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moving Risto read the description

Créé par: gretzkyghosts
Équipe: 2019-20 Sabres de Buffalo
Date de création initiale: 9 août 2019
Publié: 9 août 2019
Mode - plafond salarial: Basique
Description
Moving Risto from top pairing to third pairing.
Give Scandella, Vesey and Sheary prime minutes, then move them at the TDL.
Promote Pilut, Olofsson and Thompson.
Signatures de joueurs autonomes
RFAANSCAP HIT
31 050 000 $
31 050 000 $
31 050 000 $
Offres hostiles
Le salaire annuel moyen (AAV) de l'offre hostile est calculé en divisant la valeur totale du contrat par: 1. La durée totale du contrat, ou 2. Cinq ans
JOUEURAAVCOMPENSATION
Eriksson Ek, Joel1 050 000 $Aucune compensation
Ho-Sang, Joshua1 050 000 $Aucune compensation
Puljujärvi, Jesse1 050 000 $Aucune compensation
Transactions
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TAILLE DE LA FORMATIONPLAFOND SALARIALCAP HITEXCÉDENTS Info-bulleBONISESPACE SOUS LE PLAFOND SALARIAL
2381 500 000 $78 091 667 $0 $3 700 000 $3 408 333 $
Ailier gaucheCentreAilier droit
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2 275 000 $2 275 000 $
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10 000 000 $10 000 000 $
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3 000 000 $3 000 000 $
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9 000 000 $9 000 000 $
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NMC
UFA - 8
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925 000 $925 000 $ (Bonis de performance850 000 $$850K)
AG, C
RFA - 1
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3 650 000 $3 650 000 $
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UFA - 1
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4 125 000 $4 125 000 $
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4 500 000 $4 500 000 $
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6 000 000 $6 000 000 $
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UFA - 4
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1 050 000 $1 050 000 $
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1 550 000 $1 550 000 $
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UFA - 1
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700 000 $700 000 $
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Défenseur gaucherDéfenseur droitierGardien de but
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925 000 $925 000 $ (Bonis de performance2 850 000 $$3M)
DG/DD
UFA - 2
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3 875 000 $3 875 000 $
DD
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2 750 000 $2 750 000 $
G
UFA - 2
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2 000 000 $2 000 000 $
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3 387 500 $3 387 500 $
DD
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1 325 000 $1 325 000 $
G
UFA - 1
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2 850 000 $2 850 000 $
DG/DD
UFA - 2
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5 400 000 $5 400 000 $
DD
UFA - 3
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812 500 $812 500 $
DD
UFA - 1

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9 août 2019 à 11 h 13
#1
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You lost me and "give scandella prime minutes"
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9 août 2019 à 11 h 13
#2
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Where is Joki though?
9 août 2019 à 11 h 16
#3
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Scandella is a polarizing figure on this site. I see a lot of posts sending him to the KHL for vodka (not literally) and then someone wants him playing more minutes then Risto.
Risto is another odd one to judge his value. You'd think teams would jump on a young offensive minded dman under a decent contract, but maybe he isnt that good? or maybe Buf doesnt want to deal him?
9 août 2019 à 11 h 18
#4
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Quoting: masterjuddi
Scandella is a polarizing figure on this site. I see a lot of posts sending him to the KHL for vodka (not literally) and then someone wants him playing more minutes then Risto.
Risto is another odd one to judge his value. You'd think teams would jump on a young offensive minded dman under a decent contract, but maybe he isnt that good? or maybe Buf doesnt want to deal him?


We dont pay much attention to this guy
9 août 2019 à 11 h 23
#5
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These RFA signings are A JOKEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEE
gretzkyghosts a aimé ceci.
9 août 2019 à 11 h 30
#6
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How does that benefit the jets?
9 août 2019 à 11 h 44
#7
MisstheWhalers
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Jets don't want Bogosian back ever, I'd rather sign McQuaid, Petrovic or Girardi to a cheap one year contract for RHD depth then trade for a guy that never wanted to be a Winnipeg Jet in the first place, he made a trade request every year he was in Winnipeg and I'm pretty sure that was after Chevy signed him to an extension, good riddance!

I think we'll be fine with the defense the way it is to be honest. Pionk will have a better defense partner then he did in NY, Buff will make Beaulieu look more then serviceable like he did with Chiarot and others and Niku and Poolman are both experienced young players so they're not raw 18 year old rookies, they should transition fairly smoothly and Kulikov is fine on a 3rd pair and he's in a contract year so hopefully he really steps up with increased minutes and looking for another contract.

