Well said!!

Even if they don't buy him out, they should be able to keep all the expiring players and potentially add one or two decent players in free agency

Very well put. I have the exact same thoughts. Theres no need to dump a high pick to dump a vet who's like $2-2.5M overpaid. Worst case he's bought out with a very favourable cap penalty. People will compare how Tampa and Vegas we offering a 1st to take Johnson and Fleury last summer (both of whom are better players than Neal). But they were literally like $5M+ over the cap at the time. It was a necessity to clear space. Come the offseason as you pointed out, Oilers will not have much cap pressure. Obviously the more space the better, but they aren't in cap hell or anything.

Depending on the free agents Holland targets and if he doesn't has plans to spend to the max, I could very well see Neal riding out one more year just to save another year or two on the buyout penalty.

People get very heated on here though on this topic, so expect to get lots of "well it you don't want give up a 1st + to get rid of Neal, then you can keep him".

Exactly, like he is an actual NHL player and why bother trading an asset for 1 million bucks in saving. Another player will cost 1 million. So 900k savings is bad management.

Your plan is very reasonable and realistically what will happen, maybe we even wait till his last year to buyout.

Personally I'd like to see him moved somehow, even if it's with a 1st rounder. If we buy him out we'll have 4.3mill in total cap penalties till 2023. Thats a killer in the flat cap era. That 1.9mill in cap penalties from Neal might not seem like much but it could be the difference between a good team and an amazing team. Neal's 1.9mill penalty till 2025 is brutal imo, and likely costs us valuable assets down the line (trading for players with salary retention, unloading other contracts to avoid further penalties). We want to win a cup soon, and that almost 2mill anchor will make it even more challenging, just as we finally overcome our previous cap penalties. A guy like Nygard being paid under 1mill does more to help the team currently

Its fine if you think its frustrating to hear that you need to pay to dump him.

The fact is, that yes, you could buy him out for 1.9M x 4

Doesnt mean that he has value in a trade. His point production carried by PP points while tied to the best powerplay in the league with two franchise superstars.

If you want to send him to OTT, Id want a 1st or comparable value, and I'm sure that other fans agree.

If anything, history has shown pretty unanimously that trading a 1st or a high end prospect to get rid of an unwanted contract has almost never really worked in that teams favor.

With that said, nothing wrong with someone stating that would be their price they would want in that hypothetical trade. EDM would also be in their right, as well as wise, to look elsewhere to create cap space.

Trading a 1st to get rid of a contract has to be the absolute last resort. Im not sure any team really has ever really been at that point. So for the teams that did do it, IMO it wasn't worth it.

I agree that EDM's cap situation isn't terrible but I think the EDM should to trade Neal even if it includes a 1st. WIth McDavid, Draisaitl, RNH, and Neal being 40.2% of EDM's cap it limits what you can do with depth. In my mind that $1,916,000 could be more use to EDM to sign better depth. Otherwise you turn into the Leafs where every year you have to gamble on depth players like Spezza, Thorton, Vessey, Simmonds, Bogosian, Barabanov, and Lehtonen to fill out the lineup because you cannot afford to pay anyone over $1,000,000.

Plus if there was a year for EDM to trade a 1st it would be this year: the Oilers should make the playoffs, the pick will probably be in the 20s, and with Covid scouting has really messed up the rankings so who knows when anybody is going outside the top 5.

Then... I keep him. Happily!

In what way? Nygard is stuck on the taxi squad, Neal gets regular playing time. Neal's the better player according to Dave Tippett. So I can't agree that it's worthwhile to trading a 1st to get rid of Neal. That cap space simply buys you a bottom-6 forward or two - that's certainly not worth a 1st.

I don't like the dead cap any more than anyone else, so personally I wouldn't buy him out at all. But a buyout is certainly preferable to trading a 1st with him.

