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Weber vs subban update

Créé par: CaptainFlynnt
Équipe: 2018-19 Canadiens de Montréal
Date de création initiale: 7 févr. 2019
Publié: 7 févr. 2019
Mode - plafond salarial: Basique
Description
For those still keeping track:

Shae Weber:
31 GP, 9 G, 11 A, 20 PTS, +17, 81 shots, 66 hits, 60 blocks
PK Subban:
37 GP, 4 G, 14 A, 18 PTS, +9, 92 shots, 30 hits , 42 blocks

Weber has the edge in 5 of the 7 categories, despite subban playing 6 more games.

This post is just for the people that think this trade was terrible, when in reality it is pretty even, and arguably a necessary change for the habs.

Another fun fact to consider, at the time of the trade:
- Subban had $58M remaining over 6 years ($9.667M / yr)
- Weber had $54M remaining over 10 years ($5.4M / yr)

Who do you think is the better investment?
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7 févr. 2019 à 22 h 50
#1
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Looking at this current team:
- Petry for a 2nd round pick
- Danault and a 2nd (Romanov) for weise and fleischman
- Drouin (9 pts in last 3) for Sergachev (healthy scratch)
- Tatar, Suzuki, 2nd for pacioretty
- Domi for Galchenyuk
- Byron off wiavers
- Kotkaniemi (great draft choice)
- Kulak for AHLrs
- Armia + picks for buying out Mason

And about 90% of people wanted bergevin fired? This guy is underappreciated. Look at that body of work.

What were his bad moves again?
- Signing Alzner
- refusing to overpay radulov? (Somethind dubas failed to do with nylander.)
- letting a 39 year old markov, who chose to represent himself, move on

I think it's time to give the guys some respect.

And to be honest those that were surprised when the habs declined the past couple years should take a look at the prospect pool the habs had when bergevin took over. Previous management traded all of there draft picks, and although a couple of picks have busted (Scherbak, McCarron, DLR) at least Bergevin has tried to build through the draft.
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7 févr. 2019 à 22 h 58
#2
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Quoting: CaptainFlynnt
Looking at this current team:
- Petry for a 2nd round pick
- Danault and a 2nd (Romanov) for weise and fleischman
- Drouin (9 pts in last 3) for Sergachev (healthy scratch)
- Tatar, Suzuki, 2nd for pacioretty
- Domi for Galchenyuk
- Byron off wiavers
- Kotkaniemi (great draft choice)
- Kulak for AHLrs
- Armia + picks for buying out Mason

And about 90% of people wanted bergevin fired? This guy is underappreciated. Look at that body of work.

What were his bad moves again?
- Signing Alzner
- refusing to overpay radulov? (Somethind dubas failed to do with nylander.)
- letting a 39 year old markov, who chose to represent himself, move on

I think it's time to give the guys some respect.

And to be honest those that were surprised when the habs declined the past couple years should take a look at the prospect pool the habs had when MTL took over.


they still should he just fixed his own mess .

he not only let the mess in the AHL fester until Lavals opening season dissapointment sparked change thats been amazing .

2012 -2015 were horrible years for building around youth and not all of it can be blamed on the draft .

MB pulled Mccarron and Leblanc out of US Development to play up north and both had their development nose dive and career's suffer because of it .
When MB took over he had 3 first round picks in his system to develop then got Galchenyuk ,Scherbak and Maccarron .

It wasnt until Timmons internal Promotion and overhaul of the Draft Dept brought in Eric Crawford before we began drafting ridiculously good players in up to 5/7 round over mulitple years including us getting a kotkanemi instead of making the mistake of grabbing a Svechnikov because he was ranked higher and trying to make him a Center .(which is what they did with chucky who missed 2/3 junior years and only player Center a handfull of games in his rookie season before coming to MTL)


Timmons needs to be GM he's been cleaning up our habs joke of a development since being promoted in 2014 at which point he's been promoted steadily since all the way to Assistant GM in charge of Development and Prospects
7 févr. 2019 à 22 h 59
#3
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Webers contract is gonna look real bad pretty soon though
7 févr. 2019 à 22 h 59
#4
Formerly Jamiepo
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Weber>Subban and always has been. The only thing I see better about subban is his age. So at some point soon Subban will be >Weber. Hopefully by then he retires and the cap hit is Nashville’s problem.
7 févr. 2019 à 23 h 3
#5
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Quoting: flamesboy
Webers contract is gonna look real bad pretty soon though


Right before it goes back to the preds...
7 févr. 2019 à 23 h 15
#6
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Quoting: flamesboy
Webers contract is gonna look real bad pretty soon though


Why exactly? You of all people (I'm assuming you're a flames fan) should understand. Giordano is 35 years old and having the best season of his career. He is the best defenseman in the NHL this season. Weber doesnt show any signs of slowing down. The guy plays the position smart, he eliminates players with his size and reach, and he has a cannon from the point. That's all he needs to do to be effective.
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7 févr. 2019 à 23 h 15
#7
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Quoting: Jamiepo
Weber>Subban and always has been. The only thing I see better about subban is his age. So at some point soon Subban will be >Weber. Hopefully by then he retires and the cap hit is Nashville’s problem.


