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6 Newhooks is better than 3 Laines

Créé par: jonh514
Équipe: 2024-25 Canadiens de Montréal
Date de création initiale: 27 mars 2024
Publié: 27 mars 2024
Mode - plafond salarial: Basique
Description
Acquiring top 3 forward talent is hard. You need to pay a ridiculous price either in trade or in free agency. The only logical way to get it is to draft for it and/or develop it.

That being said: HuGo has done a great job getting Dach & Newhook and signing them to team friendly "prove it" deals. Great middle 6 players who can play up and down the lineup. I, like a lot of Habs fans, want us to target those types of players this offseason.

Here's some ideas I'd try.

Notes:

1) Fowler starts in Laval next season. Dobes plays backup in Montreal. I know Dobes AHL GAA is not good enough at first glance, but if you look at the 2nd half of the season, it's really good. He just got lit up in the first 20 games while he was adapting. It's understandable on a team that had 70% new players and we should look at his last 20 games instead.

2) Buried RHP. If we lose him, so be it. He has not been good this season.

3) Turcotte, Dvorak, Anderson, Armia, and Gallagher duke it out not to be the 13th man. Unless the team goes on a run, Dvorak & Armia are gone at the TDL anyway, so there will be room for everyone, including call-ups. Injuries will also play a factor.
Signatures de joueurs autonomes
RFAANSCAP HIT
22 250 000 $
21 250 000 $
33 500 000 $
Transactions
1.
MTL
  1. Turcotte, Alex [Droits de RFA]
Détails additionnels:
Former top 5 pick with disappointing production so far. At age 23-24 it's unlikely he breaks out and becomes the player he was drafted to be, but he can still fill a 3rd line role well, and maybe play in the 2nd line in a pinch.
LAK
  1. Primeau, Cayden
Détails additionnels:
LA needs a couple of Goalies and does not have a ton of cap room. Primeau should be one of them. He has been very good in limited usage this year and he only costs 1M next season before being RFA.
2.
MTL
  1. Krebs, Peyton [Droits de RFA]
Détails additionnels:
Formerly expected to be an offensive force, Krebs has become more of a defensive player in Buffalo. I believe the offense is still there and he would get a better opportunity in Montreal.
BUF
  1. Barron, Justin [Droits de RFA]
Détails additionnels:
Crowded blue line, even on the right side, and Reinbacher and Mailloux have made him expendable. He'll get a better shot in Buffalo who will have a spot for him on their bottom pair next season.
3.
MTL
  1. Lundell, Anton [Droits de RFA]
Détails additionnels:
Lundell is this year's Dach/Newhook
FLA
  1. Evans, Jake
  2. Xhekaj, Arber [Droits de RFA]
Détails additionnels:
I think most Panther fans know that if they want to hold Bennet & Reinhart, they may need to sacrifice Lundell as a trade chip. First off on Salary, and second in order to restock the Blueline.

The issue is that most fans are offering picks, and to a team like the Panthers, picks are not very useful. Their window is now. They need difference makers right now. That's why this needs to be a good old fashioned "hockey trade". Value today with upside for value today with upside.

Evans is there to fill the gap left by Lundell. He's a Solid bottom six center with exceptional faceoff and defensive metrics. Has a little offense too.

The real gem here is Xhekaj. Hulking, bruising, scoring defenseman with tons of upside. Exactly the kind of player you want to ice in the playoffs.
Transactions impliquant une retenue de salaire
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2024
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TAILLE DE LA FORMATIONPLAFOND SALARIALCAP HITEXCÉDENTS Info-bulleBONISESPACE SOUS LE PLAFOND SALARIAL
2387 500 000 $73 948 750 $1 022 500 $3 977 500 $13 551 250 $
Ailier gaucheCentreAilier droit
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7 850 000 $7 850 000 $
AG, AD
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7 875 000 $7 875 000 $
C
UFA - 6
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950 000 $950 000 $ (Bonis de performance3 500 000 $$4M)
AD, AG
RFA - 1
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M-NTC, NMC
UFA - 3
Défenseur gaucherDéfenseur droitierGardien de but
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4 875 000 $4 875 000 $
DG
M-NTC
UFA - 2
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863 333 $863 333 $ (Bonis de performance420 000 $$420K)
DG/DD
RFA - 1
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3 150 000 $3 150 000 $
G
UFA - 3
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1 400 000 $1 400 000 $
DG/DD
RFA - 1
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3 500 000 $3 500 000 $
DD
UFA - 1
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925 000 $925 000 $
G
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867 500 $867 500 $ (Bonis de performance57 500 $$58K)
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875 000 $875 000 $
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Laissés de côtéListe des blessés (IR)Liste des blessés à long terme (LTIR)
1 250 000 $1 250 000 $
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10 500 000 $10 500 000 $
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NMC
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812 500 $812 500 $
AG, AD
UFA - 1
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766 667 $766 667 $
DD
UFA - 1

