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AC14

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23 déc. 2022
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Blues de St-Louis
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Forum: Armchair-GM14 août 2023 à 15 h 29
Sujet: Top D for willy
<div class="quote"><div class="quote_t">Quoting: <b>AC14</b></div><div>Blues cannot afford to pay Nylander what he wants, and Blues cannot afford to move Parayko. Contrary to popular belief, Parayko is not a shell of himself. His role has substantially increased as his partners have substantially decreased. No other d man in the league is asked to play 20 minutes + a night 5v5 with 30% ozs.

I don’t think he’s worth the Leafs trading a guy like Nylander for. But the Blues cannot afford to extend Nylander, nor can they afford to lose Parayko. The rest of our d core aside from Bortuzzo is offensive minded and needs to be heavily sheltered which is why Parayko is asked to do what he’s being asked to do with a combination of Mikkola, Scandella and Leddy.</div></div>

People don't respect guys like kyrou, Thomas, even schenn enough...it's becoming very difficult to get into the playoffs these days and st. Louis has lost Pietrangelo, orielly Tarasenko but they are still very good most people just repeat what they hear from rumours and those who talk too much and don't watch the games enough...that's why I chased parayko because he's still elite...hope the blues make a good run next year, cheers!
Forum: Armchair-GM15 juill. 2023 à 20 h 53
Sujet: Certainly
<div class="quote"><div class="quote_t">Quoting: <b>GMDannyB</b></div><div>How does $6M worth of cap dumps, a 2024 1st, and a 2026 2nd get you Laughton when the Flyers turned down a 2023 1st and a 2023 2nd for Laughton? The Flyers have already turned down a better deal than this. I don’t expect an overpay or hate the Oilers you all just makes bad trades with no research done and expect people to not tell you they make no sense</div></div>

Because no one ever offered you that for Laughton but you are not intelligent enough to realize it.<div class="quote"><div class="quote_t">Quoting: <b>JKCpp</b></div><div>Hmm I think maybe u should be pissed the flyers declined those offers cause they won’t get anything better than that and if you did any research then u would know foegle isn’t a cap dump lmao</div></div>
Forum: Armchair-GM3 juill. 2023 à 22 h 44
Forum: Armchair-GM29 juin 2023 à 1 h 35
Sujet: Outlook going into the season
<div class="quote"><div class="quote_t">Quoting: <b>AC14</b></div><div>The last thing the Blues really need is a top 6 winger. The only thing conceivable that the Blues could do right now is rework the defense a bit. I don't think ROR was ever in the plans. He's earned a bigger contract than we could afford even if we did move Krug and Scandella. ROR was a fantastic player and i and i'm sure most would love to have him back but it's not realistic. He's towards the last 3-4 years of his career and our outlook for the next 2-3 years is questionable at best.

In all reality, today and I'd say moreso towards the Hayes trade solidified the direction this team is going to go unless some miracle falls in their lap. Our defense will most likely remain the same and our forward group outside of a 4th line center is pretty complete. If i had to guess the Blues will add a veteran 4th line center who is heavier to play against and a good character guy to leave the door open for a guy like Dean or Alexandrov to take the 4th line center spot out of camp. We are one high end defensive prospect away from having an extremely competitive core coming up, easier said than done sure, but missing the playoffs next season would be just as, if not more beneficial than making the playoffs next year. It's essentially a win-win. Our forward core longterm looks really really good. Thomas and Dvorsky as top 6 centers in 2 years for probably the next 5 years out after that is a very solid base. You add in high compete and character guys like Stenberg, Snuggerud and Neighbors and there's a winning formula there. The high octane offensive ability is also there with Kyrou and to a lesser degree Bolduc. Now i'm sure someone out of that group doesn't stick or hit their ceiling, but Stenberg, Neighbors and Snuggerud are all puck hounds who one way or another are going to make it to the NHL. Dvorsky is a pretty surefire lock to be at least a middle 6 center and he's probably the youngest player in that draft, so there's conceiivably more there than what the eye can show you now.

Linstein is probably a #4 defenseman at best but he's also a pretty surefire bet to be an NHLer. Our current group most likely isn't going anywhere which is not ideal, but it's fine. Parayko for all the hate he gets around here is at minimum an anchor of a 2nd pairing shutdown pair. Faulk is at minimum an offensive 2nd pairing guy. Krug is a specialist, but he's good at what he does, he just is bad at negating goals against. Leddy is whatever, but regardless of the eye test i'll still standby the fact that he had a pretty good season last season results wise even if I or others dont like his game.

