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AC14

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Blues de St-Louis
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Forum: Armchair-GM4 déc. 2023 à 17 h 56
Sujet: Will Snuggerud and Dvo Leapfrog Bolduc and Dean
<div class="quote"><div class="quote_t">Quoting: <b>AC14</b></div><div>I took a few things away from this. I think the Kings do still have the culture of winning. Heck Doughty, Kopitar and Quick were some of the faces of those runs they went on. I think this is what pushes them over the edge currently to having them have been extremely successful the past two seasons. I think it's a model that's extremely similar to the Blues model. The outcome is the process of the whole type of situation.

I do agree with you though, I don't really consider them a true top end team. They aren't a Tampa, and barring Byfield ascending to being a true 1C with high end output and Clarke doing the same I don't think they'll get there. But what they do have is an extremely good base that should keep them successful and give them a chance for the next 5, probably 10 years.

I also don't really think the Pacific has been all that great anytime in the recent past. Alot of teams with alot of true issues.

But the good news for them is they have an environment for guys like Byfield and Brandt to be brought into good positions and be the alpha dogs there in the next 2-3 years while winning and doing so. I don't mind Armstrong shooting for this. But I also am not sure it's feasible to avoid the longterm turnaround. One way or another we're going to have to age out the Krug contract, ESPECIALLY if Doug isn't going to play hardball on the NTC.

I'm in a boat that has a pretty large appreciation for Armstrong as the GM and President of Hockey Ops. I think he's very concealed, but also very open and honest about his direction. Has he had some mistakes? For sure. I don't think anyone is going to know what exactly went down with the whole Pietrangelo situation. But that was a major root into the downfall of the roster. Not necessarily just because of the loss of Pietrangelo, but also because of the moves that seemed to be made out of urgency to try and fill the gap.</div></div>

Well the Byfield/Brandt thing, that's more or less what the Blues did with Thomas and Kyrou right? The team was good when those guys were coming up after being mediocre-ish when they were drafted. The Blues just couldn't maintain the momentum. Maybe you can blame some of it on the flat cap but you talk about Pietrangelo leaving- like to me that was just the worst offender of a problem the Blues had for awhile, which is that they seemed to stop understanding what made defensemen valuable, and generally acted very reactively.

- You extend Faulk into his mid thirties when he had never played a game while you're trying to re-sign your captain
- Bouwmeester goes down permanently and your only LHD is Vince Dunn so you panic and extend Scandella in his mid thirties based on 10 games while still trying to re-sign your captain
- Pietrangelo leaves so you panic and extend Krug (never mind that Devon Toews was traded three days later)
- Extend Parayko coming off a back injury until he's 37 because you can't fathom another Pietrangelo situation
- Scandella can't hack top four minutes (who would have thought?) so you panic trade for Leddy (giving away a future top pairing defenseman in the process)

Some of these guys are big. Some of them are small. Some of them are offensive. Some of them not so much. Some of them are puck movers, some not. They're all over the place except for one thing- they're old, and they're as expensive as they'll ever be. And in the meantime they hemorrhage younger guys who would go on to play top pairing minutes on other teams, and look pretty good doing it.

I don't mean to relitigate all this but when it comes to Armstrong- I think he's a decent GM, can't deny the ring, but I do think all GMs have a shelf life, and that timeline of mismanagement on the blue line is pretty damming. And frankly, I like Travis Sanheim but that's another guy signed into oblivion Armstrong supposedly tried to trade for. Not exactly indicative of someone learning their lesson to me. He can be a good GM but also, idk, for me maybe it's time.
Forum: Armchair-GM4 déc. 2023 à 15 h 56
Sujet: Will Snuggerud and Dvo Leapfrog Bolduc and Dean
<div class="quote"><div class="quote_t">Quoting: <b>AC14</b></div><div>So i did a little bit of brief digging because i was moreso interested in how the Kings exactly went about things because the draft picks the higher ones really have not been a huge factor thus far.