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27 mars à 11 h 27
#26
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Quoting: tryger
I think you are looking at it from the wrong side, LA just made Korpisalo, Rittich and Talbot earn paydays.

LAs defense makes goalies jobs easier and bolsters their value. If you are Matt Murray, Ilya Samsanov, Chris Dreidger, Casey Desmith you are lining up for the opportunity (even at league minimums) to earn back a starter role and bolster their stats through a one-year budget deal.

Also, solid goalies who just want a path to a starter role and playoff games could sign for $2-3M like: Brossoit, Stolarz, Nedeljkovic, Fluery, etc.

LAs goaltending tandem is one of the best in the league at one of the lowest cap hits, everyone seems to think LAs goaltending is awful, but statistically Talbot has been one of the best goaltenders in the league, and the best over the last 10 games.


Oh i was just wondering who you think they would target in free agency, im not saying it cant be done.
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27 mars à 11 h 38
#27
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Quoting: Chapee44
Buffalo should make that deal. Love my feisty little psychopath in Krebs but Barron is solid and I also really like him.


We won’t though
We don’t have a spot to play Barron in
He’s not a top4 guy, and @john514 is wrong, we can’t play him at RD3 bc Clifton is signed for 2 more years & occupies that slot

The trade just doesn’t make sense for us
Especially now with Krebs getting his shot on the 3rd line in a more offensive role
He’s also not a guy we are looking to trade

Just don’t see any way something like this happens
If we trade for a RD- and that’s a big IF- then it’s gotta be a top4 guy to play w Power & replace Jokiharju
But we could just sign Jokiharju & go forward with the defense “as is” too

*we don’t actually “need” a RD anymore
At this point, even bringing one in just doesn’t make sense unless it’s an upgrade over Jokiharju
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27 mars à 12 h 1
#28
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Quoting: Shanesaw9
I think Xhekaj is a top 4 defenseman (2nd Pair), but he will be playing 3rd Pair on MTL and that's great. So you're trading a top 4 D here with Evans for a top 6 C which is really a fair trade, but in my opinion Xhekaj's skillset is just too rare to trade and that's why I would keep him.


Understood. I just think most of the ice time in a few years will be going to the pair of:

Hutson Reinbacher
Guhle Mailloux

or maybe

Guhle Reinbacher
Hutson Mailloux

Either way I don't think Arber gets enough ice time to make the sort of impact he's been making the past 5 games.
27 mars à 12 h 3
#29
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Quoting: AlakHul
just OS or trade them assets they could use at next tdl, maybe their own pick and our 2nd with Engstrom, so 2 picks between 20-40 and another top 4 Dman that'll be on a elc.


OS is never gonna happen.

Teams do not value Engstrom, an untested/unsigned european defender, as a potential top 4. If we could wait 2 years to make a deal, then your trade idea could make sense, but we need to improve our forward group right away, because this team needs to contend for the playoffs next year.
27 mars à 12 h 6
#30
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Quoting: squashmaple
I've never seen a Montreal post that's so fair and balanced for what the other teams might want or need. Well done.


Thanks sir, I am blushing!
27 mars à 12 h 10
#31
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Quoting: Matt1567
not sure about dobes as the backup but if he's not ready i'm sure they could find someone to be the backup
really like the Krebs - Barron swap, personally I've started to lose hope in Barron being anything more than a Tony DeAngelo type player (PP specialist that you can't fully trust in his own zone)
I really like the idea of Lundell too, love Xhekaj and it would suck to see him go but as you've been saying, he's likely our 5/6 dman in a few years, and Lundell could be a Danault type player with more offensive upside if it works out, and that's worth moving Arber for


