Dubas has built his D the same way. Strong puck moving defensemen. Size doesn’t really matter as long as you can get the puck out with control. With this forward group it’s all you need.

Barrie is great at it, but you put him in a defensive roll I think he will be misused.

Babcocks line decisions worry me so much so that I don’t think he will maximize this team.

DYBALA 100%

That's a new rumour. The previous rumour was he turned down 10m X 8. Doesn't really matter what offer he turned down previously. If that's the best offer he gets, he may have to sign it or play ball this winter.
The very comparable Aho signed 8.5m X 5. No logical reason he gets that much more than that, despite the overpay for Matthews.

Marner has no power. I agree he can ask for whatever he wants. But I want to make a million bucks. But I bet my boss won’t pay me that.
Facts
-no offersheet has been formally submitted
-rumors,if true, Marner declined some offers due to term And unsure if leafs matching because he wants to stay
-leafs now have 10.55Mil in reserve to go into the season with Mitch. That would mean a bridge deal but still.
-3-4 great comparables from Kane to Aho to Kucherov to point rumers have him around 9.25/6
-no arbitration rights
- saw nylander suck from missing camp and probably doesn’t want that

What power does he have other than hope they suck and Dubas caves...

He isn’t really showing that home town boy love

10x5 is a 1.5AAV overpay.... Aho signing is the starting points. Best comparable there for a long term. Kucherov great comparable for a short term.

I’d say mitch, 7Mil/3 or 9.5/7. Take it or sit and have fun. Negotiate in reality not in your fairyland

Agree, Lukaku can’t even control the ball.

hahahahaha that's literally an insult in the face of Marner and he is taking $10M+

Do i hate when ignorants waveing around with $$ without a Term....

Blah blah blah

If he turned down 10 by 3 he is a moron for not accepting it and Dubas is a moron for offering it.

My numbers were based on facts and history. Which is how all contracts are given. Sure maybe a 8/3 slight overpayment sure, but 10. **** Marner ain’t that good

I was talking about a scenario where Marner doesn't sign by Dec 1, and sits the whole season. And I stand by what I said, Marner is a 60-70 point player without JT.

They supposedly offered him 8 x 10M....and now they went with 3 x 10M.......must be bunch of idiots in that Office tho......

Think again.....

That's where the Clarkson deal comes in. I'm not a cap genius and I don't understand all the specifics, but the likely scenario is that Leafs will keep one of Horton/Clarkson off LTIR if Marner doesn't sign by opening night, and place him on LTIR when Marner signs, where the LTIR will give the Leafs more space (since it helps more for teams that are up against the cap). The whole point of that trade was to give the Leafs more flexibility in case Marner's stalemate drags on into the season.

Dubas didn't cave in December. Nylander signed a good contract (Kevin freaking Hayes got more). Matthews' deal is the problem, both since it's too short for the AAV and since it gives Marner leverage.

No way in hell Marner accepts a 3 x 7 deal, He's not signing for less then what Nylander took.

I think your point about negotiating in reality here is key. There's nothing really to back up Marner's contract ask except agent bully tactics, the threat of sitting out or the threat of an OS that hasn't materialized yet.

If it comes down to it and he refuses to negotiate in good faith based on league comparables I'd rather they let him sit for the year than sign him to something outrageous.

The best thing for the whole league is to let him sit for a year. Call his bluff and then trade him in the off season
I hope the Toronto fans boo his ass every chance they get . Greedy local pos .

Alright folks, i have avoided for a couple of weeks the lots of news about Marner's contract, but now i dived deep into it.
So his agent turned down so far:
10-11 mill $$$ @ 8 years
10 mill $$$ @ 3 years

From the newest article it seems, they are(Marner's agent) not accepting anything over 5 years. However the problem is that Toronto doesn't want to give Marner 5 years, because of the Matthews contract.
So 5,(6),7,8 years are basically done at this point, unless Toronto willing to give ~ 11 mill+, which seems like not the case for now from these around ~ 10 mill offers at various years, they just want to avoid anything over 11mill, and its understandable.
11 mill @ 6 years = overpayment, and what if Marner's agent says no to that as well. So in the end they should offer 11.6 mill @ 6 years? Hell no, thats almost Matthews contract, so for Marners agent = Colossal win.

