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OTT CHI match up for anther cap consideration trade

Créé par: Kyle_Davidson
Équipe: 2023-24 Blackhawks de Chicago
Date de création initiale: 17 août 2023
Publié: 18 août 2023
Mode - plafond salarial: Basique
Description
I saw that OTT may want to move out Joseph for cap flexibility on Twitter. When looking at the contract I thought something like “Well sure it doesn’t seem great but it’s also not that detrimental …” but then I saw the term of three years and understood why they might want to move it.

Moving term, especially in a cap dump trade, has proven to be difficult for a lot of teams. Let me know what you guys are thinking.
Transactions
CHI
  1. Joseph, Mathieu
  2. Choix de 2e ronde en 2024 (OTT)
  3. Choix de 2e ronde en 2025 (OTT)
OTT
  1. Choix de 3e ronde en 2024 (OTT)
  2. Choix de 3e ronde en 2024 (CHI)
Détails additionnels:
OTT receives the lowest 3rd round pick chicago has at the time of the 24 AND 25 drafts.
Rachats de contrats
Transactions impliquant une retenue de salaire
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950 000 $950 000 $ (0 $$00 $$0)
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18 août 2023 à 0 h 11
#1
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Sens fans will say it's too much. But Chicago is only taking Joseph if it's worth their while. Look how Yzerman grinded Dorion in the Cat trade.
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18 août 2023 à 0 h 16
#2
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Might be a fair trade. But I wouldn't do it as a Hawk. Three years of 2.75m cap might look OK now, but if Hawks want to splash in the UFA market in the next two season, keep as much cap as you can.
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18 août 2023 à 0 h 38
#3
Chicago
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Quoting: palhal
Might be a fair trade. But I wouldn't do it as a Hawk. Three years of 2.75m cap might look OK now, but if Hawks want to splash in the UFA market in the next two season, keep as much cap as you can.


Fair point, although I would be open to it. Hawks have a lot of 1-2 year contracts that can be moved in the coming deadlines. This team is going to be grinding to get to the cap floor every season.
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18 août 2023 à 6 h 9
#4
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I’d probably do that. Don’t mind moving down a round in both drafts to move out Joseph’s cap. And Joseph’s contract in actually quite easy to buyout, think it’s like 750k for 2 years then 1.1m 2 years after that if they buyout next year. Not too much and doesn’t really hamper you. And best case, he’s productive and finds a role on the 3rd line where under 3m is perfectly fine. Think it helps both teams out really although Chicago (rightfully) gets the better end of the deal.
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18 août 2023 à 8 h 14
#5
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Can't see the Hawks taking 3 years of Joseph for a one round move up in two drafts. Especially this season when their forward group is already packed. Seems like a pretty light return for the Hawks. The trade that's been most agreeable to both sides is Joseph and a 2nd for Katchouk and signing rights to Kayamov.
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18 août 2023 à 8 h 35
#6
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The hardest part about taking on Mathieu is that Pius Suter just signed for $1.6M & OTT needs to make a move. The Hawks need to play hardball. OTT is more likely to trade Kubalik. I like @Hawksguy81 proposal. A swap of 4th liners and a 2nd outright. If you're going to do a swap it'll need to be like Mrazek. A 1st/2nd swap in my mind.
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18 août 2023 à 8 h 47
#7
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Honestly, this proposal in my opinion is too light for the Hawks. they are taking on a $2.95m cap hit for three season and paying out $9.3m in actual $$$. Look at Davidson’s past cap dump deals:

Dickinson brought a 2nd for taking on $2.65m for two seasons and they dumped Stillman in the deal.
Zaitsev brought a 2nd and 4th for taking on $4.5m for 1 1/4 seasons.
Bailey brought a 2nd for one season with only $3.5m owed, $3.8m buy-out over two years.

Then there was the Mrazek deal that saw the Hawks flip a 2nd for a 1st, moving up 13 spots in the draft. This trade was a little different because the Hawks actually NEEDED a veteran goalie at the time.

In my opinion, in order for the Hawks to take Joseph it would either involve a 1st outright going to Chicago or two 2nds with potentially a 3rd and someone like Blackwell heading back to Ottawa.
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18 août 2023 à 10 h 17
#8
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Quoting: SharkTank
Sens fans will say it's too much. But Chicago is only taking Joseph if it's worth their while. Look how Yzerman grinded Dorion in the Cat trade.

