If we go that route, I'm sure it goes the same maybe better for the Blues if Krug doesn't take a dirty headshot at Thomas ending his series. At least the Gryz boarding won't be looked at as an admirable highlight moment for years to come because of some cool hair.

Either way, unfortunately there is a terrible "tough guy" culture and "Playoffs are a gauntlet" narrative in the sport and best we can do is celebrate the success of our teams that did happen & work to push those attitudes out of it because nobody should like those dirty hits and most people don't but even the cleanest players are driven to dole them out in the playoffs for glory & self preservation (hit them before they hit you)

what value would you move a bottom 6 forward for?

did you read the description? That's just a placeholder for the Seattle expansion pick

do what? Look I get on a value for the money level him being maybe the least worth it depending on what he costs, but the dude who has played best on the left of ROR, who has put up 20 and 30 points respectively, being on pace for 30 & 40 points respectively, all while looking the best in the playoffs including looking greet in the SCF & putting up over 50% CF%& xGF% would ahve to be pretty expoensive to be the one not to keep and he just doesn't really cost that much? Why are people so blindly in love with Blais?

I get it, he isn't terrible, his slapper against Bishop in the playoffs was fun, he had a good AHL year and he doesn't look like he's drowning on a top 6 line, but he's a bottom 6 player who makes some hits. Please everyone, get over him, he's an ok player that's really it

I find myself looking at Walker getting a higher role too Sanford should probably be one to leave tho. He’s inconsistent

The thing with Barbashev is his advanced stats are really not good. This season, Barbashev's Goals Above Replacement is -5 (despite him scoring 10+ goals). Wins Above Replacement is -1, versus Blais' 0.3 and 0.1 in those categories (basically neutral). He's a lot of fun to watch, he scores some goals, he's physical and fights people and that's all well and good, but it's not translating to effectiveness anywhere other than the PK (and I question how much of that is really him and how much of that is him playing with Sundqvist). His defensive metrics at even strength are abysmal. So this whole thing that he's "really good defensively" I think is a reputation that has been mistakenly developed.

It's true that Blais can't play center like Barbashev can, but I would say he's actually more versatile because he can play higher up in the lineup than Barbashev, who I think can't really elevate above the fourth line. I would also say Blais has gotten better every year he's been in the league. It's also allocation of resources- you're already paying Sundqvist 2.75 million to be a fourth liner, which is kind of a lot even though that's a fine contract. I don't know if we should really tie up more million+ contracts in the fourth line. Blais, at least, would be a third liner in this scenario, and, since he has more upside, perhaps higher.

That's why looking at straight points can be misleading- it's no good to put up a bunch of points if people also are putting up a bunch of points against you (the royal you) because you actively made it easier for them to do that- which is what the metrics tell us about Barabshev. People look past that though because he scores some goals.

The real solution is that if Pietrangelo stays there is absolutely no reason to have Faulk on this roster and we should do everything we can to move him. We have more effective options for him in the top four on both hands, so it's a third pairing defensman being payed 6.5 million and not contributing to special teams and that is a worse use of cap space than any combination of Barbashev/Blais/MacEachern.

thomas was already injured, the hit made it worse... and im sorry but krug goes right through the shoulder. ive watched it a million times ive argued here a million times nobody is changing my mind otherwise. that play doesnt happen if perron is whistled for interference on krug by sitting on him and ripping his helmet off but hey im all for letting em play. bigger the hits the better. i dont care about most head shots alot of people want it out of the game, its a contact sport designed for entertainment and unfortunately violence sells... but the grz hit was eerily similar to the one savard took and those are absolute no - no 's in my book. open ice you at least have a chance. thomas could have avoided contact, and krug stopped skating well before contact. regardless. once that game gets to 2-0 on marchands mess up it was over.

Do you know what the % is of a 3rd round picks have NHL careers??

I find myself looking at Walker getting a higher role too Sanford should probably be one to leave tho. He’s inconsistent

oh that's totally fair, I'm looking at expect goal for % relative to linemates. without being relative to linemates you are looking at Barbashe being at 49% xGF and Blais being at 48 xGF% career but Blais being at 50% this year and Barbie being at only 45%, a stark difference (stats per evolving hockey) but if you go relative to teammates (misnomer, because it;'s really relative to line mates in different combos) Blais is -.08GF% relative and Barbashev is .41 relative GF% (admittedly basically on on defense, dude can play D) also on the points it's a primary points difference, while both have the same secondary assists per 60 but those are just noise anyway and both are the same at scoring goals per 60 (this last year, again if you go back farther Barbie has a bigger bump, he actual had a pretty down year this year, likely due to exclusive relegation to the 4th line rather than as people seem to forget, him playing up and down the lines like Blais and Sundqvist in the past) where Barbie gets a huge bump (other than sustaining it through more playing time and putting up better defensive numbers) is primary assists where he puts up almost double the rate of Blais

All of that is 5v5 of course, Barbashev plays more on ST mostly on the kill where the team as a whole does well but a lot of that can be noise

Out of curiousity since WAR is a good concise stat but it can come from different sources with different methodology and I'm curious the breakdown where you get it looking at the evolving hockey and moneypuck breakdowns of possession and primary points (which really is the same any source)

I don't know that I ever see Walker being a regular in the lineup but he's clearly good enough to be an NHL player and should be one of our cheap scratches who gets in 30/40 games a year.

