rates don't lend itself to anything better.

All opinions be it yours or mine boil down to we aren't Drury...so only he knows. However, as widely reported Kaapo is not untouchable and the market dictates what's he's worth at the end by using historical trade values and Kaapo simply isn't worth more than a late 1st currently and he's definitely not going to land a solid top 6 payer unless he's a rental. Drury isn't an idiot though.
Forum: Armchair-GMsam. à 12 h 41
<div class="quote"><div class="quote_t">Quoting: <b>Garak</b></div><div>Yeah. I'm aware of what guys like Wheeler and Pronman are saying. But those two, especially, being with one of the larger hockey publications out there, are always conservative with their rankings and words. Plenty of other public scouts have differing opinions on this years crop. Wheeler and Pronman are not the authority or the "professionals", in my opinion. They are professional writers, or another resource and another voice in the discussion, nothing more. And, like many scouts, they are very often wrong. In my opinion and that of some other public scouts, there are plenty of guys in this draft with top of the lineup potential outside of the top 10. I do not believe the drop off is as dramatic as they are making it seem.</div></div>

I get it, but they do, just like scouts, go out and watch in person which a lot of random publications don't. That said, they aren't scouts and like scouts get a lot wrong (the success rate in the NHL is obviously very low), but they are more qualified IMO then most of the other publications.

That said, there is always potential in the the first round to be top of the lineup players, but very few every draft year make it to that ceiling. I do see guys like Greentree, Ignila, Parascak, Parekh, Catton, etc. as far as forwards and outside of the top 8 picks in the draft of having a chance of course, but the likihood of those being top of the lineup players becomes more luck than anything...way too hard to see who develops at this point and is able to improve their shortcomings. Maybe 1 or 2 hits, but they are more than likely middle 6 players or worse IMO.

Every year everyone also gets excited for the current draft and think the draft year is better than it is. 2017 and 2018 were prime examples of this and are old enough to look in hindsight to see how many top of the lineup players. You can even go look at 2019 at this point, which is a stronger draft year, and see how many misses in the first round as far as top the lineup players...maybe 5 or so out of that draft year? I don't think 2024 is better than any of those 3 years and the results are, very few are top of the lineup players.
Forum: Armchair-GMsam. à 11 h 48
<div class="quote"><div class="quote_t">Quoting: <b>Garak</b></div><div>I don't think this opinion is going to age well. But we shall see. I think if McQueen falls in the draft order, it will be because others rise, and not because of his own ability. He is going to be an exceptional top 6 power forward, imo.



Passing on Lindstrom is going going to be regretted by a lot of teams if he doesn't go in the top 5. haha



I disagree. I think there is a ton of potential outside of the top 10, and even into the 2nd round. Iginla, Misa, Chernyshov, Artamonov, Sennecke, Boisvert, Stiga, Brunicke, Badinka, Freij, Hutson, Masse, Basha, Parascak, Kiviharju, Jiricek, I could go on and on. There are so many guys with top of the lineup potential in there.

If we are comparing to last year, yeah, it's definitely "weaker." But last year was an abnormally deep draft, that we probably won't see again for a while. On average, this is a very good draft without any steep dropoffs, aside from after Celebrini and then another somewhere in the mid 2nd to early 3rd, probably. Though, I think the drop off after Celebrini has more to do with readiness than what it will look like with the benefit of hindsight in a few years.</div></div>

That's counter to what a few experts are saying including Wheeler who recently just published in The Athletic. The fall off from top line potential is dramatic to most years with only the top 4 or 5 truly having top line potential. Top 6/top 4 it opens up to the top 9 or 10. After that it is noticeably weak with bottom line/bottom 6 guys and by the last 3rd players who have a chance to play "some games" in the NHL.. This according to their analysis. All the guys you listed are Tier 3 or Tier 4, meaning middle or bottom of the lineup guys with outside chance of top 2/top 4 line guys.

2026 is supposed to be particularly strong again, with 2025 being slightly better than 2024.
Forum: Armchair-GMsam. à 11 h 44
<div class="quote"><div class="quote_t">Quoting: <b>Wadejos123</b></div><div>Chicago won't be drafting top 5 in 2026 so I guess it's good that it should be deeper. I'd love to snag another 26 1st via cap dump acquisition this summer</div></div>

I think you're right but who knows how the lottery balls bounce and where they end up in the standings. What is certain is for the next 2 seasons they will have a top 10 pick as I don't see this team being competitive until the 26/27 season with the Hawks making a splash or two in free agency in the summer of 2026.

Let's say this draft they take Demidov, Lindstrom, or Levshunov this year, they all should be ready for the 2026/2027 season (Demidov not earlier because of his KHL contract). I would argue the 2025 draft will be more important to take a forward versus defender because of the timetable to have someone ready to play in the NHL within 15 months to start the 2026/2027 season. At that point, the Hawks will have Vlasic, Bedard, Korchinski, Commesso, Nazar, Moore, Rinzel, maybe Gajan, Salggert, and any of Kaiser, Allan, Del Mastro, Dach, Hayes, Greene, etc. plus a fairly young Reichel and Kurashev. The window to start competing will be wide open at that point. Add Levshunov/Demidov/Lindstrom to that list and the 2025 draft pick with 15 months of conditioning if they draft a forward and they should because just looking at the list here of most hopefuls, it's easy to see the number of forwards is lacking.

For the 2026 draft, as you pointed out it is unlikely they get a top 5 pick, that player won't be ready likely until the 2027/2028 season or later.
Forum: Mock-Draftsam. à 11 h 29
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