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Billy739

Billy739
Membre depuis
18 déc. 2017
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Canadiens de Montréal
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Forum: Armchair-GMmer. à 10 h 44
Sujet: Put 3rd line in a blender
<div class="quote"><div class="quote_t">Quoting: <b>JSEB93</b></div><div>If Domi and Accari get firsts and prospects, or Bonino gets a first, we are living in a simulation haha</div></div>

Its just good luck for teams selling that so many teams arent .
On top of that Ryan Oreilly going down hurt the Market
As has Toews reluctance to waive his NMC for anyone so most team accept it'll likely be his choice not bidding war.
Even Derek Grant going down helped drive up the value as less quality piece's that would usually get a 2nd and a prospect arent there.

The less Centers you have the more value those remaining have in a buyers market.
Even if 15/20 contenders choose to let 5 teams get an advantage on them uncontested
There's still a shortage of quality past the top 5 options listed.

If another player goes down like a Horvat god forbid then all the remaining 4 has their value increase.
As would the Lesser Center's value's by proxy

In Today's NHL COL , TBL and STL all made moves including O'reilly , Lehkonen and Miller to highlight just one of the many moves each made to stay ontop.
Sitting on your hands wont get you there, neither will a complete Rebuild as you have a dominant looking core with some good depth pieces and a few holes.
What holes Roy and Cormier dont fill the draft pick cant fix i'm sure you can find by moving Karlsson to a 3rd team.

While its true VGK gets better you just helped feed the beast the devour's itself due to lack of longterm vision.
Sure they're better this year and maybe even next but after that they have to coninuously sacrifice depth to moved out deals to stay compliant.
The rate they're going when the Stars stop signing in VGK without full NMC , it will leave basically them basically like ARZ , just with nicer Casino's.

Best thing that could happen for you is he overachieve there so much this year they re-sign him next year with term and a NMC.
You'll have Roy who's a Powerfoward with speed and size who's got a great shot and even more untapped potential signed to a sweetheart deal with term.
Cormier is the guy you want behind EK65 soaking in all he has to offer as Cormier is a slick playmaker with a high hockey IQ and smooth quick strides.
Even as soon as 1 more season after this one it could be viewed clearly as SJS winning the trade even before we know who they used their 1st round pick to snatch up.

This is real talent and a pick in an overpay because VGK is desperate they need to win now as whether they like it or not their window is closing on a lot of their guys atleast in VGK. They traded away many of their asset's so like FLA i think they'll be forced into a year where retooling is a clear necessity now if you plan on winning .All because they moves away all their picks and prospects to land a lot of established players. That's the Path VGK have been going down for some time

But like i said i like your NJD trade it makes sense.
For Some reason i just see Grier taking Mccrimmon to the cleaners and convincing him it was all his idea lol
Forum: Armchair-GMmer. à 9 h 28
Sujet: Put 3rd line in a blender
<div class="quote"><div class="quote_t">Quoting: <b>Not_Isles5513</b></div><div>I don’t c much incentive for NYI to do this. At this point I’d rather retain on Beau at 50% for the rest of his contract in hopes of getting a better return than this.</div></div>

Im pretty sure whether we need him or not MTL would make an offer.
It likely wouldnt include a 1st round pick but more likely Dvorak with RS to allow you to use him until the TDL after a summer deal then move him at the TDL if he hasnt overachieved.
Not one for one but nothing crazy either as the value would have to be found in the RS of lets say 1/3rd of his salary .
Whether NYI choose to RS when moving Dvorak wont stop offers from coming in with him at 3m cap
Maybe find a way to have VGK pay you to exchange Dvorak for Karlsson who's offense could be re-ignited on a team that doesnt push him to the 3rd line shutdown role when Chandler and Eichel show up.
Cap savings and term are 2 things VGK are desperate for after having to give away their Reigning Vezina winner then pay to move a player who was 47pts in 49 in his last games there, due to cap strain/no leverage to make deals other then at a loss to be cap compliant (atleast as close as they have to be without major blowback)

