Yeah the way I see it 25oal straight up for Ullmark makes sense

The 1st rd pick is fine but you're going to have to pay to move your cap dump.

The BOS trade makes sense. If I’m BOS, I want the pick. Forsberg was good against Bos late in the season. I think their goalie coach could make him better if they keep him.

You’re over simplifying the situation. Chychrun is departing too, so SENs are motivated to move him just as much as Bruins are to move Ullmark.
Ullmark has a 15 team NTC, and I’d be willing to bet Ottawa is on it. So he’d have to agree to deal, no guarantees. And if he agreed, he’d probably want an extension worked out - how do you know SENs are willing to meet his asking price?
Finally, trade is in division - & clearly Ottawa is more motivated - Bruins should & will drive a hard bargain

If you're right, and I'm not questioning that you are, Bruins still don't take on Forsberg for free.

but the bruins should also be incentivized to do this so they don’t potentially lose ullmark for nothing next year. I think both sides have some good leverage and they’ll bang out a fair deal

Sweeney has stated that they aren't opposed to running back the tandem. It was already the strength of the team, but they played last season with a 5 million dollar cap penalty, which is essentially Ullmarks contract. Looking at it from that perspective, they should be able to be as good this season as last, with the 15 million in remaining cap after Swayman signs. Definitely not ideal, but holding out for what you want is a move I appreciate the front office trying to do in this situation. If the current return is a late first or 2 years of Chychrun, then don't move Ullmark and get the 5 million back July 1st, 2025.

Of course it will get some backlash as they're currently 29th in prospect pools league-wide, but is one late first going to change that? Unless the next Pastrnak or McAvoy falls to them that far (in a draft where the ledge of top end talent ends around 12-13) I'm not so sure.

i think its 25th going to BOS, chych has more value than ullmark and OTT seems to be trading a D to PHI in that rumor trade framework, it could either be Chabot or chych in that (Branny also a posibility).

also that dont get FLA chych.

If Forsberg is included with no retention, that’s the equivalent of $1.6M of wasted cap when we bury him and probably 1.925M over what he’d sign as a FA. Every time you include him, please realize that’s worth a late second round pick (53 to 57) to dump his salary according to puckpedia. I realize Ottawa fans might view him as full of potential, but he’s basically a minimum caliber goaltender at best. I’d rather sign Driedger.

Also, Ottawa is giving Boston something on top of that late first in this draft. It could be a Klevin, Boucher, or Jarventie on top of the first, but it is going to be a good (not great) prospect.

If Boston won't take Forsberg, then Boston retains on Ullmark.

Not for only a late 1st rd pick.

More likely that Ottawa gives up both 25th and Chychrun with Forsberg than that happening.

For either of those things, Sens have to add on top of the 1st. The first is fair value for Ullmark as is, but it doesn't cover the extra salary considerations

Don’t see the 25th pick in this draft as fair value for Ullmark. At minimum, Ottawa would be adding a prospect or maybe a conditional 3rd that gets upgraded to a 2nd next year if Ottawa makes the playoffs.

It's in line with what goalies tend to go for. Easy to see all the rumors of 1st + Chychrun and want more, but even if it does happen I think it will be broadly agreed that the trade was an overpay. As to Ullmark's "fair" value in particular as a recent Vezina winner being that + a 3rd/Ostapchuk or something...I could be convinced of that.

I struggle with goaltender values in general, because most of them have cap reasons driven behind them.

Jersey just acquired an inferior, older goaltender with a more restrictive trade list for a defenseman probably worth a late 2nd and a top 10 protected pick in 2025 from a team that finished in the top 10. People want to assume that last year was the outlier year for Jersey, Are we sure?

The 25th pick in this draft is past the stage where you are looking at it as good standalone asset. Any pick past 18 fits that description.

Part of me is more inclined to take a package centered around Chychrun because of where the Boston pick is. That said, freedom to spend that money on a forward has some appeal

https://www.nhl.com/bruins/news/bruins-acquire-mark-kastelic-joonas-korpisalo-and-2024-first-round-draft-pick-from-ottawa-senators-in-exchange-for-linus-ullmark

Woof, Sweeney fooled me. Now I really wish they would've just kept Ullmark

Brutal.