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Kalopsia

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27 juin 2018
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Capitals de Washington
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Forum: Armchair-GM7 juill. 2022 à 0 h 9
Forum: Armchair-GM6 juill. 2022 à 23 h 47
Sujet: Following GMBMs latest comments
<div class="quote"><div class="quote_t">Quoting: <b>All_Knowing</b></div><div>No disrespect to you because I believe this is where the Caps are moving towards, but if this is the team the Caps put out, they will be mediocre AT BEST. I love Backy, but I really wish he was going to take the year to rehab. And Hags - great determination to come back and you never like to see injuries, but the dude is waiting until mid August to make a decision. That is $2.75mil just hanging out there a MONTH after free agency. Bad timing.</div></div>

All I can hope at this point is that it's a smokescreen and they're really planning to "Kucherov" Backstrom. Nick's gotta know that he torpedos the team's chances this year by insisting he'll be back in-season, right? They said after the season that things have to change, they can't just immediately decide to do the exact same thing as last year, right? Ugh.
Forum: Armchair-GM5 juill. 2022 à 17 h 14
Sujet: Kent Hughes Getting Busy
<div class="quote"><div class="quote_t">Quoting: <b>Capitalfail67</b></div><div>imo Capitals replace Backstrom w Miller or Malkin. Backy was a 70-80 point guy for the majority of his career (last year he was injured and missed a ton of time) Dvorak isnt going to be able to provide those numbers ever. imo Dvorak is a skilled 3c and thats how he should be used.... McM currently slots in there so i dont see him as being a good fit unfortunately. ESP is Lappy isnt traded and we need to create a spot for him.</div></div>

I could see the Caps going for Dvorak as a budget option if they expect Backstrom to return next season. Giving out a huge deal to a UFA center would make fitting Backstrom back in (especially with important pieces like Orlov and Jensen needing new deals) difficult if not impossible. They could have Dvorak centering a shutdown 3rd line while McMichael centers a sheltered 2nd line, and whichever one does worse moves to wing when Backstrom returns. It's not an ideal scenario, but if they have to plan around Backstrom returning in 2023 their options are gonna be really limited. I like Dvorak better as an option than paying a huge price for Miller and using as a pure rental, for example.
Forum: Armchair-GM3 juill. 2022 à 17 h 38
Sujet: Smackitals
<div class="quote"><div class="quote_t">Quoting: <b>theleano1</b></div><div>I think if we are trading Miller is more than likely a sign and trade, Miller is more of a valuable piece than Filaia, the price should be about double of what Fiala got</div></div>

If you’re assuming it’s a sign and trade, then it ups his value by not being a rental, but it also hurts his value because it severely limits the number of teams in play. A team interested in him as a sign and trade has to 1) have a significant need at either wing or center, 2) be a place Miller likes enough to sign with on a long term deal, 3) see their window as open right now <em>and</em> open long enough that signing a guy to a massive contract that’ll start after he turns 30 makes sense, and 4) have enough cap flexibility going forward to afford that contract. There’s not a lot of teams that fit that description, and they’ll be debating the value of giving up a massive package for Miller verses just waiting and filling their need through free agency. I don’t buy that the market for Miller is gonna be as crazy as Nucks fans think.
Forum: Armchair-GM30 juin 2022 à 15 h 2
Sujet: Targets
<div class="quote"><div class="quote_t">Quoting: <b>ON3M4N</b></div><div>1. He's not backing up Swayman and both guys started 39 games last year for Boston.

2. Boston isn't debating a rebuild. Bergeron wouldn't be coming back if the teams plan was to rebuild. They have Marchand, Hall, Pastrnak, DeBrusk, McAvoy, Lindholm, Carlo, Swayman (to name a few) all under contract. They're still very much a playoff team

3. Ullmark didn't sign in Boston because of Cassidy, he signed there because of the team they had in front of him.</div></div>

1) Pre-ASB Ullmark had 24 GP to Swayman’s 17. Post-ASB those numbers were flipped, 24 for Swayman and 17 to Ullmark. Then in the playoffs Ullmark had two bad games and they went with Swayman the rest of the way. It’s clear which way the wind is blowing. Would you honestly say you expect Ullmark to get more starts than Swayman next season?

2) Bergeron isn’t back yet and there were rumors they’d consider offers for Pastrnak. It’s clearly within the realm of possibility. And there’s a difference between a guy getting back in the lineup and a guy getting back to 100%. The Caps certainly felt that this year when Backstrom finally returned from rehabbing his hip and was a shell of his former self. No guarantee that Marchand and McAvoy get back right at the 6 month mark and pick up right where they left off last year.