Actually you could just do an outright 3 way trade
MTL get Beuvillier
VGK gets Dvorak at 3m cap
NYI get Karlsson (it works Capwise as long as Parise doesnt get more then 3m ish)
Forum: Armchair-GMmer. à 9 h 5
Sujet: Put 3rd line in a blender
Horvat, Monahan , Domi , Accari and Bonino are the top 5 Centers available who arent injured past the TDL.
50% faceoff win rate always gets even the poorest players paid at the Trade Deadline.
Plekanec had a career worst before playing for TML in the playoffs , got 2nd round pick and 2 prospects we flipped for Kulak.
Staal was playing so bad they talked about sending him to the AHL because he was so slow he was dragging BUF team down.
MTL paid a 2nd and a 4th round pick i believe it was for him
Hanzal was only off LTIR long enough to be acquired play a few games then return to it . He got a 1st , 2nd and 4th round picks

Plenty of lesser Centers like Barbashev will go for less
But True Centers wont be given away as 20 NHL teams are buying looking for Depth for a playoff run.
Its so scarce out there teams are looking at Faksa , Dvorak and even Duchene are drawing a lot of interest despite their attached term
Teams know that no matter who they face in the playoffs if they're not built to take out TBL or COL they'll fail leaving many teams willing to pay high price's to compete.(including TBL and COL who help drive up the prices by overpaying for players)


After Horvat sets the market high Monahan will by proxy land a 1st round pick and a prospect atleast
Even Domi and Accari are likely to land a 1st round pick and a Prospect based on their ability as role players
Bonino has an outside shot of a 1st round pick or a couple 2nd round picks


Plus we got to Factor in Hughes was overpaid for ever single trade he made last TDL.
He had Conditions attached out the wazoo sure but it was all part of his strategy.
Gotta figure he'll have the same thing happen here too
Mesar, Hutson, Guindon, Barron ,Top 10 FLA pick this year , 5th round pick in 2023 ,2nd round pick in 2024 , 7th round pick in 2024 and the 2 older prospects Heineman/Smilinac.
All that for Toffoli , Chiarot, Kulak, and Lehkonen. No one thought a 1st was possible for any of them alone nor did they see the yield they got as possible.
But Hughes understands the Market is Supply vs demand and while more Aggressive with the pure UFA's if he doesnt have to be rushed he'll hold out for more like with Lehkonen demanding an asset no one else was offering and getting it in exchange for leaving more lucritive offers on the table.
Forum: Armchair-GMmer. à 8 h 16
Sujet: Grier learned the lessons
I like the NJD deal it makes sense for all sides in a rebuild.
Im just not sure that's Grier's angle as it seems more like he's just making it his team now with his changes.

Still think VGK and SJS are going to be making a deal that involves Karlsson.

Timo gives VGK a rental they can use and a way out on the Karlsson deal
It also gives them a chance to wine and dine Timo into staying in VGK at a team friendly price.
But even if he decide's to demand more with Karlsson out that possibility becomes a reality cap wise(just at Martinez expense )


If they Structured the deal right they could make this work without too much growing pain.
Moving Karlsson, Roy , Cormier and a 1st round for Meier and Merkley
Both teams are better after the trade as it gives SJS a way out on Merkley to as fans will assume Cormier was swapped for Merkley when in reality Only Cormier retains real value as Always Injured Merkley becomes Waiver Eligible after this year. Then again maybe Trading Merkley will do for him what it did for Beaudin going from CHI to MTL's AHL teams on pace for a Career best after 4 years Pro with many setbacks he's thriving 13 points in 17 games . The point is while the Value isnt high on Merkley the odds of him rebounding after a system change arent as low.
Forum: Armchair-GMmer. à 7 h 46
Sujet: just do it
<div class="quote"><div class="quote_t">Quoting: <b>Campabee</b></div><div>Dach has more value than Laf same with the Cats pick it has more value than the Rags pick. Montreal obviously very easily passes.</div></div>

You Beat me to it.
That top 10 FLA pick In My Eyes has more value alone then LAF given how stacked this draft is and the fact Michkov is likely to fall into the 7th-10th position due to his 2026 contract in KHL.
That's still a projected top 3 pick even if you have to wait an extra 3 years before you have the option to play him is well worth it.
MTL isnt afraid to Draft Russians in that Position as we took Romanov in the same position and it ultimately lead to Kirby Dach a 3rd OA pick , a win no matter which way you slice it.