Habs won trade .... don't forget Weber's leadership and how much better the team and Price have played since their captain's return from his rehab/injury to start season
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7 févr. 2019 à 23 h 32
#8
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Quoting: Billy739
they still should he just fixed his own mess .

he not only let the mess in the AHL fester until Lavals opening season dissapointment sparked change thats been amazing .

2012 -2015 were horrible years for building around youth and not all of it can be blamed on the draft .

MB pulled Mccarron and Leblanc out of US Development to play up north and both had their development nose dive and career's suffer because of it .
When MB took over he had 3 first round picks in his system to develop then got Galchenyuk ,Scherbak and Maccarron .

It wasnt until Timmons internal Promotion and overhaul of the Draft Dept brought in Eric Crawford before we began drafting ridiculously good players in up to 5/7 round over mulitple years including us getting a kotkanemi instead of making the mistake of grabbing a Svechnikov because he was ranked higher and trying to make him a Center .(which is what they did with chucky who missed 2/3 junior years and only player Center a handfull of games in his rookie season before coming to MTL)


Timmons needs to be GM he's been cleaning up our habs joke of a development since being promoted in 2014 at which point he's been promoted steadily since all the way to Assistant GM in charge of Development and Prospects


man look at the habs drafting before bergevin, and more specifically look at the lack of draft picks (they were mostly traded away between 2007 and 2012).

You can't blame Bergevin for "wrecking" leblanc, look where he is right now.. I think most of the blame falls on the player.

Are you trying to blame him for drafting galchenyuk and hoping he would be a #1C? He admitted in an interview he wanted to draft Reilly, but he went with Timmins choice. He still turned Galchenyuk into a #1C (by trading him for Domi).

How do you know who made the decision on the McCarron pick? How do you know who made the call for McCarron to go to the CHL? I just dont feel the same way about you, dont feel like that's all on bergevin. Besides some picks bust, get over it.

"2012 -2015 were horrible years for building around youth and not all of it can be blamed on the draft . "

Yes it can, it takes about 4 years to develop a playe after they were drafted. That's the players from drafted from 2009-12. Lack of pick = lower probability of drafting good prospects, simple as that. Previous management didn't give Timmins much to work with.

Dont get me wrong, I really like what Bouchard in Laval. But what exactly has changed in Laval except for perspective? They are going to miss the playoffs again, and again they lack any sort of talent to actually develop. All of MTL's prospects are either still in juniors, college, or Europe.

So you blame the ahl development but let's be honest, they've never had any prospects of note really worth developing since bergevin has taken over. Does make you wonder what scherbak could have been though.
7 févr. 2019 à 23 h 45
#9
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Quoting: Jamiepo
Weber>Subban and always has been. The only thing I see better about subban is his age. So at some point soon Subban will be >Weber. Hopefully by then he retires and the cap hit is Nashville’s problem.


Seeing as though Weber is already looking into what Chara has done to remain effective into his 40’s very low chance Weber will retire. And who even retires anymore aside from the UFA’s nobody wants, if Weber wants to quit playing he will somehow suffer a career ending injury out of nowhere and end up on LTIR
7 févr. 2019 à 23 h 47
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Quoting: ItWasIn
Seeing as though Weber is already looking into what Chara has done to remain effective into his 40’s very low chance Weber will retire. And who even retires anymore aside from the UFA’s nobody wants, if Weber wants to quit playing he will somehow suffer a career ending injury out of nowhere and end up on LTIR


Pretty much, I doubt anyone has to worry about Weber retiring, unless it is health related. He only makes $1M a year for the last 3 years of his contract though, so not much motivation for him to keep playing if he doesnt want to.
7 févr. 2019 à 23 h 47
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I’ll still take subban Over Weber. Year 1 of the trade Weber had the better season (though subban’s team reached the SCF as the 8th seed so you can debate it)
Year two subban hands down had the better season with a Norris Trophy nominee. This year, Weber’s been great since coming back from injury I’ll give you that. The year isn’t over though.

