Meier wo extension at TDL - QO outlook worst case - CapFriendly

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Meier wo extension at TDL - QO outlook worst case

Créé par: vikhodush

Équipe: 2023-24 Hurricanes de la Caroline

Date de création initiale: 15 févr. 2023

Publié: 15 févr. 2023

Mode - plafond salarial: Basique

Description

Purpose of this is to look at worst case if the Canes went after Timo without extension talks happening as part of the initial trade. Wanted to see what Timo's QO would look like if they couldn't strike a long-term extension and didn't want to trade him either. I think this proves it's easily workable, although obviously not ideal.

The following year (2 years really) are where things could get trickier as a lot of core guys are due raises, but I still think the Canes maintain a ton of flexibility and can make it work. In two years you'd need (conservative estimates, let me know if you feel differently):

Aho + 2m, Necas + 4m, Jarvis +3m (bridge deal), Pesce +3m, Skjei +2m, Chat +2m = 16m for important pieces.

You'll have an extra 5m from the cap, 1.8m from Marty, 5.4m if you let Turbo walk = a little over 12m. If they were to keep Meier somehow long term after that (would be weird if he doesn't agree to a long-term deal before QO but does the following season), you'd probably get 1-1.5m AAV savings there. So we'd probably need to let somebody else like Skjei go which would be fine if Nikishin actually does come over in 2 years. Or, you could use Meier's 10m and now you have 22m, or 17m if you extend Turbo at a similar rate instead.

So it seems like there are plenty of options whether Timo extends or signs a QO with us both next year and when raises are due for our core. We could also trade him during offseason to recoup some of the assets we spent on him.

Let me know if I missed anything in my breakdown above or didn't factor something in properly. Was just an exercise to see how this would play out because I'm honestly bored out of my mind waiting for something to go down :)

Signatures de joueurs autonomes

RFA		ANS	CAP HIT
Meier, Timo		1	10 000 000 $

UFA	ANS	CAP HIT
Fast, Jesper	2	2 500 000 $
Staal, Jordan	2	2 500 000 $
Varlamov, Semyon	2	3 500 000 $
Gostisbehere, Shayne	2	3 000 000 $
Pacioretty, Max	1	1 000 000 $
Barbashev, Ivan	2	2 750 000 $
De Haan, Calvin	1	850 000 $

Transactions

CAR

Meier, Timo [Droits de RFA]

Détails additionnels:

No retention, no extension talks as part of the deal = lesser return

SJS

Morrow, Scott [Liste de réserve]
Choix de 1e ronde en 2023 (CAR)
Choix de 2e ronde en 2024 (PHI)

Repêchage	1e ronde	2e ronde	3e ronde	4e ronde	5e ronde	6e ronde	7e ronde
2023
2024
2025

FORMATION

VUE À LONG TERME

INTÉGRÉ

TEXTE INTÉGRÉ

TAILLE DE LA FORMATION	PLAFOND SALARIAL	CAP HIT	EXCÉDENTS	BONIS	ESPACE SOUS LE PLAFOND SALARIAL
23	83 500 000 $	82 979 417 $	450 000 $	500 000 $	520 583 $

Formation

Ailier gauche	Centre	Ailier droit
Meier, Timo 10 000 000 $10 000 000 $ AG, AD UFA - 8	Aho, Sebastian 8 460 250 $8 460 250 $ C UFA - 1	Teräväinen, Teuvo 5 400 000 $5 400 000 $ AG, AD M-NTC UFA - 1
Svechnikov, Andrei 7 750 000 $7 750 000 $ AG, AD UFA - 6	Necas, Martin 3 000 000 $3 000 000 $ AD RFA - 1	Jarvis, Seth 894 167 $894 167 $ (500 000 $$500K) AD RFA - 1
Pacioretty, Max 1 000 000 $1 000 000 $ AG UFA - 1	Kotkaniemi, Jesperi 4 820 000 $4 820 000 $ C UFA - 7	Barbashev, Ivan 2 750 000 $2 750 000 $ AG, AD UFA - 5
Martinook, Jordan 1 800 000 $1 800 000 $ AG, AD UFA - 1	Staal, Jordan 2 500 000 $2 500 000 $ C, AG UFA - 4	Fast, Jesper 2 500 000 $2 500 000 $ AD UFA - 2

