Forums/Armchair-GM

Trading Allen before the Expansion Draft

Créé par: pinslack
Date de création initiale: jui 16, 2021
Publié: 16 jui à 10 h 24
Équipe: 2021-22 Canadiens de Montréal
Explications
In this scenario, we lose Allen + Fleury for 3rd instead of losing Allen to SEA for nothing (inb4 Fleury for a 3rd)

Protection :
Gally Toffoli Anderson KK Evans Lehko Danault (UFA rights)
Petry Edmundson Chiarot

Forwards that meet the exposure requirements : Drouin Byron
D that meet the exposure requirements : Weber Kulak
G that meet the exposure requirements : McNiven

Drouin case : he would still be a mystery at the Expansion Draft (LTIR? out of hockey?) so he would have 0 value even if he's a top 6 talent in top shape.

If he's OK to go next season (doubt) and Bergevin thinks he has trade value (or thinks he could play in MTL), protect him instead of Danault. Sign Perry to meet 2/2 forwards expositions.

SEA wouldnt touch because of LTIR Drouin + Weber
SEA wouldnt select Byron because he has negative value because of his contract but if they do, it helps MTL
SEA could pick Kulak. He has been good but MTL coachs never trusted him so he's set to be a 7th D. At 1.8m, it was expensive so it helps MTL. He most likely have next to 0 value
SEA could pick Fleury too. Bad for MTL RD pipeline, but like Kulak, he most likely have next to 0 value

TLDR : trade Allen to get value out of him and let SEA select a player with 0 value (or negative value) to avoid losing Allen for nothing. Maybe 5 teams could bid, so I'm guessing a 3rd.
Signatures de joueurs autonomes
CRÉÉANSCAP HIT
Allen, Jake22 875 000 $
Allen, Jake22 875 000 $
Allen, Jake22 875 000 $
Allen, Jake22 875 000 $
Allen, Jake22 875 000 $
Transactions
MTL
  1. 2021 3e round pick (SJS)
SJS
  1. Allen, Jake
Détails additionnels:
Protect Allen, buyout Jones and expose Korenar
MTL
    3rd
    COL
    1. Allen, Jake
    Détails additionnels:
    Protect Allen, expose Grubauer UFA rights, Miska & Johansson
    MTL
      3rd
      DET
      1. Allen, Jake
      Détails additionnels:
      Protect Allen, expose Greiss & Bernier UFA rights
      MTL
        3rd
        BUF
        1. Allen, Jake
        Détails additionnels:
        Protect Allent, expose Tokarski & Ulmark UFA rights
        MTL
          3rd
          EDM
          1. Allen, Jake
          Détails additionnels:
          Protect Allen, expose Smith UFA rights, Skinner & Stalock, buyout Koskinen
          MTL
            SEA
            1. Fleury, Cale [Droits de RFA]
            Rachats de contrats
            • Karl Alzner: 1 958 333 $
            ANNÉE DE REPÊCHAGERONDE 1RONDE 2RONDE 3RONDE 4RONDE 5RONDE 6RONDE 7
            2021
            MTL
            MTL
            TBL
            CHI
            WSH
            SJS
            MTL
            STL
            VGK
            PHI
            MTL
            MTL
            2022
            MTL
            MTL
            MTL
            MTL
            MTL
            MTL
            MTL
            2023
            MTL
            MTL
            MTL
            MTL
            MTL
            MTL
            MTL
            TAILLE DE LA FORMATIONPLAFOND SALARIALCAP HITEXCÉDENTS BONISESPACE SOUS LE PLAFOND SALARIAL
            1381 500 000 $51 194 227 $597 561 $1 475 000 $30 305 773 $
            Ailier gaucheCentreAilier droit
            MTL
            Toffoli, Tyler
            4 250 000 $
            AG, AD
            UFA - 3
            MTL
            Suzuki, Nick
            863 333 $
            C, AD
            RFA - 1
            MTL
            Gallagher, Brendan
            6 500 000 $
            AD
            NMC NTC
            UFA - 6
            MTL
            Byron, Paul
            3 400 000 $
            AG, AD
            UFA - 2
            MTL
            Evans, Jake
            750 000 $
            C, AD
            RFA - 1
            MTL
            Anderson, Josh
            5 500 000 $
            AD
            NTC
            UFA - 6
            MTL
            Caufield, Cole
            880 833 $
            AD, C
            RFA - 2
            Défenseur gaucherDéfenseur droitierGardien de but
            MTL
            Edmundson, Joel
            3 500 000 $
            DG
            NTC
            UFA - 3
            MTL
            Petry, Jeff
            6 250 000 $
            DD
            NMC NTC
            UFA - 4
            MTL
            Price, Carey
            10 500 000 $
            G
            NMC
            UFA - 5
            MTL
            Chiarot, Ben
            3 500 000 $
            DG
            NTC
            UFA - 1
            MTL
            Romanov, Alexander
            894 167 $
            DG/DD
            RFA - 1
            Laissés de côtéListe des blessés (IR)Liste des blessés à long terme (LTIR)
            MTL
            Kulak, Brett
            1 850 000 $
            DG
            UFA - 1
            MTL
            Drouin, Jonathan
            5 500 000 $
            AG
            NTC
            UFA - 2
            MTL
            Weber, Shea
            7 857 143 $
            DD
            UFA - 5
            MTL
            Allen, Jake
            2 875 000 $
            G
            UFA - 2

