idk much about Girard but assuming he's a good 2nd pair guy that has some quality defensive agility this is a good deal, mind you I'm a bit lower on Niemila compared to most leaf fans. Not sure Tre would do this since he likes big Defenseman

If the Leafs end up signing Nylander, they most likely won't be able to afford Girard even though, he's just making 5M. They could make other concessions upfront like not re-signing Bertuzzi and/or Domi, but I think they would rather save on defense where they could in the following two years (Niemela's ELC would help a lot if he makes the team next year). Treliving in general likes having a big defense, and he is looking to add someone with size to the Leafs blue line. I would also add, that they have Timmins who looks like he could maybe play in the top 4 in terms of offensive puck-moving defensemen.

If/when COL needs to move Girard, I think they could get a young NHL roster player who's at least a bit more proven than Niemela. Maybe even a 3-way trade that sends a guy like Adam Boqvist to COL, with Girard going to a 3rd team.

Solid team , hopefully Landeskog can come back strong. I am also interested in seeing what Kovalenko can do in the NHL. RJo willbe another year older , might see him switch lines with Ross or a 2C brought in and Ross back to the wing. One key here is Byram staying healthy so they can feel confident moving Girard.

I'm a fan of neither team but I'd say the comparison to Hronek falls short in two key ways:

1.) Hronek is a skilled RD which was a major need for the acquiring team (TOR won't have the same kind of press for smaller, skilled D)
2.) Hronek was in the midst of his career-best season in which he was on pace for ~50pts and was handily outperforming his teammates while playing primarily with Maatta and Chiarot

Girard doesn't fulfill either criteria and has a worse of a track record of being exploited for his size & defensive shortcomings than Hronek does. As such, I'd say your expectations on the return are a tad high- even if the 1st would be a later pick. Personally, I think FLA would make a lot of sense as a landing spot for Girard despite their lack of picks.

Hronek may not have been the best stylistic comparison. But Girard easily gets a return like this. His defensive metrics are great, he's more than just a small offensive Dman.

By the metrics I values, he seems to struggle quite uniformly on defense and my viewings of him generally support that. I won't try to impose that belief on you but, if you're willing to share, I'm curious what defensive metrics you're referring to?

Counterpoint there being Niemela and Girard are approx the same size (1" difference one way but 10 lbs the other). Toronto has Klingberg and Brodie's cap hits clearing out at end of year, so money should work unless Tree is going to completely front load on offense and scrimp on defense and goaltending. Given his love of a strong defense, I don't think it's that likely that he cheaps out there.

While Girard is a offense first Damn, he is one of the better ones on defense, really taking on a more all around title than just pure offense.

Will need to ponder this one but I like the potential

Girard has always been an interesting Dman

Last 2 years were not kind to him stats wise but this year he seems to be rebounding

Now I dont know what the plan for the Dcore is next year but he may be a target

Girard is around the same height as Niemela but they aren't adding Niemela, he's already in the system. Just meant that if he's going to add a top-4D it's probably someone with size.

I do think they will be cheap on defense, because Klingber's money will basically just go to Nylander (if signed), Bertuzzi probably gets something similar or more, same with Domi. If they don't re-up one (or more of those guys there could be money to go around). The other thing is if they don't re-sign Samsonov they will get some money. Brodie coming off the books isn't really extra money imo, since they will at least need to pay a replacement for Brodie assuming they don't re-up him for around 3M. If Brodie has fallen off (starting to really seem like it) or just is not re-signed, then they need to be spending to replace their top defensive defenseman if someone is available (like Pesce) in FA. If not they probably get someone who is physical like Zadorov.

Niemela may be around the same size as Girard but let's not pretend like he's at Girard's level, at least not yet. Girard is a proven commodity, Niemela has a lot to prove to get to Girard's level as a top 4 Dman.

Yeah, for sure just meant that Girard is probably not the type of defender that Treliving would be looking for, I guess it really depends on if he adds someone or not in the current season, but physicality (could be a 5-7th D) is something he's looking to add - he wanted Desharnais from EDM, and size in general is something he likes on the blue line. I don't think that automatically disqualifies Girard but because the Leafs already have a smallish defense (Rielly 6'1, McCabe 6'1, Liljegren 6'0, Timmins 6'2 -- Brodie 6'1, Klingberg 6'3, Giordano 6'1), I don't think Girard would be a trade target. GiggywithGibby made the counterpoint that Niemela is basically the same size as Girard, so I was just pointing out that Treliving wasn't acquiring Niemela, wasn't saying that he would have the same impact. Also, if Brodie is gone next year there would be a need for a DFD or a TWD that is more defensive than offensive.

For the same reasons you outlined that would imply that Treliving would be very likely to trade Niemela (regardless of whether it is for Girard or not). What do you think Niemela's value would be in isolation right now?

i gotta think leaf’s say no but it’s a very interesting offer

Maybe, but I wasn't arguing that he wouldn't be available. Although, if Niemela's game translates to the NH-level, they would be getting a strong defensive RHD, that can also join the rush as you mentioned, which is kind of what they need to replace Brodie (in the next couple of years at least). He might not be ready yet for next year, but he should still be cheap for the 2025-26 season, which would help them with the cap crunch that they would be facing if they re-sign Nylander.



Not sure really, I think he's probably considered a B+ prospect so at least a 2nd (maybe a 2nd+, but less than a 1st). I think the value of the trade is pretty fair.