Also the Jets have some decent defenders they can call up from their AHL team, I really think all this consternation about the Jets defense is overblown, they'll be fine.
9 août 2019 à 11 h 48
#8
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Raise your hand if you think the Sabre's will win the Stanley cup this year.
Raise your hand if you think the Sabre's will make the playoffs this year.
Good no hands raised.
So it is not about this year then is it, it is all about raising the value of the players that do not fit into the teams future, and giving the prospects as much time to develop as possible.
Therefore give prime time to Vesey, Sheary and Scandella. Make them look valuable and at the TDL move them for future Sabres.

Quoting: wojme
You lost me and "give scandella prime minutes"

My friend you need to look beyond today when developing a team. The Sabres are not a playoff team this year, It is all about raising the value of the assets at hand to make the team better for the future.
Quoting: F50marco
Where is Joki though?

Great question, I am thrilled that you asked.
He is with Pilut, Asplund, Olofsson, Thompson, Smith et al getting better in the AHL before playing the NHL full time.
Quoting: masterjuddi
Scandella is a polarizing figure on this site. I see a lot of posts sending him to the KHL for vodka (not literally) and then someone wants him playing more minutes then Risto.
Risto is another odd one to judge his value. You'd think teams would jump on a young offensive minded dman under a decent contract, but maybe he isnt that good? or maybe Buf doesnt want to deal him?

Not even Vodka, trade him with a pick just to move him.
But he has a really good shot from the point, give him PP time and get his stats up raise his value from a 5th or 6th to a 3rd or better maybe.
Same with Vesey and Sheary. Any one (except Girgensons) can score playing with Eichel.
Ristolainen, I am not interested with trading him. Because he has four 40 pt seasons, we tend to think he has reached his prime, he will start the season at 24 yo. Burns, Letang, Chara did not show promise until they were about that age. Carlson was 27 yo, Gustafsson was 25.
Quoting: littlejerryseinfeld
We dont pay much attention to this guy

LOL, you just did.
Quoting: CBJ4CUP
These RFA signings are A JOKEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEE

First, I am glad some one noticed the signings.
Second, yes and no. Ho-Sung may have worn out his welcome on the Island, Puljujärvi appears that he does not want to play for the Oilers, but Eriksson Ek is highly unlikely, that that salary will not be matched.
9 août 2019 à 11 h 50
#9
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Quoting: gretzkyghosts
Raise your hand if you think the Sabre's will win the Stanley cup this year.
Raise your hand if you think the Sabre's will make the playoffs this year.
Good no hands raised.
So it is not about this year then is it, it is all about raising the value of the players that do not fit into the teams future, and giving the prospects as much time to develop as possible.
Therefore give prime time to Vesey, Sheary and Scandella. Make them look valuable and at the TDL move them for future Sabres.


My friend you need to look beyond today when developing a team. The Sabres are not a playoff team this year, It is all about raising the value of the assets at hand to make the team better for the future.

Great question, I am thrilled that you asked.
He is with Pilut, Asplund, Olofsson, Thompson, Smith et al getting better in the AHL before playing the NHL full time.

Not even Vodka, trade him with a pick just to move him.
But he has a really good shot from the point, give him PP time and get his stats up raise his value from a 5th or 6th to a 3rd or better maybe.
Same with Vesey and Sheary. Any one (except Girgensons) can score playing with Eichel.
Ristolainen, I am not interested with trading him. Because he has four 40 pt seasons, we tend to think he has reached his prime, he will start the season at 24 yo. Burns, Letang, Chara did not show promise until they were about that age. Carlson was 27 yo, Gustafsson was 25.

LOL, you just did.

First, I am glad some one noticed the signings.
Second, yes and no. Ho-Sung may have worn out his welcome on the Island, Puljujärvi appears that he does not want to play for the Oilers, but Eriksson Ek is highly unlikely, that that salary will not be matched.


they will all be matched, there is no reason not to.
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9 août 2019 à 11 h 51
#10
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Quoting: F50marco
Where is Joki though?