Hayes, Kapanen and Vrana are all pretty decent NHL players even if they aren't top 6 guys (Vrana is a top 6 guy but his question marks are a bit different). Hayes will probably be here for a while, which is fine he seems like a high character guy and his contract is pretty cheap relative to market for a middle 6 center. Kapanen and Vrana most likely bring back a decent return at the deadline if we stink which is likely, but filter that in next off season with a one or two season stop gap and we're in a pretty good spot overall.</div></div>

Agreed with everything. I'll post my response to a local group to add to my stance.

"I’m disappointed but also moreso relieved that we didn’t use any of the picks to acquire anyone to help us short-term. Like this whole summer I was thinking it would be amazing to dump any of Krug/Leddy/Scandella and acquire someone like Hanifin or Ferraro with intention to re-sign. Now it’s kinda looking like we won’t do much to try and fix the D, but we can try to play it out and bounce back Krug’s value a bit and try to move him again next year. Plus we have expiring contracts in Vrana Kapanen and Scandella that we can retain on and sell for solid assets assuming we aren’t going for it. Just nice to have a solid draft and get a bit of closure on where we’re headed. With our current prospect pool and great assets to come going into next draft, we could be competitive again in just a few years, with all homegrown talent."
Forum: Armchair-GM24 juin 2023 à 14 h 1
Forum: Armchair-GM22 juin 2023 à 19 h 20
Forum: Armchair-GM21 juin 2023 à 15 h 28
Sujet: Binningbust
<div class="quote"><div class="quote_t">Quoting: <b>sens65</b></div><div>He got 37 points this year, that's worth like $3.5 million.</div></div>

For one, a $4.5 million player playing like a $3.5 million player =/= cap dump. He might be a cap *casualty* of a larger deal, but a cap dump is like...Nikita Zaitsev. Someone you have to pay to get rid of.

For two, the Athletic had his value at $4.4million last year anyway. A down year by counting stats, but still contributing more or less exactly what his AAV is.

For third, you know who else had a down year by his standards? Uhh...Alex Debrincat! What's a 50-70 point winger worth these days? A 3rd and a 2nd for Bjorkstrand? A 2nd and a 4th liner for Buchnevich? Don't suppose you'd be taking any of that for Debrincat though and rightfully so because you would be expecting your buyers to be reasonable and look beyond a down season when he was on a bad team, and take into account other recent years of higher performance and paying accordingly.

The Blues would be expecting the same if they were entertaining a Saad trade (though obviously, of course, not expecting the same caliber of return).
Forum: Armchair-GM21 juin 2023 à 11 h 32
Sujet: Debrincat and Hanifin
<div class="quote"><div class="quote_t">Quoting: <b>AC14</b></div><div>This is simply my opinion. But i don't think a top 4 of Parayko, Hanifin, Faulk and Leddy is a bad thing whatsoever. I think it fits a more suitable situation of not having to hammer Parayko in the defensive zone all game because the rest of our d pairings don't have two defenseman who are capable of playing in the d zone. I would venture to guess something similar to that would be more of a 50 and 50 split versus a 36 for Parayko and 58 for Faulk because you can feel confident putting Faulk and Leddy out there that they aren't going to be caved in every time. A lot of it comes down to usage too. The root issue at hand here is that those aren't the 4 defenseman that are in that tier. We have a 5th defenseman being paid a large sum of money on top of those guys forcing that usage to be more difficult for the other two pairs.

Overall am i confident that a defense with those 4 as a top 4 can contend? No, but I sure as hell am alot more confident doing that then having a pairing that's stationed to go out there every defense zone draw because you are terrified of what happens if you put someone else out there. Now is it worth spending a boatload to test it, that i'm not too sure of unfortunately. Our defense is certainly our biggest flaw, but we have some other flaws as well. Kyrou's mismanagement of the puck, Binnington not really having a great season in quite some time, a rookie backup goalie, a lack of a true top line. those 4 are certainly something that can be overcome, but it's really all for nothing if we keep continually giving up backdoor tap ins because we can only trust one pair, and in all reality it wasn't a pair that was extremely great as is.</div></div>

Well, going by this proposal it would be Hanifin-Parayko-Faulk-Krug, but I take your general point. But the thing with me is salary. It seems like they can't move Krug, are reluctant to move Parayko and are unwilling to move Faulk. So you add Hanifin in and you get a year out of him at a decent salary but then you immediately have to hand him an extension for his late twenties and early thirties. And to me I just don't see how that's much different from what we have been doing- acquiring UFA defenseman at the near peak of their value and then paying them the most they'll ever make.

Obviously the team has other issues too, but if suddenly you're making a bloated defense core already more bloated by adding another guy maxing out his value, you're really handcuffing your ability to address those other issues. A defense with four defenders making 6.5 million each would be more expensive than Tampa's top four, Vegas' top four, Colorado's top four, and Boston's top four. And all of those guys have some pretty pricey defenseman on their rosters. So the Blues are paying a ton, and getting arguably a less quality defense than those other contending teams- who also have expensive defenders.