3) He obviously didn’t sign solely because of Cassidy, but the coach is clearly a factor when a guy’s good enough to have some choice in where he goes.
Forum: Armchair-GM30 juin 2022 à 12 h 31
Sujet: Targets
<div class="quote"><div class="quote_t">Quoting: <b>Roperttos</b></div><div>Ullmark would be a good fit for the Caps but his NMC might be a problem</div></div>

<div class="quote"><div class="quote_t">Quoting: <b>ON3M4N</b></div><div>Don't know how available Ullmark is (at least this season) with a NMC. Next off-season he goes to a NTC and Swayman will need a new deal, so I imagine that's when Boston would be looking to trade Ullmark.</div></div>

Ullmark signed in Boston thinking he’d be the starting goalie on a cup contender coached by Bruce Cassidy. Now he’s backing up Swayman, the Bruins have been so devastated by injuries that they seem to be debating a rebuild, and Cassidy’s out. Normally I’d say expecting a guy to waive his NMC one year into a new deal is nuts, but I think Ullmark’s in such a unique situation that it’s a real possibility.
Forum: Armchair-GM30 juin 2022 à 12 h 23
Forum: Armchair-GM29 juin 2022 à 21 h 0
Sujet: Maybe too many players but who knows
<div class="quote"><div class="quote_t">Quoting: <b>YesThisIsFlo</b></div><div>It is indeed a concern, as the handedness of the center determines which side of the ice they are better at faceoffs on. The Canucks currently have no right handed centers on their roster, so are particularly weak on faceoffs on one side of the ice. You're right the UFA pool is weak, but that's why they're looking in trades too.

As for Eller, I like him and think he makes a solid 3C! I would say that you'd probably happily keep Eller then, and flip him for a 3rd to BUF! Recoup a pick after trading for Miller. He just isn't a fit for Van's lineup, especially since they're considering moving fwds like Miller, Boeser, or Garland to make cap room. Kinda defeats the purpose if you're bringing in another fwd on a 3.5 cap hit no?</div></div>

Eller aside... I know guys do better at faceoff on their strong side, I just wonder if it really matters enough to make acquiring specifically a right handed center a priority. When a coach is deciding which line to put out for a specific faceoff, I would think managing ice time and line matchups would take priority of the handedness of the line's center? If the Horvat line's half way through their shift and they just forced an icing but the faceoff's on Horvat's weak side, I don't think Boudreau's pulling them off and sending the Gagner line out to up the chances of winning the draw. The Canucks top 7 faceoff guys were all lefties last year, and that didn't stop the Canucks from finishing 7th in FO%. I think the bigger help would be getting a right handed winger who's decent on draws and playing him with Petterson so that guy and Petterson can just take the faceoffs on their strong sides. The Caps have been doing that for a while with Oshie since Kuzy and recently Backstrom have been terrible at faceoffs. They still <a href="https://www.nhl.com/stats/teams?reportType=season&amp;seasonFrom=20212022&amp;seasonTo=20212022&amp;gameType=2&amp;filter=gamesPlayed,gte,1&amp;sort=faceoffWinPct&amp;page=0&amp;pageSize=50" rel="nofollow noreferrer noopener" target="_blank">suck at faceoffs overall</a>, but probably less than they would otherwise.
Forum: Armchair-GM29 juin 2022 à 20 h 11
Sujet: 32 teams AGM - WSH
<div class="quote"><div class="quote_t">Quoting: <b>krakowitz</b></div><div>It's expected Vancouver can get a package like this for Miller, so I'm assuming Caps would have to include Lapierre in a Miller trade. But given the Fiala trade, maybe it can get done without Lapierre if the market fizzles enough</div></div>