Défenseur gaucher	Défenseur droitier	Gardien de but
Slavin, Jaccob 5 300 000 $5 300 000 $ DG M-NTC UFA - 2	Burns, Brent 5 280 000 $5 280 000 $ DD M-NTC UFA - 2	Kochetkov, Pyotr 2 000 000 $2 000 000 $ G UFA - 4
Skjei, Brady 5 250 000 $5 250 000 $ DG M-NTC UFA - 1	Pesce, Brett 4 025 000 $4 025 000 $ DD M-NTC UFA - 1	Varlamov, Semyon 3 500 000 $3 500 000 $ G UFA - 4
Gostisbehere, Shayne 3 000 000 $3 000 000 $ DG/DD UFA - 1	Chatfield, Jalen 762 500 $762 500 $ DD UFA - 1

Laissés de côté	Liste des blessés (IR)	Liste des blessés à long terme (LTIR)
De Haan, Calvin 850 000 $850 000 $ DG/DD UFA - 1
Drury, Jack 925 000 $925 000 $ C RFA - 1
Noesen, Stefan 762 500 $762 500 $ AG, AD UFA - 1

Unités spéciales

Avantage numérique 1
Meier, T.		Aho, S.		Teräväinen, T.
	Svechnikov, A.		Burns, B.

Avantage numérique 2
Jarvis, S.		Kotkaniemi, J.		Pacioretty, M.
	Gostisbehere, S.		Necas, M.

Infériorité numérique 1
	Staal, J.	Fast, J.
	Skjei, B.	Pesce, B.

Infériorité numérique 2
	Aho, S.	Teräväinen, T.
	Slavin, J.	Chatfield, J.

15 févr. 2023 à 12 h 55

In_it_to_winnik

Rejoint: avr. 2017

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Even without the extension I think he goes for more. He's already reached 30 goals on the year. Late 1st, okay prospect and next years 2nd probably wouldn't do it or Carolina would have this done by now. Honestly even the QO for him which I believe is 95% of his salary so 9.5m is not outrageous for him. So you do get him for an extra year no matter what. Worst case scenario you deal him to a team at the draft for a 1st++ who can afford him. Not sure everyone sees how valuable he truly is especially as an RFA

15 févr. 2023 à 13 h 0

Caniac555

Hurricane Waddell

Rejoint: mai 2018

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I don’t think Morrow is considered a ‘okay prospect’. I think the scouting community at large would view him in an upper tier of high upside RHD prospects.

NJ has already said they want an extension first, and what are they going to give up realistically? A similar 1st + Holtz? I highly suspect they come off of their D prospects…they are going to need those guys on their ELCs in the coming years.

Vegas doesn’t have prospects and picks to trade unless they give up Brisson which I’m not clear they will.

Toronto - Knies??? Robertson??? Will they even trade their first? Will it be the end of Nylander after next year if they re-sign Meier.

Quoting: In_it_to_winnik

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15 févr. 2023 à 13 h 2

vikhodush

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Quoting: In_it_to_winnik

Agree with most of it but morrow is considered substantially more than an okay prospect. I’m sure you could tweak the offer a bit but that would be the core of it. Basing it off of Fiala or Cat and it’s in that ballpark.

15 févr. 2023 à 13 h 26

TheRealisticGuy

Habs4Ever

Rejoint: mai 2022

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SJ should jump on that
It's a no brainer for me

NJ could offer : Holtz + 1st + Bahl
CAR : Morrow + 1st + PHI 2nd

Do you want a really good forward prospect or defenseman prospect

You choose from there IMO

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15 févr. 2023 à 13 h 30

vikhodush

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Quoting: TheRealisticGuy

I’ve asked that question on here to SJS fans and seems they’d rather go for D prospect. Not sure how much higher they’d rank Holtz compared to morrow when you factor in positional preferences.

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15 févr. 2023 à 13 h 31

In_it_to_winnik

Rejoint: avr. 2017

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Quoting: Caniac555

I'm probably under-rating morrow. I have difficulty rating prospects I'm the NCAA. I don't know why the sharks aren't giving permission to talk with team about an extention. You are 100% correct that they have the best prospect pool and assets to take a run at him. All the other teams are going to have to offer up multiple 1sts since they don't have the same prospect pool.

Would anyone be shock to see Vagas giving or 3 1sts at this point? I wouldn't.

