Forums/Armchair-GM

Hertl is NOT Elite

Créé par: GMs
Date de création initiale: nov 20, 2020
Publié: 20 nov 2020 à 19 h 04
Équipe: 2020-21 Sharks de San Jose
Explications
Hertl is in is prime, 27 yo 2 years remaining before he gets the big payday and that contract won’t probably age well. Hertl have 1 season over 50 points and he is now 27 yo, is he a 1C ? Yes, but he isn’t Elite. Domi did 72 points with MTL and no one ever considered him a 1C and not even close. I know Hertl is better than Domi, but if Domi is a 2C than Hertl is a 1C but not Elite

Thanks !
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Folin, Christian1700 000 $
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20 nov 2020 à 21 h 27
#51
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Quoting: Isles777
Unless you can put your eye test into evidence, its just your opinion. Analytics are evidence based analysis.

All you've done is argue what you like to see in a player, but it still stands that Hertl had a stronger overall impact than all the players I listed.


Ah yes, such a great argument on your part... NOPE

If analytics tell you that «X» has played an awful game then it must be true right?

Ooooooh wait, he actually looked awful because «Y», his D partner, made 2 egregious mistakes in the game that put his teammate in a very difficult situation.


If Hertl has a stronger impact, then why doesn't he stand out like all elite players do?? Look, he's got very good 2 way skills, very good physicality and very good offensive weapons but to claim that he's elite is going too far. x
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20 nov 2020 à 21 h 28
#52
Isles7
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Quoting: mhockey91
it absolutely doesn't stand that hertl had a bigger impact than those players. just your skewed numbers may say it. anyone with a brain knows its not true


how are they skewed? Just because it doesn't fit your narrative - didn't you say you use these skewed numbers to evaluate D? LOL

"anyone with a brain" - I guess tell TBL and Carolina GM to stop letting their director of analytics heavily influence their decisions.
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20 nov 2020 à 21 h 29
#53
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Quoting: mhockey91
100% man! I couldn't agree more. Ellis and Spurgeon two of the most overrated Ds


They're not overrated where they play now. But put Ellis in Josi's shows and Spurgeon in the shoes Suter has been in since like 2012 and see how they do. I'm willing to bet their play quality would drop by quite a bit.

Up to them to prove me wrong, but until they do, they're not elite.
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20 nov 2020 à 21 h 30
#54
Isles7
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Quoting: KakkoForMauriceRichardAward
Ah yes, such a great argument on your part... NOPE

If analytics tell you that «X» has played an awful game then it must be true right?

Ooooooh wait, he actually looked awful because «Y», his D partner, made 2 egregious mistakes in the game that put his teammate in a very difficult situation.


If Hertl has a stronger impact, then why doesn't he stand out like all elite players do?? Look, he's got very good 2 way skills, very good physicality and very good offensive weapons but to claim that he's elite is going too far. x


Analytics can isolate a players impact.

He does stand out, maybe not to you.
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20 nov 2020 à 21 h 30
#55
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Quoting: Isles777
how are they skewed? Just because it doesn't fit your narrative - didn't you say you use these skewed numbers to evaluate D? LOL

"anyone with a brain" - I guess tell TBL and Carolina GM to stop letting their director of analytics heavily influence their decisions.


they are skewed because they say things like how Valeri Nichuskin had a better season than Drai...

anybody who says something this ridiculous has no credibility
https://twitter.com/EvolvingWild/status/1229894276273901573?s=20


if Carolina heavily used analytics they would've have traded a first for Skeji or Tampa a first for Goodrow. or signing Schenn/Bogo. They certainly use analytics but they definitely don't heavily rely on it
20 nov 2020 à 21 h 31
#56
Isles7
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Quoting: mhockey91
100% man! I couldn't agree more. Ellis and Spurgeon two of the most overrated Ds


"D I like to use analytics more"
20 nov 2020 à 21 h 32
#57
Thank You GMJR
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Quoting: Isles777
"D I like to use analytics more"


they're good D, sure, but they are definitely not elite and better than guys like Jones/Letang/Weber, etc..

I find analytics a good tool to tell whose good, and whose bad, but can't determine which players are better than other players.
20 nov 2020 à 21 h 36
#58
Isles7
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Quoting: mhockey91
they are skewed because they say things like how Valeri Nichuskin had a better season than Drai...

anybody who says something this ridiculous has no credibility
https://twitter.com/EvolvingWild/status/1229894276273901573?s=20


if Carolina heavily used analytics they would've have traded a first for Skeji or Tampa a first for Goodrow. or signing Schenn/Bogo. They certainly use analytics but they definitely don't heavily rely on it


its well known that Eric tulsky ( director of analytics for the canes) is pretty much their GM - look it up.

