Habs decline, Harris = Durzi in therm of value imo and a 3rd isnt enough for us to take on peterson's contract

Only Kings ACGM I found was giving him to the Hawks (obviously) for a 2nd. They will have a very hard time dumping that contract agreed. Durzi is overrated but I'm bridging the gap between Kings fans delusion (worth Hutson and a 1st) and reality as best I can.

No, this still doesn't bridge the gap. As was said above Durzi for Harris is fair. To take the 5 mil x 2 years at least a 1st from the kings and Allen have to be added. Something like Durzi + Peterson + the Kings 2024 1st for Allen + Harris makes sense, the problem is I don't think the Kings want to do it

I don't think he's leaving anymore after we finally won a round but for that kind of money I'm not sure it'd even be smart for the Leafs to match it unless the cap goes up a bunch that's crazy money

There are maybe 2-3 teams that can offer that kind of money in 2024 with the hard cap and as Matthews likes selling his soul for betting commercials and spittin chiclets ads. Something tells me, he'd love HELL-A



Like I said bridging the gap. I agree with you. Most deals arent fair though and leverage comes into play.

think the money mongering Matthews stuff is grossly overdone. Every top player does those ads, you see how many McDavid is in? The Leafs are finally building towards something in the playoffs whether its this year or later, I think he recognizes the opportunity he has to go down as the true savior of a franchise like this. Can you imagine the lifetime ad deals he could nab if he took this team to the promised land? He'd be making unreasonably large sums of money well beyond his playing days. Even if he doesn't and he just stays a career Leaf and goes on a run or two, he'd be making even more bank in ads than he is now which is kinda inconceivable lol.

Actions always speak louder than words. Everything Matthews has done screams look at me and give me all the cash! How do the Leafs even come close this offer? I dont see it happening unless they trade Marner. The money in Toronto with sponsorships is meaningless as the hard cap needs to be considered.

I think Matthews will sign in Arizona.

maybe so but suppose he even leaves a couple mil on the table to sign with the Leafs, I guess what I'm getting at is the value he can generate off the ice here far far exceeds what he could get in that regard anywhere else. And to stay where he's been the last 7 years with the guys he's NHL-wise grown up with to try to win with them and go down as the greatest player, franchise saviour, in Leafs history would have to be pretty darn hard to leave.

I don't think he's purely a money guy - he'll get what he deserves, no question about that - but even if he is, the financial reasons to stay here even if it means you take a relatively small AAV hit are massive

I understand the idea but Habs will keep their youngster for at least another season.

Its far too embarrassing at this point to play there. The guy isnt going to be sticking out his ears to the university crowd. I equate it to Larry Walker whom loved being an Expos player but was practically forced out as the teams finances were a mess.

if he leaves I'd be shocked if that's where it is to be honest. Most plausible would be LA with Kopitar coming off the books the same year, still close to home, massive city/market, etc. But not sure why Matthews would leave a contender in the biggest hockey market in the world for a basement team in a college barn that can barely afford a rink, let alone the contract it'd take to convince him to go to that situation.

I see three paths (in order of likelihood, but 1/2 are very close in likelihood)
1) Career Leaf
2) Mostly career Leaf then goes to Arizona in his mid/late 30s
3) Goes to LA, then tails of to Arizona in his mid/late 30s

I agree with everything you said but..

I see three paths (in order of likelihood, but 1/2 are very close in likelihood)
1) Kings player
2) Kings player
3) Kings player

ok don't have a reasonable discussion then lol

Absolute floor is a 50% chance he stays a Leaf, I'd value it at more like 70% now that we won a round. Thought it was around 50% before the series.

70% Toronto, 20% LA, 5% Arizona, 5% other is where I'd put the odds

Im simply kidding with a little levity lol

Answer me this. How do they fit in Matthews cap hit, lets say, he takes a 2m discount because of 'sponsorships' Thats 15.3M as he wil be looking for the max 20% at 17.3M in this cap structure.

Either Marner nees to go? Local hero
Tavares? Impossible to move, most likely, two years older and a dump

Or, they trade Nylander this offseason.

They'll need to choose soon.

well I mean for starters they don't have to trade Willy - if Matthews extends this summer I think it becomes a lot more acceptable to use him as an own rental if he ends up leaving. Then all you need to do is whether the cap storm for one season - after that Tavares expires and would extend at a major discount, you use his money to extend Knies and give Marner his raise, and then you're not as cap stringent.

Second, we've never seen a team offer a player the max - ik how special Matthews is but like think even Tavares - he signed in his prime and he was pretty comfortably a top 5 C during his Isles days, the max he was reportedly offered was around 13M which is a good chunk of change less than the maximium. NHL GMs understand that one player can't win you everything and you need money to build around them.

I think Matthews would see offers ranging from 13M to 16M. I think the Leafs would be more in the 13-14.5M range. And I think that suppose he even leaves 3M per year * 8 years = 24M on the table, staying a career Leaf he would make waaayyy more than that in net difference in lifetime sponsorship/ad/etc money in Toronto vs. any other plausible Matthews destination.

My guess would be he signs for +/- 0.75 of 14M in Toronto, with actual guess being probably 13.75M

Zero chance he signs under 14M.

And you can quote me on that. McDavid took a discount because the guy is a hockey nerd. Lives in a house with white walls and a heated driveway with a hockey net in his garage. Something tells me Matthews isnt the same type. The huge Mexican population in LA. I dont think 3M difference in sponsorships will happen in Toronto with every company cutting back. That is a big reason sportsnet is dropping programming like Tim&Friends while they are ALL IN on betting ads. Sponsorships arent close to what they are before the pandemic.