This whole thing is a bit of a Joki, no? THREE (count em) offersheets and no compensation going out - and the other teams just don't bother matching! It's fantastic!
9 août 2019 à 11 h 52
#11
NYI
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If you want Ho-Sang we'll trade him to you. Wouldn't cost much.
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9 août 2019 à 11 h 52
#12
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Quoting: gretzkyghosts
Raise your hand if you think the Sabre's will win the Stanley cup this year.
Raise your hand if you think the Sabre's will make the playoffs this year.
Good no hands raised.
So it is not about this year then is it, it is all about raising the value of the players that do not fit into the teams future, and giving the prospects as much time to develop as possible.
Therefore give prime time to Vesey, Sheary and Scandella. Make them look valuable and at the TDL move them for future Sabres.


My friend you need to look beyond today when developing a team. The Sabres are not a playoff team this year, It is all about raising the value of the assets at hand to make the team better for the future.

Great question, I am thrilled that you asked.
He is with Pilut, Asplund, Olofsson, Thompson, Smith et al getting better in the AHL before playing the NHL full time.

Not even Vodka, trade him with a pick just to move him.
But he has a really good shot from the point, give him PP time and get his stats up raise his value from a 5th or 6th to a 3rd or better maybe.
Same with Vesey and Sheary. Any one (except Girgensons) can score playing with Eichel.
Ristolainen, I am not interested with trading him. Because he has four 40 pt seasons, we tend to think he has reached his prime, he will start the season at 24 yo. Burns, Letang, Chara did not show promise until they were about that age. Carlson was 27 yo, Gustafsson was 25.

LOL, you just did.

First, I am glad some one noticed the signings.
Second, yes and no. Ho-Sung may have worn out his welcome on the Island, Puljujärvi appears that he does not want to play for the Oilers, but Eriksson Ek is highly unlikely, that that salary will not be matched.


Not one of these teams are not matching those contracts, they are prospects, they arnt giving them up for nothing LMAOO
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9 août 2019 à 11 h 53
#13
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Quoting: MisstheWhalers
Jets don't want Bogosian back ever, I'd rather sign McQuaid, Petrovic or Girardi to a cheap one year contract for RHD depth then trade for a guy that never wanted to be a Winnipeg Jet in the first place, he made a trade request every year he was in Winnipeg and I'm pretty sure that was after Chevy signed him to an extension, good riddance!

I think we'll be fine with the defense the way it is to be honest. Pionk will have a better defense partner then he did in NY, Buff will make Beaulieu look more then serviceable like he did with Chiarot and others and Niku and Poolman are both experienced young players so they're not raw 18 year old rookies, they should transition fairly smoothly and Kulikov is fine on a 3rd pair and he's in a contract year so hopefully he really steps up with increased minutes and looking for another contract.

Also the Jets have some decent defenders they can call up from their AHL team, I really think all this consternation about the Jets defense is overblown, they'll be fine.


OK that is fine, I think there are other teams that would want him. I thought the Jets wanted to move (Buffalo favorite name to hear) Perreault, and I know the Jets lost Myers and Trouba so I thought it would be a fit to add a RHD. So each team was trading from surplus to fill a hole.
9 août 2019 à 11 h 58
#14
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I know, I was just sort of goofing off trying to get feed back as you all did. Since none of them were signed I wanted to generate a discussion.
I know that is hard to do on this site, TALK. Most people think this is real life and death. LOL
Edit: When some one does discuss as masterjuddi he is sort of criticized for doing so.
Second edit: It is all about the future, not this year for the Sabres. If they could steal a prospect then that would be icing.

Quoting: johnston3504
they will all be matched, there is no reason not to.

I know, just goofing with them
Quoting: CD282
This whole thing is a bit of a Joki, no? THREE (count em) offersheets and no compensation going out - and the other teams just don't bother matching! It's fantastic!

Well the RFA's are a fantasy for sure.
Quoting: slapshot723
If you want Ho-Sang we'll trade him to you. Wouldn't cost much.

I want him for free, LOL
9 août 2019 à 12 h 4
#15
MisstheWhalers
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Quoting: gretzkyghosts
OK that is fine, I think there are other teams that would want him. I thought the Jets wanted to move (Buffalo favorite name to hear) Perreault, and I know the Jets lost Myers and Trouba so I thought it would be a fit to add a RHD. So each team was trading from surplus to fill a hole.


I've said it on here before but if we're trading Perrault to the Sabres I'd rather have Scandella then Bogosian.
9 août 2019 à 12 h 9
#16
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Quoting: MisstheWhalers
I've said it on here before but if we're trading Perrault to the Sabres I'd rather have Scandella then Bogosian.


