Swap in Roy for Struble and I take it.

It was months ago, nevertheless I trust the coach’s judgement.

You offered nothing.. the deal you offered is not more valuable than this one lol

Duchene. He went for two late 1sts and two C prospects in the trade to Ottawa, almost the same situation,

Would you rather have two late 1st round picks who have a 20% chance to become a bottom 6 forward, or a pick around 10th overall? I’d take that Florida pick over 3 late first round picks.

That's your opinion, it's not factual. You asked for an example and I provided evidence.

Once again I'll ask, but I imagine you won't answer because you don't have one, but please provide a comparable for a deal where a player of Dubois' value was traded for a package similar to yours.

Duchene. I’d say he was traded for less. Top 10 pick > two late 1st picks. Dvorak > C prospect. Struble = C prospect. High end players are rarely traded at a young age as a rental so this is probably the best comparable you’ll find.

So there you have it. Just as I said, even a player in a distressed situation as Duchenne was returned far more than your offer.

Now do you understand why your proposal isn't enough value? You proved it yourself.

Would you rather have two late first round picks or a top 10 pick. Answer the question.

It would depend on the remainder of the package.

Two C prospects who are almost guaranteed to not make the nhl and surprisingly neither of them made the nhl.

Exactly. Which is why the Jets wouldn't want Strudel (low chance of being an NHL regular and unneeded) or Dvorak (no value to the Jets and about equal to a 3rd round pick in value, or another longshot to play in the NHL).

To be clear, I don't think the Jets would go for either unless the pick is top 4 or 5. A single pick, say #6 on it's own isn't enough and two lower picks on their own aren't enough.

The Jets are giving up a sure thing, a young 1C. So, they are most likely going to want a little insurance in the form of a good prospect/player in case the pick doesn't pan out.

It doesn’t really matter what they want.. they can set a price, but they’ll get whatever someone is willing to give them. They lack leverage in this situation. He’s already told them he’s not going to re-sign, that means they have to trade him because they’re not going to let him walk away for nothing.

He also gets to choose where he plays long term. Meaning only teams that know he will sign long term will give a premium for him, or he will be a rental bringing the price down. They’re not going to get a top 5 pick for him because he’s likely not going to sign long term with any of those teams that hold that high of a pick. Besides, in this draft, there’s not a chance in hell any team in the top 5 are trading that pick..

We know he will sign in Montreal, there’s probably only a few other teams that he wants to sign with. It was already reported by his agent that he wants to test the market in 2024.

The most likely situation is that the Jets let him talk to teams that he is willing to extend with if he isn't willing to extend in Winnipeg which will raise his price.

Look at what recent players on the same situation returned recently. Matt Tkachuk was in the exact same situation last summer and returned far more than your offer. A couple years back, Jacob Trouba who would only agree to extend with the Rangers alone, returned more than your offer. So, there is just no history at all to support Winnipeg having to accept an offer similar to yours.

I never said anyone would offer a top 5 pick, I said that a top 5 pick would be the only way Winnipeg trades him 1 for 1 for a pick. If the pick is outside of that, it likely requires requires an add, barring someone the Jets really like is there at 6-10. It's just not logical for the Jets to give up a 1C for a single chance at a player they hope will in 4 or 5 years, be close to as good as Dubois if they are lucky.

So, while you may have a hard time accepting it, all of the examples we've talked about demonstrate that the Jets most likely get more than what you are offering and not the same or less.

Exactly, and both Trouba and Tkachuk went to the team that they were willing to sign with. That is the most likely scenario. In Tkachuk’s case half the league was after him. He would go almost anywhere in the US. That was his stipulation. We don’t know which teams Dubois will sign with. We know Montreal for sure, what if it is only Montreal? Then there is no competition.

And no Trouba did not go for a better package than this. He went for a 2nd pairing Dman and a late first. I have proposed a top 10 pick, a 3rd line centre and a prospect. I’d take that top 10 pick over Pionk and the late first as a package lol I think you’re under estimating the value of that pick. In any draft that pick is incredibly valuable. In this specific draft it is even more valuable. This is where stars are picked.

Let’s play this game though. Let’s say he will sign with the Habs, Rangers, Bruins, Avs, Pens, Caps and Stars. That’s a pretty wide range of teams. Only half of these teams can even afford him.. and half of these teams don’t even have an A prospect let alone a high pick.. now give me a package from each or any of them that would be better than the one I’ve proposed.

Just remember, he forced his way out of Columbus and now he’s doing something similar in Winnipeg. It’s been reported that he wants to be in a bigger market and that seems accurate, so pick a big market team in the nhl and give me a better package... There may be a couple teams that can offer something similar, maybe even a little better, but there aren’t many.

You shouldn't. Rod has ALWAYS been awful at managing game situations. His ineptitude to manage the lines is what got the Canes eliminated last year. And the year before that. And the year before that. He can't outcoach opponents. He's a good motivator. His judgement is AWFUL

We don't need to go through and find fantasy trades that may or may not be better or worse. I'm more interested in what actually may happen as opposed to a fantasy of what might happen if all the stars align.

Every comparable case that we've looked at in the past was for a much larger return than you are offering for equal or lesser players in similar or worse situations. You're also incredibly overvaluing picks as most fans do. PLD was a #3 pick himself and is a 1C, so the odds of your pick, being lower than 3rd turning into the same calibre of player are fairly slim.