Goodrows underlying numbers are solid. Blake Coleman has incredible underlying numbers, same with maroon. Schenn was a 7D and Bogosian was a low risk signing.
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20 nov 2020 à 21 h 38
#59
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Quoting: Isles777
its well known that Eric tulsky ( director of analytics for the canes) is pretty much their GM - look it up.

Goodrows underlying numbers are solid. Blake Coleman has incredible underlying numbers, same with maroon. Schenn was a 7D and Bogosian was a low risk signing.


solid doesn't merit a first round pick

also I highly doubt Eric tulsky is "pretty much" the canes GM lol. Waddell knows what hes doing there.
20 nov 2020 à 21 h 39
#60
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Quoting: Isles777
Analytics can isolate a players impact.

He does stand out, maybe not to you.


No he doesn't. Until he proves that he can carry his own line, then forget it. Not elite. He literally was the 3rd offensive guy in 18-19 behind Pavs and Couture and the 2nd one last year behind Couture.

It's completely ridiculous to call someone who has yet to prove that he can carry a line or pairing/who is not even the main guy on his team.

You'll probably ask me why I believe Parayko, who wasn't the main guy in STL, is an elite d-man... but of course I have answers to everything.

Parayko never played with players who are much better than him. Yet he's been looking elite since 2018. Also he's been their key defensive defender (not Petro since he did more offense than CP) in 19-20... while looking elite.
20 nov 2020 à 21 h 41
#61
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Quoting: mhockey91
they're good D, sure, but they are definitely not elite and better than guys like Jones/Letang/Weber, etc..

I find analytics a good tool to tell whose good, and whose bad, but can't determine which players are better than other players.


Although there are instances of players who are good/great/elite despite having meh/bad analytics... pretty sure Weber has very average analytics, despite him being a monster
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20 nov 2020 à 21 h 44
#62
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Quoting: KakkoForMauriceRichardAward
Although there are instances of players who are good/great/elite despite having meh/bad analytics... pretty sure Weber has very average analytics, despite him being a monster


yeah forsure, he has average analytics, and jones has average analytics too I believe. neither have analytics that suggest they're "bad". and their own ice results are better than Ellis/Spurgeon
20 nov 2020 à 21 h 45
#63
Isles7
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Quoting: mhockey91
solid doesn't merit a first round pick

also I highly doubt Eric tulsky is "pretty much" the canes GM lol. Waddell knows what hes doing there.


It doesn't matter what they gave up - it clearly worked. A late 1st for two years of a high end 3rd liner. Not bad at all. Goodrow is one of the best shot suppressors in the league.

You're saying what you want to be true, but its well known that Tulsky and his analytics team have a heavy influence on the moves waddell makes. Jason botchford (the athletic) said it on his podcast with Jason paterson (tsn). Pretty sure Friedman mentioned it as well
20 nov 2020 à 21 h 46
#64
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Quoting: KakkoForMauriceRichardAward
No he doesn't. Until he proves that he can carry his own line, then forget it. Not elite. He literally was the 3rd offensive guy in 18-19 behind Pavs and Couture and the 2nd one last year behind Couture.

It's completely ridiculous to call someone who has yet to prove that he can carry a line or pairing/who is not even the main guy on his team.

You'll probably ask me why I believe Parayko, who wasn't the main guy in STL, is an elite d-man... but of course I have answers to everything.

Parayko never played with players who are much better than him. Yet he's been looking elite since 2018. Also he's been their key defensive defender (not Petro since he did more offense than CP) in 19-20... while looking elite.


Hertl does carry his own line
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20 nov 2020 à 21 h 46
#65
Isles7
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Quoting: KakkoForMauriceRichardAward
Although there are instances of players who are good/great/elite despite having meh/bad analytics... pretty sure Weber has very average analytics, despite him being a monster


weber has great analytics
20 nov 2020 à 21 h 50
#66
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Modifié 20 nov 2020 à 21 h 57
Quoting: Isles777
Hertl does carry his own line


Not when you've got Meier, who's a «beast»(for the lack of a better word) on his own.

Carrying a line is like Panarin did in 19-20, because his 2 linemates (Strome and Fast) are much worse than him
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20 nov 2020 à 21 h 51
#67
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Quoting: Isles777
It doesn't matter what they gave up - it clearly worked. A late 1st for two years of a high end 3rd liner. Not bad at all. Goodrow is one of the best shot suppressors in the league.

You're saying what you want to be true, but its well known that Tulsky and his analytics team have a heavy influence on the moves waddell makes. Jason botchford (the athletic) said it on his podcast with Jason paterson (tsn). Pretty sure Friedman mentioned it as well


Oh I’m not denying that it worked. Never denied it once. But that’s a move that at the time of making it, wouldn’t have been viewed positively by the analytics community. That’s my whole point.