Yes, I saw your comment. I will not disagree with your point of view because you know your team better than I.
I made it Bogosian because he played well for the Jets, and Buffalo has 5 NHL quality defensemen. While Perreault is not a first line winger he has value, I have seen other contributors trading him for a 4th, which I think is a little low. Just as I have seen other Sabre ACGM trade Bogosian and Scandella for 4th's or 5th's which I think is also a little low.
So you would do Scandella for Perreault one for one, or would you want Buffalo to add?
9 août 2019 à 12 h 43
#17
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Quoting: gretzkyghosts
Yes, I saw your comment. I will not disagree with your point of view because you know your team better than I.
I made it Bogosian because he played well for the Jets, and Buffalo has 5 NHL quality defensemen. While Perreault is not a first line winger he has value, I have seen other contributors trading him for a 4th, which I think is a little low. Just as I have seen other Sabre ACGM trade Bogosian and Scandella for 4th's or 5th's which I think is also a little low.
So you would do Scandella for Perreault one for one, or would you want Buffalo to add?


I think for the cap space, if you can move any or all of hunwick, scandella, sobotka, okposo, or bogosian for a late pick with no retention and no salary coming back- do it and dont look back.
9 août 2019 à 14 h 10
#18
MisstheWhalers
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Quoting: gretzkyghosts
Yes, I saw your comment. I will not disagree with your point of view because you know your team better than I.
I made it Bogosian because he played well for the Jets, and Buffalo has 5 NHL quality defensemen. While Perreault is not a first line winger he has value, I have seen other contributors trading him for a 4th, which I think is a little low. Just as I have seen other Sabre ACGM trade Bogosian and Scandella for 4th's or 5th's which I think is also a little low.
So you would do Scandella for Perreault one for one, or would you want Buffalo to add?


Well it depends if you think Perreault is a cap dump or not?
I don't really but see how some would think that he is, what I think is the fairest is swapping players and picks, something like say Scandella and a 3rd or 4th for Perreault and a 5th or 6th.
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9 août 2019 à 14 h 12
#19
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Quoting: sabres89
I think for the cap space, if you can move any or all of hunwick, scandella, sobotka, okposo, or bogosian for a late pick with no retention and no salary coming back- do it and dont look back.


This team is not a playoff team even after adding defense and scoring.
Hunwick, Scandella, Sobotka, Sheary and Bogosian contracts all expire next year. I do not think they will be moved for late picks if their value can be increased.
If it is possible to increase the value of them before trading them, is that a good idea or a bad?
Do you know of any last place team that traded their way to the playoffs? I do not, it is slow and painful path that started last year with the addition of Dahlin. The year before the Sabres were last in the league, slowly the team is getting better,
9 août 2019 à 14 h 31
#20
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Quoting: CD282
This whole thing is a bit of a Joki, no? THREE (count em) offersheets and no compensation going out - and the other teams just don't bother matching! It's fantastic!


Oh yeah, don't worry Im not putting too much stock in this but I just thought it was odd not adding one of their up and coming good dman to the roster.
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9 août 2019 à 14 h 35
#21
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Quoting: gretzkyghosts
Raise your hand if you think the Sabre's will win the Stanley cup this year.
Raise your hand if you think the Sabre's will make the playoffs this year.
Good no hands raised.
So it is not about this year then is it, it is all about raising the value of the players that do not fit into the teams future, and giving the prospects as much time to develop as possible.
Therefore give prime time to Vesey, Sheary and Scandella. Make them look valuable and at the TDL move them for future Sabres.


My friend you need to look beyond today when developing a team. The Sabres are not a playoff team this year, It is all about raising the value of the assets at hand to make the team better for the future.

Great question, I am thrilled that you asked.
He is with Pilut, Asplund, Olofsson, Thompson, Smith et al getting better in the AHL before playing the NHL full time.

Not even Vodka, trade him with a pick just to move him.
But he has a really good shot from the point, give him PP time and get his stats up raise his value from a 5th or 6th to a 3rd or better maybe.
Same with Vesey and Sheary. Any one (except Girgensons) can score playing with Eichel.
Ristolainen, I am not interested with trading him. Because he has four 40 pt seasons, we tend to think he has reached his prime, he will start the season at 24 yo. Burns, Letang, Chara did not show promise until they were about that age. Carlson was 27 yo, Gustafsson was 25.

LOL, you just did.