If i was giving up that top 10 pick it would likely be for Pierre Luc Dubois's final year of his RFA's rights putting us in the same Position as COL was with Lehkonen help keeping his new contract to a reasonable one with Lehkonen leaving money on the table to stay in COL. MTL could use that pick in hopes PLD would do the same but ultimately as long as he re-signs would be a clear win worthy of trading that pick unlike any deal for LAF

LAF i'd trade for but it would be conditioned to the extreme like FLA's pick was with Chiarot and Tkachuk .
I'd give up 2024's 1st round pick , even Give up Josh Roy who i know will be a better player then LAF but not a better Goal Scorer.
But a mid-late 1st rounder and a top prospect is the best i'd do on LAF as he like Armia just shows no improvement after going in the Top half of the 1st round as Power Forward Goal Scorers.
LAF doesnt have the vision to balance playmaking and shooting . He's a very 1 directional person who can thrive as a top Goal Scorer in the right situations but can never be relied upon to Lead his Line.

I think of him like 6 time Stanley Cup Winner and member of NYR 1994 roster Glenn Anderson was to Messier ,Gretzky even Kurri.
No Shame in it, The NHL needs all type of Role Players even Elite One's and it works as long as they put the team/teammates first as he did (and LAF does )
LAF could be a future HOF'er too but like Anderson he has to do so being a Beta not an Alpha
Forum: Armchair-GMmer. à 7 h 26
Sujet: No trades
After what you put Taresenko through the last few seasons it would be unconscionable to do something like that.
Every Mental Health Awareness even you'd have to humble yourself over how you handled yourselves.


STL Management made a choice in direction and had their time to get Taresenko back on board and happy.
They've failed to the point for him to stay they'd have to be replaced as both can never co-exhist going forward.

IMO you guys will trade him for a fortune and avoid a rebuild drafting Quality in a Deep Draft
Last time STL had two top 30 picks they got Schwartz and Taresenko who set them on a path to the Stanley Cup.
With Oreilly out til after TDL the only chance's of STL getting a 1st round pick lay with Taresenko being traded.

If it was me i'd target NYR they're willing to pay and have pieces that fit STL needs today.
Sure Buchnevich for Blais worked out big time for helping rebuild STL stronger already.
Take advantage of their desire to see Panarin joined by Taresenko
Forum: Armchair-GMmer. à 7 h 10
Sujet: Barbashev asking price
I'm a Barbashev guy since like his Brother does now he lead our Junior team.
That said he's not the right fit for Toronto anymore then Nick Foligno was

You can go out and pay a 2nd round plus a prospect in the open market landing him pretty easy.
But he's better off on a team like VGK,CGY or DET where his role as a secondary faceoff guy and shutdown checker would have the most impact.

For TML from my POV i think Noel Accari Or Radek Faksa makes more sense.
Faksa's a big heavy hitting shut down Power Center whose consistently top 5 in Faceoffs taken by 4th liners while being a consistent team leader in blocked shots.
DAL doesnt need him they got Quality Centers pushed to wing because Faksa isnt the same player when you move him out of a Center Role.

DAL moving his contract now can be active at the Trade Deadline acquiring the Middle 6 RW they'll need for a Playoff Run since Gurianov is on year 3 of his goal scoring decline they'll need to. Faksa gives TML the depth needed at Center for a real run forcing teams to respect all 4 Centers ability's and their size with JT 6'1, DK 6'2 , Faksa 6'3 , &amp; AM 6'3 with 3/4 weight 215-220lbs they cant be pushed around.

DAL might even pay you to take Faksa in the summer.
This TDL though Top Centers available with 50% or around win rate are Horvat, Monahan, Domi , Accuri, and Bonino.
The rest are injured past TDL or their teams suddenly are in Wildcard position after seeded teams took a pounding .
So this TDL someone might actually pay a 2nd and a prospect for Faksa despite his contract, more if they can get a 3rd team to RS.
Outside being about 750k-1m over paid he's an ideal player especially given he's far more likely to steal a puck then turn it over as he's far too territorial in Nuetral Ice for those types of mistakes.