You have to remember that just because a player is valuable to you, it doesn't mean he is valuable to the other team. So, no matter how much you overvalue Dvorak and Strudel, both have no value to Winnipeg. If they are there or not, it makes no difference to the deal. You're simply offering a single, what you hope will be, top 10 pick and nothing we've looked at hints that it will be enough on it's own.

It's probably just best to table this until the summer when we know where the picks land and how various teams have fared, who may be in the market for a young 1C and who may be available for whatever reasons.

You also never did answer my question about your double standard with Monahan. Somehow you have him as a rental UFA returning more that a full year of a vastly superior player that would still be an RFA and even if he won't sign, would return at least what Monahan would, in your eyes, at the following TDL. I guess you want to avoid that double standard?

and just what exactly are some of those records? Makar improved in his 2nd year with the team, morrow has stagnated

I’m not claiming Dvorak and Struble have tons of value. They are just pieces. Whatever you think of Dvorak, he is simply a centre that they would probably like back because they are moving a centre. Best case scenario is he fits right in, worst case, he’s just an asset to trade in the future. What you need to realize is that just because you don’t value a player, doesn’t mean they aren’t valuable. Dvorak was traded for a 1st and a 2nd a year and a half ago. He’s the same player putting up basically the same stats as he did at that time. There were multiple teams offering 1st round picks for him, that caused us to throw in a 2nd rounder to win the bidding war. He is clearly valued. The piece is the top 10 pick,

I realize that and have already said it won't be enough to be competitive with other offers. That's also not taking into account that you want PLD extended long term at far below market value.

Care to take a stab at explaining how Monahan as a pure rental will return basically the same price you're offering for an extended at far below market value PLD?

3rd time I've asked that one, but I imagine you will pass on explaining that double standard.

Monahan as a pure rental will return a late 1st round pick. How is that anywhere near comparable to a top 10 pick, 3rd line centre and prospect. It’s not even in the same stratosphere.

There's two parts to that. First, as we've already discussed Dvorak and Strudel have zero value to Winnipeg, so we can throw them out.

Second, even if we keep them in, you still have Monahan going for a first and a 6th (the 6th being about equal to the two no value pieces you added to the PLD trade). So in essence you're saying that a full year of PLD, plus a below market value extension is only worth about 10-15 spots in the draft over a plug like Monahan.

That clearly demonstrates a serious double standard by you in assessing a player's value and is yet another point showing how your offer isn't based in reality.

First off you can stop saying Dvorak and Struble have no value to the Jets. You have no idea who the Jets value and how much they value them. We are going to use their perceived value, your subjective opinion has no place in determining that.

Dvorak went for a 1st and a 2nd a year and a half ago, there were multiple teams offering a 1st, he is still the same player. I’ll even lower that value just for the sake of argument. Let’s say he’s worth a 2nd rounder, that is far more valuable than the “no value” you’re disingenuously suggesting.

Struble is a former 2nd round pick who has had a modest college career, and is a relatively safe bet to become a bottom pairing Dman. And you said earlier that his value is equivalent to a 3rd rounder, so I’ll give you that. Now how is a top 10 pick, 2nd rounder and 3rd rounder at all comparable to a single late 1st round pick (that may as well be considered a 2nd rounder because the likelyhood of hitting on that pick is basically the same)

If you want to argue that a better prospect should be including rather than Struble, that would at least be a respectable argument. Instead you’re suggesting that this deal is nowhere near what it would take to land a player like Dubois even considering his situation. Which is nonsense.

And yes 10 to 15 spots in the first round is huge. I’d take 1 top 10 pick over 3 of those late first round picks. We know the odds on this. You have less than a 5% chance at landing a star in the late first round. You have a 25% chance at even landing an nhler period.

Let’s say the Florida pick is anywhere from 8th to 11th. You have a 50% chance at landing a star there, and a 90% chance at landing an nhler. The value difference is enormous. That’s why rentals go for late 1st round picks… teams are willing to give up that pick to have a player for a couple of months.

No none of us can say positively what a GM will do, but you can make an educated guess. Dvorak would be an expensive 4th liner on the Jets, so no value would be placed in him, I would think and Strudel would be 5 or 6 on the Jets left side, so again no value.

I also did make the argument in my very first post that the first was a good start but Strudel and Dvorak hold no value to Winnipeg and need to be replaced with pieces that have value to Winnipeg. So there's you're respectable argument.

In didn't say it isn't close, I said it's not good enough to be competitive with the other offers Winnipeg will have.

1C is the rarest and hardest position in hockey to fill, so you're really kidding yourself if you think teams won't be calling the Jets non-stop if PLD is available.

If we take your evaluation of your offer being a 1st, 2nd and 3rd for Dubois, then you are saying that the difference between 2 months of a cap dump like Monahan that cost Calgary a 1st to move and a year and a half, plus another 7 years of a young 1C extended at below market value is 10-15 spots in the draft and a 2nd (the difference between a 3rd and 6th is negligible).

I know you're grasping at straws trying to defend your our offer, but do you seriously believe that?

You've kind of painted yourself into a corner here showing that you seriously overvalue Monahan while simultaneously undervaluing PLD. Demonstrating a very clear pro-Montreal bias in player evalution.

Anyways, you can believe that you offered enough, that's fine. Reality, as we've seen from the actual trades we discussed, shows that it won't be enough and he'll be moved elsewhere if he is indeed traded. If the actual offers from Montreal equal yours.