It's not dramatic as OTT would receive the lowest 3rd round picks in each draft and if the Sens draft late in the 2nd, not a huge difference.

And while I think Dorion is one of the worst GMs in history and put himself in a bad position with DeBrincat, the only difference in the return resides in the first round pick quality. That 2024 1st round pick (DET) could land about anywhere but there's a good possibility that both Detroit and Boston miss the playoffs. The Sens 2022 1st round pick ended up 7th OA but it was not the greatest draft so relative cost here

As for the rest of the trades :

Dominik Kubalik + Donovan Sebrango + 2024 4th round pick (DET) > 2022 2nd round pick + 2024 3rd round pick (OTT)

Quoting: Mike7856
I’d probably do that. Don’t mind moving down a round in both drafts to move out Joseph’s cap. And Joseph’s contract in actually quite easy to buyout, think it’s like 750k for 2 years then 1.1m 2 years after that if they buyout next year. Not too much and doesn’t really hamper you. And best case, he’s productive and finds a role on the 3rd line where under 3m is perfectly fine. Think it helps both teams out really although Chicago (rightfully) gets the better end of the deal.

Don't think it'd come down to Joseph being buy out worthy. Look at his 2021-22 season, 30 ES + PK pts in 69 games, while being a good defensive forward and PK specialist (always among the top PK metrics among NHL forwards)

He's still young, a top skater with good defensive awareness and a decent enough skillset to not decline at 26 y/o

Quoting: palhal
Might be a fair trade. But I wouldn't do it as a Hawk. Three years of 2.75m cap might look OK now, but if Hawks want to splash in the UFA market in the next two season, keep as much cap as you can.

Rectification, it's 3 years x 2.95 AAV

Quoting: Snowhawk18
In my opinion, in order for the Hawks to take Joseph it would either involve a 1st outright going to Chicago or two 2nds with potentially a 3rd and someone like Blackwell heading back to Ottawa.

A 1st to "dump" Joseph lol... It will NEVER happen, even two 2nds.

Did you just say 2nd + 2nd + 3rd + Joseph for Blackwell? Help

Ottawa traded Nick Paul for Joseph and a 4th a year ago, they were quite high on Joseph and know his value. He COULD be a cap CASUALTY for them this off-season because Dorion always put himself in bad positions but no longer a problem as soon as next off-season (cap rises, Sens gain space from dead cap money, Tarasenko and Kubalik are both UFAs). If he just bounces back to his 2021-22 level, it's actually a good value contract.

The no brainer move is to trade Kubalik and his 1 years 2.5 AAV for a pick. It would already be very hard to give Kubalik some PP time and Joseph has actually a better scoring rate at ES than Kubalik over the last 2 seasons...
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18 août 2023 à 11 h 1
#9
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Quoting: Xspyrit
It's not dramatic as OTT would receive the lowest 3rd round picks in each draft and if the Sens draft late in the 2nd, not a huge difference.

And while I think Dorion is one of the worst GMs in history and put himself in a bad position with DeBrincat, the only difference in the return resides in the first round pick quality. That 2024 1st round pick (DET) could land about anywhere but there's a good possibility that both Detroit and Boston miss the playoffs. The Sens 2022 1st round pick ended up 7th OA but it was not the greatest draft so relative cost here

As for the rest of the trades :

Dominik Kubalik + Donovan Sebrango + 2024 4th round pick (DET) > 2022 2nd round pick + 2024 3rd round pick (OTT)


Don't think it'd come down to Joseph being buy out worthy. Look at his 2021-22 season, 30 ES + PK pts in 69 games, while being a good defensive forward and PK specialist (always among the top PK metrics among NHL forwards)

He's still young, a top skater with good defensive awareness and a decent enough skillset to not decline at 26 y/o


Rectification, it's 3 years x 2.95 AAV


A 1st to "dump" Joseph lol... It will NEVER happen, even two 2nds.

Did you just say 2nd + 2nd + 3rd + Joseph for Blackwell? Help

Ottawa traded Nick Paul for Joseph and a 4th a year ago, they were quite high on Joseph and know his value. He COULD be a cap CASUALTY for them this off-season because Dorion always put himself in bad positions but no longer a problem as soon as next off-season (cap rises, Sens gain space from dead cap money, Tarasenko and Kubalik are both UFAs). If he just bounces back to his 2021-22 level, it's actually a good value contract.

The no brainer move is to trade Kubalik and his 1 years 2.5 AAV for a pick. It would already be very hard to give Kubalik some PP time and Joseph has actually a better scoring rate at ES than Kubalik over the last 2 seasons...


