Not bad thoughts, but still really close to cap and fewer trade assets to address weaknesses

Not sure a 1st TWO drafts away is enough for someone to eat campbell and the rest of his contract though. A buyout seems more likely. Why not buyout campbell and give PHI the 1st and 2nd and then they retain 50% of risto and give someone a 3rd to retain 50% more, so the campbell buyout and acquiring risto at less than 2mil offset.

The Campbell dump is off some SJS fan's posts (or at least SJS ACGMs) which I think is good value, the buyout on Campbell isn't bad at all but this save us from having 2.1M and 2.3M in dead cap when we re-sign McD, Bouch and Drai.

I think this does address our weaknesses though no?
We upgrade Drai's wingers and create a very competitive top-9 and good shutdown 4th line, have 2-3 forwards who can fight and some "identity" guys still.
D-Core gets stronger and we find a decent puck moving rangy dman for Nurse, pair a decent stay at home guy with Broberg who knows our system.

Going into TDL 2025 we also have ~2M in cap plus prospects like Akey and XB to move (though I agree this does take up some picks).

Edit: I just noticed you're a Phili fan, wdyt of the Phili deal?

Sharks maybe do it, we just buy him out most likely we have a boat load of cap space and if we can get a first out of it, I say why not

Maybe add a later pick or player as well though

Cost is probably right, gets Seattle some insurance but I believe the common belief is Evans is stepping in to Schultz's shoes which would make Ceci the #7 unless they also move Dumo.

Desharnais is better than Ristolainen

Could maybe do like a 5-6th but it get's tough cause his buyout is really not that bad for EDM either.

First and a 5th I accept 100%

Good players can slip to 25-30oa getting another first is huge for San Jose’s future

Prime example how to tell you don't watch hockey in 5 words, without saying it.

Risto is overpriced yes, but he's also a lot better what some people think.

And for OP, with that retention Flyers most likely want a 1st in return. This quote is from february by Anthony Di Marco:

"If were to retain 25%+ on Risto until '27, I'd expect a 1st RD pick as PHI's price. W/ the cap going up, the contract will age well."

And Friedman said:

As mentioned by
@FriedgeHNIC
in 32T, Ristolainen's play has drawn attention - but the contract does make things complicated.

Speaking with another team, Risto is valued at a ~$3.5M AAV. PHI is willing to retain but it will come at a cost.

So there you have it, 2nd and Tullio ain't enough, would need a better prospect or the 1st.

Would be good with this deal

I think a different prospect could be negotiated but a 1st would need to include something else back as well.

DiMarco is from what I gathered primarily a Flyers writer, I don't know if using him would be the best to judge value on a trade or trade expectation.
However, I agree that the talks would start with a 1st, but eventually fall to a 2nd and mid-prospect.

Risto is a good target cause with the retention he becomes pretty cost effective but any team taking him is taking on the fairly large risk of if he plays a simple shutdown and puck movement game (where he shines) or if he tries to over-exert (where he would likely get benched/boxed).
Throwing a 1st at that and getting a guy for 3 years, even with retention, could be a blunder.

Yes he's indeed Flyers writer, but usually knows Flyers stuff pretty well. And that's why there is also Elliotte Friedman quote to back it up.

Late 1st/2nd + decent prospect shouldn't be bad price as cap is going up if you get him for 3 years with 3M aav. But indeed he should be played as ~20min stay-at-home D + PK. That's where he's improved A LOT with Shaw and Torts. If you try to make him a 2-way puck playing D, he might be just a ticking time bomb.

I haven't watched much of Risto as of recently (past 1-2 years) has he cleaned up his defensive game to a point where he's far better than Ceci and Kulak?

For DiMarco my point more so being that there may be a slight bias in his opinion.
Take a guy like Hayes you traded last year half retained for a 6th, I expect that to be a lot closer to what we can expect this deal to be (getting a little to free cap and room for prospects).
I think 2nd + prospect is his range at 3-3.5M, it's even a pretty decent return for him.

Assumed this is part of Friedman's quote:

Assumed the cost would mean a 2nd-3rd range, most team's aren't gambling their firsts for a multi-year deal and would rather buy a high-end rental at that price.

He's similar to Desh defensive play style with better skating in general and gap control in transition.
Better in O-zone presence too.

Ristolainen is a 3rd pairing defenseman on a non-playoff team. Why would Edmonton target him to play in their top-4?

Hayes case is totally different story. They wanted to get rid of Hayes, Provorov, DeAngelo for example because they wanted to change the team culture. And some could say it worked pretty well this season. Risto ain't problem for Flyers nor is his contract, even though he's somewhat overpriced as mentioned earlier.



That was the Friedman part yes. And one could think it's a good bet to get a guy for 3*3M (what you have proposed), who actually had really good advanced stats this season despite being injured couple times. And played in a non playoff team. But i also understand the concern, how much of this is because Torts' system and how much is because of his gameplay. If you are gonna get that high-end rental every year, it's gonna cost a lot.

