Quoting: matthias893
Nice work, and you're right that ranking systems will say this is a good trade, and trading down is almost always a value gain in those terms, but there are a few realities this year that change the landscape.
First is how top heavy this draft it. At least from what I've read from various sources the top is deep but the second half of the 1st round is closer to a standard draft. 4OA likely has closer value to 1OA or 2OA in a normal year, but 29 is still 29. Likewise the 2024 1st is going to be a standard value pick.
Second, the Sharks are desperate for elite talent. Yes we need quantity, but we need quality more. Our rebuild has to kick off right with top end players this year and next. 13OA will be solid, but its not going to be Smith/Michkov/Carlsson and we badly need multiple players of that caliber.
If Shark's fan's say its not close it isn't because the value isn't there, its because its going to take an insane overpayment to get 4OA from us. The kind of overpayment GM's are probably just not going to pay unless they are desperate.
You are correct about the
"insane overpayment", is not a first over the value close to insane.
As you have noted my responce was to
"Thats not even close to getting 4 OA. Not. Even. Close." and I provided the evidence that it was more than a fair offer, as all but the first draft value charts clearly indicate that this offer is a huge over payment with the 2024 first being the icing.
It is interesting how values are perceived.
Before the 2021 draft, I proposed trading the first OA for all three Blue Jacket first round picks, 5-12-25.
Using the first draft value:
5 49.20
11 34.90
25 17.83
101.93
While the 1st OA has a value of 100.
All Blue Jacket fans railed against it even though it was close to value.
In this instance, we have push back from getting 3 first round picks for the 4th OA.
I guess, it is all a matter of perspective, but in reality, the Sharks have a very poor prospect pool (ranked 21st https://theathletic.com/3510017/2022/08/22/nhl-pipeline-rankings-2022-prospects/) and Greir may want to have more darts to throw at the prospect pool to restock the team.
Let's not forget back in 2015 McDavid was destined to be the game changer yet Edmonton has not progressed to the finals since that draft.