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            16 jui à 10 h 26
            #1
            Buffbry
            Rejoint: aoû 2017
            Messages: 6,258
            Mentions "j'aime": 3,515
            Wings pass, we aren't giving up picks or assets at this time. We are protecting greiss and bringing back bernier after expansion draft
            aedoran a aimé ceci.
            16 jui à 10 h 31
            #2
            Démarrer sujet
            casse a casse
            Rejoint: mai 2019
            Messages: 710
            Mentions "j'aime": 536
            Quoting: buffbry
            Wings pass, we aren't giving up picks or assets at this time. We are protecting greiss and bringing back bernier after expansion draft


            It was a long shot with DET indeed
            buffbry et aedoran a aimé ceci.
            16 jui à 10 h 38
            #3
            Rejoint: mai 2015
            Messages: 18,104
            Mentions "j'aime": 5,418
            This seems to be the consensus. Frankly even if no teams are willing to trade for Allen and we lose him for nothing, im not losing sleep over it.

            Sure its nice to get an extra 3rd or whatever but i mean we already have the 2nd most picks in the draft so losing Allen and simply replacing him with a UFA isnt that big of a deal.....
            pinslack et RobbStark03 a aimé ceci.
            16 jui à 10 h 40
            #4
            Nemo
            Rejoint: avr 2021
            Messages: 25
            Mentions "j'aime": 12
            I do not think the sharks, wings or avs accept. Korenar is the sharks future goalie, so would not want to lose him to expansion, wings need either goalie, and the avs probably won't even resign gru until after the draft.
            pinslack et aedoran a aimé ceci.
            16 jui à 10 h 41
            #5
            Rejoint: mai 2015
            Messages: 550
            Mentions "j'aime": 159
            you have until 3:00 PM (EDT) today... after that, you're doomed since the Expansion Draft roster freeze is on
            aedoran a aimé ceci.
            16 jui à 10 h 46
            #6
            You know nothing JS
            Rejoint: jan 2017
            Messages: 3,749
            Mentions "j'aime": 2,066
            Try to add a goalie UFA rights in return.
            aedoran a aimé ceci.
            16 jui à 10 h 49
            #7
            Rejoint: aoû 2019
            Messages: 879
            Mentions "j'aime": 408
            I'd take Allen for a 3rd on the Oilers.
            aedoran a aimé ceci.
            16 jui à 10 h 53
            #8
            Roster Architect
            Rejoint: mar 2021
            Messages: 1,846
            Mentions "j'aime": 623
            Quoting: F50marco
            This seems to be the consensus. Frankly even if no teams are willing to trade for Allen and we lose him for nothing, im not losing sleep over it.