Next year is going to be significant because, assuming Schenn gets moved to wing permanently at some point once Thomas nails down a center spot in the Top 6, that second line LW job is going to be a decision between Blais/Sanford/Schwartz. Schwartz is currently the most effective, but costs the most and would have to commit the most term to. Sanford has the talent and found a little consistency this year but also way outperformed his expected goals (that four goal game helped). Blais looked the best and most consistent without being an analytical liability anywhere, but has injury troubles and who knows if he can really elevate there all the time.

Personally I don't want to commit a lot of money to Schwartz. He has had both consistency and injury troubles in very recent memory as well, and he probably prices himself out.

Ideally I think our roster (semi-long term) looks like this:

Schenn-O'Reilly-Tarasenko
Blais/Sanford-Thomas-Kyrou
Blais/Sanford- 3C - Kostin
MacEachern-Barbashev-Sundqvist
Walker/DLR/Alexandrov/Poganski pick your poison

Dunn-Pietrangelo
Perunovich/Mikkola - Parayko
Perunovich/Mikkola - 3RHD
Bortuzzo

The key to all of this is moving Faulk though. Sanford/Blais/Schwartz/Walker, whoever you want to talk about- we are using our cap space no more inefficiently than on Faulk (assuming Pietrangelo stays of course). We have ample cap space to keep everyone else if we can move Faulk out somehow.

I don't know that I ever see Walker being a regular in the lineup but he's clearly good enough to be an NHL player and should be one of our cheap scratches who gets in 30/40 games a year.

Next year is going to be significant because, assuming Schenn gets moved to wing permanently at some point once Thomas nails down a center spot in the Top 6, that second line LW job is going to be a decision between Blais/Sanford/Schwartz. Schwartz is currently the most effective, but costs the most and would have to commit the most term to. Sanford has the talent and found a little consistency this year but also way outperformed his expected goals (that four goal game helped). Blais looked the best and most consistent without being an analytical liability anywhere, but has injury troubles and who knows if he can really elevate there all the time.

Personally I don't want to commit a lot of money to Schwartz. He has had both consistency and injury troubles in very recent memory as well, and he probably prices himself out.

Ideally I think our roster (semi-long term) looks like this:

Schenn-O'Reilly-Tarasenko
Blais/Sanford-Thomas-Kyrou
Blais/Sanford- 3C - Kostin
MacEachern-Barbashev-Sundqvist
Walker/DLR/Alexandrov/Poganski pick your poison

Dunn-Pietrangelo
Perunovich/Mikkola - Parayko
Perunovich/Mikkola - 3RHD
Bortuzzo

The key to all of this is moving Faulk though. Sanford/Blais/Schwartz/Walker, whoever you want to talk about- we are using our cap space no more inefficiently than on Faulk (assuming Pietrangelo stays of course). We have ample cap space to keep everyone else if we can move Faulk out somehow.

I don't disagree with the fact that the play doesn't happen if Perron is correctly whistled for interference but that play did end Thomas's entire playoffs, i didn't bring up the "what ifs" and i don't caree how much you said you watched the play it was aimed at his head and jars his head, if it hits shoulder first because Thomas defends himself (which I don't see that it did when I watch it so I'm not sure how youa re so sure) it had the same intention and effect as a headhunting

so again, it was a good series, I don't think any of us should celebrate our teams violence or think that it's a personal vice of given players and not an unfortunate sportwide culture that has gotten better since the past and nonetheless should still be worked at to end, but we can celebrate what did happen, unless you want me to gather an army of deligitmizers of 2011 from Vancouver. The fact of the matter is teh Blues were the best team form January on, won a cup they deserved, and are finally given the title the franchise has long deserved but never elevated itself to, the fact that Boston was so good and gave us such a run until the end speaks to how good the team (especially Tuukka rask) was/is, but the cup has been awarded and it's time to move one. This isn't exactly Tampa/Calgary game 6 and nobody thinks their team should lose the cup, but the cups are what they are. i'm playing around with the Blues theoretical future, no need for axe grinding in the comments

I use evolving hockey, mostly because their explanations were the easiest for me to understand on how they calculated their stats .

I'm a patron (which I highly recommend if you have a few bucks a month- not the easiest sell in a pandemic I'm sure) so not 100% on what is available without that, but here's basically the stuff that's informing my Blais>Barbashev opinion

https://imgur.com/a/Hg1XZ87.

