Most Optimized Oilers

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Créé par: BeterChiarelli

Équipe: 2020-21 Oilers d'Edmonton

Date de création initiale: 1 mai 2020

Publié: 1 mai 2020

Mode - plafond salarial: Basique

Description

Effectively an identical AGM as to the one I posted last night, but with Granlund + Hoffman > Hall. The potential for this team to score 300 or more goals in a season is very real, and would make them the sixth team to accomplish the feat in the last 20 years. Arguably the most talented forward group this team has had since the mid-80s. Because Edmonton puts itself right up against the cap, there's no room to run a spare forward. With McDavid, Draisaitl, and Nugent-Hopkins capable of wheeling for long stretches of time, this shouldn't be an issue.

Really don't know how much more I can fudge salaries. Maybe Soderberg comes down a hair and Greiss stays at $3M even. The only drawback of this roster is that Bear cannot be signed long-term.

Flames use their CBO on Lucic: I've added the $750k in savings to Edmonton's cap hit to reflect that.

Corcoran, Finkelstein, and Zummack signed out of the OHL, NCAA, and WHL respectively. I'm under the impression that Corcoran and Finkelstein are not going to sign with their respective clubs. The two CHL grads will join Gruden and Rodrigue in the ECHL and Finkelstein will play for Bakersfield.

Draft:
#20. (RC) Seth Jarvis (Portland, WHL)
#46 (via CBJ). (LW) Lukas Reichel (Berlin, DEL)
#65 (via SJS). (RD) Michael Benning (Sherwood Park, AJHL)
#82. (RW) Brandon Coe (North Bay, OHL)
#98 (via ANA). (G) Jan Bednar (Sokolov, Czech2)

Larsson and the $2.8M in dead cap expiring next year is used to extend RNH with the Hayes contract, "bridge" Yamamoto for 3 years, and find a bottom-pairing RHD replacement. Kassian is sold to Seattle during expansion, and McLeod makes the roster as the #4C next season. I'd anticipate the raise in the salary cap to cover bonus overages for this season.

Signatures de joueurs autonomes

RFA	ANS	CAP HIT
Athanasiou, Andreas	4	3 200 000 $
Bear, Ethan	2	1 650 000 $
Kuffner, Ryan	2	800 000 $
Lagesson, William	2	800 000 $

UFA	ANS	CAP HIT
Granlund, Mikael	4	4 600 000 $
Greiss, Thomas	2	2 900 000 $
Hoffman, Mike	4	6 125 000 $
Söderberg, Carl	2	3 375 000 $

CRÉÉ	ANS	CAP HIT
Corcoran, Connor	3	925 000 $
Finkelstein, Benjamin	3	925 000 $
Zummack, Eli	3	925 000 $

Transactions

EDM

CBO

ANA

Neal, James

EDM

Gáborík, Marián
Gruden, Jonathan
Choix de 2e ronde en 2020 (CBJ)
Choix de 5e ronde en 2021 (EDM)

OTT

Puljujärvi, Jesse [Liste de réserve]
Russell, Kris
Choix de 3e ronde en 2022 (EDM)

Détails additionnels:

Edmonton agrees to pay Russell's July 1st signing bonus

EDM

Choix de 3e ronde en 2020 (SJS)
Choix de 5e ronde en 2021 (DET)

DET

Benning, Matthew [Droits de RFA]

EDM

Weal, Jordan
Choix de 4e ronde en 2020 (ANA)

MTL

Chiasson, Alex

Rachats de contrats

Andrej Sekera: 2 500 000 $
Benoit Pouliot: 1 333 333 $

Transactions impliquant une retenue de salaire

Milan Lucic: 750 000 $ (12.5%)

Enfoui

Jordan Weal: 325 000 $ (1 400 000 $)
Jujhar Khaira: 125 000 $ (1 200 000 $)

Repêchage	1e ronde	2e ronde	3e ronde	4e ronde	5e ronde	6e ronde	7e ronde
2020
2021
2022

FORMATION

VUE À LONG TERME

INTÉGRÉ

TEXTE INTÉGRÉ

TAILLE DE LA FORMATION	PLAFOND SALARIAL	CAP HIT	EXCÉDENTS	BONIS	ESPACE SOUS LE PLAFOND SALARIAL
21	82 250 000 $	82 556 032 $	341 534 $	730 000 $	-306 032 $