Carolina and Toronto are in similar situations in terms of cap space and both being top teams in the league. They both have assets to make a deal happen (2 1st++). Toronto probably has a leg up in the race since they need a winger more than Carolina. I expect to see them in on O'Reilly/Hayes/Henrique. Good 2 way guys who fit RBs system.

I'll be very intrigued to see how this ends and what Carolina does. Honestly even garland I could see as a target. They always seem to make a big move

15 févr. 2023 à 13 h 34

RV23

Rejoint: juin 2019

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Quoting: vikhodush

I’ve asked that question on here to SJS fans and seems they’d rather go for D prospect. Not sure how much higher they’d rank Holtz compared to morrow when you factor in positional preferences.

Don’t forget those same SJS sharks fans also believe the conversation starts at 1st/Jarvis 😂

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15 févr. 2023 à 13 h 35

In_it_to_winnik

Rejoint: avr. 2017

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Quoting: vikhodush

I'm assuming meier is more valuable than those two. He's a new aged powerforward. Also they got awful value back. Especially mini got robbed. What was it late 1st and good d prospect?? I still get frustrated that's all he went for. But if you base it on that than I can get in board with this offer.

15 févr. 2023 à 13 h 37

vikhodush

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Quoting: RV23

Don’t forget those same SJS sharks fans also believe the conversation starts at 1st/Jarvis 😂

Lol they’ve seemed to come off that a bit since it doesn’t seem like canes or devs are gonna include certain guys. But you’ll still find more than enough of those outlandish offers on here

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15 févr. 2023 à 13 h 37

#10

aadoyle

Hakuna Matata

Rejoint: févr. 2020

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Quoting: TheRealisticGuy

I feel NJ gonna offer one of Nemec or Hughes in the end as its gonna be a bidding war between what what i feel will be the final 2 Toronto and them

As if Toronto does include Sandin got to think NJ needs to beat him out with a higher prospect. As while Holtz looked good in the AHL last year hasnt done much this year.

Now someone else might come in and just send 2 1sts and prospects to beat them out but I dont see it

15 févr. 2023 à 13 h 39

#11

RV23

Rejoint: juin 2019

Messages: 316

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Quoting: aadoyle

I feel NJ gonna offer one of Nemec or Hughes in the end as its gonna be a bidding war between Toronto and them

As if Toronto does include Sandin got to think NJ needs to beat him out with a higher prospect. As while Holtz looked good in the AHL last year hasnt done much this year.

I PROMISE NJ won’t go insane on this. The front office wants him, but not going to go full blown nuclear either.

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15 févr. 2023 à 13 h 40

#12

TheRealisticGuy

Habs4Ever

Rejoint: mai 2022

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Quoting: aadoyle

IMO Holtz & Morrow have more value than Sandin but I might be wrong, especially for Sandin/Morrow

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15 févr. 2023 à 13 h 41

#13

aadoyle

Hakuna Matata

Rejoint: févr. 2020

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Quoting: RV23

I PROMISE NJ won’t go insane on this. The front office wants him, but not going to go full blown nuclear either.

They want an extension though so that will increase the price.

If NJ goes with Holtz but another team beats that offer if they really want him Nemec will get it done

15 févr. 2023 à 13 h 42

#14

aadoyle

Hakuna Matata

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Quoting: TheRealisticGuy

IMO Holtz & Morrow have more value than Sandin but I might be wrong, especially for Sandin/Morrow

I dont see how a struggling wing and Morrow who hasnt played an NHL game has more value than a 22 year old LD playing top 4 in Toronto.

A good example of just how good Sandin is (Watch the DAL vs. TOR 5 on 3 PK) or when he delivered the reverse hit on Wheeler

Like when I checked his stats I went huh as despite being 5'11 this kid is physical

15 févr. 2023 à 13 h 43

#15

vikhodush

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Quoting: In_it_to_winnik

Every situation is unique but I think you can certainly make the case to use those as a decent baseline. Can make the argument Timo is more valuable but Cat was coming off of a monster season and his QO is lower. Either way I think the players are roughly in the same tier and the situations have a bunch of similarities to the point that you can use those deals.

15 févr. 2023 à 13 h 44

#16

RV23

Rejoint: juin 2019

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Quoting: aadoyle

They want an extension though so that will increase the price.

If NJ goes with Holtz but another team beats that offer if they really want him Nemec will get it done

We wouldn’t go to that extent, we’d let whatever team beat our offer win. Our team reporters are saying their sources have said “Hughes and Nemec are untouchable. Absolute non-starter”. You gotta ask yourself when does a team draft somebody 2OA and then trade said player within 12 months? It just doesn’t happen.