2017-2018 45-29-8 (98 points)
Notable Salaries:
Doughty 11m Thru 25-26 Still Active
Kopitar 10m thru 23-24 Still Active
Quick 5.8m thru 22-23 Traded last deadline
Brown 5.875 thru 21-22 Ran through Expiry
Kovalchuk 6.25 thru 20-21 (Contract Terminated 2019)
Martinez 4m thru 20-21 (Traded 2020 (2 2nd round picks))
Carter 5.275 thru 21-22 (Traded 2021 50% retained on expiring deal for 3rd + 4th)

After this season is when their collapse started equivalent to last season for us. They had made a few small additions in the offseason but nothing big.

2018-2019 31-42-9 (71 points)
extended Walker 2.65 thru 23-24
Maata 3.33 thru 21-22
Kempe 2m x 2
Iafollo 2.425 one year

The following 2 seasons they did largely nothing

2019-2020 29-35-6 (64 points)
No significant adds very similar

2020-2021 (49 points) COVID Year 6th in div
No significant adds very similar

Then this is where they started to be aggressive as there was very limited time on Brown, Maata expiring. Quick couple years left.
2021-2022 (99 points)
Added Danault
Added Arvidsson
added Edler
extended Roy
added Athanasiou
Trevor Moore Bridge
Stetcher minimal contract

Then the next year they added Fiala and that's pretty current to where they stand. Now there was certainly youth that came in to play in this but it wasn't very significant.

Vilardi 54 games 24 points 2020-21, missed most of 21-22, good season last season then traded in PLD trade.
Kalyiev had a pretty minimal contribution in 21-22, .5ppg last season in limited action, this season looks like he's taking another stride.
Byfield hasn't really jumped until this season. Last season wasn't bad.

What can we learn from this?

LAK realized it pretty quickly and started selling - Armstrong did the same this past season with ROR/Barby/Tarasenko

They then went into a holding pattern to let some of the other contracts run out (Brown, Kovalchuk (got lucky here), Carter, Martinez (debatable if it needed to run out wasn't awful), Quick, Kopitar, Doughty). The last two aren't really part of a problem really, just moreso they are running towards the end of their careers so included them.

What do the Blues have in that front that need to run out?
Saad - 3 more at 4.5m
Hayes - 3 more at 3.6m
Schenn - 5 more at 6.5m
Krug - 4 more at 6.5m
Faulk- 4 more at 6.5m
Leddy- 3 more at 4m
Parayko - 7 more at 6.5m
Scandella - Expiring this season not integral.

You can categorize Parayko, and probably Schenn in that moreso Kopitar and Doughty scenario. But they aren't those two. So there's one hurdle to climb. But what is good (Or bad however you view it) is that we essentially already have our Fiala in Kyrou, I would take Thomas' contribution over PLDs as well.

So while we can probably comp to the pieces that LA had we have alot larger of a hill to climb. Meaning I don't really see too well how we are going to start that uptick in year 4 of the retool without additional work (Moving Faulk/Krug). But what is good is the youth injection that we will probably miss out on isn't what turned things around for LA. However, it's highly likely it's going to be what pushes them upwards even more. So do we <em>Need<em> to bottom out? No not necessarily. LA rebounded with mainly young guys who weren't high end talents jumping up and their roles expanding. What worries me is how we're going to navigate adding in supplemental guys - Arvidsson/Iafollo/Danault/ to help push us over the edge if we dont</em></em></div></div>

Nice work! I'm sure that took a long time lol.

Yeah like I said I'm not totally sold on the Kings as like true cup contenders a big reason for that is a lot of their guys are really good but not great. To their credit, they do have a LOT of those really good guys, more than most teams. Kempe/Fiala/Danault/Roy/Gavrikov, even Dubois (maybe at a reduced price)- these are important guys that you have at the top of your lineup. But, I'm not sure they are the ones that are really making it happen in the playoffs. Kopitar/Doughty- still very very good but I'm not sure if they're still at that gamebreaking level. And then the young guys might just be a little too green.

