M1 Carolina Hurricanes: A strong roster got even stronger. Could use more scoring, but how much scoring do you really need when you have the insane amount of defense and above average goaltending? Injuries will definitely determine the success of this team.
M2 New Jersey Devils: Couple steps forward, couple steps backwards, but they will have higher expectations this year, so it’s quite likely they are fighting with the Rangers than the Canes. Will the rookies in Hughes and Nemec be able to offset the off-season losses? A heavy burden for 2 rookies.
M3 New York Rangers: Simply put, Shesterkin will drag the Rangers into the playoffs kicking and screaming. It will be a dogfight for M2.
M4 New York Islanders: Just barely miss the playoffs by 1-2 points. They kept the roster the same, with no real improvements. Overall, one of the worst off seasons here. They will be competitive, but the only way I see them sneaking in is if Boston decides to just rebuild now.
M5 Columbus Blue Jackets: Certainly a massive improvement, adding Fantilli to the mix. How much they improve will depend on the overall health of the team. Probably miss the playoffs by around 10-15 assuming they stay healthy for the majority of the season.
M6 Pittsburgh Penguins: Another year passes and the core grows older. Now that the Pens have landed Karlsson, I think that will be the final nail in the coffin that puts them in a rebuild. Dubas did a good job not overpaying for Karlsson, but I think that the Pens will regret this trade the most.
M7 Washington Capitals: Another very old team, but they have had a bit of a youth influx of late. The slightly younger team that they are now won’t be enough to reverse the passage of time, and Washington will be entering the Celebrini sweepstakes.
M8 Philadelphia Flyers: They are in a rebuild. Celebrini sweepstakes. Any position other than this right low is incorrect.
Atlantic Division
A1 Toronto Maple Leafs: Unless a major event happens, it’s hard to put anyone else in the Atlantic above the Leafs in the regular season. Probably lead the division by about 20 points by season’s end.
A2 Tampa Bay Lightning: Arguably the most experienced team in the Eastern Conference. Vasilevskiy will drag them into the playoffs regardless of the roster in front of him. That being said, losing Palat and McDonagh last offseason, and now adding Colton, Killorn, and other depth pieces to that list this off-season, Vasilevskiy has his work cut out for him this season.
A3 Buffalo Sabres: After Toronto and Tampa, the Atlantic turns into an unpredictable crapshoot. Buffalo is going to be my surprise pick. Losing Quinn for half a season will really hurt, but I think the Sabres go full throttle when they get him back and manage to snag a divisional seed.
A4 WC1 Florida Panthers: Let’s be honest here, the Panthers shouldn’t have even made the playoffs last year. They got lucky that their 3rd stringer Lyon got hot late, and that Pittsburgh imploded. I like the moves they made to address the liability that is their dcore, but time will tell if they were the right moves.
A5 WC2 Boston Bruins: I think Boston makes a move for a top 6 C before the start of the season. Will they be as competitive as last year, absolutely not, but they still have a very good dcore, and 2 very competent goalies, so while they might not score as much, they can make up for that with the defensive impacts. If they don’t make a move for a top 6 C, WC2 goes to the New York Islanders.
A6 Detroit Red Wings: This was more of a last minute swap with Ottawa, as I originally had Ottawa ahead. I think the Wings will finish within 10 points of the Bruins, just barely missing out on the playoffs. Even with some questionable signings, their youth should be able to carry this team further.
A7 Ottawa Senators: A last minute drop, with the biggest reason being goaltending. Forsberg is a decent backup who can handle a bit of a workload, but I think Korpisalo will be the next Mrazek/Campbell. I think goaltending ends up being what sinks any chance of the Sens making the playoffs. Add in that they aren’t great defensively, don’t have a great coach, and their forward core as a whole has basically remained the same in offensive impact, I think it’s going to be another long year for the Sens.
A8 Montreal Canadiens: Very young and injury prone team. Likely trying for the Celebrini sweepstakes.
Central Division
C1 Dallas Stars: Already a strong team, and improvements from their young guns should help quite a bit. I still have my concerns about scoring outside of their top line, but we’ll see if my concerns are warranted in the playoffs.
C2 Colorado Avalanche: I really like the RyJo move, as well as the Colton move. Overall, they will remain quite competitive. That being said, not having Landeskog for another year, and losing Compher will really hurt. I think they fall back a little but finish within 7 points of the Stars.