            Sure its nice to get an extra 3rd or whatever but i mean we already have the 2nd most picks in the draft so losing Allen and simply replacing him with a UFA isnt that big of a deal.....


            I think it's quite the opposite actually. Bergevin acquired Allen and signed him to an extension immediately because he knew with Price's inconsistent play and injury history that he needed to lower his workload and Primeau wasn't and still isn't ready for that kind of job, still probably at least a year away. So the extension of Allen fits the timeline for Primeau to be ready for more NHL minutes. Plus Montreal has 12 picks in this years draft - 6 of them in the first 3 rounds - and already have a decently good prospect system, making it more of a possibility for them to move some of those picks to secure that Seattle doesn't touch Allen for those reasons I said, and Montreal can then control who Seattle takes.

            Personally I predict that Montreal moves at least 1 of their 2nd round picks (if not 2 of them) and a mediocre prospect to have Seattle select Byron or Drouin. This actually helps protect their biggest asset more (Price) and frees up more cap space on the process.
            pinslack a aimé ceci.
            16 jui à 11 h 18
            #9
            Rejoint: avr 2018
            Messages: 313
            Mentions "j'aime": 73
            Quoting: F50marco
            This seems to be the consensus. Frankly even if no teams are willing to trade for Allen and we lose him for nothing, im not losing sleep over it.


            I mean, with Weber unprotected and flirting with retirement, with Tatar walking, it really does seem that Allen will be SEA's choice. I mean, even if they're going to trade him afterwards, Allen has the highest value. Especially with a team friendly cap hit.

            As far as losing sleep over it, I disagree. JAllen has been the best 2nd goalie for the Habs in the past 10 years almost hehe! Not even close. Calm, confident, solid, winning his games. He did the job. MBergevin will be disappointed in the outcome, but I do think it's over for Allen.

            The other thing I'd do if I was Bergevin would be to TRY - and I want to stress TRY - to throw a 2nd round pick and a prospect for SEA to have them pick somebody other than Allen. Prospect could be Ylonen for instance. To which SEA would decline very, very quickly. And so we're back in a dead end.

            Yeah, Allen's gone. Might as well keep all picks and just deal with it afterwards. Teams that have negotiated with VGK in 2017 have mostly looked ridiculous in hindsight.
            pinslack a aimé ceci.
            16 jui à 11 h 30
            #10
            Rejoint: mai 2015
            Messages: 18,104
            Mentions "j'aime": 5,418
            Quoting: TrueCanuck
            I think it's quite the opposite actually. Bergevin acquired Allen and signed him to an extension immediately because he knew with Price's inconsistent play and injury history that he needed to lower his workload and Primeau wasn't and still isn't ready for that kind of job, still probably at least a year away. So the extension of Allen fits the timeline for Primeau to be ready for more NHL minutes. Plus Montreal has 12 picks in this years draft - 6 of them in the first 3 rounds - and already have a decently good prospect system, making it more of a possibility for them to move some of those picks to secure that Seattle doesn't touch Allen for those reasons I said, and Montreal can then control who Seattle takes.

            Personally I predict that Montreal moves at least 1 of their 2nd round picks (if not 2 of them) and a mediocre prospect to have Seattle select Byron or Drouin. This actually helps protect their biggest asset more (Price) and frees up more cap space on the process.


            The rumored cost is a 1st and a prospect.......... I understand Allen was an integral part of this team but I also understand that replacing him is not a complex task.

            if the cost is indeed a 3rd, then yeah sure why not but Im not losing sleep over it if it isn't. If the Habs have to let him go to simply to sign another UFA goalie, Im perfectly ok with it. Paying any exorbant price to keep Allen is what BAD GMS do. See Vegas expansion trades. Literally all of them backfired majorly..
            RedWing9119 a aimé ceci.
            16 jui à 11 h 37
            #11
            Rejoint: mai 2015
            Messages: 18,104
            Mentions "j'aime": 5,418
            Quoting: Fran615
            I mean, with Weber unprotected and flirting with retirement, with Tatar walking, it really does seem that Allen will be SEA's choice. I mean, even if they're going to trade him afterwards, Allen has the highest value. Especially with a team friendly cap hit.