Overall I’d say subban has had more sucesss on Nashville then Weber in MTL. Stanley cup final appearance and he played a HUGE role, plus a Norris trophy nomination. And I like subbans style way more.
7 févr. 2019 à 23 h 48
#12
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Quoting: CaptainFlynnt
Pretty much, I doubt anyone has to worry about Weber retiring, unless it is health related. He only makes $1M a year for the last 3 years of his contract though, so not much motivation for him to keep playing if he doesnt want to.


Don’t have any confirmation on this but I believe the league has said that if Weber did full on retire, they would help Nashville out as the penalty was related to the old CBA and the penalty on the Preds would be ridiculous, they couldn’t ice a NHL caliber roster with it
7 févr. 2019 à 23 h 50
#13
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Quoting: mhockey91
I’ll still take subban Over Weber. Year 1 of the trade Weber had the better season (though subban’s team reached the SCF as the 8th seed so you can debate it)
Year two subban hands down had the better season with a Norris Trophy nominee. This year, Weber’s been great since coming back from injury I’ll give you that. The year isn’t over though.

Overall I’d say subban has had more sucesss on Nashville then Weber in MTL. Stanley cup final appearance and he played a HUGE role, plus a Norris trophy nomination. And I like subbans style way more.


I think the trade helped both teams honestly

Montreal got a culture change in a blue collar player like Weber taking the reigns in the locker room

Nashville got rid of a franchise icon but gained a superstar, something they have never had in their history
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7 févr. 2019 à 23 h 53
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Quoting: ItWasIn
I think the trade helped both teams honestly

Montreal got a culture change in a blue collar player like Weber taking the reigns in the locker room

Nashville got rid of a franchise icon but gained a superstar, something they have never had in their history


Time will tell who won the trade. Nashville obviously won it long term. Don’t think they’d we where they are right now without subban. Weber has been very good for the Habs, but age is the big factor
7 févr. 2019 à 23 h 53
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Quoting: mhockey91
I’ll still take subban Over Weber. Year 1 of the trade Weber had the better season (though subban’s team reached the SCF as the 8th seed so you can debate it)
Year two subban hands down had the better season with a Norris Trophy nominee. This year, Weber’s been great since coming back from injury I’ll give you that. The year isn’t over though.

Overall I’d say subban has had more sucesss on Nashville then Weber in MTL. Stanley cup final appearance and he played a HUGE role, plus a Norris trophy nomination. And I like subbans style way more.


Kind of unfair to compare year 2, Weber didn't even have a year 2.

Like you said Weber was the better player in year 1 (finished 6th in Norris voting that year as well, subban didnt recieve any votes). Subban played a big role in the cup run yes, but Weber was very good in the series against the rangers for MTL as well, unfortunately other than him radulov and lehkonen no one else stepped up.

This year Weber has been the better player again so far.

The point is it is a pretty even trade overall. Some of the people who freaked out and called the trade a disaster for MTL are just out to lunch.
7 févr. 2019 à 23 h 59
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Quoting: mhockey91
Time will tell who won the trade. Nashville obviously won it long term. Don’t think they’d we where they are right now without subban. Weber has been very good for the Habs, but age is the big factor


How is it obvious long term? Looks like subban is regressing this season and he is just turning 30.

Weber who is 33, looks as solid as ever, despite missing an entire year of hockey.
8 févr. 2019 à 0 h 14
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Quoting: CaptainFlynnt
Kind of unfair to compare year 2, Weber didn't even have a year 2.

Like you said Weber was the better player in year 1 (finished 6th in Norris voting that year as well, subban didnt recieve any votes). Subban played a big role in the cup run yes, but Weber was very good in the series against the rangers for MTL as well, unfortunately other than him radulov and lehkonen no one else stepped up.

This year Weber has been the better player again so far.

The point is it is a pretty even trade overall. Some of the people who freaked out and called the trade a disaster for MTL are just out to lunch.


Quoting: CaptainFlynnt
How is it obvious long term? Looks like subban is regressing this season and he is just turning 30.

Weber who is 33, looks as solid as ever, despite missing an entire year of hockey.


Lmao Subban isn’t regressing he’s having an off year it happens. I still think (and majority of people still think) Habs won that trade. I’ll take Subbans game over Weber’s any day, and subban has a much better contract and is younger. It certainly isn’t as bad as the hall for Larson deal, but subban is still probably a better player. Plus he was adored by MTL fans, and did so much for the community. GMMB and habs ownership didn’t like him because he was bigger than the team (like Roy). Buddy is a rockstar
8 févr. 2019 à 0 h 20
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Based on your specific question...who is the better investment? I'd have to say Subban.