IMO if he was 1m cheaper with the same term i think TML would have already acquired him.
Same issue MTL has had with trying to move David Savard despite him being a good player he's overpaid in a time where only 2 teams are in a position RS during a rebuild.
Because i want any Canadian Team to Win a cup i'll say if you plugged this hole with Faksa it would help fortify your Defense and Transitional game which is where MTL despite being worse outplays you.
I gotta say its a trend i see when i see Toronto games and Highlights but to be fair its a hard role to fill without overpaying a guy to play at that level.
While Faksa's a Gamble more then the rest he's also easier to move as his 2 remaining years after this are shed.

Accari to a lesser degree checks a lot of the same boxes with far better production accross the boards.
That said Head to Head in the Playoffs Faksa has better Quality in his runs and production plus he's a better shot blocker.
But both would fix what i percieve as TML's single biggest issue in their control of the Neutral Zone
Forum: Armchair-GMlun. à 23 h 36
Sujet: Trade Deadline
You're missing why he was acquired.
Foligno has been the main enforcer for years and the league's best bar none IMO.
But as Kaprizov rise's so does his role on the team going from career bottom 6 to constant top 6.
He's hit 15 minute average all 3 seasons KK has been in the NHL taking full advantage with his first twenty goal season with 23 total.


Reaves is important because he allows Foligno to keep evolving into a bigger role (With Duhaime helping Reaves cover that role full time.)
Reaves importance goes beyond his points its about him being The Sherriff on the Ice and despite his aging hands still shows why he was a Golden Gloves boxer
(didnt win anything but still)


I am Positive he'll get his 1000 career PIM in Minnisotta with the Wild this year and likely re-sign next season.
They're building a team tought enough and skilled enough to make a deep run for the next few years.
His best shot at another cup is staying where he's at
Forum: Armchair-GMlun. à 23 h 23
Sujet: Trade Deadline
<div class="quote"><div class="quote_t">Quoting: <b>Wildnochance</b></div><div>Proposal from Montreal fans are always funny..nobody wants your crappy player. Wild aren't trading reaves, nor adding 2nd for your cap dump</div></div>

Wild fans are just as baffling at times.
But you notice how i didnt make it about Prejudice .
Your Emphasis on it being the only way in which you can see them made the comment malicious.

There is morons in all walks of life.
Pretending otherwise as a rule means you're Ignorant by Choice which can only be defined one way in my books.
If you have a point to make do so on its merrits as the world has enough people who take away more then they contribute to society.

This post is bad but as you'll see below its a chance to help enlighten someone to a POV they might have overlooked.
Forum: Armchair-GMlun. à 23 h 18
Sujet: LAS VEGAS GOLDEN KNIGHTS
<div class="quote"><div class="quote_t">Quoting: <b>HockeyIsMyPassion61</b></div><div>:laugh :laugh Nice Troll jobs, Too bad Pavelski just re-signed back with Dallas. So he sure as hell isn't waiving for Vegas.

Mark Stone doesn't waive for dumpster fire Chicago.

Pavelski sure as hell isn't waiving for cellar dweller Montreal either.</div></div>

Depends on who we'd be Retaining Salary on his Current deal for at the Trade Deadline.
Monahan came here and has suitors lined up and suddenly the idea of him as a UFA went from 1-2 million no term to 4m plus with term according to experts like Friedman, Lerbun and Oneill.

IF Pavelski thought DAL was building around the youth and passing on him i think he'd be fine as long as he's given the maximum amount of options.
Going to MTL playing with Slafkovsky , Caufield , Dach or Anderson gives him good odds of showcasing his talents as well as he did in DAL as a Mentor on a Youth line.
(Anderson thrown in cause i didnt have a 4th young winger worthy of top 6 )

MTL RS 50% and moves Pavelski a month from now after he's played some more games showing a change in scenary wont stop his production.
Then i'd be thinking a Pavelski (@2.75m cap) and 3.5m on next years deal to EDM for Puljujarvi , Lavoie and a conditional 2nd round pick in 2024 becomes a 1st in 2023 if EDM makes SCF

EDM replaces Puljujarvi x3 for less cap this year and almost exactly the minimum JP is due next year for the cost of Lavoie who's struggling to find his place since Turning Pro where he's on the small side for a big guy and unable to take advantage of players physically in the same way as junior where he dominated. Still have potential and shows consistency but at this point he's more likely a AHL All Star Regular and occasional call up the way things are going . I do believe Developing in Montreal 30km and 25 minutes from his Hometown will make a huge difference like we seen in Anthony "Laval Rocket" Richard who's become Laval's top Scorer almost Effortlessly earning his 3rd call up at age 26 after NSH cut ties with him. He didnt stay up more then 7 games but he got his first NHL goal and an assist with some pretty creative offensive chances and thats on someone who is no where near the talent with potential like Lavoie .