            As far as losing sleep over it, I disagree. JAllen has been the best 2nd goalie for the Habs in the past 10 years almost hehe! Not even close. Calm, confident, solid, winning his games. He did the job. MBergevin will be disappointed in the outcome, but I do think it's over for Allen.

            The other thing I'd do if I was Bergevin would be to TRY - and I want to stress TRY - to throw a 2nd round pick and a prospect for SEA to have them pick somebody other than Allen. Prospect could be Ylonen for instance. To which SEA would decline very, very quickly. And so we're back in a dead end.

            Yeah, Allen's gone. Might as well keep all picks and just deal with it afterwards. Teams that have negotiated with VGK in 2017 have mostly looked ridiculous in hindsight.


            I think you may have misunderstood me. Me not losing sleep over it isn't because I think Allen isn't good or valuable. On the contrary. Im not losing any sleep over it because replacing him will not be hard to do. Lost of great options available. Lots of teams willing to trade goalies for picks and Habs have tons of picks.

            Allen was really good this year for the Habs but he's not the only good goalie out there. Thats why im not worried.
            RedWing9119 et Fran615 a aimé ceci.
            16 jui à 11 h 44
            #12
            Roster Architect
            Rejoint: mar 2021
            Messages: 1,846
            Mentions "j'aime": 623
            Quoting: F50marco
            The rumored cost is a 1st and a prospect.......... I understand Allen was an integral part of this team but I also understand that replacing him is not a complex task.

            if the cost is indeed a 3rd, then yeah sure why not but Im not losing sleep over it if it isn't. If the Habs have to let him go to simply to sign another UFA goalie, Im perfectly ok with it. Paying any exorbant price to keep Allen is what BAD GMS do. See Vegas expansion trades. Literally all of them backfired majorly..


            "Rumoured cost" just remember the first word there.. that's the initial ask and that's what Seattle has been asking for from every team - negotiations always start high and come down. If Montreal came in and offered multiple 2nds instead, it's likely be a strong counter offer (or even the earlier 2nd and earliest 3rd). Also keep in mind that Montreal's 1st is 31st overall so it's not a very valuable 1st, I think to be able to move the piece they want, it's definitely in play.
            16 jui à 12 h 04
            #13
            Rejoint: mai 2015
            Messages: 18,104
            Mentions "j'aime": 5,418
            Quoting: TrueCanuck
            "Rumoured cost" just remember the first word there.. that's the initial ask and that's what Seattle has been asking for from every team - negotiations always start high and come down. If Montreal came in and offered multiple 2nds instead, it's likely be a strong counter offer (or even the earlier 2nd and earliest 3rd). Also keep in mind that Montreal's 1st is 31st overall so it's not a very valuable 1st, I think to be able to move the piece they want, it's definitely in play.


            I think you just proved my point though. Yes I understand that the cost would be negotiated down but the point was if its just a 3rd rounder, then maybe I'd consider it but even then I wouldn't be worried if not. Anything close to what you mentioned is ludicrous for what it would cost to REPLACE Allen by other means. We're talking about a backup goalie here.

            Paying to not lose a player is ONLY viable when the player your losing is A) Irreplaceable and/or B) worth more in trade than in loss. Allen is neither.
            RedWing9119 a aimé ceci.
            16 jui à 12 h 27
            #14
            Rejoint: déc 2017
            Messages: 12,557
            Mentions "j'aime": 5,745
            Quoting: alpine4life
            you have until 3:00 PM (EDT) today... after that, you're doomed since the Expansion Draft roster freeze is on


            I thought it was the 17th?
            RedWing9119 a aimé ceci.
            16 jui à 12 h 34
            #15
            Rejoint: mai 2015
            Messages: 550
            Mentions "j'aime": 159
            Quoting: aedoran
            I thought it was the 17th?


            you are correct... the freeze starts at the same time than the submit list...