First, I am glad some one noticed the signings.
Second, yes and no. Ho-Sung may have worn out his welcome on the Island, Puljujärvi appears that he does not want to play for the Oilers, but Eriksson Ek is highly unlikely, that that salary will not be matched.


They're not making the playoffs??? Well why the hell are they even playing then??? Just pack up and wait till Eichel and Dahlin are in their primes than try.....lol

Wackier things have happened than the Sabres making it by the skin of their nuts. Believe me, this fan base is going to start murdering people if they don't make the playoffs soon. They may not make it, but they are certainly gonna put every player that will make them better in the lineup to try. You can't possibly rebuild for over a decade. At a certain point a GM has to go for it. He won't be there for much longer, so whats the point of setting it up for the next guy to take over?
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9 août 2019 à 17 h 15
#22
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Quoting: F50marco
They're not making the playoffs??? Well why the hell are they even playing then??? Just pack up and wait till Eichel and Dahlin are in their primes than try.....lol

Wackier things have happened than the Sabres making it by the skin of their nuts. Believe me, this fan base is going to start murdering people if they don't make the playoffs soon. They may not make it, but they are certainly gonna put every player that will make them better in the lineup to try. You can't possibly rebuild for over a decade. At a certain point a GM has to go for it. He won't be there for much longer, so whats the point of setting it up for the next guy to take over?


I think you are one of the more balanced contributors to this site and I value your comments.
Of course I think the team will be better than last year, with the plan I am laying out, they will also be better the following year and the year after that, getting better every year.
I guess I am being a realist that I see about 99 pts needed to make the playoffs, that would be a jump of 23 pts, is that possible as you said any thing is possible.
So how many of the 12 teams that finished ahead of them last year will they be able to jump over?
Tampa, Boston, Toronto, Washington or Carolina most likely not going to miss the playoffs, but the Rangers and Devils (who finished behind the Sabres) made bigger moves than the Sabres, so that is 7 teams who could easily finish ahead of the Sabres.
Jackets, Islanders, Wings, Sens and Flyers I did not see make any major improvements and the Jackets and Islanders IMO slipped significantly, so yes I could see the Sabres being better than any of these five.
That leaves the Canadians, Panthers and Penguins who all need to falter or some from the first 7 for the Sabres to make the playoffs.
Maybe the Penguins are getting to the age that while looking really good just cannot finish (see Blackhawks).
Maybe the Canadians were over achievers last year and they will also slip.
Maybe Bobrovsky will not be that much better than the collection of AHL GK the Panthers had last year.
So yes a playoff is possible, a lot of good things need to happen for it to take place.
Will Jokiharju over Nelson make a big difference, I guess one could say yes or maybe it is better to give Henri some time in Rochester to level out the rough spots. That strategy can be debated, I do not know what is best. Just consider, Pilut was unstoppable in Rochester at the beginning of the year, after his call up, he could hardly buy a point in Rochester.
Thompson after 2 years in the NHL looked over matched. After going to Rochester he was their best player.
Asplund looked terrible his first 45 games in Rochester, then was about a point a game after that.
Would it have better to give Ristolainen another year and a half in Rochester, who knows.
I like the line up I proposed as it gives the team 2 balanced scoring lines and a decent scoring from the 3rd line. If we have a top line that scores 40% of the teams goals next year, we will certainly miss the playoffs again.
I do not know what will be the best line up for Buffalo. Kruger will decide what is the best line up.
I am tired of short range plans and quick rebuilds that lead to last place finishes. After three wasted years of bad trades, bad drafts, bad contracts, bad defense, IMO the rebuild started with the draft last year, so we are one year into a rebuild.
I am also tired of rushing the prospects. I wish Thompson, Mittelstadt and Pilut had played an entire year in Rochester before being called up.
For all of those reasons, I put Vesey and Sheary on the top line and left a half dozen good players in Rochester.
9 août 2019 à 18 h 32
#23
Go Boltz! & Go Avs!
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Modifié 9 août 2019 à 18 h 40
Quoting: F50marco
They're not making the playoffs??? Well why the hell are they even playing then??? Just pack up and wait till Eichel and Dahlin are in their primes than try.....lol


When someone says that they're not making the playoffs: It means the likelyhood of Buffalo Sabres making the playoffs: Slim
For example: I would give right now for the Sabres: Maximum of 20% of making the playoffs, if things go the standard way, without huge injuries or huge trades for the whole year. But offseason not over yet, so things can change, and next month, after a huge trade it can go up to 25-30%. But i just can't see it right now. But you never know...