So lets examine 4 years = UFA = BIG NO from toronto

So all that's left is 1,2,3 years:
1 year seems silly , so next year they start this again, jeez, hell no.
2 years = little better but i think its still not that much, and Marner's agent for 2 years would need to accept even less money, since more years = more money in general. So i think 2 years seems unlikely at this point, but not impossible.

Which brings us to the most likely scenario:
3 years Bridge deal & RFA status after the contracts is expired = negotiations starting again.

So now about the $$$, they don't want to give 11 million, so 10.3-10.8 millions between.

Next offer from Toronto: 10.2-10.4 mill @ 3 years in August. But i think Marner's agent says, no thanks.
Next offer after that 10.4-10.6 mill @ 3 years after September. Probably still no from Marner's agent. Because they really like the 5 years term. So they say no to 3 years unless its really close to Matthews's money.

But here comes the problem, Toronto would need to make moves, to offer more since they have roughly that cap space if i have correct informations from these LTIR cap space. But a little help from additional injuries: +Dermott+Hyman, also LTIR.
So maybe they can offer one last try before season starts(or soon after season starts): ALL-IN from Toronto, take it or leave it deal type:

~ 10.75 million $$$ @ 3 years

That's my current guess, and it would be not good for Toronto, and a huge-huge win for Marner's agent, since Kucherov couple years ago after 60-70 points season signed a " 4.8 mill @ 3 years" bridge deal.
Let's add inflation, more points and RFA market tendency changes(players want more money, than 3 years ago at young age RFA status), and taxes in toronto. That would be a fair deal: 9 mill @ 3 years.
So from 4.8 million $$$ ---> 10.75million $$$, do u guys see how crazy is this number? It was only 3 years ago!!! And it looks like its not far from reality at this point.

So one last possiblity, around october maybe Dubas says yes to 5-6 years, to save trouble with the 3 years contract in 2022 to renegotiate again: Then they offer a respectable 10.9 million offer. And agent also says yes to 6 years instead of 5.
10.9 mililon $$$ @ 6 years- so they get 1 more year after Matthews's contract expire. But Marner at the end still doesn't get Matthew's money, which is 11.63.
So it's a small mini-win for Dubas: More years & less money & Marner doesnt sit out except meaningless idk 5-10 games or less. It will hurt only for 3 years, after that it will be an alright contract.
Same with Vasilevsky in Tampa 9.5 million will be bad for next 3 seasons, after that max cap will rise(new tv deal, etc...) so what is now 10 million $$$ will look so much better, when the guys like Hayes getting 10mill+ as well. Yes i know thats UFA but still...

So far it looks like Marner's camp winning and 10.75 mill @ 3 years around type of deal has the highest chance of being reality.
I would say:
3 years - 50%
5 years - 10%
6 years - 30%
Rest 10% or less( like 9.5 mill @ 1 year)

Even though EW Contract Projections: 2019 spreadsheet says:
3 years chance = 2.2%
5 years chance = 20.8% - i would be schocked if its 5 years
6 years chance = 24.4%
8 years chance = 42.6% - this seems like currently under 1%

From these offers and projections you can clearly see, close to 0% chance of any amount of years contract under 10.2 million $$$.
Seems like Dubas is really giving him respectable offers...(not lowballing like Carolina did with Aho like around 6 million $ = offer sheet accepted)
So i'm truly surprised that Marner's agent rejected the 10 mill @ 3 years, so its must be over 10.5 mill what his agent willing to accept at 3-6 years. Can't wait to see the next rejected offer...

If Dubas pulls off anything under 10 million $$$ = Miracle


Good luck!