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Kalopsia

Membre depuis
27 jun 2018
Équipe préférée
Capitals de Washington
Messages dans les forums
284
Messages par jour
0,3
Sujets de discussion
7
Forum: Armchair-GM14 oct 2020 à 16 h 04
Forum: Armchair-GM14 oct 2020 à 15 h 47
Forum: Armchair-GM14 oct 2020 à 15 h 39
Forum: Armchair-GM11 oct 2020 à 0 h 20
<div class="quote"><div class="quote_t">Quoting: <b>Capitalfail67</b></div><div>Ham : 49.19CF% 47.92FF% 48.55 xGF% Not signed yet
Brodie: 52.07CF% 51.03FF% 52.69xGF% 5m aav x 4 years
Tanev: 46.47CF% 47.43FF% 46.88xGF% 4.5m aavx 4years
Barie: 53.27 CF% 51.75FF% 50.89xGF% not signed yet But Leaf fans hated him
Schultz: 49.77CF% 51.20FF% 50.88xGF% 4m aav x 2 years (low term) </div></div>

Yeah, some of those guys are a bit more expensive (Barrie came in at 1x3.75M though and I'd take that over Schultz for 2x4M any day), but the Caps are gonna have to move someone to make room right now regardless, so an extra 0.5-1M doesn't make a huge difference. The extra term's not a huge deal either. Whether a guy signs for 2 years or 4, he's gonna be on the books when the Caps have their cap crunch next offseason. If adding two more years lowers the AAV, why not do it? Especially since the Caps don't have any prospects remotely close to the NHL on the right side.

<div class="quote"><div class="quote_t">Quote:</div> Attmpt % Scoring chances % high danger % expected goals %
with JJ 44.5 44.4 36.2 41.6
W/o JJ 51.2 49. 52.7 53.2</div>

Here's Gudas from last season with similar statistics.

FF% SCF% HDCF% xGF%
with Kempny 44.97 49.62 38.98 42.71
W/o Kempny 51.23 50.30 51.08 52.20

Now either Kempny's poor play was hiding that Gudas is actually an offensive defenseman, or taking these numbers without any context isn't actually all that informative.

<div class="quote"><div class="quote_t">Quote:</div> Penguins Powerplay ranked 8th overall last year.... seems like if he's playing 3 minutes a night (AND ISNT GOOD) on the powerplay he must be doing something to help.... or that 8th for be a lot worse. MAYBE bc the penguins dont run the same type of powerplay as the capitals he isnt getting the 1-2 touch before the puck goes into the net?</div>

Or they had no one else put there. Only other righty in their lineup was rookie John Marino, and if you check out his college stats it's clear he's not an offensive defenseman. Interestingly, after Schultz came back from his knee injury in December he dropped from 3 minutes a night pre-injury to 2 and a half, while Marino went up from 0:23 to 1:11, so it seems like the Pens were losing faith in Schultz. Anyway, Schultz had plenty of PP points his two full years in Pittsburgh prior to shattering his ankle, so I don't think you can blame the scheme.

<div class="quote"><div class="quote_t">Quote:</div> Offersheet? okay then we lose draft picks and overpay a player.... that generally how offer sheets work you overpay a player... not smart. Schultz made the most sense and we didnt have to give up any assets or risk 4 years on a 30+ year old player</div>

Ordinarily I'm not in favor of offer sheets, but this is a special situation. Tampa has no room for their three big RFAs, all their expensive contracts have full NTCs and NMCs, and they couldn't even dump Tyler Johnson by waiving him. If the Caps got Cernak to sign an offer sheet at around 4M per year, there would've been basically no way for Tampa to match it without losing both Sergachev and Cirelli, and the compensation would've been just the 2021 2nd. That was my plan A for this offseason.
Forum: Armchair-GM 9 oct 2020 à 22 h 33
<div class="quote"><div class="quote_t">Quoting: <b>Capitalfail67</b></div><div>Seems dramatic. How would you like them to address the defense ? I’m honestly curious. Do you consider Petterson a good defenseman? Do you know Schultz numbers away from JJ vs W him? Spoiler alert his numbers are WAY better without him. Capitals needed mobile Dmen and they went with Schultz. Hardly the same as Forsberg. Who at the time we traded for a 50 point player lol. Forsberg 2 years later turned into a great NHL player. Lmfao watch him be amazing next year. People love to complain.</div></div>

I'm honestly a pretty big BMac fan, and I've supported most of his moves. There was always some discernible logic to them. I'm still high on Panik, Hagelin, and Jensen even though those have had mixed results. I don't complain for the sake of complaining, this move's just flat out bad. Schultz was never good defensively, and since his injury he's not good offensively either. He had 12 points in 46 games while getting almost 3 minutes a night on a power play with Crosby and Malkin for ****'s sake! How is that even possible? If you don't care about points, the advanced stats community hates him too.