I guess I'm also not looking at the Kings as a roster that's been "successfully" rebuilt. Like they're good this year and they've been decent the last couple of years. But since they won the cup in 2014 this is how it's gone:

14-15 missed playoffs
15-16 lost in first round
16-17 missed playoffs
17-18 lost in first round
18-19 missed playoffs
19-20 missed playoffs
20-21 missed playoffs
21-22 lost in first round
22-23 lost in first round

Maybe you cut them some slack for running into the Oilers twice and obviously there's still a wide range of possibilities for their future but I guess I'm not looking at this rebuild, with a lot of depth, a lot of big names but not a lot of game breaking talent anymore, and being like "woah the Kings!". They've done some good work here and there but they wasted a lot of prime years of Kopitar and Doughty without much direction after the 2nd cup win, then they rebuilt (which was necessary) and by necessity, had to burn more prime years, and now they're good but like I said I don't know that they have what it takes to get past some of the bigger guns in the conference.

So if Armstrong wants to emulate the Kings, I kind of would hope he would aim higher and be more aggressive (in one way or another).
Forum: Armchair-GM29 nov. 2023 à 14 h 43
Sujet: Blues in 5 years
<div class="quote"><div class="quote_t">Quoting: <b>AC14</b></div><div>Even though we did draft a boat load of LHDs and have quite a few in the system I think we have to keep trying until a guy cements himself as a top 4 guy. I think Lindstein is going to be a nice complimentary 2nd pairing guy which is completely fine. Other guys it's really hard to tell.

Pekarcik reminds me alot of a guy like Toropchenko. Big fast, bull in a china shop type player who has some skill, but probably not enough of it to be in the top 6. Good 3rd/4th liner as long as they keep the bull in a china shop mentality and keep the motor high.

Buchinger is the one in our current system who i think actually has a decent chance to be a long term NHLer on defense.

Tucker seems a bit to slow but his compete level is good enough to keep him regularly somewhere in the NHL for a while as depth.
Perunovich just lost soo much time with injuries. I think if he's willing to take low salary deals he'll be a player, but more so in the role of a bottom pairing guy who can run a powerplay really well - more or less Torey Krug.
Gaudet/Burns/Fischer admittedly I don't think i'm too familiar with them to make a sure judgement. Gaudet seems more like a vanilla defender who may get some time like Kessel currently but who knows.

As far as projecting. It's borderline impossible to, but i'd imagine at least 1 or 2 of our top end forward prospects Neighbors included (Neighbors, Bolduc, Dean, Stenberg,Dvorsky, Snuggerud) don't work out. But that's completely fine with that we will get more prospects over the years to fill the gaps. But the one thing I find interesting is going through and looking at the current roster/other rosters around the league and seeing how few drafted players see sustained time with a team or at least show on their roster after 3-4 years of the ELC expiring.</div></div>

I agree with you that we gotta be realistic about how many of the current prospects are going to be true top six forwards... it may be even lower that what you're imagining...
Snuggerud and Dvorsky, to me, are the most sure-fire top six guys - undeniable NHL shot and compete - but they've also created a little bit of doubt with their inconsistencies in production (yes it's too early to judge)
Bolduc played a great all-around game in juniors but watching him vs pros it's hard to see how he will make that part of his identity - he may be more of a PP threat/sheltered 3rd line guy but likely an NHLer.
Dean was always tracking as a bottom six C aside from an insane playoff heater in the Q (as a 20 yr old fwiw).
Neighbours may always be the 3rd guy on his line but still has promise as being that guy on a scoring line which helps.
Stenberg is an unknown for me. I'm hoping he turns out like Steen where he can be relied on for steady play in any deployment. (Remember when they let him loose and he had 33 goals that one year?!)
Pekarcik has a loooong way to go - he was only like 3 days away from being 2024 eligible - but I've seen some nice flashes from him.