Homer take
18 août 2023 à 11 h 52
#10
Snowhawk
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Quoting: Xspyrit
It's not dramatic as OTT would receive the lowest 3rd round picks in each draft and if the Sens draft late in the 2nd, not a huge difference.

And while I think Dorion is one of the worst GMs in history and put himself in a bad position with DeBrincat, the only difference in the return resides in the first round pick quality. That 2024 1st round pick (DET) could land about anywhere but there's a good possibility that both Detroit and Boston miss the playoffs. The Sens 2022 1st round pick ended up 7th OA but it was not the greatest draft so relative cost here

As for the rest of the trades :

Dominik Kubalik + Donovan Sebrango + 2024 4th round pick (DET) > 2022 2nd round pick + 2024 3rd round pick (OTT)


Don't think it'd come down to Joseph being buy out worthy. Look at his 2021-22 season, 30 ES + PK pts in 69 games, while being a good defensive forward and PK specialist (always among the top PK metrics among NHL forwards)

He's still young, a top skater with good defensive awareness and a decent enough skillset to not decline at 26 y/o


Rectification, it's 3 years x 2.95 AAV


A 1st to "dump" Joseph lol... It will NEVER happen, even two 2nds.

Did you just say 2nd + 2nd + 3rd + Joseph for Blackwell? Help

Ottawa traded Nick Paul for Joseph and a 4th a year ago, they were quite high on Joseph and know his value. He COULD be a cap CASUALTY for them this off-season because Dorion always put himself in bad positions but no longer a problem as soon as next off-season (cap rises, Sens gain space from dead cap money, Tarasenko and Kubalik are both UFAs). If he just bounces back to his 2021-22 level, it's actually a good value contract.

The no brainer move is to trade Kubalik and his 1 years 2.5 AAV for a pick. It would already be very hard to give Kubalik some PP time and Joseph has actually a better scoring rate at ES than Kubalik over the last 2 seasons...


No, I said Joseph and two 2nds for Blackwell and a 3rd.
18 août 2023 à 13 h 41
#11
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Quoting: SharkTank
Homer take

Tell me you're a bit clueless without telling me lol

I mean... do you realize that pretty much everything I have said was FACTUAL?

And since you are the reference in this matter, what was homer-ish in what was said exactly?

Quoting: Snowhawk18
No, I said Joseph and two 2nds for Blackwell and a 3rd.

ok but Blackwell is a major downgrade on Joseph. So the Sens to save 1.75 AAV while getting worse and leaving a gigantic hole on the PK would spend two 2nd round picks? Zaitsev cost a 2nd and a 4th, close to a 6 M$ cap dump
18 août 2023 à 13 h 43
#12
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Quoting: Xspyrit
Tell me you're a bit clueless without telling me lol

I mean... do you realize that pretty much everything I have said was FACTUAL?

And since you are the reference in this matter, what was homer-ish in what was said exactly?


ok but Blackwell is a major downgrade on Joseph. So the Sens to save 1.75 AAV while getting worse and leaving a gigantic hole on the PK would spend two 2nd round picks? Zaitsev cost a 2nd and a 4th, close to a 6 M$ cap dump


Take the L guy. You're just embarrassing yourself at this point. 😬
18 août 2023 à 14 h 0
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Quoting: Xspyrit


ok but Blackwell is a major downgrade on Joseph. So the Sens to save 1.75 AAV while getting worse and leaving a gigantic hole on the PK would spend two 2nd round picks? Zaitsev cost a 2nd and a 4th, close to a 6 M$ cap dump


What exactly is your point? Zaitsev @ 6 < Joseph at 7.65 (or net after Blackwell) and 8.1 in real dollars and the 2nd is likely worse than the one the Hawks ended up with in the Zaitsev deal and the 2nd offset by a 3rd is in the zip code of a 4th. There is also absolutely nothing stopping the Sens from waiving Blackwell and playing him in the AHL and save virtually all of Joseph cap (less 300K) and play whoever else you want in the NHL. The purpose of Blackwell inclusion is to move a bit of money and more importantly a bottom of the roster/AHL forward that the Hawks have to many of already before thinking of taking on Joseph. You can argue that Joseph actually has function/usefulness where Zaitsev not so much , but the counter is to a rebuilding Hawks is neither honestly provide any value other than what asset is attached to them.
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18 août 2023 à 14 h 28
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Quoting: SharkTank
Take the L guy. You're just embarrassing yourself at this point. 😬

There's no loss here, you have NO SUBSTANCE. I manhandle no substance people for breakfast

Any idiot can say "homer take" to something they don't like. I would bet a house that you are just not capable of coming up with a post half as insightful as the one I did so before flaming out others, at least become relevant just a little.

