4.5M AAV for Barashev? A future 1st for Raddysh? No thanks. Horrid use of assets.

CHI does the Raddysh deal but probably isn't interested in sending picks out right now, re: the other proposed swap.

Wrong. Barbashev is young-ish, 27 years old, has NINE points in 12 playoff games. He's a big physical forward who can play both wing, center and can slot anywhere in the top nine.

Raddysh is a YOUNG AND CHEAP forward who can score 20G.

So yeah, wrong.

Yeah, like I said, it's any team looking for depth.

I don't think Granlund needs a 2nd to move. He is a capable 3rd liner, just overpaid by about 2MM

Barbashev:
Barbashev's defense is awful. He's still a good player, but that means that his usefulness as a center is minimal and better options are available.
I don't think Compher would cost much more than Barbashev would. He's a fantastic defensive player, also plays center and wing, and had more points this year.

Raddysh:
The Raddysh JFresh card is from the '22 deadline, so Raddysh is better than this, but I'm still not parting with significant assets for him.
And Chicago is absolutely barren. Someone has to score, and Raddysh played top 6 minutes there. He comes here in a lesser role, and he's not going to score like that.
Giving up a 1st for him reminds me of the Granlund trade.

@haymaker26

I definitely hold jfresh's cards in high regard, but they should still be used in tandem with real results and context.

Raddysh - put up 20G playing on a TERRIBLE Chicago team. This was his first full season, so there are some learning curves away from the puck, but he obviously plays a responsible game, he's a big body and has some grit to his game. If the goal, as many pens fans complain about, is to get younger then this is that opportunity. He's also making league min. That doesn't come cheap.

Barbashev - Not bringing him in for this two-way play. First, he's versatile. He can play wing and center. Last year put up 26G and 60 points. No matter what way you slice it, that's very good. This year he scored 16G and 45 points playing most of the year on a very bad Blues team. Now? He's killing it in the playoffs and if you don't think playoff performance is important, than I feel bad for you. He's also big, strong, physical and has decent wheels. I suggest you look deeper at JFresh's card there. He's not a defensive player and doesn't need to be.

So $4.5M for a guy who can put up 20G, decent finishing skills, can play W & C, big, strong, physical and above average speed? I'd say that's a very fair price.

I did add context on top of analytics.

Raddysh - I don't think how bad Chicago is works in his favor. On a team that bad, they won't just get shut out all the time. Someone has to score, and Raddysh was in a large enough role to be the guy to do it. Lowering his role is going to hurt his point total enough that Chicago will get a lot more out of it than we will.
Tanner Jeannot is actually a decent comparison: a bit old for their first full season, but has a solid scoring touch and an edge to his game. But not a guy you give up a first for and win that trade.

Barbashev - You asked for context, so here's some: Barbashev has spent his time in Vegas on the first line with Eichel and Marchessault. His point production will also come down with less ice time and worse linemates. I admit, I'm biased towards 2-way players usually. But that's kinda what we need on our 3rd line right now. McGinn-Carter-Kapanen was terrible defensively and watching it was agony. The current 3rd line still isn't great. Even now, Poehling, Nylander, Granlund isn't great in that regard. Our 3rd line next year needs to not get caved in. I'm not sure ERod and Raddysh can make up for Barbashev being a pylon. Also, playing center generally comes with an increased defensive responsibility. Barbashev could theoretically play center, but he really shouldn't be.
My point wasn't "Barbashev isn't worth that", my point is "we can get players that fit our need better"

Don't get me wrong, both are good players who would make the Penguins better. But we're paying too much for Raddysh and playing Barbashev in a role that won't maximize the value we can get out of him.

Honestly, this is one of the better Pens teams I've seen put together here. I just think we can do better without spending as much in the way of good futures.

Free agency is tough this year. It's a pretty thin crop of quality forwards.

I'm not sure who would be better than Barbashev for that price-range. I understand your concern in regards to him defensively, but ERod is very solid defensively and Raddysh putting up those defensive numbers on a black hole team? I think it can work. Not that I'm drawing exact apples to apples, but HBK. Bones and Hags were good defensively and Phil is an absolute defensive void. Part of the rationale behind Barbashev is his versatility and ability to slot all over the lineup. And who's to say if Sully was given this roster that Barbashev would be on the third. The way he shuffles, I'm sure we'd see Barbashev with Geno at some point.

