Hawks decline. Skinner likely doesn't waive for Chicago and Pegula likely won't retain. But even if both happened, that offer doesn't get it done. Rosen is a good prospect, but not enough to take on 3 more years of that contract.

If Skinner was signed for 1 more season Hawks do this. Maybe with 2 more they still do, but 3 more seasons? I don't think they do it

Skinner at 6.4 is probably pretty close to his market value, top 10 in 5v5 goals over the past 3 seasons. I could also see him waiving to get a fresh start in a cool city with a chance to play with Bedard + Celebrini. Its also not like the Hawks are going to have a cap crunch anytime soon, I think they'll try to add by overpaying guys in free agency, but if they had the chance to add picks/prospect while also getting a roster player why wouldn't they?

Skinner at 6.4 is probably pretty close to his market value, top 10 in 5v5 goals over the past 3 seasons. I could also see him waiving to get a fresh start in a cool city with a chance to play with Bedard + Celebrini. Its also not like the Hawks are going to have a cap crunch anytime soon, I think they'll try to add by overpaying guys in free agency, but if they had the chance to add picks/prospect while also getting a roster player why wouldn't they?

Those two picks are insignificant to the deal. Hawks have plenty of mid round picks in the bank already. So it's really Rosen to take 3 years of Skinner at $6.4m. Like I said, Rosen is a nice prospect, but he's essentially the same style and size as Nazar and Moore, so he's redundant in the Hawks scheme of things. Hawks need some bigger body guys with top 6 potential in the prospect pool. And that 3rd year on Skinner's deal is a negative for the Hawks too. Hawks want maximum cap flexibility when Bedard signs his 2nd contract to add a big time free agent or two.

I agree with the premise of your argument. Skinner is definitely one-dimensional and likely to regress, but with the way he scores goals, not being so reliant on speed, I don't think he'll fall off a cliff. The hawks don't have any true goal scorers other than Bedard on the team and if he's an asset for 2 more years at 6.4 then the reason they recieve a solid prospect and 2 picks is because he could regress heavily that final season. The idea that 3rd round picks are insignificant because you already have many mid-round picks doesnt make any sense. Also calling a prospect "redundant" because you have other prospects with similar skill-sets is a poor way to build a team/prospect pool. Theres no guarantee any of those players pan out and they all have the potential to develop differently

Hawks decline...but not enough to take on 3 more years of that contract.

If Skinner was signed for 1 more season Hawks do this. Maybe with 2 more they still do, but 3 more seasons? I don't think they do it

The third year remaining on Skinner’s contract is the real killer for me...

Great, because the Sabres should not be trading him at all.
He is playing well for us & we have plenty of Cap room
So there’s really no reason we’d wanna move him!

Cozens42
All of these Skinner trades in which either the Sabres include assets (as this one) or they trade him for less than future considerations have no basis in reality.
Hertl was traded for a prospect chosen 32nd in last year's draft and this years first round pick which will be also very late.
Tomas has three additional years remaining on his contract than Jeff.
Over the last three years Tomas has played in 209 games scoring 65 goals with 162 pts while accumulating a -71 rating.
While, Jeff is 18 months older but over the past three years has played in 216 games with 88 goals and 185 pts while accumulating a ZERO +/-.
Other than the length of contracts the contracts are essentially identical.
It is unlikely Jeff will be moved due his NTC, but he is far from a cap dump and his return if he accepted a trade should be more commensurate with the Hertl return than this trade.

Well, that is my penny and half for the week.
Fire away, hit me with your best shot!