So yeah, I hope they all pan out but realistically we could be looking at 2-3 impact guys. Luckily, there should be money to spend on outside acquisitions, and like you said all the teams have to make tough decisions on who to keep and who to move. Here's to hoping we get better pro scouting than the guys who liked Krug and Leddy more than Dunn and Walman.
Forum: Armchair-GM28 nov. 2023 à 9 h 51
Sujet: Exploring Buch as Meier Comp
<div class="quote"><div class="quote_t">Quoting: <b>mokumboi</b></div><div>Oh are we pretending it's 2+ years ago? And that every awful trade sets the market forever? How on Earth is what the Blues paid for him even infinitesimally relevant here?

Buch is easily morr valuable than Toffoli right now. Also irrelevant.</div></div>

<div class="quote"><div class="quote_t">Quoting: <b>dgibb10</b></div><div>I don't know what to tell you.
We saw what Buchnevich RFA rights went for. We saw the contract he got. His production 5v5 is virtually identical to what it was before then
The UFA market, especially on wingers has a peak, and it isn't all that high.

Meier had a large bidding war because his skillset is valued leaguewide. He got a contract that reflects that.

Just look at what Toffoli went for both times.</div></div>

Yeah the disconnect here really seems to be that one person believes previous trade values are unimpeachable. Buchnevich RFA trades and Meier trades were both not particularly good for the team giving them away, but there were extraneous circumstances that contributed to that in both cases (I outlined why I think the Sharks didn't do very well in the Meier trade in my previous comment. Buchnevich obviously I think the GM didn't do a good enough job to drive up prices but in Drury's defense his team was capped out and Buchnevich was due an unknown muli-million dollar contract with a short resume coming off a year with no fans in the building where most teams were unwilling to spend real dollars).

These previous trade values can only be taken if the context is the same, and I think the circumstances of a hypothetical Buchnevich trade are much different than when he got traded the first time and when Meier was traded to the Devils.

Also this whole "his production at 5v5 is the basically the same" thing, like I get what you're saying but that's not how player values work, even stripping the financial context I just mentioned of that trade. Being a consistent 5v5 player for 5 years is more valuable than being one for 2 years, obviously. Also a player being good on the power play is worth something, GMs aren't just going to pretend that doesn't exist just because it didn't when he was in New York. He got an opportunity in St. Louis and ran with it. He's been a consistent, top line presence in all situations in St. Louis and you could get him for 3 million this year and next year. That should be worth a lot.
Forum: Armchair-GM2 nov. 2023 à 11 h 0
Sujet: Deadline
I think the issue you're running into here though is that a lot of the players you're replacing those moved out with are way over exposed. Bolduc isn't even in the league right now- and not playing particularly great yet in the AHL, frankly- and he's on the top line? Has Neighbours earned a look in the top six? Has Alexandrov earned a spot in the lineup period? I don't really see the forwards we have as blocking anybody from playing time they deserve. Similarly, I'm not thrilled with how Krug and (less so) Leddy have played, but what does Tucker on the top pair do for anybody (especially Tucker himself, who looks over-exposed in a third pair role?).

In addition, most of these vets you're moving, they're not worth anything. No one wants Krug. You're not getting a 1st or even a 2nd for Saad unless he starts playing a lot better. So what's the point? Are you willing to retain on Leddy or Krug? I might be. Are you willing to pay another team in picks or prospects to get rid of them? I think given that this team is bad that doesn't make a lot of sense.

Really the only thing they really need to do is they need to get Perunovich more time in the lineup. He's earned an everyday position, and we have to see if his body can hold up to the rigors of an NHL regular. But that needs to happen now, not at the deadline. Otherwise, just let the chips fall with these guys. I don't see the upside in putting all your young guys in spots they aren't ready for on a team that's not going anywhere.