Nygard has speed and forechecks hard. I'm not an advanced stats guy but his are much better. Neal was a -20 last season, he's a liability but Tippett likes Neal on the PP so I understand why he's in over Nygard. I'd also sooner keep him till his deal ends rather than buying him out. Keeping Neal is quite costly too considering he's bound to decline further in the next 2 seasons

Our first round pick is likely in the 24-32 range. The chances that prospect makes an impact in the NHL that improves our team is low. Don't get me wrong, draft picks are obviously important but saving the ~$2mill does a lot more for our team in the next 5 years than that prospect most likely could. For example, only 1 prospect from that range in the 2018 draft has made any impact on their team. Odds are high we look back on that 1st round pick and think "hey, I wish we dumped Neal with that draft pick and signed a starting goalie or a first line LW with that $5.75mill"

I'm not arguing that he has value in a trade. I'm saying he's an asset to the team and the options are Keep or Buyout, trading him with an asset is a stupid idea from Edmonton's perspective.

Neal has produced 25 goals & 43 points per 82 games as an Oiler. That's a useful player in this league.

He has value to EDM, not to anyone else is what I am saying.

A cardboard cutout taped to a hockey stick could get 25 goals on the EDM PP with Drai and McDavid bouncing pucks off him.

Hes not a useful player in this league at that cap hit. Hes 3M overpaid. Just because EDM has found a way to use him, doesn't make him useful

Right now, today, Edmonton's 1st round pick is #16 overall. No idea why you think it'll be in the 24-32 range. And you're just thinking for the short-term anyhow - next 5 years - whereas Holland is thinking long-term. BTW, Yamamoto (22nd overall in 2017) certainly made an impact last year and is a big part of this team at a very cheap rate going forward. You can't replace him in free agency for anywhere near what he makes, and that's the beauty of drafting and developing talent in this league.

Think about it this way: how many $1.9M players are you going to sign as UFA's are worth a 1st round pick in trade? Because that's what you're advocating here. Namestikov, Fast, Pitlick, Braun, Borowiecki, Reaves, Grimaldi, Francouz, Jordie Benn, Bellemare, Kinkaid and Polak are all players that have signed in the $1.75-2M range in the past 2 years. None of these guys is worth a first, yet that's the quality of player that $1.9M buys you on the open market.

I never said he did. Strawman argument.


This is so ignorant it's funny.


The cap hit is irrelevant if the team has lots of space. And if they need that space they can just buy him out. It's pretty simple.

The team that receives the 16th overall pick this season missed the playoffs. We are currently in a playoff spot so we couldn't receive that pick as of now. I'm assuming we win a playoff series because we are relatively favoured to do so. That would result in a 24-32nd overall pick. If we finish with a lottery pick I wouldn't do the trade, I'd reassess once the playoffs are over

I think many people are underestimating the damage of cap penalties. It makes things very tricky unless you have multiple huge bargain contracts. We'll already have $2.25mill in cap penalties till 2023, with Neal bought out that's $4.2mill. The highest cap penalty any team I would consider a contender has is under $2mill, we are already fighting an uphill battle as is. Contenders like Colorado and Tampa have no cap penalties. Vegas has 500k in penalties.

The benefit from the extra money doesn't come from signing an extra 3rd/4th liner, it's upgrading on existing players and having TDL flexibility. Hypothetically, say we currently had a 1.9mill buyout penalty get lifted and had the extra money to make an upgrade. What if we upgraded on Archibald at $1.5mill for a guy making $3.4mill? Examples: Kerfoot, Kapenen, Dzingel. That's a big upgrade. Or upgrade on Koski ($4.5mill) with the 1.9mill for a real starter making 6.4mill. Examples: Fleury, Gibson, Markstrom, Hellebyuck. These upgrades are hypothetical, but just show what kind of an upgrade we could make in theory.

The salary cap should rise by 2023 or 2024. That's just as our Sekera buyout and Lucic retention end, leaving us with no more penalties. Imo that would be the perfect storm for a cup run, we gain an extra $2.25mill as our penalties end, and the salary cap increases. Neal's 1.916mill penalty would be there till 2025. Not to mention, if we make moves at future deadlines we'll be needing to throw in extra picks or prospects for salary retention to compensate for Neal's buyout penalty anyways, just get it over with now.

edit: i got a bit carried away but i feel Neal's contract or buyout being on our books makes a stanley cup even more unlikely, we need to do what it takes to avoid that

lol dude sure. The cap hit is irrelevant OKAY

Do you know how to have "multiple huge bargain contracts"? Having good players on ELC's. Do you know how to have good players on ELC's? Keep your 1st round picks.