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15 févr. 2023 à 13 h 44

#17

Caniac555

Hurricane Waddell

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First off, I’m never shocked by what Vegas will do. Itd be dumb to continue this trend because at some point they will be bottom dwellers with no prospects incoming.

I would like to add that Carolina and Toronto are not in the same position cap wise. The Canes have $10m in LTIR overage to use, while Toronto only has $1.1m. I realize Toronto can make some moves to increase that amount, but not much more than about 5.5-6m. Leafs would have to make moves and/or ask for retention or contracts to go back. Canes would not.

Canes and Knights (if they put Stone on LTIR) are the only buying contender teams in large enough LTIR overage spots to afford Meier without any help needed. Other teams like Buffalo, Jets, and Wild could as well but doesn’t seem like they’re in it.

Quoting: In_it_to_winnik

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15 févr. 2023 à 13 h 47

#18

Caniac555

Hurricane Waddell

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Why would Toronto trade him then? This is the issue I see for a few teams when it comes to Meier - subtracting from their club today. Canes and Knights won’t have to do that.

Quoting: aadoyle

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15 févr. 2023 à 13 h 48

#19

aadoyle

Hakuna Matata

Rejoint: févr. 2020

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Quoting: Caniac555

Why would Toronto trade him then? This is the issue I see for a few teams when it comes to Meier - subtracting from their club today. Canes and Knights won’t have to do that.

I dont but apparently people like hey lets throw Sandin in to make our package better. Makes no sense but unless Dubas has a backup plan for LD then it could work idk

Like if we get Meier then go trade for McCabe I guess you can say its fine.

But in general if Toronto went 1ST + Sandin + Knies, NJ would be the team going hey want Nemec

15 févr. 2023 à 14 h 45

#20

glarson17

Rejoint: juin 2019

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This is a fair return for Meier, however I don’t see why San Jose would move Meier without an extension in place and miss out on additional assets coming back

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15 févr. 2023 à 14 h 47

#21

vikhodush

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Quoting: glarson17

This is a fair return for Meier, however I don’t see why San Jose would move Meier without an extension in place and miss out on additional assets coming back

I don’t either but I also thought we’d get to the stage with the 2-3 interested teams that SJS are comfortable with returns at this point. More my impatience than anything else as I’d think it’s a missed opportunity if they don’t get an extension done.

15 févr. 2023 à 14 h 54

#22

glarson17

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Quoting: vikhodush

Yeah I’m not sure what all is going on, sounds like he hasn’t talked extension with any teams yet. I think Grier wants to feel out all the appropriate offers and go from there. Who knows though, typically the sharks are pretty tight lipped as an org on this stuff

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15 févr. 2023 à 14 h 57

#23

poeticentropy

Rejoint: oct. 2020

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Quoting: vikhodush

I’ve asked that question on here to SJS fans and seems they’d rather go for D prospect. Not sure how much higher they’d rank Holtz compared to morrow when you factor in positional preferences.

Ideally we get a deal that helps both. SJ needs a high end RD prospect in the pipeline with Merkley not working out, but they will also need a scoring winger prospect especially if they are shipping out Meier. They could also get that RD prospect if they're shipping out Karlsson (much harder to do)
So 1st+morrow + a winger prospect?
Grier is reportedly asking for the moon or else a deal would have already gone through. Their camp reportedly considered Nemec a "A/B tweener" and Holtz a B prospect, which says their bar for A vs B prospects is crazy high. So I bet they think Morrow would be a B and then they'd want another B thrown in, which could be that forward. I'm not saying Grier will get this ask. I am one of those that thinks neither Karlsson or Meier will get moved because Grier wants to keep them and only will move them for overpays

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15 févr. 2023 à 14 h 58

#24

vikhodush

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Quoting: glarson17

GMDW made some cheeky remarks about Grier and said he loves the guy so I translate that to mean we’re deep into talks lol

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15 févr. 2023 à 15 h 0

#25

vikhodush

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Quoting: poeticentropy

Yeah seems like he has extremely high standards with those valuations haha. Assuming he’s just trying to negotiate and position things in the media to increase his leverage. Could add a guy like Gunler to that offer. I think he’s a true Bish prospect but Grier would view him as a C prospect with those standards lol

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