Formation

Ailier gauche	Centre	Ailier droit
Granlund, Mikael 4 600 000 $4 600 000 $ C, AD UFA - 1	McDavid, Connor 12 500 000 $12 500 000 $ C UFA - 6	Hoffman, Mike 6 125 000 $6 125 000 $ AG UFA - 1
	Draisaitl, Leon 8 500 000 $8 500 000 $ C, AG UFA - 5	Yamamoto, Kailer 894 166 $894 166 $ (230 000 $$230K) AD RFA - 1
Nugent-Hopkins, Ryan 6 000 000 $6 000 000 $ AG, C UFA - 1	Söderberg, Carl 3 375 000 $3 375 000 $ C, AG UFA - 1	Kassian, Zack 3 200 000 $3 200 000 $ AD UFA - 4
Athanasiou, Andreas 3 200 000 $3 200 000 $ AG, AD UFA - 1	Haas, Gaëtan 915 000 $915 000 $ C UFA - 1	Archibald, Josh 1 500 000 $1 500 000 $ AD, AG UFA - 2
Nygård, Joakim 875 000 $875 000 $ AG UFA - 1

Défenseur gaucher	Défenseur droitier	Gardien de but
Nurse, Darnell 5 600 000 $5 600 000 $ DG UFA - 2	Bear, Ethan 1 650 000 $1 650 000 $ DD UFA - 2	Koskinen, Mikko 4 500 000 $4 500 000 $ G M-NTC UFA - 2
Klefbom, Oscar 4 167 000 $4 167 000 $ DG UFA - 3	Larsson, Adam 4 166 666 $4 166 666 $ DD UFA - 1
Jones, Caleb 850 000 $850 000 $ DG/DD UFA - 2	Bouchard, Evan 863 333 $863 333 $ (500 000 $$500K) DD RFA - 3	Greiss, Thomas 2 900 000 $2 900 000 $ G UFA - 2

Laissés de côté	Liste des blessés (IR)	Liste des blessés à long terme (LTIR)
Lagesson, William 800 000 $800 000 $ DG/DD UFA - 2		Gáborík, Marián 4 875 000 $4 875 000 $ AD UFA - 1

Unités spéciales

Avantage numérique 1
Yamamoto, K.		Draisaitl, L.		Hoffman, M.
	Bear, E.		McDavid, C.

Avantage numérique 2
Athanasiou, A.		Nugent-Hopkins, R.		Granlund, M.
	Bouchard, E.		Klefbom, O.

Infériorité numérique 1
	Söderberg, C.	Archibald, J.
	Nurse, D.	Larsson, A.

Infériorité numérique 2
	Nygård, J.	Haas, G.
	Klefbom, O.	Jones, C.

2 mai 2020 à 6 h 14

#26

aedoran

Rejoint: déc. 2017

Messages: 21,731

Mentions "j'aime": 12,063

Quoting: BeterChiarelli

Unless the plan is to rush Seider, Detroit is not set at RD and has three NHL-caliber defenders on their roster today. Nevermind that Benning is worth a touch more than what Demelo got. No idea how you could justify that low-ball value.

Even is Seider isn't ready a 3rd and a 5th for a 3rd pair defensemen is too much. With Hronek and Lindstrom thats all Benning would be. Although I wouldn't count Seider out yet.

2 mai 2020 à 7 h 29

#27

CD282

Rejoint: mars 2017

Messages: 24,094

Mentions "j'aime": 7,773

Quoting: Leafs_and_Sens_Fan

DeMelo was playing top 4 minutes. Benning was playing sheltered minutes. When the Oilers tried to push him into the top 4 he struggled badly.

I dont mind taking Russell for a 3rd round pick but I wouldn't give a 2nd for Puljujarvi. Dorion isnt the best GM but hes proven hes good at drafting. I'd try to give him as many picks as possible.

This isn't true at all. Look the his stats using NST's line tool when paired with Nurse or Klefbom.

http://naturalstattrick.com/linestats.php?fromseason=20162017&thruseason=20182019&stype=2&sit=5v5&score=all&rate=n&team=EDM&vteam=ALL&view=wowy&loc=B&gpfilt=none&fd=2016-10-12&td=2019-04-06&tgp=2000&strict=incl&p1=8477498&p2=8476988&p3=0&p4=0&p5=0

http://naturalstattrick.com/linestats.php?fromseason=20162017&thruseason=20182019&stype=2&sit=5v5&score=all&rate=n&team=EDM&vteam=ALL&view=wowy&loc=B&gpfilt=none&fd=2016-10-12&td=2019-04-06&tgp=2000&strict=incl&p1=8476472&p2=8476988&p3=0&p4=0&p5=0

2 mai 2020 à 7 h 32

#28

CD282

Rejoint: mars 2017

Messages: 24,094

Mentions "j'aime": 7,773

Quoting: Skyraider112

The Sheahan-Archibald duo was one of the main reasons the Oilers could effectively close out games. To me he is a better option than Haas, Haas can be a 13th forward. Ennis is the exact type of player you want with McDavid because he comes cheap, has enough speed and skill to keep up with Connor, and is a great forechecker. I get that we are all in quarantine and it's a bit frustrating, but it would be great if you were considerate in the way you respond to other users. No need to make cutting remarks

What does his contract have to do with his placement in the lineup? As long as the roster fits within the cap, how much any particular player makes should have no effect whatsoever on any coaching decision.