            Quoting: NHL
            July 17: Expansion Draft roster freeze & deadline for teams to submit protected lists for Seattle Expansion Draft (5:00PM-EDT).
            July 18-20: Seattle's exclusive window to interview teams' unprotected pending free agents.
            July 21: Seattle Expansion Draft (8:00PM-EDT).
            aedoran a aimé ceci.
            16 jui à 14 h 35
            #16
            Roster Architect
            Rejoint: mar 2021
            Messages: 1,846
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            Quoting: F50marco
            I think you just proved my point though. Yes I understand that the cost would be negotiated down but the point was if its just a 3rd rounder, then maybe I'd consider it but even then I wouldn't be worried if not. Anything close to what you mentioned is ludicrous for what it would cost to REPLACE Allen by other means. We're talking about a backup goalie here.

            Paying to not lose a player is ONLY viable when the player your losing is A) Irreplaceable and/or B) worth more in trade than in loss. Allen is neither.


            I don't think you fully follow my point. The idea of moving say at most the 31st overall pick to ensure that Seattle takes say Byron instead of Allen is more than just keeping a backup (mind you he's actually one of the best backups in the league). If you allow them to take Allen, you're losing $2.875M off the cap for 2 seasons and likely have to spend $2M + on a quality backup to replace him. So you're only gaining $875K in cap space, plus you're likely to overspend on a UFA as most teams do. Where as if you pay say the 31st overall pick (just an example on the high end) to have Seattle ensure they select Byron instead, it gives you more cap flexibility and roster flexibility - in this situation, you lose Byron's $3.4M cap hit for 2 seasons outright, and you can replace him with a guy on a league minimum deal or a ELC contract so even at most of an ELC at $925K to fill that spot of Byron, you're still gaining $2.475M in cap space which will help sign key RFA's like Kotkaniemi, Lehkonen, etc. and now you don't have to go out and overspend on a backup goalie in free agency. Along with that, as I said Montreal's farm system is pretty decent, not too strong but has some good pieces, so a top pick could be expendable when you remember that IF they moved the 31st overall pick, they still have the 63rd and 64th overall picks in the draft and generally the talent level between the 31st and 63-64th pick isn't the biggest either.

            Would the 31st overall pick be slightly high to have Seattle pick a different player? Yeah you could argue that but I find it extremely odd how you're saying that offering the 2nds is "ludicrous" when they're both the immediate picks before the 3rd round, so they have essentially the same value as a 3rd round pick. I could very well see the deal being something like Seattle takes Byron and is compensated with the 63rd pick and a mediocre level prospect in return (maybe a Jan Mysak or Gianni Fairbrother type guy). It gives Seattle a good veteran that has proven leadership and a recent good playoff performer as well as a couple lower valued younger assets, and gives Montreal cap relief as well as a piece of mind in net.
            16 jui à 14 h 41
            #17
            Rejoint: mar 2017
            Messages: 2,356
            Mentions "j'aime": 1,119
            Quoting: TrueCanuck
            "Rumoured cost" just remember the first word there.. that's the initial ask and that's what Seattle has been asking for from every team - negotiations always start high and come down. If Montreal came in and offered multiple 2nds instead, it's likely be a strong counter offer (or even the earlier 2nd and earliest 3rd). Also keep in mind that Montreal's 1st is 31st overall so it's not a very valuable 1st, I think to be able to move the piece they want, it's definitely in play.


            Its smart for Seattle to ask the world as they are in no pressure to take contracts this season for assets. The same issues will face teams next year with players like Point, Barkov and Malkin needing new deals and the same flat cap. It may be more prudent to ice a decent team with term 2 years or less and try again next offseason til teams crack
            16 jui à 18 h 25
            #18
            Démarrer sujet
            casse a casse
            Rejoint: mai 2019
            Messages: 710
            Mentions "j'aime": 536
            Quoting: rpain
            I'd take Allen for a 3rd on the Oilers.