On the other hand: Boston, Toronto, Tampa: 90% chance to make the playoffs.

You see the difference between those percentages? It's like theese teams in a different kind of league on the same division, than the Sabres. So the Sabres only has a chance for 4th place for the start there.
That's really bad to start a season with odds like that.
But the answer is a couple of names: Matthews, Kucherov, Vasilevsky, Tavares, Bergeron, Marchand etc... These guys not comparable to a guy like Dahlin, who starts his 2nd year, and yes he can be a future superstar in the NHL, but when we talk about next season, we need to value the players from the last season, and add a little, if young, or detract some, if age = over 30 ( general regression).
The biggest problem i see with Buffallo is Goaltending: I just can't see a huge change from last season.
For example Florida for Bobrovsky = i can see a crazy improvement there. So you can bet Florida will be much better = bad for Buffalo.
So yes Buffalo improved some, but not that much to change things dramatically, unless other teams starts to play bad hockey. But what's the chance when Bergeron is healthy that Boston is losing incredible amount of games in next season, when they have a solid defense they can rely on, so only need to score 2-3 goals/ games. They will probably reach ~ 100 points as they usually do in recent years.
Carey Price = voted for best goalie for years in the league = Montreal will probably finish ahead of Buffalo after 2019/2020 reg season ends.

Let's see the power rankings based on my predictions.

From the metro div:
WSH,PIT,Carolina kinda super safe picks for playoffs.
NYR,NYI,NYD = huge improvements = possible playoffs contenders from metro
So these 6 teams, on paper = better than Sabres

PHI kinda same as last year = hit or miss. CBJ = worse than last year for sure.

So Buff would make 6-7th place if they were on the other division. Yes there are miracles, but i just can't see a team with like Crosby,Ovechkin suffering through the whole year = less than ~ 85-90 points. It's kinda unlikely.

Continue the atl div:
Det,Ott = rebuilding = you can bet that they will be under 85 points... = no playoffs

Montreal = kinda same , like philly = around ~ 90 points i would say
Florida = again, super big improvements = better than Sabres, for now.

So if we build a ranking for the Atlantic:
1-3:Bos,Tor,Tampa
4-5:Mtl,Florida
6: Sabres
7: Det
8:Ott


same thing for Metro:
1-3:Wsh,Pit,Car
4-6:NYR,NYI,NJD
7:Phi
8:Col


So the problem is:
5 from Atlantic,6 from Metro = 11 teams right now looking better, based on past season and signings, tradings.

That makes Buffalo the 12th team on the EAST based on power rankings.

So lets say they finish before montreal and florida, which is a reach.
The problem that it's still not looking good, because the 3 NY teams probably makes more points, at least 2 of them next season.
So its really likely it goes 3 from atl and 5 from metro in the case if buff finishes 4th with like 95 points in the atlantic divsion. So 9th place = out of playoffs again.

So thats not looking good, based on my predictions.

But when we look up odds on bookies for conference finishes:
Buffalo:14th




Fair enough, pretty close to my predictions, they predict for Buffalo ( around 84 points for the regular season).
So for Buffalo to make the playoffs, at least 4-6 teams performance would really need to be really bad over the whole season.

As you can see i was generous ranking buffalo on the east the 12th best team at the moment. (compared to the experts who are making the odds)
So i wouldn't be surprised if they finish under 80 points, and miss the playoffs by a mile.

On the other hand, i would be surprised seeing Buffalo making 100 points and make the playoffs.

Anyways, things not looking bright for Buffalo... but i still wish Buffalo Sabres good luck for the next season. And hopefully they prove everybody wrong wink
gretzkyghosts et GMTD a aimé ceci.
9 août 2019 à 19 h 22
#24
Démarrer sujet
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Quoting: F3ruS
When someone says that they're not making the playoffs: It means the likelyhood of Buffalo Sabres making the playoffs: Slim
For example: I would give right now for the Sabres: Maximum of 20% of making the playoffs, if things go the standard way, without huge injuries or huge trades for the whole year. But offseason not over yet, so things can change, and next month, after a huge trade it can go up to 25-30%. But i just can't see it right now. But you never know...

On the other hand: Boston, Toronto, Tampa: 90% chance to make the playoffs.