C3 St. Louis Blues: A bounce back candidate, I think the Blues can turn it around from last season.
C4 WC2 Arizona Coyotes: A very big surprise pick, and one that can wreak some havoc in the West. Big additions in Dumba, Durzi, Zucker, and Cooley should have a big impact on the Yotes. I don’t think that they are done adding either.
C5 Minnesota Wild: I would have them as a playoff team, but due to their cap constraints, their roster is falling apart. Kaprizov will definitely make the Wild competitive but I think they fall short by a few points.
C6 Nashville Predators: Kind of a hard team to predict, but I think they fall just short of the playoffs. The Wild and Preds are interchangeable as of right now.
C7 Winnipeg Jets: They are entering the Celebrini sweepstakes. Sheifele and Hellebuyck are gone at some point within the next year, and unless they change their minds, Winninpeg will be down in the dumps for a few seasons.
C8 Chicago Blackhawks: Full tankathon. I think they might be competitive enough to push for C7, but they are in a rebuild, so no need to rush.
Pacific Division
P1 Seattle Kraken: Another surprise pick. The Kraken are set to improve, and I think that Vegas and Edmonton both regress a bit. This date will lie in young guns like Beniers taking a step or 2 forward this season.
P2 Vegas Golden Knights: Reigning cup champs, but they have lost another key guy in Smith. How many more hits can they take before they need to rebuild? I think when the cap rises again, they get more competitive, but time will tell.
P3 Edmonton Oilers: The Oilers aren’t going to have the insane PP they did last year, and big names like McDavid, Hyman, and RNH are very likely bound for an offensive regression this year. Ok maybe not McDavid, but who knows. They still don’t have Bouchard signed as well, and Skinner will have to have another big year.
P4 WC1 Los Angeles Kings: I will be frank, I don’t like the moves that LA made this off-season. Acquiring PLD and signing him to that extension will not end well. Gavrikov signing is also a bit pricey. And bringing in Talbot might be the biggest mistake. I could definitely see the Kings falling out of the playoffs due to goaltending being an issue, but I think the rest of their roster makes up for it.
P5 Vancouver Canucks: Will they have another terrible start to the season? Can they overcome their overall defensive shortcomings? Can they stay healthy? Way too many questions, not enough answers, and a very likely playoff miss. Frankly, I also have a lack of confidence in their roster as a whole.
P6 Anaheim Ducks: They have made a couple of good additions in Killorn and Gudas, and whilst they overpaid, now they have some sandpaper who can protect the skill players. They also aren’t as bad defensively as they were. Still won’t be enough to make the playoffs though.
P7 Calgary Flames: Players want out all over the roster, and they just don’t look competitive. Probably entering the Celebrini sweepstakes, assuming they don’t make any moves that might make the team better.
P8 San Jose Sharks: Celebrini sweepstakes. Full tank. Should attempt to sell off guys like Ferraro, Hertl, and Barabanov as well.
Some pretty hot takes here.
- Strange that you bring up goaltending for Ottawa but have Buffalo 3rd in the division.
- I like the idea of Arizona getting close to the playoffs, I like the additions they've made. I doubt they make it in though, I would take Minny over them and probably 5 teams from the Pacific.
- You are very high on Seattle here, IMO they are much closer to St. Louis in that most of their players overachieved last year and probably take a step back. Their 4th line had over 100 points last year and 2 of them are gone now
- Calgary has traded their only official trade request in Toffoli, no one else has asked out. Plus they were analytically a top 5 team last year. Hard to see them being that low unless they do sell between now and the start of the season
The coyotes shouldn’t be placed in wild card conversations, the guys they signed will merely be trade bait at the deadline
And come on, the wild aren’t missing the playoffs anytime soon
Minnesota has a very similar roster to Boston now so they certainly aren't a lock but due to how weak the Central is they probably finish 3rd.
I would take Arizona over all of Chicago, St. Louis, Nashville, and maybe even Winnipeg right now though. You grossly underrate their team and the additions they've made
Some pretty hot takes here.
- Strange that you bring up goaltending for Ottawa but have Buffalo 3rd in the division.
- I like the idea of Arizona getting close to the playoffs, I like the additions they've made. I doubt they make it in though, I would take Minny over them and probably 5 teams from the Pacific.