IMO if Nashville put Subban on the market there would be a lot of teams willing to give them a sizeable package

IMO if Montreal put Weber on the market almost every team would be tentative to commit that AAV past Weber's 35th birthday

I could be wrong...but from an 'investment' point of view...I think Subban is the more valuable asset.

Who's the better player? I would have to say Weber...almost hands down right now. Was at the time of the trade and still is. If there were a Winter olympics this winter and NHL'ers were allowed to go...Weber is still one of the first d-men Canada pencils in and slaps an 'A' on his chest...Subban is still a 'maybe' to even make the roster.

I still think Nashville 'won' the trade as I think Subban fits in with his skill and age and where Nashville is competing vs. Weber's age and where the Habs are in their competitive window... but we'll have to see how each guy continues to perform throughout the end of their respective contracts to fully know.
8 févr. 2019 à 0 h 27
#19
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Modifié 8 févr. 2019 à 0 h 37
Quoting: mhockey91
Lmao Subban isn’t regressing he’s having an off year it happens. I still think (and majority of people still think) Habs won that trade. I’ll take Subbans game over Weber’s any day, and subban has a much better contract and is younger. It certainly isn’t as bad as the hall for Larson deal, but subban is still probably a better player. Plus he was adored by MTL fans, and did so much for the community. GMMB and habs ownership didn’t like him because he was bigger than the team (like Roy). Buddy is a rockstar


Stylistically I guess its whoever you prefer, Weber is a good fit for Montreal, I assume subban is a good fit for Nashville.

As for who has a better contract, it remains to be seen.
Weber is playing just as good as subban right now and has a cap hit of only $7.8M vs $9M. People are scared about Webers term, but really as the cap keeps rising, webers contract gets better and better. What will subban ask for in 3 years when he is a UFA? If it's less than $9M then he has already began regressing, however if it is more, than perhaps Webers $7.8M cap hit would be looking even better. Weber can be a top 4 defenceman until he is 40, I have no doubt about it. The only thing that could effect that is injuries, in which case he can be put on IR and his cap hit is gone.

webers contract is better than subbans in my opinion. It's like would you rather have Tavares for 7 years at $11M or Matthew's for 3 years at $13M ($13M because that's the difference in subbans cap hit percentage wise and 3 years because Weber has 4 more years than subban.)

Edit:
And yeah that subban regressing thing was stretch, my bad. Would have to wait until next year to see if the trend continues.
8 févr. 2019 à 0 h 30
#20
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For me it was never a question about who was the better player, I think Weber has the slight edge their. It's about paying a guy until he's 41, instead of 33. I'd take the subban contract over Weber's any day, even though its got a slightly higher cap hit
8 févr. 2019 à 0 h 31
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Quoting: Juice
Based on your specific question...who is the better investment? I'd have to say Subban.

IMO if Nashville put Subban on the market there would be a lot of teams willing to give them a sizeable package

IMO if Montreal put Weber on the market almost every team would be tentative to commit that AAV past Weber's 35th birthday

I could be wrong...but from an 'investment' point of view...I think Subban is the more valuable asset.

Who's the better player? I would have to say Weber...almost hands down right now. Was at the time of the trade and still is. If there were a Winter olympics this winter and NHL'ers were allowed to go...Weber is still one of the first d-men Canada pencils in and slaps an 'A' on his chest...Subban is still a 'maybe' to even make the roster.

I still think Nashville 'won' the trade as I think Subban fits in with his skill and age and where Nashville is competing vs. Weber's age and where the Habs are in their competitive window... but we'll have to see how each guy continues to perform throughout the end of their respective contracts to fully know.


By investment I'm just talking financially, Molson probably loves Bergevin for effectively replacing subban and saving him millions of $$$$.

I disagree with your assesment of Webers trade value. There were people trying to tell this fall that the leafs wouldn't trade Nylander for Weber straight up. I wonder what they would say now. Actually NHL GM's know how valuable Weber is, they would pay a premium to get him if he was available.
8 févr. 2019 à 0 h 35
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Quoting: mk458
For me it was never a question about who was the better player, I think Weber has the slight edge their. It's about paying a guy until he's 41, instead of 33. I'd take the subban contract over Weber's any day, even though its got a slightly higher cap hit


If we we continues to be effective until he is 41 does that change anything? Really he just has to be effective until he is 37 or 38. He only makes $3M when he is 37 and $1M for the remaining 3 years. You know those teams that take player contracts to reach the cap floor? Weber is a perfect fit for that. Only actually costs $1M but boosts your cap by $7.8M.

