You are under valuing him 8x$9,790,057 is his actual projection from Evolving Wild
https://hockey-graphs.com/2019/05/17/projecting-nhl-skater-contracts-for-the-2019-offseason/

I don't see this $9.8M figure with the link. Also the poster says $9.5/10M for an 8 year deal. Fewer UFA years equate to a lower price.

Good points, I'm okay with 8.2 on 6 yrs

Will add, Kane is goal scoring winger and Marner is a playmaking winger

that link gave you the methodology this is the sublink to all pending UFA's and RFA's
https://docs.google.com/spreadsheets/d/15E1qqh3OfHvvhbv_pICfKT7VR1jJEVhWQOyKviWLN54/edit#gid=707766415

If you aren't familiar with Evolving Wild, do some research, they are considered the bible of this stuff

Even if that were true, what is your point? Anyway, Kane is as much a playmaker as he is a goal scorer.

Hope Dubas offers Mitch Marner that, So he and his agent can at it. And he can sit out the season. He wants at least $11.5 million per. And wont sign if he doesn't get it. Bottom line.

Stop comparing to a player on a different team who had a different gm. Dubas overpays everyone, tavares is proven so.that is less bad but arguably still an overpay. Matthews and nylander are both overpaid. So if he is worth 8.2 he asks for 12, which he did, then gets 11.7 cause dubas is horrible. He is also better than all other three players so if you compare him with Matthew's he should at least get the same. Dont compare with oane that was many years ago at a different time of the cap and with a different negotiation process. It's not even a fair comparison with kane.

I like.your Kane logic. But the RFA market has changed, and RFAs are now getting closer to UFA money than before. So maybe 9m in more practical in 2019. Unfortunately the Leafs affected the value of RFA overpaying two of their Matthews and Nylander. Marner probably would have happy with 9m if Matthews was, 10.5 (Eichel money) and Nylander 6.4m (less than Pastrak, more than Larkin). But these teams comparison may affect his "happiness" if he "settles" for 9m
This year there are four RFAs forwards with similar production. Point, Aho, Rantanen and Marner. Going to interesting how their contracts compare.

meh. i love posts like these that are loaded with certainty of opinion and some need to be right and make the other person wrong... I could go line by line and break your argument apart, but I'll stop on the second sentence cause there's things to do on a Friday night ..

Dubas overpays everyone, tavares is proven so. it was widely reported that the Sharks offered JT 13M, which he turned down to sign with the Leafs for 11M. 11<13 ...or to make it simple, Dubas underpaid JT based what was on offer in the market..

Marner is going to sign an offer sheet before he takes a deal like that. COL, NYI, and CAR are 3 teams I can see taking a long look at a 12x7 offer. All made the playoffs, All have young 1Cs (MacKinnon, Barzal, Aho) and all have cap space to add even more in free agency.

Incorrect; Kane was always a pass first dynamic playmaker until the last few seasons when he adjusted his game to shoot more.

Well, this contract offer is probably low. But if Mitch is demanding north of 10M then I hope he signs an OS and the leafs let him walk.. although, if there is any truth to the rumours, then if he isn't signed by July 1st he'll be traded, and he won't have the option of picking his favorite OS

Toronto better hope he signs an offer sheet, because they won't get a good trade offer with 0 negotiation leverage.

Eh? But Marner =12M.. so teams will certainly trade for him. And that should be especially true if teams are willing to line up to hand over 4 firsts just to have the privilege of paying him 12M x 7 like you state

What teams? There's 3 teams willing to trade for him. Carolina, NYI, and COL. All are expecting to take steps forward next season. Why would they move roster players and ruin chemistry? I rather move 4 late firsts if I know I'll contend every season.

Eh * 2? Man, I love these blanket statements that some people throw out there as fact..

Really? How do you know there are only 3 teams that are willing to trade for him? That's your example, I doubt you've been on the horn with 30 GMs to get that confirmed..

If Marner's camp is unreasonable, and if the rumours are true that Dubas will trade before July 1st, then I could imagine that Dubas's first step is to get on the phone with each GM across the league, let them know that Marner is available, and ask for each team's best offer..

alot has been changing in the RFA landscape, but one thing that remains is that guys coming off their elc's don't have any say as to where their rights can be traded to... if Marner=12M is true, and not just a bunch of nonsense narrative driven by media knuckleheads and Ferris, then I'm sure there would be more than 3 teams that would put an offer together to trade for Marner's rights.. for no other reason than Mitch is so ungodly good that he is worth 12M to an NHL team..

Of course, the possibility exists that he isn't worth 12M, and that he'll come in on a fair contract that reflects his true value.. whether that is with the leafs or some other team.

OK so if Canes offer 12m for Marner, shouldn't the make the same offer to Aho who identical production numbers to Marner the last two years. Same as Rantanen. If comparisons on teams are so important...if Marner HAS to paid Mattews money then Aho and Rantanen better get Marner if they are signed Marner is signed to those teams. Hard to believe that Marner deserves to paid the 2nd highest playing into the league. I think the tipping point for Marner is 10.5m...is any team going trade four first rounders for him.

I think a team can sign their RFA first and then offer sheet Marner. If that what it comes down to, why not? Teams can pay their RFA's less because of the extra year. 12x7=84 for Marner and 11x8=88 for Rantanen/Aho.

If Colorado did that they would have 14m cap space with 8 players to see, not exactly a lot of cap room. Actually I don't think the Leafs have to to overpay Marner. Leafs can use that 10m that have set aside for other players and have those four first rounders, so it's not like the Leafs are left barren, if they don't match an offer sheets But the question still looms does any team want to make offer sheet of over let's say over 11.7 that would make Marner the second highest player in the league? I don't think so.

Not to be a jerk here, but this is where I think Marner's camp's argument falls completely apart...

Marner's camp appears to be starting with AM money because they believe he is the best player on the team. A case can be made for that, but the leafs can simply counter with their position that they put a higher value on 6'3 225 lbs franchise centers who score goals at an unprecedented rate. The two sides can't meet in the middle so marner is traded to Colorado for something (not important for this discussion)

So, Marner now tries to convince Sakic that he's worth 12M because he was the best player on the leafs.. and Sakic points out the fact that he's not the best player on the Av's - that would be MacKinnon, and its not even close, and he comes in at 6M and change. How exactly is Marner worth twice as much as Nate MacKinnon? He's not.... and if he ever ended up getting traded to Colorado, my guess would be that his whole Marner =12M argument would blow up in his face in a hurry... and he and Rantanen would both come in on deals around 10M or less...

So, umm, under the radar, but the Devils absolutely accept that trade offer. Done deal. Nice doing business with you.

I think @palhal and @blowing_the_zone summed the reasons on Marner pretty amazingly.

Good stuff guys.

Then he can sit, it's that simple. Marner has only 1 card in his hand and that's don't play, sure there are offer sheets but anything under 10.5 Leafs match ( basically puts him exactly where I implied, anything over and Leafs take the 4 first rnd picks. Tavares is 75 percent the reason MM went from 60 pts to 95 pts, there is maybe 6 other centers in the league that can do that for MM and none of those teams can afford to offer sheet.

Your welcome, Kappy would be sick with Hall on the left and Hughes as the pivot

I would actually have Kapanen with Nico and Hall, then be able to slot Bratt and Palmieri on the wings for Hughes.

I'll sweeten the pot and throw an additional 3rd round pick at you for Kapanen. Done deal