I know there's rumors about a bidding war, but I just don't get who would give them a package like this. Teams that are in a cap crunch will want him because of his cheap cap hit, but they'll be valuing him as a rental, and I can't see a team giving up 3 1sts plus in value for a rental. Teams that have room to extend him are mostly gonna be the ones who're rebuilding, and they won't want to give a massive package of futures for a guy and then give him a massive extension that starts after he turns 30. So to get a package like the one in this ACGM you need multiple teams who are currently in their window to contend and have lots of cap space (and need Miller, and that Miller is willing to extend with). The only teams I see that fit that description are the Caps and the Avs, and the Avs' cupboard is so bare they don't have the assets to make a massive offer in the first place. The Rangers have been brought up but I don't think they have the space to extend Miller while also re-signing K'Andre, Laf, and Chytil next year. If you can think of another team that's in a position to make this kind of offer let me know, cause I can't think of any.
Forum: Armchair-GM29 juin 2022 à 19 h 38
Sujet: Maybe too many players but who knows
<div class="quote"><div class="quote_t">Quoting: <b>YesThisIsFlo</b></div><div>If it helps at all, WSH can keep Eller lol. I don't think Eller carries value, and is treated as a cap dump in this situation to make the numbers work. The Canucks are looking for a right handed 3C, a left handed 33 year old isn't an asset to them.

To the Canucks, I'd assume the difference between Fiala and Miller, plus taking Eller back would be Lapierre. If you kept Eller, it would probably look more like Lapierre+Iorio+2nd for Miller.</div></div>

<div class="quote"><div class="quote_t">Quoting: <b>Prime_Jimbo</b></div><div>This is certainly a worry for Allvin. That deal definitely put perspective out there. I imagine a first, prospect and roster player isn't out of the question. Two prospect is probably unlikely. Pearson alone wouldn't get Iorio or Lapierre. But then again, maybe JT stays looking at the Fiala contract. Maybe he gets 8m and stays and I'd be good with that. Though Fiala had one big year and JT has had a few now.

Part of this deal was freeing up even more cap space for Caps to make even more moves if they wanted to shed Eller but definitely not an issue.</div></div>

I don't see Eller as a cap dump, it's just that the Caps would be better off trading him to open up 3C for McMichael and gambling on McMichael's upside. I'd peg his value at about a 3rd (Sabres fans generally like the idea of Eller for their '22 3rd for example). Even with two bouts of Covid slowing him down this year he was still a 30 point 3C who played in all situations, 3.5M for a guy like that is pretty reasonable. The Caps just need to swing for the fences with McMichael rather than sticking with a known quantity in Eller. Including him in a Miller trade seems like it makes sense since Eller could at least take some of Miller's old responsibilities and then be flipped for a pick at the deadline.

(Sidenote: Is the handedness of your 3C really a major concern? Looking at the list of right-handed UFA centers the only one I'd say is a 3C is Sam Gagner, so your options are pretty limited if that's a deal breaker.)
Forum: Armchair-GM29 juin 2022 à 19 h 5
Sujet: Maybe too many players but who knows
<div class="quote"><div class="quote_t">Quoting: <b>YesThisIsFlo</b></div><div>You could take out Jensen and Pearson, but I doubt the Canucks would be willing to downgrade to a 2nd.

Maybe take the players out and Canucks add a 3rd</div></div>

Going off of the Fiala trade that seems like a big overpay. The 19 OA and Faber is roughly equivalent to the 20 OA and Iorio (imo Iorio's the more valuable prospect but let's just call it even). I think Miller's more valuable than Fiala, but is the difference equal to Eller + Lapierre? In retrospect even the Eller+Lapierre+Iorio+2nd package I said was the most I'd do seems too heavy. Maybe a team that's hard up against the cap will blow the Canucks away with an offer for Miller at 50%, but the Caps have plenty of room to pivot to trading or signing for a more expensive option if the Canucks are asking for the moon.
Forum: Armchair-GM29 juin 2022 à 18 h 5
Sujet: In light of the Fiala deal
<div class="quote"><div class="quote_t">Quoting: <b>qc14</b></div><div>I was thinking the other direction in that Fiala is more valuable but Iorio is a slightly worse prospect lol. Either way, I agree on it calming down the proposals on here. People need to realize that in the NHL bad to mediocre players will return just as much as good to incredible players do. Everyone either returns a 1st and a prospect or a 4th and a 6th.</div></div>

I'm not a prospects expert by any means, but I think Iorio raised his stock significantly with his D+1 season while Faber's D+1 and D+2 just confirmed worries that his offensive upside is extremely limited. Iorio's ceiling with his size and skill is significantly higher than Faber's. Teams see a mobile 6'3 RHD with a cannon of a shot and they start drooling.

As for Miller vs Fiala, production is similar but with an edge to Miller, and Miller plays the more valuable position and doesn't come with the dreaded "undersized player who doesn't produce in the playoffs" label. The three year age difference works in Fiala's favor, but that's about it.