Guys like Raddysh, young players on ELCs who score 20G? That's gonna come at a premium. I get you think we can get more, but if you really dig around with how we could use that 1st, you're going to be hard-set to find young ELC players available like him. This lineup gives us a lot of good looks, we get a little younger, have a better defense and solid goaltending.

I'm not saying this is the only way to spend top assets, but I think this is a balanced lineup that allows us cap freedom moving forward and a few contracts we could move if we needed to make room.

I absolutely get the rationale, and like I fully approve of the thought process here.

I'm not convinced we even should use a 1st unless it's for a player like Saros/Ullmark that we'd have a really hard time saying no to. We've got next to nothing in the way of futures, and the window's about to shut. Obviously we can't do a lot of significant buying and replenishing the prospect pool at the same time, but I think the players up for grabs that the Pens should be willing to break the bank for are few and far in between.

My thought process for a top 6 forward is this:
How much better than DeSmith would Adin Hill actually be? He's a decent goalie, but DeSmith is a solid backup more often than not. We keep DeSmith over him, that's another $1.2M than can be allocated elsewhere. Then potentially give a couple games to Lindberg and/or Blomqvist, I could see one of them being ready for the backup role when DeSmith's contract expires.
I could see JT Compher somewhere in the ballpark of $5.5-5.75M. Yeah, we'd be missing out on a bit of Barbashev's grit. But Compher, like Barbashev, can play up and down the lineup and at both wing and center, had similar production despite the cataclysmic amount of injuries Colorado faced, and is leaps and bounds better defensively.

I thought about Compher and I've used him in a few AGMs, but my concern on player like him is he's a prime candidate for overpayment because of how much he's played at C and I won't be shocked to see COL move some players to keep him. I agree with your price assessment, but I won't be shocked to see him get over $6M. Now, I may be undercutting what ERod will garner because of the thin market, but I couldn't see him getting more $3M.

The thing with DeSmith is he's actually a solid back-up, but I think we're at a point where when it comes to goal, they're going to fresh-start that position entirely. Is Hill much better than DeSmith? Yes, I think so. You look at this body of work and the numbers he's put up on the teams he's played on. I think he's one of those goalies that for some reason slipped through cracks and is now having his moment to shine. Plus, he's still young-ish and we don't know where has to go from here. He's killing it in the playoffs right now and an Ullmark/Hill tandem could be lights out. Plus, he's also one of those contracts that I view as currency if we need to move a contract.

Lindberg went back overseas and Blomqvist is still a good two years away. He's 21 and just going to start his first full season in the AHL. Chances are he's not getting any call-ups this season and I see the Pens signing another Tokarski-type to be that 3rd G.

I don't disagree on your wanting to save a 1st for someone like Hellebyuck or Saros and trust me, that would be my preference as well, but there's going to be a massive bidding war and goaltending is not something the Pens can afford to wait out. Saros will surely take more than one 1st, plus other assets. Hellebyuck, probably a 1st +2nd or top prospect and unless the Pens discuss a workable extension prior, I don't think they should spend a 1st rounder on a rental goalie. Ullmark is a very solid goalie and despite the results in the playoffs, he gives you what a team needs. Boston didn't lose because of goaltending IMO. It didn't necessarily help, but they just played very mediocre hocky. That Boston trade isn't just about Ullmark though. Grzelyck is a solid affordable defender and would be a good balance for Petry.

Fair enough points on Compher and the goalies. I had forgotten Lindberg left. Blomqvist, we'll see how far off he is. His time in Liiga was stellar. He could translate pretty well to the AHL this year.

I'm not entirely sold on Hill. I think he's arguably the best UFA option other than Jarry (who I still have a lot of faith in, but that's tangential), but that's not really saying all that much.
This year, Hill had a .915 SV% and (via MoneyPuck) a 0.9 GSAx in 27 games, which is the most he's played in a season. DeSmith's .905 SV% is the lowest of his career, but via MoneyPuck had saved 2.9 GSAx in 38 games. At 5v5, DeSmith's GSAx went up, and Hill's went down. If we instead look at evolving-hockey, the story is the same: DeSmith's GSAx was superior, and the gap at 5v5 was wider.
Hill has been a pretty good goalie in the playoffs and that's going to help his case a lot, but I'm genuinely not sold on him being a significant upgrade to DeSmith.

I'd be pretty happy with either of them as a backup, and maybe I'd end up being wrong. But Hill would take up quite a bit of wiggle room elsewhere over DeSmith.