Even if not the max deal I have my doubts, just cause it hasnt been done gives no credence that it NEVER will be done.

Hockey players are already well UNDERPAID with the hard cap. Matthews isnt doing the Leaf any favours in all likelihood. I know the adrenaline is running high i Toronto right now but it's 95% chance he goes for all the money from what I've seen and heard.

I don’t see why the habs would take a huge downgrade and a horrible contract for only a 3rd

MTL Accepts

Sean Durzi > Jordan Harris

Harris is a Defensive D and your Josh Gorges style Leader, Shot Blocker and overall Shutdown guy. We Value him.
Sean Durzi is your Upgraded Jeff Petry with less consistency issues and his play doesnt Dip if he doesnt have 1/3 specific players beside him.

Durzi is also Suzuki's long time Best Friend and former Teammate where they were such an Offensive PP threat that Guelph Storm traded for Durzi after Acquiring Suzuki a month earlier.
They both Dominated the Power Play on their new teams Emerging a Leaders taking them all the way to a Memorial Cup Final.
When Suzuki was Drafted and suppose to go do his interviews for the Draft day wrap up he stayed with his friend to console him after dropping out of the 1st round unexpectedly.
He stayed with him until he was taken deep into the 2nd round where they did their first interview together and it was the same vibes you get from Suzuki/Caufield.

IF MTL can bring him in then im cool with it.
That said if Peterson come over too we want Jack Hughes Rights
His chemistry with Harris and Struble as well as being coached by MSL before makes him ideal longterm

Man when did everyone finally start showing Harris respect?
I mean Durzi was forced to play his off side , last playoffs in Roy's and Doughty's spot and produced the same as they did this year.
Durzi is just taking all the heat for Roy who cost them 2 games not covering his man defensively
If you tossed Roy out and put Durzi on his natural side he'd succeed

Habs decline in my opinion...

a) Hughes pretty much recruited Harris himself, when it looked like he wouldn't sign with Montreal out of college. They know each other pretty well, and I really don't see Hughes trading Harris just a year later, unless Harris ask to play in the US.

b) While Durzi is a nice piece overall, he's not what the Habs need on the right side of their defense. Looking ahead, Habs are counting on Mailloux and Barron, two offensively-minded / PP QB defenseman. I could see them trying to add another RHD, but probably more of the "two-way" type.

c) With Primeau having to go through waivers next year, the Habs aren't looking to add another goaltender to the mix, unless it's an upgrade as a starter...something Petersen isn't. And with two more years to his $5.0m per contract, it would take a lot more than a 3rd to convince Hughes to take on that contract. Monahan, on a expiring contract, came with a 1st. Hughes isn't handcuffing himself with Petersen's contract unless it's worth it.

I agree with all this but again. Hughes isnt going to make Harris an untouchable. They have a ton of these puck movers on the left side and Harris cap certainty is a HUGE asset to a team with that 1.4M. Durzi definitely has warts as I addressed but RHD have been valued much higher than LHD in recent years.

I also like taking the risk on Petersn with a year left. Just look at the cap here for LA they cant sign Kopitar @37, Roy and Gavrikov walk. Many teams wont be able to fit in Petersen much like Monahan this past offseason. The Habs need to make these types of swings. Look what the Leafs got in Samsonov that just outdueled Vasilevskiy. Anyone could have signed Sammy this offseason! Primeau/Allen, one wont be there in 2 years as this is for 2024 acgm. They cant go into next year with 3 goalies as Monty is staying. I much rather they dont spend assets on goalies but find them like they found Monty and maybe Petersen with an added asset for taking the goalie's money.



The Hawks took Tyler Johnson's money at 5M AAV plus term for the 52nd overall. Its within reason for a 1year term. Goalies are always weird.. You have to roll the dice.

Oh absolutely !

I just don't think adding a $5.0m caphit, for the next TWO seasons, on a position where we already have a surplus...only to get a 3rd round pick would be a nice use of the caproom we have. Make it a 1st (like the Monahan deal), and I'm considering it. Otherwise, I'll pass and wait for a better opportunity. Even if you trade Primeau (and I think we will), moving Allen could prove to be a lot harder...and you would need to do that, this summer, in order to fit Petersen in.

Additionnal note: I just realized this ACGM is for the 2024-25 season. In which case, the Habs contract structure could be very different (Caufield's extension, Dubois acquisition, Barron and Xhekaj getting raises as RFA, Montembeault being a UFA, etc.)

Its only a year term. You're forgetting that I value Durzi higher than Harris. I think this deal easily suits both teams needs. Could the Habs get better than Durzi and a 3rd for a cap dump and a defenseman they value but DONT NEED. Sure.

PS Very funny how this turned into a Habs ACGM after I was trying to fit in Matthews salary. That guy is definitely going to LA the more I think about it. Closer to home, become the next Gretzky in LA that helps build the game among the Latino community.
These guys love legacy, When you are that rich and famous, all you think about is being immortal. Matthews just got the Leafs over the hump. Nothing left to do! He's going to HELL-A and hes going to get paid what he deserves when the hard cap really makes 50% of hockey players angry. its kinda delusional to think that Matthews gives the Leafs a discount when 17.3M is already a discount because of the hard cap. He should be well over 20M

AHAHAHA ! To be perfectly honest, I didn't even see that part. I tend to focus a lot more on things related to the Habs, as it's sometimes hard to get a clear view of other teams' needs, financial structure and projection. But yeah, if Matthews decides to move on from Toronto, I could see the appeal of LA.