A late 2nd maybe, not Philly's which is likely going to be 35th overall ish

Terrible deal for Ottawa. Their Blueline is set, they've no room to add a 6.5mil dman, nor should they want to.

I mean... I would deal the Hurricanes 2nd but not Philly's

I'd be hesitant doing Carolina's 2nd. Much prefer a 3rd

The Pens might be interested in that.

Maybe drop Pickering and Carter (who won't wave for STL).

A 1st, 2nd, and Granlund (about even salary exchange) is about right.

I would be too... but a second seems like about right value

Let him go elsewhere then

Fair enough

But then Stl doesnt do that

No (drop grandlund and Carter or pay us to take them)

Sure that’s fine but it’s hard to gauge his value

Still no

3rd round pick is the highest pick the canes have moved for a rental. Vrana isn’t the type of player to change that

Sure but the Pens aren't giving up a 1st, a 2nd, and their second best prospect for a second pairing LW.

Sure but it’ll cost at least a first plus to dump grandlund and Carter

It’s cost a little over 2 firsts for Buch as it stands

No Buch is worth way more than a first and you’d have to pay at least a second for someone to take Granlund

Buch would be the best winger on the Pens from day 1

Granlund is a buyout. He will either be part of a trade for salary purposes (like above), in which case is cost is nothing because teams must take salary back. That's just how it works. Or he will be bought out. The Pens aren't trading a 2nd or 1st to dump a guy who they can easily buy out.

Carter isn't waiving for STL, so that point is moot.



The Pens have this guy named Guentzel as top LW. Bush will not be unseating him. He would be their second LW, a spot currently occupied by Reiley Smith, who was just about as good as Bush last year 5v5.

Buchnevich is better than Guentzel. They both average a point a game, Buchnevich is the better defensive player, and he doesn’t get the luxury of playing with Crosby…

He also can play RW so not even sure why you are arguing this as you don’t have a RW remotely close to him.

Lets look at Pens wingers last season, 5v5 stats ranked against forwards with 500+ min
Expected Goals:
Guentzel: 19.7, 22nd
Rust: 20.9, 15th
Rakell: 19.9, 21st
Buchnevich: 9.7, 238th

Corsi:
Guentzel: 54%, 55th
Rust: 53%, 81st
Rakell: 54%, 55th
Buchnevich: 47%, 265th

Relative Expected Goals:
Guentzel: 0.4%, 189th
Rust: 2.9%, 93rd
Rakell: 3%, 89th
Buchnevich: 0.9%, 162nd

On-Ice Expected Goals Against per 60:
Guentzel: 2.93, 309th
Rust: 2.73, 229th
Rakell: 2.81, 275th
Buchnevich: 2.85, 288th

Rebounds Created:
Guentzel: 16, 57th
Rust: 32, 1st
Rakell: 17, 36th
Buchnevich: 9, 200th

Created xgoals:
Guentzel: 18.8, 17th
Rust: 18.6, 18th
Rakell: 17.6, 24th
Buchnevich: 9.4, 215th

The only area I saw Bush was much better was shooting %. He shot 20% during his 5v5 time, which explains his higher goals than expected goals. His average shooting percentage 5v5 is around 13%. He was lucky last year.

On this year's Pens team, he would be the 4th best winger. The data shows that. If you count last years Pens team, he wouldn't be in the top 6 (Zucker had a great year).

Heh. And pray tell, how many times have you watched Buch play over the last two seasons?

Ah, the seeing is believing fallacy.

Tell me, do you think dinosaurs existed? How about the Roman Empire? Atomic particles?

I'm guessing you do. I'm guessing you were told they existed but maybe, just maybe you did some research for yourself. Perhaps you looked into it and saw the data. That would be very helpful. So helpful in fact, you could say with a large amount of certainty that you are correct. Even though you never "saw" any of it.

You see, people use data all the time to understand things they can't observe. No one can watch every player unless they have nothing else to do. So instead, I rely on data and objective facts to understand how to compare things. People who simply watch games are easily subjected to bias, emotion, and anecdotal evidence.

Try another argument, because if I watched every game Bush played or couldn't distinguish him from James Earl Jones, his data would still be his data.

Heh. You accuse me of a whopper fallacy, and then proceed to use pretty much every fallacy known to mankind in your diatribe. That's adoooorable.