2 mai 2020 à 7 h 49

#29

CD282

Rejoint: mars 2017

Messages: 24,094

Mentions "j'aime": 7,773

Quoting: aedoran

Even is Seider isn't ready a 3rd and a 5th for a 3rd pair defensemen is too much. With Hronek and Lindstrom thats all Benning would be. Although I wouldn't count Seider out yet.

No it isn't, especially when you consider how effective Benning is in his role. Among 168 players that have played at least 2000 minutes at 5v5 over the past 3 years, Benning ranks 28th in GF%. Among the same players he's 64th in p/60.

He's 25, shoots right and hits like a mack truck. He has more value than a 3rd and a 5th easily, he's in the 2nd round pick territory.

- in a re-draft Benning would likely go in the 35-45 range, putting his value as an early 2nd round pick
- TVR had worse stats when Carolina traded a 2nd for him.
- statistically a 2nd round pick has a 25% chance of hitting 200 NHL games, while a 3rd round pick has a 12% chance. Matthew Benning has played 260 games and counting.

A 3rd + a 5th is practically giving this player away.

ConnorMcHellebucyk et Goilersfan1215 a aimé ceci.

2 mai 2020 à 9 h 30

#30

ConnorMcHellebucyk

Buljujarvi

Rejoint: juill. 2018

Messages: 4,209

Mentions "j'aime": 2,552

Quoting: BeterChiarelli

@Copenhagen @ConnorMcHellebucyk @ConnorMcDavid97 @oilersfan55 @Oilersfan71 @CzechingOut @Mayb81 @Goilersfan1215 @Bluetomorrow83 @jassan28 @hockeyconnor97 @CD282

I don't know how else to further optimize this. This team beats the hell out of the league before asking "who's next?". Someone find Kenny Holland's email and send this to him on an hourly basis. We've earned it.

I’m down lol

Goilersfan1215 a aimé ceci.

2 mai 2020 à 9 h 44

#31

aedoran

Rejoint: déc. 2017

Messages: 21,731

Mentions "j'aime": 12,063

Quoting: CD282

I disagree. For now Hronek, Seider and Lindstrom are just fine. Maybe he is better than Lindstrom now but I doubt he will be after Lindstrom gets a full season under his belt. Detroit also has Antti Tuomisto who is probably going to be pretty good, There was an article on the Athletic about Tuomisto and you'd think his dad that wrote it. From pervious
discussions I know you have a subscription to the Athletic. It just doesn't make sense to give up a 3rd for an RD when Detroit has a couple that are better and several with higher ceilings. It's not like Detroit is going to be a playoff team next season. So why give up a 3rd for something they don't need this instant, Especially when there is a much bigger need for centers, a left defenseman or 2 and a goalie. That's why I don't think he is worth a 3rd a least not from Detroit pov.

2 mai 2020 à 15 h 38

#32

Leafs_and_Sens_Fan

Rejoint: janv. 2020

Messages: 8,370

Mentions "j'aime": 2,275

Quoting: CD282

Yeah but a second round pick could also turn into Bergeron.

If Benning is so good why do Oilers fans keep trying to trade him? It's not like its essential to push Bouchard into playing 10 minutes a night on the 3rd pairing.

@aedoran thoughts?

Quoting: CD282

How did Bear win out on the job then?

4 mai 2020 à 6 h 22

#33

CD282

Rejoint: mars 2017

Messages: 24,094

Mentions "j'aime": 7,773

Quoting: Leafs_and_Sens_Fan

1. Your lotto ticket could win the jackpot.
2. Oilers have too many NHL defensemen. Fans have this irrational desire to keep the ones with the greatest potential and natural ability.
3. Because Bear is better?

4 mai 2020 à 6 h 42

#34

CD282

Rejoint: mars 2017

Messages: 24,094

Mentions "j'aime": 7,773

Quoting: aedoran

I wasn't arguing that Detroit needs or wants him, I was arguing Benning's market value.

Maybe Detroit isn't a good fit for a trade, but it seems to me that you're putting an awful lot of stock in non-blue chip prospects who haven't proven anything yet.

Lindstrom was 45, 0-5-5 -12 in the AHL this year, going into next season with him penciled into the starting lineup is exactly the way to remain at the bottom of the league.