Regardless I dont know why people think weber will decline. His game isnt based on athleticism whatsoever, unlike subban.
8 févr. 2019 à 0 h 42
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Quoting: CaptainFlynnt
By investment I'm just talking financially, Molson probably loves Bergevin for effectively replacing subban and saving him millions of $$$$.

I disagree with your assesment of Webers trade value. There were people trying to tell this fall that the leafs wouldn't trade Nylander for Weber straight up. I wonder what they would say now. Actually NHL GM's know how valuable Weber is, they would pay a premium to get him if he was available.


I personally wouldn't take Weber for free and I mean that honestly. I said that this off season and I still stand by it. It's honestly too risky of a contract.

It's only saving grace is that a potential recapture penalty might be so severe for Nashville that they'd be willing to trade you assets if Weber retires early so they can find a way to bury him on LTIR instead
8 févr. 2019 à 0 h 54
#24
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Quoting: Juice
I personally wouldn't take Weber for free and I mean that honestly. I said that this off season and I still stand by it. It's honestly too risky of a contract.

It's only saving grace is that a potential recapture penalty might be so severe for Nashville that they'd be willing to trade you assets if Weber retires early so they can find a way to bury him on LTIR instead


You wouldn't take a 1st pairing defenceman for free? Ok, that's fine because he isn't available anyways, but c'mon? Weber is a beast, the habs are 8-1-1 in there last 10 games and Weber plays 25 min / game for them.

What do you honestly think a 1st pairing Dman is worth in this league salary wise? Drew Doughty just signed for $11M. What do you think Karlsson will get this year with the cap inflation? $12M? What do you think Rielly will ask for in 4 more years? $14M (assuming he keeps up this level of play and cap inflation). At that point webers contract will be worth half of what 1st pairing guys are getting, so even if Weber is no longer a 1st pairing guy, his contract is fine.

By the way, there are 8 teams in the league right now that dont even spend within $7.8M of the maximum cap. They could take Weber for free. Some of them would never spend to the maximum cap because they are low budget teams. And since Weber only actually makes $24M over the next 7 years ($3.4M/year). Weber would be a PHENOMINAL investment for a low budget team. So why would you ever be scared about taking on his contract when you could move him any time you wanted to no problem.
8 févr. 2019 à 1 h 4
#25
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Quoting: CaptainFlynnt
You wouldn't take a 1st pairing defenceman for free? Ok, that's fine because he isn't available anyways, but c'mon? Weber is a beast, the habs are 8-1-1 in there last 10 games and Weber plays 25 min / game for them.

What do you honestly think a 1st pairing Dman is worth in this league salary wise? Drew Doughty just signed for $11M. What do you think Karlsson will get this year with the cap inflation? $12M? What do you think Rielly will ask for in 4 more years? $14M (assuming he keeps up this level of play and cap inflation). At that point webers contract will be worth half of what 1st pairing guys are getting, so even if Weber is no longer a 1st pairing guy, his contract is fine.

By the way, there are 8 teams in the league right now that dont even spend within $7.8M of the maximum cap. They could take Weber for free. Some of them would never spend to the maximum cap because they are low budget teams. And since Weber only actually makes $24M over the next 7 years ($3.4M/year). Weber would be a PHENOMINAL investment for a low budget team. So why would you ever be scared about taking on his contract when you could move him any time you wanted to no problem.


Sorry...let me clarify....if I were the Leafs GM...I wouldn't take on that contract for free....and I felt that way in the off season when I thought we could sign Nylander, Matthews and Marner for about $500k less AAV on 8yr terms. Today? I'd want Weber's contract even less so.

Weber is a beast. I tried acknowledging that in my first post saying he's still an automatic Team Canada member... not trying to take away from his level of play right now (and he's certainly looked better this year than I could have anticipated). But no....I don't want any part of that contract because...IMO...it's only a few years away before it becomes an albatross. It may not..but the risk is too high for me that it does.

If Weber had 3 years left on his deal my valuations take a giant swing in the opposite direction...but he's 33 with 6 more years to go. Historically speaking...cap floor teams are ok to accept a draft pick in exchange for a cap dump...but not usually when that contract still has 4+ years on it.

As I said....I think Weber is a great player...but his contract and the Leaf's current cap situation makes it something I don't want any part of
 
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