You see the difference between those percentages? It's like theese teams in a different kind of league on the same division, than the Sabres. So the Sabres only has a chance for 4th place for the start there.
That's really bad to start a season with odds like that.
But the answer is a couple of names: Matthews, Kucherov, Vasilevsky, Tavares, Bergeron, Marchand etc... These guys not comparable to a guy like Dahlin, who starts his 2nd year, and yes he can be a future superstar in the NHL, but when we talk about next season, we need to value the players from the last season, and add a little, if young, or detract some, if age = over 30 ( general regression).
The biggest problem i see with Buffallo is Goaltending: I just can't see a huge change from last season.
For example Florida for Bobrovsky = i can see a crazy improvement there. So you can bet Florida will be much better = bad for Buffalo.
So yes Buffalo improved some, but not that much to change things dramatically, unless other teams starts to play bad hockey. But what's the chance when Bergeron is healthy that Boston is losing incredible amount of games in next season, when they have a solid defense they can rely on, so only need to score 2-3 goals/ games. They will probably reach ~ 100 points as they usually do in recent years.
Carey Price = voted for best goalie for years in the league = Montreal will probably finish ahead of Buffalo after 2019/2020 reg season ends.

Let's see the power rankings based on my predictions.

From the metro div:
WSH,PIT,Carolina kinda super safe picks for playoffs.
NYR,NYI,NYD = huge improvements = possible playoffs contenders from metro
So these 6 teams, on paper = better than Sabres

PHI kinda same as last year = hit or miss. CBJ = worse than last year for sure.

So Buff would make 6-7th place if they were on the other division. Yes there are miracles, but i just can't see a team with like Crosby,Ovechkin suffering through the whole year = less than ~ 85-90 points. It's kinda unlikely.

Continue the atl div:
Det,Ott = rebuilding = you can bet that they will be under 85 points... = no playoffs

Montreal = kinda same , like philly = around ~ 90 points i would say
Florida = again, super big improvements = better than Sabres, for now.

So if we build a ranking for the Atlantic:
1-3:Bos,Tor,Tampa
4-5:Mtl,Florida
6: Sabres
7: Det
8:Ott


same thing for Metro:
1-3:Wsh,Pit,Car
4-6:NYR,NYI,NJD
7:Phi
8:Col


So the problem is:
5 from Atlantic,6 from Metro = 11 teams right now looking better, based on past season and signings, tradings.

That makes Buffalo the 12th team on the EAST based on power rankings.

So lets say they finish before montreal and florida, which is a reach.
The problem that it's still not looking good, because the 3 NY teams probably makes more points, at least 2 of them next season.
So its really likely it goes 3 from atl and 5 from metro in the case if buff finishes 4th with like 95 points in the atlantic divsion. So 9th place = out of playoffs again.

So thats not looking good, based on my predictions.

But when we look up odds on bookies for conference finishes:
Buffalo:14th




Fair enough, pretty close to my predictions, they predict for Buffalo ( around 84 points for the regular season).
So for Buffalo to make the playoffs, at least 4-6 teams performance would really need to be really bad over the whole season.

As you can see i was generous ranking buffalo on the east the 12th best team at the moment. (compared to the experts who are making the odds)
So i wouldn't be surprised if they finish under 80 points, and miss the playoffs by a mile.

On the other hand, i would be surprised seeing Buffalo making 100 points and make the playoffs.

Anyways, things not looking bright for Buffalo... but i still wish Buffalo Sabres good luck for the next season. And hopefully they prove everybody wrong wink


Beautiful analysis, I agree that the Sabres are in for dark times for a while.
Well they are looking brighter, but it is a long road.
As you are predicting no play off, but better than last year.
As I said, the Sabres lost 3 years of rebuild, if the fans do not understand that, they do not understand hockey.
On the other hand if Dahlin can start imitating Erik Karlsson, Bales get the GK to stop a few pucks and Mittelstadt putting up numbers as Tyler Seguin, who knows what can happen.
You can see how I am lambasted for wanted to develop players and as Littlejerry says, I am ignored.
I am adding you to my watch list, thanks.
GMTD a aimé ceci.
13 août 2019 à 12 h 4
#25
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Mentions "j'aime": 6,768
and @gretzkyghosts

Quoting: F3ruS
When someone says that they're not making the playoffs: It means the likelyhood of Buffalo Sabres making the playoffs: Slim
For example: I would give right now for the Sabres: Maximum of 20% of making the playoffs, if things go the standard way, without huge injuries or huge trades for the whole year. But offseason not over yet, so things can change, and next month, after a huge trade it can go up to 25-30%. But i just can't see it right now. But you never know...