- You are very high on Seattle here, IMO they are much closer to St. Louis in that most of their players overachieved last year and probably take a step back. Their 4th line had over 100 points last year and 2 of them are gone now
- Calgary has traded their only official trade request in Toffoli, no one else has asked out. Plus they were analytically a top 5 team last year. Hard to see them being that low unless they do sell between now and the start of the season
The Blues did not overachieve in 21-22. They vastly underachieved last season.
The Blues did not overachieve in 21-22. They vastly underachieved last season.
My issue is STL has a ton of money invested into their veteran defense and the team defense was weak. That doesn't portend well going forward as they are bringing back the same blue line.
The Blues did not overachieve in 21-22. They vastly underachieved last season.
Yes they did. They had 9 players score 20+ goals. Only 1 other team had more than 6 players reach that 20 goal mark, they had 7 and they won the Stanley cup. Similarly Seattle had 13 players score 30+ points and 16 regulars pace at least 30+ points last season.
My issue is STL has a ton of money invested into their veteran defense and the team defense was weak. That doesn't portend well going forward as they are bringing back the same blue line.
Again, the team defense failures were on the whole team, not just the defense. The first 60% or so of the season the forwards were turning over the puck in OMG NO places and flaking on the back check constantly. Simply, they were cheating the system. Schenn was gruesome defensively last season. Even ROR and Buch were making mistakes, which was hella-bizarre. Some nights it seemed like Barbashev was only forward playing the right way.
So yes, the D was crap, but that means pretty much everybody not named Binnington. Leddy and Krug were especially abysmal, but there's so much blame to go around. The only Dmen who did their job were Bortuzzo and Scandella, and Rosen up until the very end of the year. Parayko takes waaaaaaaaay too much heat for last season, and most of his mistakes that were passing the puck anyway.
It's also quite appropriate to pin a not insignificant amount of blame on Van Ryn, McTavish and Berube, and those first two are gone now. I'm not saying the Blues will go straight back to being top 10 team defense like usual, but there should be a noticeable amount of defensive bounce back this season.
The Pens finished 32 points ahead of CBJ last year and have a better roster this season - assuming Guentzel doesn't miss like half the year. This would be an epic turnaround for CBJ or an incredible collapse by the Pens. Pens should finish somewhere near the Islanders I'd imagine. 2 point difference last year and the Pens got better and Islanders pretty much stayed the same as you mentioned. That old core for the Pens all just had great seasons and aren't really showing much of a sign of slowing down. It's going to happen for sure, don't think they're at that point yet though
Yes they did. They had 9 players score 20+ goals. Only 1 other team had more than 6 players reach that 20 goal mark, they had 7 and they won the Stanley cup. Similarly Seattle had 13 players score 30+ points and 16 regulars pace at least 30+ points last season.
Heh. Are we really going back to the shooting luck thing? The Blues play a system that eschews shot volume for high percentage goals. They also happen to just have a lot of good shooters and a handful of very good set up passers. They've been right near the top of the shooting percentage chart for 4-5 years running. And despite a horrible shooting slump over the first half of last season, they still ended up shooting over 11% last season, which was tied for 3rd. They also led the league in rush goals.
Other than staying healthy enough to do it, it's not really much of a feat to have nine 20 goal scorers when you have nine guys perfectly capable of scoring 20 goals. The Blues also tend to want to roll four lines and they've been deep enough to do it for a while. I know it's not the same thing, but going by scoring rate, they still had nine guys score at a 20 goal place or better last season - and that list does not include the departed Tarasenko, ROR and Barbashev.
To be frank, I don't understand everyone being so down on the Kings due to goaltending. They were a playoff-bound team at the deadline with Copley (.903 for the season), Petersen (.868 for the season), and Quick (.876 for the season), when their second pair was Roy and Durzi. After Korpisalo (.911 CBJ) came over he became a .921 SV% player, the highest of his career.
They will have Tablot (.889 for the season), Copley, Rittich (.901 for the season), and Portillo this season and Gavrikov-Roy as their second pair. The team will need a good goaltender by the deadline, but they were a playoff team with a goaltending average below .900. The bar for Talbot and Copley is so low if they are a .900 tandem, the Kings are in better shape this year compared to last.
Minnesota has a very similar roster to Boston now so they certainly aren't a lock but due to how weak the Central is they probably finish 3rd.