Don’t know enough about Tulsky so I can’t comment on that, but you saying “he’s practically GM” is more than likely wrong. He may have influence sure, that’s his job, but he’s not the shot caller
20 nov 2020 à 21 h 54
#68
bhavikp27
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Quoting: KakkoForMauriceRichardAward
It's so frustrating and honestly useless to argue with analytics cult members. They ruined hockey. If we now need to base our opinion on them before watching hockey, then watching the game is useless.


No, it's just that some (eye test) people who only base/justify their point/arguments think they're right but they can't prove it and second, they don't understand or know how to use analytics. It's not useless, first because you're entertained and second, you can see if the eye test matches the analytics.

A player that is good to me with the eye test can be really good for you and one who is average for you could be very bad for me. It all depends of your perception and what you think is good and what you think is bad.

Quoting: KakkoForMauriceRichardAward
sEtH jOnEs (who can literally play 26-27 minutes a game in all situations and look elite in all of them) Is A sEcOnD pAiRiNg D-mAn
SpUrGeOn AnD eLlIs(who aren't even the main defensive weapons on their team) ArE tOp 15 D-mEn


I assume you're using the TOI totals to say " he must be great " which is the case for most players but not every time. Doughty, Ristolainen play big minutes but they're bad. Nemeth-Hronek are Detroit first pair and they played 22:02 and 23:54 of TOI respectively last year while facing the toughest competition but it doesn't mean, they're 1st pair players nor play like 1st pair D. At least you said " and look elite in all of them ", well that's your opinion, it brings us back to my first point, elite for one may not be elite for another.

Agree to disagree for the second part about Ellis and Spurgeon.
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20 nov 2020 à 21 h 55
#69
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Quoting: KakkoForMauriceRichardAward
Not when you've got Meier, who's a «beast»(for the lack of a better word on his own.

Carrying a line is like Panarin did in 19-20, because his 2 linemates (Strome and Fast) are much worse than him


Kane and Labanc were hertls two most frequent linemates.
20 nov 2020 à 21 h 59
#70
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Stay mad you dont watch western games!!! If you had Hertl on your team he would be known as one of the best centers in the league
20 nov 2020 à 22 h 00
#71
Isles7
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Quoting: mhockey91
Oh I’m not denying that it worked. Never denied it once. But that’s a move that at the time of making it, wouldn’t have been viewed positively by the analytics community. That’s my whole point.

Don’t know enough about Tulsky so I can’t comment on that, but you saying “he’s practically GM” is more than likely wrong. He may have influence sure, that’s his job, but he’s not the shot caller


Tampa was/is a win now team. Mainstream media was critical of the trade , not the analytics community. Goodrow is worth 2.5-3 mill and TB has him for two playoff runs at 925 k.

That’s what was said ,
20 nov 2020 à 22 h 03
#72
Thank You GMJR
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Quoting: papishark
Stay mad you dont watch western games!!! If you had Hertl on your team he would be known as one of the best centers in the league


He’d be first line on MTL but that doesn’t say much. As for him being known as “one of the best centres in the league” if he played on MTL that’s pretty ridiculous. He has similar career numbers to domi and nobody said domi was elite lmfao. Mind you, I am aware Hertl is better than Domi, but he is closer to Domi than to an actual elite C like Matthew’s/Barkov/Malkin/Eichal/Point etc...
20 nov 2020 à 22 h 04
#73
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Quoting: Isles777
Analytics can isolate a players impact.

He does stand out, maybe not to you.


Analytics can try to isolate a players impact

At the end of the day they are just models - they are by no means perfect and are not necessarily accurate
20 nov 2020 à 22 h 09
#74
Isles7
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Quoting: moli92
Analytics can try to isolate a players impact

At the end of the day they are just models - they are by no means perfect and are not necessarily accurate


Never said they were perfect, but RAPM is a great tool and it’s a good measure of a players impact
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20 nov 2020 à 22 h 14
#75
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Quoting: mhockey91
He’d be first line on MTL but that doesn’t say much. As for him being known as “one of the best centres in the league” if he played on MTL that’s pretty ridiculous. He has similar career numbers to domi and nobody said domi was elite lmfao. Mind you, I am aware Hertl is better than Domi, but he is closer to Domi than to an actual elite C like Matthew’s/Barkov/Malkin/Eichal/Point etc...


Hertl has dealt with injuries. That is the only thing holding him back. If he stays healthy a whole year you will see numbers like his best year. The points do not tell the full story on this one
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