First off, I never said you had to watch every Buch game. There's a ton of space between always and never. I asked how many. And seeing as how you wasted all that effort to completely dodge the simple and polite question, I'm guessing that number is suuuuper low. I mean, the only two ways to somehow imagine that Rust and Rakell are better players than Buch are to 1) not actually have seen him play or 2) ingest enough cocaine to kill a decent sized adult moose. Seeing as how you're still alive, it has to be #1.

Secondly, you posted exactly one objective data stat: rebounds created. The other five are NOT objective at all. And not only are those analytic stats FULLY subjective, they're not even individual stats. Let's be 1000000% clear on this: analytics are NOT objective data. That anyone could ever imagine they were is gobsmacking.

Finally, the point was if you never watch a player, how are you gonna sit there and spout all these myopic viewpoints as declarations of fact solely from reading analytic stats. That's just a great way to be woefully wrong a lot.

But since you love simplistic stats so much, here's one for ya: Buch has topped Guentzel in P/60 the last two seasons, both overall and at 5v5.

I used every fallacy? Wow, that's amazing that I fit so many into such little text.

Let's be clear, your question was simple but not polite. It's intent was to say how great he looks on the ice and that those "silly" advanced stats mean nothing. Let's also be clear that instead of countering my stats you instead decided to dodge that argument for another with little to no merit, "the eye test".

Now you've decided to become even more hostile. Extending words and bringing in obsurd notions of drug use.

So the stats aren't objective? So there isn't a calculation that can be done by outside parties to come to the same number and conclusion? You know, like all objective facts. Just because you don't like something, doesn't make it subjective.

How am I going to judge stats if I never watched a player? The same way I can speak to my local community about helping the homeless situation without ever having been homeless. Because I have the right to look at facts and think for myself.

But you don't want to talk about that, do you slick? You want to tell me how great a guy looks on the ice and how he is worth 15 1st round picks. That's great! Your opinion is certainly allowed and encouraged on a forum such as this. But your opinion is not represented by facts. Don't pretend that it is.

As for the only actual facts your brought to the table, Bush has more points per 60 than Guentzel. Let's look at 5v5 numbers.

Bush this year: 2.51
Bush last year; 2.46

Guentzel this year: 1.86
Guentzel last year: 2.48

So he had more points per 60 this year but not last year. I wonder why... oh yeah I know, he shot 20%. If you put him back into his normal shooting percentage than those points per 60 becomes 1.97

Hmm. So he has similar scoring numbers to Guentzel, similar defensive numbers to Guentzel. But he doesn't draw penalties, hit people, take the puck away, or play 75+ games per season. Sounds like Guentzel is better to me.

But, again, you don't want to talk about numbers or facts. You want to be right. Well be a King in your own head and leave me alone unless you have data.

Stats are certainly useful but they have to be viewed with context also.

Plenty of Vegas fans are convinced Barbashev was somehow held back in St. Louis because of his production with Vegas, specifically in the playoffs.

Barby benefited from playing with Eichel. The truth is Barby is a nice complimentary player but he would never be the primary driver of the type of points he produced in the playoffs.

Buchnevich finished last year with a 1.08 ppg production. That’s good for 25th in the league. There’s 32 teams in the league. If you only want to look at stats the case could easily be made that Buch is a 1st line player.

The terms top line, top 6, middle 6, etc.. are certainly subjective. I wouldn’t have an issue with someone saying Buch is a top 6 player. He certainly would fill a need with Pittsburgh.

Anyway we slice it there’s no trade happening in real life. Unfortunately the Blues are not embracing a rebuild, at least for now. It’s still fun to come up with hypotheticals.

Oh I totally agree. Bush is a very good player but the Pens need a 3rd C, not a 1st / 2nd LW.

It can be fun to see what-ifs. Sorry we had a little argument on your ACGM.

Setting aside another litany of fallacies and a weirdly overgrown victim complex, you cannot even get basic facts right.

Buch had 3.3 P/60 last season and 3.4 P/60 the season prior. At 5v5, he had 2.6 and 2.5.

https://www.hockey-reference.com/players/b/buchnpa01.html

Guentzel had 2.8 and 3.3., respectively. At 5v5 he had 2.5 and 1.9, respectively.

https://www.hockey-reference.com/players/g/guentja01.html

And yet AGAIN, analytics are subjective on-ice measures, based on another subjective measure. They are not objective data, nor are they even individual stats. Goals and wins and points and saves are examples of objective data. Corsi and xG and alllll that stuff are subjective formulas.

Good grief already.