Tuomisto is a 19-year-old playing in a Finnish junior league, he's several years away realistically.

Detroit needs actual NHL players filling roster spots if they want to compete in this league. I'm not saying Benning is necessarily a great fit, but using distant bells as a reason why doesn't hold water.

4 mai 2020 à 12 h 32

#35

Leafs_and_Sens_Fan

Rejoint: janv. 2020

Messages: 8,370

Mentions "j'aime": 2,275

Quoting: CD282

If Benning is as good as you say he is then they should be trading Larsson who has 1 year left on his deal at a higher cap hit and could easily fetch a 3rd.

4 mai 2020 à 13 h 1

#36

CD282

Rejoint: mars 2017

Messages: 24,094

Mentions "j'aime": 7,773

Quoting: Leafs_and_Sens_Fan

If Benning is as good as you say he is then they should be trading Larsson who has 1 year left on his deal at a higher cap hit and could easily fetch a 3rd.

Larsson is worth a LOT more than a 3rd.

4 mai 2020 à 13 h 7

#37

Leafs_and_Sens_Fan

Rejoint: janv. 2020

Messages: 8,370

Mentions "j'aime": 2,275

Quoting: CD282

Larsson is worth a LOT more than a 3rd.

Okay so why not trade him and trade Benning if Benning is a solid top 4 guy? Benning is cheaper and you can get more term on him.

4 mai 2020 à 13 h 16

#38

CD282

Rejoint: mars 2017

Messages: 24,094

Mentions "j'aime": 7,773

Quoting: Leafs_and_Sens_Fan

Okay so why not trade him and trade Benning if Benning is a solid top 4 guy? Benning is cheaper and you can get more term on him.

Personally I wouldn't trade either of them.

4 mai 2020 à 13 h 27

#39

Leafs_and_Sens_Fan

Rejoint: janv. 2020

Messages: 8,370

Mentions "j'aime": 2,275

Quoting: CD282

Personally I wouldn't trade either of them.

Fair enough. But almost every Edmonton post I see you guys are trading Benning. I think that really lowers his value it makes it seem like you guys are desperate to get value out of him.

4 mai 2020 à 13 h 36

#40

CD282

Rejoint: mars 2017

Messages: 24,094

Mentions "j'aime": 7,773

Quoting: Leafs_and_Sens_Fan

Fair enough. But almost every Edmonton post I see you guys are trading Benning. I think that really lowers his value it makes it seem like you guys are desperate to get value out of him.

No, I think it's simply Oilers fans reading the tea leaves: Edmonton has too many NHL defensemen in the roster.

Also there's a tendency among us fans to try and hurry up the future. We can see that Bouchard is going to be a huge part of this team for the next 10-15 years, so we make room for him on the roster this summer. I guarantee you that Holland will go into training camp with at least 3 proven RD in the roster ahead of Bouchard. For me that would be Bear, Larsson and Benning.

I suspect Holland will pick Bear, Larsson and Green and trade Benning.

4 mai 2020 à 13 h 49

#41

Leafs_and_Sens_Fan

Rejoint: janv. 2020

Messages: 8,370

Mentions "j'aime": 2,275

Quoting: CD282

Okay but wouldn't it be much better to trade Larsson than Benning if Benning is as good as you say he is. I mean Larsson isn't an elite defenceman (he's a decent top 4 guy) plus he'd net you a much better return. If you think Benning is a top 4 defenceman that it would be logical to keep him because he will be cheaper, more term and younger...

4 mai 2020 à 14 h 0

#42

CD282

Rejoint: mars 2017

Messages: 24,094

Mentions "j'aime": 7,773

Quoting: Leafs_and_Sens_Fan

No, because Larsson, being a UFA in 2021, won't have to be protected in the Seattle expansion draft. They can leave him exposed and sign him after the draft but before July 1st.

Long-term, neither Larsson nor Benning is likely to beat out either Bouchard or Bear for top-4 duty, so the play is to maximize the value today, minimize the loss to Seattle and then that sets the table going forward.

4 mai 2020 à 14 h 23

#43

Leafs_and_Sens_Fan

Rejoint: janv. 2020

Messages: 8,370

Mentions "j'aime": 2,275

Quoting: CD282

If they take Benning that means they aren't taking any of your other guys. Larsson walks in a year...

4 mai 2020 à 14 h 34

#44

CD282

Rejoint: mars 2017

Messages: 24,094

Mentions "j'aime": 7,773

Quoting: Leafs_and_Sens_Fan

If they take Benning that means they aren't taking any of your other guys. Larsson walks in a year...

I don't think Larsson walks though. I think Holland will try to re-sign him as a future-3RD / shutdown / veteran / PK guy. But only after the draft.

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