While I have not given up on Barron, I recognize that it's Mailloux's turn to get a shot and it feels wrong to make him wait in Laval because Barron's contract dictates he must play in Montreal next season. If Barron could remain on a 2-way deal for 1 more season, I would keep him. I believe he's gonna be a really good player for a lot of years. Anyone Crosby praises generally deserves it. The CBA being what it is, it's time to move on from Barron rather than make him the 7th D by default.
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27 mars à 12 h 15
#32
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Quoting: AntiAnalytics
We won’t though
We don’t have a spot to play Barron in
He’s not a top4 guy, and john514 is wrong, we can’t play him at RD3 bc Clifton is signed for 2 more years & occupies that slot

The trade just doesn’t make sense for us
Especially now with Krebs getting his shot on the 3rd line in a more offensive role
He’s also not a guy we are looking to trade

Just don’t see any way something like this happens
If we trade for a RD- and that’s a big IF- then it’s gotta be a top4 guy to play w Power & replace Jokiharju
But we could just sign Jokiharju & go forward with the defense “as is” too

*we don’t actually “need” a RD anymore
At this point, even bringing one in just doesn’t make sense unless it’s an upgrade over Jokiharju


I think you would know better than us AA. I guess I just question why a team which misses the playoffs year after year would not want to try and make some changes. Don't get me wrong, the Habs have similar challenges, I'm not crapping on Buffalo, but playing the same D-core and expecting them to be better because they are a few months older seems a bit too optimistic to me.

I totally get that Barron doesn't solve any problem, but I guess I am saying the mix is off and the team feels like they are contributing less than the sum of their parts.

This is said with all due respect, I am not trying to pick a fight.
27 mars à 12 h 28
#33
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Quoting: jonh514
I think you would know better than us AA. I guess I just question why a team which misses the playoffs year after year would not want to try and make some changes. Don't get me wrong, the Habs have similar challenges, I'm not crapping on Buffalo, but playing the same D-core and expecting them to be better because they are a few months older seems a bit too optimistic to me.

I totally get that Barron doesn't solve any problem, but I guess I am saying the mix is off and the team feels like they are contributing less than the sum of their parts.

This is said with all due respect, I am not trying to pick a fight.


Except the defense won’t be the same- not at all really
Byram will be here for the full year, and he & Dahlin together on our top pair has been DOMINANT

This allows Samuelsson to slide down to pair3 and improve that pairing (with Clifton)

And pair2 of Power & Jokiharju is the only real question mark here, as it’s uncertain if we want to spend the $$$ to keep Jokiharju, or if we wanna spend even more on a UFA upgrade at that spot


Either way, our defense next year will look quite a bit different than it did last season

Also, we’ve stabilized our goaltending with UPL taking such a big leap forward- and that obviously helps
Plus, there’s holes at forward we have to figure out
3C, top9 winger, checking line (the whole thing, lol)

So there’s still room for us to make some changes here
We just got started on them already at the deadline by trading for Byram & shipping out our Captain (Okposo)


No offense, but i went into detail here bc u seemed to have a rather pedestrian view of us.
Back to your trade though…. we aren’t gonna want Barron.
He isn’t a top4 guy, and our RD3 is already set with Clifton for the next 2 years.
Plus, (again), we aren’t looking to move Krebs.
Trading Mittelstadt has actually freed up room for him to get a shot at a more offensive role in our top9, so we’ll see how that goes.

I get how the trade makes sense to you,
but with a little more thought i hope u can see why we clearly wouldn’t make this deal
27 mars à 12 h 29
#34
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Lol I just made a thread trading for Lundell (didn't see this one beforehand).

I suggested Barron being the target for FLA, with additional assets added as well (I guess Evans could be a good candidate, as you said, FLA are in win now). FLA might have more interest in Barron's higher ceiling then Xhekaj's higher floor. Not to mention FLA are thin at RD, especially if Montour leaves for free agency.


I've said this many times before. I think Habs management have fully committed to Xhekaj and have clearly put him in the "not for sale" category. and I doubt Lundell would change that stance (even though I think Lundell is more valuable than Xhekaj). I believe Barron is also "not for sale", but for what he provides, not to the same extent of "not for sale"ness as Xhekaj lol
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27 mars à 12 h 47
#35
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Quoting: AntiAnalytics
Except the defense won’t be the same- not at all really
Byram will be here for the full year, and he & Dahlin together on our top pair has been DOMINANT

This allows Samuelsson to slide down to pair3 and improve that pairing (with Clifton)

And pair2 of Power & Jokiharju is the only real question mark here, as it’s uncertain if we want to spend the $$$ to keep Jokiharju, or if we wanna spend even more on a UFA upgrade at that spot