After this year we'll be able to get Lavoie on Waivers anyways so its a Puljujarvi like loss where poor development has diminished their value in most of the 31 teams eyes. For MTL they're rebuild and always injured in desperate need of bodies so gambling on Puljujarvi and Lavoie would be worth it. As for why DAL wouldnt target these guys is because they cant RS but most important they got these type players in Tufte and Back who are actually better developed and closer to the NHL then what EDM offers.

I just wanted to point out Rebuilding or not people want to come here for a reason.
Klingberg while facing off against MTL said he'd be excited if things work out this summer and he gets to play a home game for the CH.
To play a home game even if its just 1 game in a CH jersey will always being appealing to players
Forum: Armchair-GM25 déc. 2022 à 13 h 30
Sujet: never
<div class="quote"><div class="quote_t">Quoting: <b>ARMCHAIRGMOFTHEYEAR</b></div><div>Rather Keep Hayes Tbh.

The whole Buyout thing seems unlikely. I know it was reported but I really dont think Larry Brooks has much sources in Philly given Him and Torts have history of hating each others guts.

In addition, Hayes is still a decent 2C that puts up numbers. Why would Montreal recieve an absolute Haul for retaining less and Philly gets stiffed.

Xhekaj sure isnt worth that much.</div></div>

In the comment section for the trade it says MTL is the only team Retaining Salary.
Pretty sure at the top of the post the motivation for it is listed as PHI getting off with no salary retained and his full contract cleared.

Hayes only shot at a return is in a deal like Faksa + Khudobin for Hayes package
Forum: Armchair-GM25 déc. 2022 à 13 h 12
Sujet: never
I tried being objective by taking Xhekaj out and asking if it do it ?
The answer was unlikely.

Then i asked if Ken Hughes history suggests he would given his many public statements on never doing this with our players let alone for another team.
It quickly became apparent he'd have no interest in helping NYR out while giving away the teams best Alexi Emelin style player when teams have to respect when he's on the ice despite being a bottom pair guy currently playing a 6th/7th Defensman role as it stands now.

MTL needs its cap the next 4 years
i just dont see the upside when we are stilll after PLD this summer
Plus according to Klingberg he woulda loved to sign in MTL and he still might this summer(as per his interview with MTL media in our first game vs ANA this season)
While i see the return is big a later 1st is the biggest upside to this deal
Jones while good is a LD that falls behind Ghule, Harris,Xhekaj,Hutson , Kovaecvic and Beaudin just ahead of Norlinder, Trudeau and Struble.

Beaudin has 6 pts in 23 NHL games to 8pts in 38 NHL games.
We got him on the cheap and since coming home to Quebec is almost a point per game player for the first time since Junior.
If we didnt just get him i could see entertaining Jones to play as first call up for LD but we got Beaudin now


Not saying the value isnt there , just that the situation vs the reward doesnt see MTL doing this deal today. 2 years ago for sure they'd have done it under Bergavin
But i doubt Hughes would ever agree
Forum: Armchair-GM25 déc. 2022 à 12 h 37
Sujet: Price of WIFI
<div class="quote"><div class="quote_t">Quoting: <b>Db1899</b></div><div>if you're going just by points for rookie defenseman in projecting them, then your argument holds no weight. They are two completely different defenseman. Xhekaj does not have the skillset to drive his D pair.

you sound like someone who can't afford to go on vacation lol

<img class="for_img" src="" alt=""><img src="https://i.ibb.co/TktJ271/Screen-Shot-2022-12-25-at-12-23-54-PM.png" alt="Screen-Shot-2022-12-25-at-12-23-54-PM">"&gt;</div></div>

Every Defensman and person for that matter is "different "
I'm arguing Role and Projection and at not time did i say their style's were the same.