Quoting: wojohawk
What exactly is your point? Zaitsev 6 < Joseph at 7.65 (or net after Blackwell).

Ok but it's not how it works

Every team puts a value amount on each NHL player. That's how they determine how much a player is overpaid or not (this is coming directly from people who work in the NHL)

Zaitsev was close to a FULL dump, meaning that you could replace him by a replacement level player. Joseph is not even close to a full dump.

Quoting: wojohawk
There is also absolutely nothing stopping the Sens from waiving Blackwell and playing him in the AHL and save virtually all of Joseph cap (less 300K) and play whoever else you want in the NHL.

Good point that he could be sent to the AHL but there's already Parker Kelly with his NHL salary who should be sent.

My point is quite simple really, there's no way Ottawa is going to pay two 2nd round picks to shave 1.75 AAV this season (only for this year, they can afford Joseph's AAV next season quite easily)

That being said, Dorion is a time ticking bomb so you never know what can happen

Quoting: wojohawk
You can argue that Joseph actually has function/usefulness where Zaitsev not so much , but the counter is to a rebuilding Hawks is neither honestly provide any value other than what asset is attached to them.

Every team has its own context and it's perfectly fine if it doesn't make sense for the Hawks (although IMO they'd be quite stupid to not take Joseph and two 2nds if Blackwell is not included). I mean, 2nd round picks always seem to be quite valuable around the league

But I don't even want to trade Joseph, Sens need to shed about 1-2 M$. Trading Kubalik and his 2.5 AAV will do the trick. He will return an asset (2nd or 3rd at the very worst)

Plus there won't be much PP time for Kubalik, Sens need Joseph PK and ES defensive ability more
19 août 2023 à 8 h 52
#15
Snowhawk
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Quoting: Xspyrit
Tell me you're a bit clueless without telling me lol

I mean... do you realize that pretty much everything I have said was FACTUAL?

And since you are the reference in this matter, what was homer-ish in what was said exactly?


ok but Blackwell is a major downgrade on Joseph. So the Sens to save 1.75 AAV while getting worse and leaving a gigantic hole on the PK would spend two 2nd round picks? Zaitsev cost a 2nd and a 4th, close to a 6 M$ cap dump


I am not going to sit here and try to tell you Blackwell is as good as Joseph, he obviously isn’t but at the end of the day the Hawks don’t NEED Joseph and Ottawa does NEED cap space. So if the Sens want buy some of that cap space there is a cost.

All you have to do is scroll through all the teams on this site and list the number that have almost $3m in available cap space, I can tell after doing that it is not a lengthy list. On top of that, some of the teams who have the space now (Buffalo, Detroit) will be reluctant to use it on Joeseph because of their own priority RFAs next offseason.

With respect to there being a gigantic hole on the PK, that is irrelevant to the discussion on the cost to move Joseph, that hole remains regardless of what the price is.
19 août 2023 à 13 h 34
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Quoting: Snowhawk18
I am not going to sit here and try to tell you Blackwell is as good as Joseph, he obviously isn’t but at the end of the day the Hawks don’t NEED Joseph and Ottawa does NEED cap space. So if the Sens want buy some of that cap space there is a cost.

Can't disagree here, something will have to be done and due to this specific market, cap space is very valuable. IMO, the best option by far is to trade Kubalik (would return an asset vs costing one for Joseph, never played in Ottawa, UFA after the season, will be hard to find him PP time, Joseph has a slightly better scoring rate at ES over the last 2 seasons, will most likely ask a raise which Ottawa shouldn't give him as they should target a better player with the 6-7 M$ of cap space and only 1 top-9 spot to fill)

Quoting: Snowhawk18
All you have to do is scroll through all the teams on this site and list the number that have almost $3m in available cap space, I can tell after doing that it is not a lengthy list. On top of that, some of the teams who have the space now (Buffalo, Detroit) will be reluctant to use it on Joeseph because of their own priority RFAs next offseason.

Another reason why the right move is to trade Kubalik, who is easier to fit (2.5 vs 2.95 AAV) and would be more attractive due to 1 year vs 3 years and his scoring history. Note that there could be some retention in both cases.