Evolving Wild: <a href="https://twitter.com/EvolvingHockey/status/1314659487446437889" rel="nofollow noreferrer noopener" target="_blank">"At a 2-year term, we projected $3 million. Schultz in an offensive defenseman who hasn't played much over the last two seasons and has been below replacement level in those minutes."</a>

Micah Blake McCurdy: <a href="https://twitter.com/IneffectiveMath/status/1314656309271310337" rel="nofollow noreferrer noopener" target="_blank">"Justin Schultz (2x4m with Washington) is simply inexplicable to me."</a>

The quarter of a season he played with Johnson pulls his numbers down, but not so much that the conclusion changes. And the worst part is, according to Pens fans he actually got <em>worse</em> as the season went on, which doesn't inspire any confidence in the idea that he just needs to fully heal from the ankle injury. The fact that his ice time dropped by about a minute in the playoffs and they dumped him with Johnson on the 3rd pairing seems to indicate the Pens realized he was getting worse too.

As for what I'd have done instead, there are a ton of better options available in FA (Vatanen, Tanev, Hamonic, Barrie, Brodie), rumored to be available for trade (Savard, Weegar, Goligoski, Demers, Larsson), or there for the taking via offer sheet (Cernak). I'd much rather have a defensively stable 2RD that can let Orlov join the rush more and play more aggressively and a lot of the guys I named are in that vein, but if the Caps were dead set on pairing Orlov with another puck-mover then Vatanen, Barrie, and Goligoski (with salary retention) all would've been better choices. Maybe a bit more expensive, but they're gonna have to dump salary anyway to fit Schultz so why not spend a bit more to get a guy that's <em>actually</em> good instead of one that you hope might maybe be good again if he can regain the form he had two years ago before he shattered his ankle?
Forum: Armchair-GM 9 oct 2020 à 20 h 57
I dunno why so many people are using Johnson as an excuse for Schultz being awful this year. <a href="https://www.naturalstattrick.com/playerreport.php?fromseason=20192020&amp;thruseason=20192020&amp;playerid=8474602&amp;sit=5v5&amp;stype=2&amp;stdoi=oi&amp;rate=n&amp;v=t" rel="nofollow noreferrer noopener" target="_blank">He was mostly with Pettersson, and spent less than a quarter of the year with Johnson.</a> Counting on a guy to return to bounce back after a poor season due to a terrible leg injury didn't work with Kempny, so choosing to make that gamble again with Schultz, and paying such a high price to do so, makes no sense to me at all.

<div class="quote"><div class="quote_t">Quoting: <b>CrossFireX33</b></div><div>Honestly idk why people don't like it. Even if he does crash and burn its only a 2 year contract</div></div>

If he crashes and burns they have to either buy him out or pay someone to take his contract, cause the Caps have a huge impending cap crunch next offseason when they'll have 16M to re-sign Ovie, Vrana, and Samsonov.

<div class="quote"><div class="quote_t">Quoting: <b>Capitalfail67</b></div><div>I hope they move Jensen bc I like siegs and Fehevary better... or Hags. I really like Panik and he had a great finish to the season</div></div>

God, I really hope they don't dump Jensen. There's a major chance the Orlov-Schultz pairing is a sieve, and I want them to have the alternative of swapping Jensen with Schultz so they don't just keep beating their heads against a wall hoping Schultz's ankle magically returns to its pre-shattered state. If they move Jensen they'll also only have one RHD left who can PK (cause Schultz sure as hell won't see any PK time), and dumping a whole lot of PK time on Carlson's plate when he's already playing nearly 25 minutes a night and now on the wrong side of 30 is not a great idea.