On the other hand: Boston, Toronto, Tampa: 90% chance to make the playoffs.

You see the difference between those percentages? It's like theese teams in a different kind of league on the same division, than the Sabres. So the Sabres only has a chance for 4th place for the start there.
That's really bad to start a season with odds like that.
But the answer is a couple of names: Matthews, Kucherov, Vasilevsky, Tavares, Bergeron, Marchand etc... These guys not comparable to a guy like Dahlin, who starts his 2nd year, and yes he can be a future superstar in the NHL, but when we talk about next season, we need to value the players from the last season, and add a little, if young, or detract some, if age = over 30 ( general regression).
The biggest problem i see with Buffallo is Goaltending: I just can't see a huge change from last season.
For example Florida for Bobrovsky = i can see a crazy improvement there. So you can bet Florida will be much better = bad for Buffalo.
So yes Buffalo improved some, but not that much to change things dramatically, unless other teams starts to play bad hockey. But what's the chance when Bergeron is healthy that Boston is losing incredible amount of games in next season, when they have a solid defense they can rely on, so only need to score 2-3 goals/ games. They will probably reach ~ 100 points as they usually do in recent years.
Carey Price = voted for best goalie for years in the league = Montreal will probably finish ahead of Buffalo after 2019/2020 reg season ends.

Let's see the power rankings based on my predictions.

From the metro div:
WSH,PIT,Carolina kinda super safe picks for playoffs.
NYR,NYI,NYD = huge improvements = possible playoffs contenders from metro
So these 6 teams, on paper = better than Sabres

PHI kinda same as last year = hit or miss. CBJ = worse than last year for sure.

So Buff would make 6-7th place if they were on the other division. Yes there are miracles, but i just can't see a team with like Crosby,Ovechkin suffering through the whole year = less than ~ 85-90 points. It's kinda unlikely.

Continue the atl div:
Det,Ott = rebuilding = you can bet that they will be under 85 points... = no playoffs

Montreal = kinda same , like philly = around ~ 90 points i would say
Florida = again, super big improvements = better than Sabres, for now.

So if we build a ranking for the Atlantic:
1-3:Bos,Tor,Tampa
4-5:Mtl,Florida
6: Sabres
7: Det
8:Ott


same thing for Metro:
1-3:Wsh,Pit,Car
4-6:NYR,NYI,NJD
7:Phi
8:Col


So the problem is:
5 from Atlantic,6 from Metro = 11 teams right now looking better, based on past season and signings, tradings.

That makes Buffalo the 12th team on the EAST based on power rankings.

So lets say they finish before montreal and florida, which is a reach.
The problem that it's still not looking good, because the 3 NY teams probably makes more points, at least 2 of them next season.
So its really likely it goes 3 from atl and 5 from metro in the case if buff finishes 4th with like 95 points in the atlantic divsion. So 9th place = out of playoffs again.

So thats not looking good, based on my predictions.

But when we look up odds on bookies for conference finishes:
Buffalo:14th




Fair enough, pretty close to my predictions, they predict for Buffalo ( around 84 points for the regular season).
So for Buffalo to make the playoffs, at least 4-6 teams performance would really need to be really bad over the whole season.

As you can see i was generous ranking buffalo on the east the 12th best team at the moment. (compared to the experts who are making the odds)
So i wouldn't be surprised if they finish under 80 points, and miss the playoffs by a mile.

On the other hand, i would be surprised seeing Buffalo making 100 points and make the playoffs.

Anyways, things not looking bright for Buffalo... but i still wish Buffalo Sabres good luck for the next season. And hopefully they prove everybody wrong wink


Jebus! All that to say that buffalo wasn't making the playoffs? Tell me something I don't know. All I said, is they aren't going to just pack up and not try because they were predestined to not make the playoffs beforehand based on odds.........

My comment was in jest to basically writing the team off Aug 9th so they basically should pack up shop now. I don't think they will make the playoffs either.

As for Jokiharju, he looks to be an NHL'er and he proved he was basically already that in Chicago, chances are he'll have more to learn in the NHL than AHL. The team isn't in tank mode so as much as just playing it safe and rebuilding might be the smart thing to do, the coach and Gm look very much like they are going to ice a team that can win games now. I think that means Joki plays if he's earned it.
 
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