Quoting: Snowhawk18
With respect to there being a gigantic hole on the PK, that is irrelevant to the discussion on the cost to move Joseph, that hole remains regardless of what the price is.

You're right but I'm saying this from Ottawa's perspective and if it would make sense for them. It just doesn't make any sense to trade Joseph now unless it was relatively cheap but due to the market context can't really be.
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21 août 2023 à 11 h 43
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Modifié 21 août 2023 à 14 h 6
Quoting: Xspyrit


Ok but it's not how it works

Every team puts a value amount on each NHL player. That's how they determine how much a player is overpaid or not (this is coming directly from people who work in the NHL)

Zaitsev was close to a FULL dump, meaning that you could replace him by a replacement level player. Joseph is not even close to a full dump.


Good point that he could be sent to the AHL but there's already Parker Kelly with his NHL salary who should be sent.

My point is quite simple really, there's no way Ottawa is going to pay two 2nd round picks to shave 1.75 AAV this season (only for this year, they can afford Joseph's AAV next season quite easily)

That being said, Dorion is a time ticking bomb so you never know what can happen


Every team has its own context and it's perfectly fine if it doesn't make sense for the Hawks (although IMO they'd be quite stupid to not take Joseph and two 2nds if Blackwell is not included). I mean, 2nd round picks always seem to be quite valuable around the league

But I don't even want to trade Joseph, Sens need to shed about 1-2 M$. Trading Kubalik and his 2.5 AAV will do the trick. He will return an asset (2nd or 3rd at the very worst)

Plus there won't be much PP time for Kubalik, Sens need Joseph PK and ES defensive ability more


I agree Joseph is no where near the fullish dump that Zaitsev is/was, but irregardless of the ability of Joseph....he serves no real need/purpose for a rebuilding team like the Hawks who definately are not really built to win this season, maybe not even next, and at best might be the last year of Joseph's remaining deal. The Hawks are not taking on Joseph's money and remaining term for a player they don't need in the least unless they are getting paid as him being mostly a dump. Other teams should/could view Joseph as more of a need in which case his cap becomes less of a dump percentagewise but then you have the hurdle of who has available cap space for those types of teams.

You continue referencing TWO 2nds where the only thing I have seen here is the orginal proposal of two 2nds offset by 3rds (one of which is likely to be extremely early in that 3rd and that 3rd offsets a 2nd in a later draft). That is not even close to "TWO" 2nds. Even the counters with Blackwell that remove one of the 3rd offsets is talking about two 2nds with one still being offset by a 3rd....which is again NOT two 2nds.

Hawks are not taking on even 7.65 in salary to flip a pair of 3rds into 2nds for a player that accomplishes NOTHING with where the Hawks are at but add payroll expense. They'll pay a kid to fill that spot and hang on to their capspace for the next Zaitsev, Bailey, or Dickinson where the price is right for the cap space relief.
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21 août 2023 à 21 h 45
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Quoting: wojohawk
I agree Joseph is no where near the fullish dump that Zaitsev is/was, but irregardless of the ability of Joseph....he serves no real need/purpose for a rebuilding team like the Hawks who definately are not really built to win this season, maybe not even next, and at best might be the last year of Joseph's remaining deal. The Hawks are not taking on Joseph's money and remaining term for a player they don't need in the least unless they are getting paid as him being mostly a dump. Other teams should/could view Joseph as more of a need in which case his cap becomes less of a dump percentagewise but then you have the hurdle of who has available cap space for those types of teams.

You continue referencing TWO 2nds where the only thing I have seen here is the orginal proposal of two 2nds offset by 3rds (one of which is likely to be extremely early in that 3rd and that 3rd offsets a 2nd in a later draft). That is not even close to "TWO" 2nds. Even the counters with Blackwell that remove one of the 3rd offsets is talking about two 2nds with one still being offset by a 3rd....which is again NOT two 2nds.

Hawks are not taking on even 7.65 in salary to flip a pair of 3rds into 2nds for a player that accomplishes NOTHING with where the Hawks are at but add payroll expense. They'll pay a kid to fill that spot and hang on to their capspace for the next Zaitsev, Bailey, or Dickinson where the price is right for the cap space relief.

I am not talking about Hawks context as I don`t know enough about it, solely talking about value in principle. Then they`re maybe just not good trading partners

And the two 2nds was not the current ACGM, saw it a few times in others.
 
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