Either way, our defense next year will look quite a bit different than it did last season

Also, we’ve stabilized our goaltending with UPL taking such a big leap forward- and that obviously helps
Plus, there’s holes at forward we have to figure out
3C, top9 winger, checking line (the whole thing, lol)

So there’s still room for us to make some changes here
We just got started on them already at the deadline by trading for Byram & shipping out our Captain (Okposo)


No offense, but i went into detail here bc u seemed to have a rather pedestrian view of us.
Back to your trade though…. we aren’t gonna want Barron.
He isn’t a top4 guy, and our RD3 is already set with Clifton for the next 2 years.
Plus, (again), we aren’t looking to move Krebs.
Trading Mittelstadt has actually freed up room for him to get a shot at a more offensive role in our top9, so we’ll see how that goes.

I get how the trade makes sense to you,
but with a little more thought i hope u can see why we clearly wouldn’t make this deal


As strange as it is to say because it was the biggest trade of the TDL... I actually forgot that you got Byram... makes a lot of sense now.
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27 mars à 12 h 50
#36
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Quoting: Blazingbat11
Lol I just made a thread trading for Lundell (didn't see this one beforehand).

I suggested Barron being the target for FLA, with additional assets added as well (I guess Evans could be a good candidate, as you said, FLA are in win now). FLA might have more interest in Barron's higher ceiling then Xhekaj's higher floor. Not to mention FLA are thin at RD, especially if Montour leaves for free agency.


I've said this many times before. I think Habs management have fully committed to Xhekaj and have clearly put him in the "not for sale" category. and I doubt Lundell would change that stance (even though I think Lundell is more valuable than Xhekaj). I believe Barron is also "not for sale", but for what he provides, not to the same extent of "not for sale"ness as Xhekaj lol


Thanks for sharing your position.

I have been asking a lot of Habs fans who say that to do a small exercise. Can you please project for me what your 3 D-pairs are in 2025-26? Is Xhekaj on the 3rd pair? If yes, can you please tell me why a 3rd pair defender based on our depth cannot be traded to shore up the top 6?
27 mars à 13 h 34
#37
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Quoting: jonh514
Thanks for sharing your position.

I have been asking a lot of Habs fans who say that to do a small exercise. Can you please project for me what your 3 D-pairs are in 2025-26? Is Xhekaj on the 3rd pair? If yes, can you please tell me why a 3rd pair defender based on our depth cannot be traded to shore up the top 6?


That's an overly simplistic way of thinking. Just because Xhekaj is projected to play behind Guhle and Hutson at LD in 2025-26, does not equate that he'd be a 3rd pairing defensemen in terms of value by then. Ideally if you have "perfect" defense squad, you could divide the playing time almost equally 20minutes a game per defense pairing.
If Xhekaj develops how Habs management want him to, he could still log close to 20 minutes a game and put up 15g 15a 30pts seasons, and absolutely destroy opponents physically, all while only being on the "3rd pair" on paper...

That being said, if MTL projects Lundell to be a center worth more than what they project Xhekaj to be, then sure. You can definitely make an argument to do that trade. imo I don't see that being the case. Listening to the Basu and Godin podcast, Arpon suggested after a conversation with Hughes, that he feels Habs management have put Xhekaj in the same "not for sale" category as Guhle. I'm paraphrasing, but that's high praise! Many might disagree, but I think it's true since Eric Engels essentially said the same thing a few months ago when Xhekaj was playing well in Laval.


I'd like Lundell (which is why I traded for him in my thread too!), but I believe if FLA asks for Xhekaj in return, MTL turns it down for better or worse.
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27 mars à 13 h 52
#38
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Modifié 27 mars à 13 h 59
Quoting: jonh514
Understood. I just think most of the ice time in a few years will be going to the pair of:

Hutson Reinbacher
Guhle Mailloux

or maybe

Guhle Reinbacher
Hutson Mailloux

Either way I don't think Arber gets enough ice time to make the sort of impact he's been making the past 5 games.


He's only averaged 16:30 over the last 5 games though, so if you think he is making a good impact currently with that amount of ice time then I think you just contradicted yourself.

Edit: Something I don't love about MTL's defensive deployment is that Matheson has the 4th hardest matchups in the NHL and Guhle has the 7th hardest matchups. At times, I think they are overwhelmed, having a good 3rd pair (like Xhekaj - Savard right now for example) should help lessen the workload during those tough stretches throughout a season.
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