It might work for one year while Hanifin is cheap (like you said though, far from a sure thing) but I'm just not really sure what the contention window looks like with Hanifin presumably locked in next year. I would prefer they target someone younger and cheaper with less of a track record, because for me the risk isn't all that much different in the short term and much less worrisome in the long term. I'd almost rather just run the same group out and burn a year than try to add another decent but pricey defender to try to will a mediocre d group back to contention status. That's been their approach since 2020, and it hasn't been working.
Forum: Armchair-GM8 juin 2023 à 10 h 10
Sujet: Curious
Yeah I'm not doing that if I am either team

I don't see a fit with the Blues. Maybe something around Schenn and Neighbours?

PS : love the Description in the OP, damn Dorion is bad

<div class="quote"><div class="quote_t">Quoting: <b>AC14</b></div><div>I don’t think washed up is the best way to put it. But there’s certainly reason for concern, and I can’t see him fetching near what Ottawa paid for him.

Last season wasn’t great for him, and it’s the first season away from Kane. Reason for concern, but minimal, he still produced at a decent rate.

His QO pretty much ensures he’s gets a large pay day. Nobody or at least no fan wants to see their team sign an undersized winger coming off his worst season in the first season of changed circumstances to 8m+/year. It’s highly volatile.

There’s also an odd frenzy of people way overvaluing cap space, but at the same time, most teams cannot fit in 8m+ on Debrincat and pay a large futures package with no salary going back the other way.

For the blues as listed above, the fit just isn’t there. We have too many holes and too many question marks and too limited cap space to fix them.

Also just a short aside after scrolling through some other replies, chances of the Blues moving Snuggerud or the 10th pick are very very slim.

Snuggerud had a fantastic season and plays a pretty blues style of hockey and the Blues haven’t picked near the 10 spot in a long long time.</div></div>

Keep in mind DeBrincat had to play with rookie Pinto as his center, a guy who had just missed a full season due to injury. DeBrincat would have produced more if Norris had been healthy. Both DeBrincat and Batherson suffered a lot from Norris injury, particularly defensively (offense comes from good defense). Pinto is good and will be great (will develop into a Danault type) but way too much responsibility for a rookie Center coming off a serious injury

DeBrincat needs to fit the team that will acquire him, a team strong at Center but that lacks goal scoring wingers. Blues are not a fit.

And I totally understand not wanting to move a prospect like Snuggerud, same as we didn't want to move Pinto and Greig, even for Chychrun
Forum: Armchair-GM8 juin 2023 à 7 h 49
Sujet: Curious
<div class="quote"><div class="quote_t">Quoting: <b>AC14</b></div><div>I don’t think washed up is the best way to put it. But there’s certainly reason for concern, and I can’t see him fetching near what Ottawa paid for him.

Last season wasn’t great for him, and it’s the first season away from Kane. Reason for concern, but minimal, he still produced at a decent rate.

His QO pretty much ensures he’s gets a large pay day. Nobody or at least no fan wants to see their team sign an undersized winger coming off his worst season in the first season of changed circumstances to 8m+/year. It’s highly volatile.

There’s also an odd frenzy of people way overvaluing cap space, but at the same time, most teams cannot fit in 8m+ on Debrincat and pay a large futures package with no salary going back the other way.

For the blues as listed above, the fit just isn’t there. We have too many holes and too many question marks and too limited cap space to fix them.

Also just a short aside after scrolling through some other replies, chances of the Blues moving Snuggerud or the 10th pick are very very slim.

Snuggerud had a fantastic season and plays a pretty blues style of hockey and the Blues haven’t picked near the 10 spot in a long long time.</div></div>

I appreciate your breakdown here of the possible reasoning behind why Debrincats value may have slumped slightly! Can I give a rebuttal to this from a sens point of view?

Reasoning why his point total dropped in my eyes are his most used linemates were Pinto and Batherson. With Norris going down early in the season this was probably worst case scenario as Pinto is still getting used to the league and coming off of shoulder surgery, Batherson is a productive forward but also had a rough year based off of previous years.

I think not playing with the likes of Stutzle (Ottawas obvious top forward) or Tkachuk and Norris going down for pretty much the entire season is a major reason why you saw Debrincat's numbers slip it's not bc of necessarily being away from Kane Debincat but it was more so the linemates and the system that Ottawa plays (dump and chase) which aren't the fit.

I do believe personally as much as I love Debrincat as a player and am a sens fan that Pierre Dorion is a bit of an idiot and jumped the gun last offseason. He doesn't really know how what he's doing as GM or who to go after stylistically to fit the system. At this point he should probably fire the coach and bring in someone who plays a possession style to fit Debrincat, Norris, Stutzle, Batherson, Chychrun and Chabots style of play more so that they can actually succeed