But as mentioned, right now he's good player for Flyers (wouldn't have believed this 2 years ago) and his contract ain't a problem. They are not gonna retain for 3 years for low return, if they retain, they will want something better than (presumably) late 2nd in kinda weak draft and "prospect" who's most likely never gonna hit the show. Or I could just be wrong and get disappointed with meh return.

No. Philadelphia has him playing on their 3rd pairing, sheltering him with OTF starts. Based on usage, they don't trust him defensively.

Defensively, yes. I would prefer Desharnais on the roster over Ristolainen too, just because he can be trusted to defend.

Situationally this season he played limited time due to injury and the injection of Drysdale, other years he has been top-4/first pair/#1.

I've seen it a few times on posts in regards to Ceci from you as well but never said, and I mean this with the best intention, TOI more an evaluation on a teams situation rather than a players worth in a league.
Using it to valuate a player directly is extremely misleading, EDM as an example, he plays top 4 minutes (and does fine) because we dont have RHD to replace him.

There are many ways to tell whether a coach trusts a defenseman or not. TOI is one, but also OTF starts and QoC are key indicators too. You can also look at a player's most common partner (Zamula for Ristolainen) to get an idea where he plays. He's a 3rd pairing guy according to Philadelphia's coaching staff, whose opinion I respect greatly.

Also, Ristolainen's time with Drysdale barely overlapped, most of the time Ristolainen was healthy Drysdale wasn't on the team. So asserting Drysdale as the reason Ristolainen was on the 3rd pairing is a false narrative.

As for Ceci, he has played top-4 (as measured by TOI, OTF starts and QoC) for 8 years straight, for 4 different teams and 7 different coaches. I don't consider that to be situational at all.

Yea but you not considering it situational or the situation around it is the issue, the coach gets what he's given and makes due, if you don't have anyone to slot in above him than yea he's top-4.

Ceci is normally top-4 TOI because the competition to take that spot from him lacks:
In Ottawa he slotted above weak competition in that lineup for several years, the biggest competition for that spot was in 18-19 when Demelo came who did actually take some ice time off Ceci.
Otherwise Ottawas best choice was Wideman over the span he was there, who sucks.
Then flipped to Toronto where he was the 2nd pair and was slotted over Holl at the start but actually moved to 3rd line under Holl by the end (switch happened in Dec-Jan) making him a 3rd pairing guy.
Then goes to Pitt where he was 3rd pair beneath Letang (1st) and Marino (2nd).
Then to Edmonton where a rookie Bouchard and defensive liability Barrie were our other RHD were the options, making him the obvious choice to go along with Nurse.

Taking his TOI and just stating "he's top-4 on every team thus is a good top-4 dman" is misleading, it doesn't give a picture at all of the situation.
Once you look into the situation and find out twice on bad defensive teams he lost that top-4 role it paints the actual picture.

I could swap the year for the draft but I assume 2026 is no better for the Flyers as its 3 out, Tullio is like a 13th guy so I don't disagree there. I just don't think a team would move a 1st for Risto at this point.
Also remember you're getting Desh (who in this situation I make the assumption signs with you) to fill in that gap until Bonk comes up (I assume he's 2 years out?).
Idk, it depends on Phili's direction going forward, if they're making another push next year than I assume they just keep Risto given their cap space; but, if they're gunna go into a 2-3 year re-tool (get stuff ready for Mich) than a trade like this for this worth becomes more realistic.

I'd just assume in this case they would want some better prospect, -26 2nd ain't helping that much either.

And I also think with 3-3,5M cap hit Canucks or Leafs (both were rumoured to be interested before his injury) could maybe be paying the late 1st, both are in need of steady RHD. Oilers doesn't really have the suitable assets, except -25 1st. Unless they would be moving Holloway (wouldn't be smart for them), or Akey could be one that interests Flyers, but doubt Oilers are parting ways with him either.

I wasn't taking just TOI, I was also looking at other factors also, which I mentioned.

And if teams continually don't have 2 RHD who can slot ahead of Ceci, maybe you need to rejig your mindset on what a top-4 RHD actually is. The fact is there aren't 64 right handed defensemen in the league that are better than Ceci. That makes him a top-4 defender.

Ceci has mostly kept his head above water playing top-4 too, unlike Ristolainen. You rightly point out that Ristolainen has played top-4 most of his career before this season, but failed to note that he's been overwhelmed on that role his entire career too. Sometimes you just have to look at results - the players eventually tell you what they are.

Ceci can (and does) play top-4, Ristolainen can't (and doesn't). It's that simple.

Yea those are pretty high asks for him, at least from EDM's POV.

Can imagine there's a market for him, guess we'll see where he lands and what for.