            Would you fear losing Skinner to SEA? Does he deserve your protection or you'd be OK giving it to Allen?
            17 jui à 0 h 07
            #19
            Rejoint: mai 2015
            Messages: 18,104
            Mentions "j'aime": 5,418
            Quoting: TrueCanuck
            I don't think you fully follow my point. The idea of moving say at most the 31st overall pick to ensure that Seattle takes say Byron instead of Allen is more than just keeping a backup (mind you he's actually one of the best backups in the league). If you allow them to take Allen, you're losing $2.875M off the cap for 2 seasons and likely have to spend $2M + on a quality backup to replace him. So you're only gaining $875K in cap space, plus you're likely to overspend on a UFA as most teams do. Where as if you pay say the 31st overall pick (just an example on the high end) to have Seattle ensure they select Byron instead, it gives you more cap flexibility and roster flexibility - in this situation, you lose Byron's $3.4M cap hit for 2 seasons outright, and you can replace him with a guy on a league minimum deal or a ELC contract so even at most of an ELC at $925K to fill that spot of Byron, you're still gaining $2.475M in cap space which will help sign key RFA's like Kotkaniemi, Lehkonen, etc. and now you don't have to go out and overspend on a backup goalie in free agency. Along with that, as I said Montreal's farm system is pretty decent, not too strong but has some good pieces, so a top pick could be expendable when you remember that IF they moved the 31st overall pick, they still have the 63rd and 64th overall picks in the draft and generally the talent level between the 31st and 63-64th pick isn't the biggest either.

            Would the 31st overall pick be slightly high to have Seattle pick a different player? Yeah you could argue that but I find it extremely odd how you're saying that offering the 2nds is "ludicrous" when they're both the immediate picks before the 3rd round, so they have essentially the same value as a 3rd round pick. I could very well see the deal being something like Seattle takes Byron and is compensated with the 63rd pick and a mediocre level prospect in return (maybe a Jan Mysak or Gianni Fairbrother type guy). It gives Seattle a good veteran that has proven leadership and a recent good playoff performer as well as a couple lower valued younger assets, and gives Montreal cap relief as well as a piece of mind in net.


            If you think trading a 1st, even a late first to keep the backup goalie, then i dont know what to tell you. That to me is terrible asset management. But you do you boo.
            17 jui à 0 h 12
            #20
            Roster Architect
            Rejoint: mar 2021
            Messages: 1,846
            Mentions "j'aime": 623
            Quoting: F50marco
            If you think trading a 1st, even a late first to keep the backup goalie, then i dont know what to tell you. That to me is terrible asset management. But you do you boo.


            You ain't lucky enough to have me as your boo. Lmao.
            F50marco a aimé ceci.
            18 jui à 21 h 14
            #21
            Rejoint: avr 2018
            Messages: 313
            Mentions "j'aime": 73
            Quoting: F50marco
            I think you may have misunderstood me. Me not losing sleep over it isn't because I think Allen isn't good or valuable. On the contrary. Im not losing any sleep over it because replacing him will not be hard to do. Lost of great options available. Lots of teams willing to trade goalies for picks and Habs have tons of picks.

            Allen was really good this year for the Habs but he's not the only good goalie out there. Thats why im not worried.


            How things have changed since you wrote that post hahahaha
            Wow. Price. Now I am losing sleep. Dude, WTF is going on ???????
            Price, Weber, Danault, Drouin, all unprotected: WTF!
            18 jui à 21 h 31
            #22
            Rejoint: mai 2015
            Messages: 18,104
            Mentions "j'aime": 5,418
            Quoting: Fran615
            How things have changed since you wrote that post hahahaha
            Wow. Price. Now I am losing sleep. Dude, WTF is going on ???????
            Price, Weber, Danault, Drouin, all unprotected: WTF!


            Im still not worried. Frankly Im even more ecstatic then before.....

            Seattle isn't taking Price but if for some reason they want to be bold and do, that's still a win for the Habs.

            Seattle takes Price, Habs now have 10.5M to replace him and are out from under that contract which in years 3-4-5 when Price will be in his late 30's will look bad.
            Seattle doesn't take Price, then nothing changes for the Habs. They keep all their goalies and lose a player that they can easily replace. Byron, Kulak, Drouin , etc.
            Fran615 et pinslack a aimé ceci.
             
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