At this point I’d say no. But if he bounces back? My concern is if Campbell keeps playing as he is and barring an injury, he won’t really get a chance to prove he can bounce back. If he goes somewhere else he can play more and be in the 1A 1B role, or even solid starter.

Skinner: .944
Smith: .920
Koskinen: .910

No need for another goalie, the Oilers already have 3 better ones.

What Edmonton needs is stability and certainty in net. Mrazek isn't quite that.

Hmmm. Hard to argue against or for you a on this. From games I’ve watched Mrazek I’ve thought he’s quite solid. But I do agree that a goalie can be inflated by the defensive system in front of him.

A prime example is Phillip Grubauer . People were calling him to get a Vezina last season but all the underlying numbers proved he was nothing more than an average starter behind a strong defensive system.

Another one of those gambles that’s currently paying off is Fredrick Anderson however I do feel he will regress to the mean as he normally does from January onwards.

You should probably do yourself a favour and see some of the comments on here the day Mrazek was signed. Generally pretty positive reviews except for the general leaf hate. Carolina fans specifically stating they will miss him and wish they could have signed him at that value.

Now you can post analytics all you want, but quality watching over quantity watching is key. How goalies perform under pressure, who is On the ice when goals are scored against etc. hurricanes fans will tell you that when Jake Gardiner was on the ice, they still felt confident with Mrazek back there. That’s a qualitative stat that no chart will show you.

You clearly haven't looked into his advanced stats. Mrazek is not very good against high danger chances and is top 5 last year in rebounds per shot attempt. Those are the kind of stats that isolate a goalie from how good his defense was in front of him. Carolina is a top 5 defense, toronto is not.

Now you want to talk about MAF in Chicago? Yeah, he got traded and wasn't happy about it so his first 5 games collectively weren't good even posting a .600 in one of those first 5 games.The last 7 games Flowers has a average .931 save % on a average of 33 shots faced per game behind a bad defense. Fleury and Mrazek should never be discussed together, it's not close.

Petr Mrázek (3x3.8m with Toronto) over the past three years: +14.6 goals saved over expected. pic.twitter.com/JeykZ5V2Hv

— Micah Blake McCurdy (@IneffectiveMath) July 28, 2021

What are these advanced stats you are looking at.

According to Evolving Hockey’s expected goals model, Mrazek ranked 5th in goals saved above expected league-wide despite playing a fraction of the games that other league leaders had dressed for. At 5v5, where up to 80% of all ice time occurs, Mrazek ranked even better, sitting 3rd in the entire NHL at full strength. His puck-stopping abilities last year were amongst the league’s elite, as he sparkled with a 2.03 GAA and a .923 save percentage, well above his career averages in both.

Am I happy they committed 3 years to him, not really, but he is worth his contract. I just would have preferred signing a goalie to a 1 year deal, 2 max, so you could have seen what we had in Jack Campbell, which is a very very good goalie.

I love it when people deflect when someone comments against their idea or trade, then assume just because that person is a fan of a team to think every player is good or worth his contract. Some of us aren't die hard homers and know what reality is. If you've followed my comments, you'd know that goes down as one of the worst sign and trade deals bowman has ever done. I also never said the Hawks were going to be good this year.

Back to the topic at hand, Mrazek is not a starting goalie, he's a backup. His advanced analytics prove that in carolina. At almost $4M for a backup he's overpaid. Sorry you take the truth so personal but don't be blinded by being a fan of a team. If someone from Carolina posted this trade on CF last year, Mrazek at $4M for a 2nd or 3rd, Leafs fans would be flaming that person.

Mrazek also was bottom 5 in the league in rebounds given up which is a stat that takes away the team on the ice which Mrazek benefited from large in part. He also was not great with high danger and medium danger shots. Carolina has been a top 5 defensive team in the league, hard to compare a goalie without considering that. Heck Andersen looks like a Vezina goalie in Carolina which Mrazek never did and that speaks volumes; not that Freddie is bad (he's certainly an upgrade over Mrazek) but he's not a top 5 goalie in the league even though he looks like one right now.