<div class="quote"><div class="quote_t">Quoting: <b>csick</b></div><div>I guarantee you Pittsburgh is in a worse spot. 2 years for Schultz is very safe. Worst case he gets moved next summer with 1 year left if it doesn’t work out. Gudbranson was moved</div></div>

Gudbranson turned things around in Anaheim and rehabilitated his value. If the Caps are moving Schultz because he didn't work out, it'll mean he's now had three straight bad seasons and there won't be anyone left who's in denial about the shattered ankle permanently gimping him. They'll have to buy him out or pay a team to take his contract at that point.
Forum: Armchair-GM 9 oct 2020 à 19 h 57
Forum: Armchair-GM 9 oct 2020 à 19 h 20
Forum: Armchair-GM 6 oct 2020 à 20 h 02
<div class="quote"><div class="quote_t">Quoting: <b>Eli</b></div><div>Tampa played lots of overtime. They had three guys average over 22 minutes a game. Cernak was a distant 4th, just ahead of Shattenkirk. Still good, but WSH could sign Shattenkirk cheaper and keep Siegenthaler and a 1st. <a href="http://www.nhl.com/stats/skaters?report=timeonice&amp;reportType=season&amp;seasonFrom=20192020&amp;seasonTo=20192020&amp;gameType=3&amp;position=D&amp;playerPlayedFor=franchise.31&amp;filter=gamesPlayed,gte,1&amp;sort=timeOnIce&amp;page=0&amp;pageSize=100" rel="nofollow noreferrer noopener" target="_blank">http://www.nhl.com/stats/skaters?report=timeonice&amp;reportType=season&amp;seasonFrom=20192020&amp;seasonTo=20192020&amp;gameType=3&amp;position=D&amp;playerPlayedFor=franchise.31&amp;filter=gamesPlayed,gte,1&amp;sort=timeOnIce&amp;page=0&amp;pageSize=100</a>

When most people say sheltered minutes, they mean a high percentage of offensive zone starts. Siegenthaler had 49%, and finished with his side taking as many shots for as they gave up against: <a href="http://www.nhl.com/stats/skaters?report=percentages&amp;reportType=season&amp;seasonFrom=20192020&amp;seasonTo=20192020&amp;gameType=2&amp;position=D&amp;playerPlayedFor=franchise.24&amp;filter=gamesPlayed,gte,1&amp;sort=zoneStartPct5v5&amp;page=0&amp;pageSize=100" rel="nofollow noreferrer noopener" target="_blank">http://www.nhl.com/stats/skaters?report=percentages&amp;reportType=season&amp;seasonFrom=20192020&amp;seasonTo=20192020&amp;gameType=2&amp;position=D&amp;playerPlayedFor=franchise.24&amp;filter=gamesPlayed,gte,1&amp;sort=zoneStartPct5v5&amp;page=0&amp;pageSize=100</a>

Cernak was at 47.4 and 49. He is slightly, slightly better, maybe. But since he played with a great defenseman, and Siegenthaler didn't, I have my doubts that he's as good as Siegenthaler. There are players that end up at 40 and 50, without playing next to a $7M defensive ace.</div></div>

I'm not referring to zone starts, I'm going by the quality of competition metric used on PuckIQ. They group players into Elite, Middle, and "Gritensity," and then use the difference between the percentage of ice time a player gets against elite players and the percentage they get against gritensity players to quantify usage. Here's the <a href="http://www.puckiq.com/woodmoney?season=20192020&amp;positions=d&amp;team=tbl&amp;group_by=player_season_team&amp;min_toi=200" rel="nofollow noreferrer noopener" target="_blank">Lightning</a>, and here's the <a href="http://www.puckiq.com/woodmoney?season=20192020&amp;positions=d&amp;team=wsh&amp;group_by=player_season_team&amp;min_toi=200" rel="nofollow noreferrer noopener" target="_blank">Caps</a>. You can see pretty clearly that Cernak and McDonagh got the tough assignments for Tampa, while Siegs and Gudas were being heavily sheltered by the Caps. If the Caps thought Siegs was capable of playing the sort of minutes Cernak did, they'd pair him with Carlson instead of re-signing Dillon. Siegs is a good PKer, but his skating and play with the puck hold him back at ES. Cernak is an even better PKer (<a href="http://www.nhl.com/stats/skaters?report=penaltykill&amp;reportType=season&amp;seasonFrom=20182019&amp;seasonTo=20192020&amp;gameType=2&amp;position=D&amp;filter=shTimeOnIce,gte,200&amp;sort=a_ppGoalsAgainstPer60&amp;page=0&amp;pageSize=50" rel="nofollow noreferrer noopener" target="_blank">only Jensen has a better GA/60 on the PK than Cernak over the last two years, min. 200 minutes on the PK</a>), and can be trusted to take tough assignments at ES as well. If Siegs reaches his <em>absolute ceiling,</em> he'll be Cernak. I don't want to wait and hope that that happens.
Forum: Armchair-GM 6 oct 2020 à 19 h 28
Forum: Armchair-GM 4 oct 2020 à 13 h 11