I would take Arizona over all of Chicago, St. Louis, Nashville, and maybe even Winnipeg right now though. You grossly underrate their team and the additions they've made
They’re just repeating what the ducks did last season some solid talent, but a dog **** season
Heh. Are we really going back to the shooting luck thing? The Blues play a system that eschews shot volume for high percentage goals. They also happen to just have a lot of good shooters and a handful of very good set up passers. They've been right near the top of the shooting percentage chart for 4-5 years running. And despite a horrible shooting slump over the first half of last season, they still ended up shooting over 11% last season, which was tied for 3rd. They also led the league in rush goals.
Other than staying healthy enough to do it, it's not really much of a feat to have nine 20 goal scorers when you have nine guys perfectly capable of scoring 20 goals. The Blues also tend to want to roll four lines and they've been deep enough to do it for a while. I know it's not the same thing, but going by scoring rate, they still had nine guys score at a 20 goal place or better last season - and that list does not include the departed Tarasenko, ROR and Barbashev.
Right so even though every model said they overachieved in 21-22 and expected a decline in 22-23 I should completely ignore that and just listen to you? I am not denying they underachieved last year but they were certainly on the luckier side the year prior
Right so even though every model said they overachieved in 21-22 and expected a decline in 22-23 I should completely ignore that and just listen to you? I am not denying they underachieved last year but they were certainly on the luckier side the year prior
Heh. Models. Funny stuff. Are these all the same models that habitually admit they don't get the Blues?
It's not lucky when you do the same thing you did the three years prior, dude. It's not lucky when you completely crap up a season and still repeat that same shooting prowess, even with an outlier slump during the season. The Blues shoot a high percentage. They don't pad their xG total with wishful shots. Hell, they pass up tons of good looks for better ones. Ask anyone who actually watches them. This is all old news.
The biggest luck the 21 22 team had was staying reasonably healthy for once. Regular season AND playoffs.
They’re just repeating what the ducks did last season some solid talent, but a dog **** season
Huh? The Ducks had mediocre forward depth at best and horrible defense. Arizona has at least 3 very solid forward lines, legitimate center depth, and an actual NHL caliber d-core.
From the 2022 TDL and forward, in terms of relevant players the Ducks subtracted Getzlaf, Milano, Drysdale, Rakell, H. Lindholm, Manson, Deslauriers, and Steel from their 22-23 roster. They have added Vatrano, Strome, McTavish, and Kulikov. That is a massive downgrade to their roster.
From the 2023 TDL to now, in terms of relevant players the Yotes have subtracted Chychrun, Gostisbehere, Fischer, and N. Ritchie from their 23-24 roster. They've added Zucker, Kerfoot, Cooley, Guenther, Dumba, Durzi, Dermott(?), and maybe Soderstrom. Geekie and Doan could also make the team and be impactful next year.
Heh. Models. Funny stuff. Are these all the same models that habitually admit they don't get the Blues?
It's not lucky when you do the same thing you did the three years prior, dude. It's not lucky when you completely crap up a season and still repeat that same shooting prowess, even with an outlier slump during the season. The Blues shoot a high percentage. They don't pad their xG total with wishful shots. Hell, they pass up tons of good looks for better ones. Ask anyone who actually watches them. This is all old news.
The biggest luck the 21 22 team had was staying reasonably healthy for once. Regular season AND playoffs.
You talk about the models and the Blues like they are guys trying to predict a girls feelings.
I think you vastly overestimate the value of low quality shots if you think teams "pad their xG" with them.
St. Louis still ranked 20th in HDSF and 13th in HDGF. Yes they ranked last in LDSF but they also ranked 8th in LDGF
I'm also not even addressing how much Husso played above expectation
You talk about the models and the Blues like they are guys trying to predict a girls feelings.
I think you vastly overestimate the value of low quality shots if you think teams "pad their xG" with them.
St. Louis still ranked 20th in HDSF and 13th in HDGF. Yes they ranked last in LDSF but they also ranked 8th in LDGF
I'm also not even addressing how much Husso played above expectation
No, I talk about models like they're subjective formulas based on a rather flawed stat and usually entirely made up of on-ice numbers with no context or individual stats that get treated too often like gospel despite the creators openly insisting every year that their model did not accurately summarize certain teams. Because, ya know, they are.
Husso played very well indeed, but the team defense and PK played a considerable part in that.
And yes, if you take 5-6-7 fewer medium range shots per night, it adds up over 82 games. So so so much about the Blues last season was not doing things they normally do and doing things they don't normally do. The ONE thing they still did like normal was get goals from a lot of sources with a very high shooting percentage.
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