Analytics wise Mrazek was one of the better goalies in the league the past 3 seasons. This guy is moving goal posts to chirp the leafs. Loser arguments from Chihawk

Petr Mrázek (3x3.8m with Toronto) over the past three years: +14.6 goals saved over expected. pic.twitter.com/JeykZ5V2Hv

— Micah Blake McCurdy (@IneffectiveMath) July 28, 2021

What are these advanced stats you are looking at.

According to Evolving Hockey’s expected goals model, Mrazek ranked 5th in goals saved above expected league-wide despite playing a fraction of the games that other league leaders had dressed for. At 5v5, where up to 80% of all ice time occurs, Mrazek ranked even better, sitting 3rd in the entire NHL at full strength. His puck-stopping abilities last year were amongst the league’s elite, as he sparkled with a 2.03 GAA and a .923 save percentage, well above his career averages in both.

Am I happy they committed 3 years to him, not really, but he is worth his contract. I just would have preferred signing a goalie to a 1 year deal, 2 max, so you could have seen what we had in Jack Campbell, which is a very very good goalie.

He’s a guy saying Mrazek isn’t a starter based off of some sort of analytics he’s finding. But an actual NHL who in my mind has relied way too much on analytics seems to think he’s a starter and is paying him as one…. Quite interesting.

Yeah, none of what you are saying is accurate. Look at the advanced analytics of Mrazek in Carolina and you'll understand his save % was because of the defense, didn't face many high danger chances. He's a backup goalie and at almost $4M cap hit in a flat cap world he's overpaid.

He’s a guy saying Mrazek isn’t a starter based off of some sort of analytics he’s finding. But an actual NHL who in my mind has relied way too much on analytics seems to think he’s a starter and is paying him as one…. Quite interesting.

No, thats not at all what the advanced stats say about him. Not at all. They say he's a good 1b goalie

Well how about this your stats and my stats would say he is definitely an above average goalie, putting in the 3-5mil range. He sits comfortably at 3.8. If I have missed some of your comments my mistake, all I am getting at is he is absolutely worth his contract.

But like I stated, signing any goalie to a 3 year deal was a mistake in my eyes for Toronto until you knew what you had in Campbell. Because signing him now just becomes that much tougher. Not impossible but not easy

Really? Being bottom 5 in rebounds given up in the league of all goalies including backups last year says he's a 1B?

He's average for all NHL goalies I agree. He's below average for a starter, definitely not a top 20 goalie in the league compared with starters. When you extrapolate stats away from the team in front of him, it says he's a decent backup. Frankly, that's what Toronto needs as Soup is a solid goalie when healthy. I'm not saying Mrazek isn't a decent backup by the way, I'm just saying in a flat cap world dropping almost $4M for a backup is too rich for most teams thus his trade value isn't that high. It's not like there was a big free agency market for Mrazek clearly.

At this point I’d say no. But if he bounces back? My concern is if Campbell keeps playing as he is and barring an injury, he won’t really get a chance to prove he can bounce back. If he goes somewhere else he can play more and be in the 1A 1B role, or even solid starter.

Yes, because that's a meaningless stat and the fact thats all you have latched onto proves it. The guy played 12 games due to injury last year, and all you have is "rebounds given up" in a hilariously small sample size and just ignore the rest of his career.
The definition of cherry picking so you can pretend your argument has a leg to stand on

So he's not a top 20 goalie in a league with 32 teams and that means hes a back up? He's a 1b at worst by that definition alone.

He's average for all NHL goalies I agree. He's below average for a starter, definitely not a top 20 goalie in the league compared with starters. When you extrapolate stats away from the team in front of him, it says he's a decent backup. Frankly, that's what Toronto needs as Soup is a solid goalie when healthy. I'm not saying Mrazek isn't a decent backup by the way, I'm just saying in a flat cap world dropping almost $4M for a backup is too rich for most teams thus his trade value isn't that high. It's not like there was a big free agency market for Mrazek clearly.

Because arguably the bottom 20% to 30% of goalies starters in the league any given year shouldn't be starters. Some teams have two starters, other teams don't have a legitimate starter.

Yup, no argument there. I’m guessing there thought processes was tho of a 1A 1B spilt.

except that you said goalies in the league, so that doesnt split them by team. if he's between 21 and 32 he's still a starter.