Obviously, not saying Blais is a world-beating talent or anything, but for my money, he has had a better impact this season on both offense and defense than Barbashev (not PK), and he has the ability to play up the lineup that Barbashev doesn't have, AND he's cheaper, at least for 2021-22 season. So, if the choice is between them (and again, I really really would like it to not be because I do think Barbashev brings some useful stuff to the table), then it should be Blais over Barbashev every time. I get that Barbashev is a center and that is valuable but we have a lot of center depth on this team already. (O'Reilly/Schenn/Thomas/Sundqvist/DLR/Bozak for now). If he had the talent to step up and be a 3C, then maybe that would be more valuable to keep over Blais, because that could be a future hole on this team, but so far he hasn't done that.

do what? Look I get on a value for the money level him being maybe the least worth it depending on what he costs, but the dude who has played best on the left of ROR, who has put up 20 and 30 points respectively, being on pace for 30 & 40 points respectively, all while looking the best in the playoffs including looking greet in the SCF & putting up over 50% CF%& xGF% would ahve to be pretty expoensive to be the one not to keep and he just doesn't really cost that much? Why are people so blindly in love with Blais?

I get it, he isn't terrible, his slapper against Bishop in the playoffs was fun, he had a good AHL year and he doesn't look like he's drowning on a top 6 line, but he's a bottom 6 player who makes some hits. Please everyone, get over him, he's an ok player that's really it

It’s not the offense I like, his defense is among the best on the team at the moment.

Sanford isn't inconsistent, he's a late bloomer. Guy has been just shy of money for the last few months. I'd like to hope he'll continue this trend of blossoming.

xCF% and xGF% factor in defense, they are possession stats

xCF% and xGF% factor in defense, they are possession stats

everyone wants top tier prospects but team make lots of smaller moves in the meantime to fill needs, Blais fits here. If you want me to find another team who would do Blais for a 3rd that's fine, that's just a good price for him and Boston seemed like a good fit

ok? do you know that Blais' contract isn't free and he means less to the team than say Vince Dunn or Zach Sanford and a 3rd is a good return for a bottom 6 guy? Nobody is trading him for funsies, that's to clear cap space

Where does he fit? show me the lines?
Because ill save you the time and tell you, he doesnt fit

Marhcy - Bergy - Pasta
Debrusk - Krejci - Kase
Bjork - Studnicka - Coyle
Ritchie - Kuraly - Wagner

You wanna sit ritchie? Ok, but then you are playing a perfectly good 3rd liner at 4th line LW

that's an interesting notion because Schenn is a legit top 6 center and a good one and now he's signed long term. Does he get moved to center at all? Does Thomas settle in to either LW for O'Reilly or 3rd line center when Bozak leaves? Thomas has yet to even being a regular NHL center yet as good as he is, I'm not sure Schenn get's moved off for him. Him taking Schenn's spot at top 6 center that seemed inevitable had a lot to do with Schenn walking

Also I was all on board your analytical skepticism towards Barbashev (though I think playing center and primary points mean more than you think and relative to linemates at least evolving hockey and moneypuck actually have Barbie as better) but Schwartz has long been a possession God & Sanford has very good CF% and xGF% (over 51% on both each of the last 2 years) , let alone points and reputation, why is he even in the same convo as those two for other LW in the top 6? I'd really like to see a source that says Blais has better underlying stats than Schwartz and/or Sanford because I'd be very interested in what the methodology is that arrives there because looking at the components separately I can't find a possible path

that's an interesting notion because Schenn is a legit top 6 center and a good one and now he's signed long term. Does he get moved to center at all? Does Thomas settle in to either LW for O'Reilly or 3rd line center when Bozak leaves? Thomas has yet to even being a regular NHL center yet as good as he is, I'm not sure Schenn get's moved off for him. Him taking Schenn's spot at top 6 center that seemed inevitable had a lot to do with Schenn walking

Also I was all on board your analytical skepticism towards Barbashev (though I think playing center and primary points mean more than you think and relative to linemates at least evolving hockey and moneypuck actually have Barbie as better) but Schwartz has long been a possession God & Sanford has very good CF% and xGF% (over 51% on both each of the last 2 years) , let alone points and reputation, why is he even in the same convo as those two for other LW in the top 6? I'd really like to see a source that says Blais has better underlying stats than Schwartz and/or Sanford because I'd be very interested in what the methodology is that arrives there because looking at the components separately I can't find a possible path

oh wow, I wonder why their graphs are so different from the tables on https://evolving-hockey.com/?_inputs_&std_sk_range=%22Seasons%22&std_sk_pos=%22All%22&std_sk_str=%225v5%22&std_sk_age1=%2217%22&std_sk_season=%2220192020%22&std_sk_span=%22Regular%22&std_sk_group=%22Team%2C%20Season%22&std_sk_type=%22Rates%22&dir=%22Skater%20Tables%22&std_sk_toi=%2250%22&std_sk_dft_yr=%22All%22&std_sk_age2=%2250%22&std_sk_table=%22Relative%20to%20Teammate%22&std_sk_team=%22All%22&std_sk_adj=%22Score%20%26%20Venue%22&std_sk_info=%22No%22&std_sk_players=%5B%22Ivan%20Barbashev%22%2C%22Sammy%20Blais%22%2C%22Zach%20Sanford%22%2C%22Jaden%20Schwartz%22%5D (you have to add xGF/60 + xGA/60 etc etc). I usually like those visuals too. i may have to buck up on Patreon

Also yeah, Steen has aged VERY gracefully, he just costs a lot and isn't exactly a top 6 guy anymore