Its like the English Language doesnt matter anymore.
I say in plain English what i mean and you come back with what you think i actually meant.
Its like dealing with my mother-in-law and yes sadly vacations are mandatory , if they werent i'd have less time dealing with the inlaws.

People who have success in life tend to care about the details.
People who cant do that unsurprisingly become resentful of those around them .
Lashing out becomes unavoidable to the point recalling why they're angry leaves them lost in thought.

You keep trying to explain why Gretzky isnt Gordie Howe
While i can look at the Context as see Gretzky grew up to be Gordie Howe (and more)
For me Newtons laws of Motion define life as "every action has an equal and opposite re-action"
That's just part of the foundation of the evolution of Modern society the helped birth the world of Science into a Mainstream accepted practice.
Most things in life can be boiled down by this theory , all except your views on hockey which absolutely make no sense at all.

All i keep hearing in my head is "No one can be this willfully obvlivious , but someone can be this bored a troll "
Forum: Armchair-GM25 déc. 2022 à 12 h 16
Sujet: Price of WIFI
Dobber Rankings

Forwards

Easy conversion – 8.0 for 80 points, 6.0 for 60 points, and so on.

Defensemen

10.0 for 70+ points
9.5 for 65
9.0 for 62
8.5 for 58
8.0 for 55
7.5 for 52
7.0 for 48
6.5 for 45
6.0 for 42
5.5 for 40
5.0 for 37
4.5 for 35
4.0 for 32
3.5 for 30

Goalies

9.5 to 10.0 for elite level goalies (rare)

7.5 to 9.0 for Top 10 type of potential NHL starters

6.0 to 7.0 for moderate/lower-end NHL starters

5.0 to 6.0 for 1A/1B goalies

3.0 to 4.5 for backup goalies


While Defensman and Goalies maintain their rankings with some consistency.
The ELC determine's the forwards fate as far as his rankings with many who's recieved 8 or 9 during drop to 7-7.5 after ELC expires.
One things for sure they dont give forwards especially wingers the same shelf life
While it seem high for now its always changing even Caufield just finally hit 10/10 in their re-ranking this fall.
That was years in the making

While Maccelli recieved the same boost that's only from a 7.5 or 8.0 ranking.
Watch Dobber long enough you'll notice these things and remember these names.
Forum: Armchair-GM25 déc. 2022 à 12 h 7
Sujet: Price of WIFI
<div class="quote"><div class="quote_t">Quoting: <b>Db1899</b></div><div>:tearsofjoy :tearsofjoy :tearsofjoy - thanks for proving my point. Orlov anchors the 2nd pair , but is top pair quality . Xhekaj has depth defenseman upside while being a top 5 fighter in the league. They aren’t comparable.

I’m going to assume you celebrate Christmas by your comment (you clearly have a lot of time on your hands with these essays you’re writing). I’m Jewish and just got back from vacation! Appreciate you looking out though!</div></div>PROJECTED MEANS THE SAME PATH ORLOV TOOK
DO I NEED ALL CAPS FOR YOU TO ABSORB 1+1=2?

Orlov's rookie year vs Xhekaj
Put all your free time to use and compare them
Then eat your words and savor them so next time you remember.

Its sad "Projected" is a term thats to complex for this forum.
You've repeatedly compared old man Orlov to Xhekaj despite the comparison being how they started and where they'll end up being similar.


I mean this isnt rocket science and most sources support my logic .
What exactly have you contributed to this conversation again ?


Anyways enjoy your single longely vacation.
Pond hockey is starting and my phone is staying off.
I cant be on call all day to explain and digest common knowledge so its more palitable for you.
Its clear you're incapable of big picture thinking which ive tried to engage in with you multiple times.
You're the type of person to see a pile a lumber and think "Fire" while im the type to think "build a house"

Cant change that reality
So why bother humoring it
Forum: Armchair-GM25 déc. 2022 à 11 h 51
Sujet: Price of WIFI
<div class="quote"><div class="quote_t">Quoting: <b>TheeDjeeEem</b></div><div>Dobber also has Valimaki listed as a top prospect winger for AZU instead of the depth Dman that he is...

Maybe admit you could be wrong in your evaluation and do a DEEP dive into both players instead of ranting about coaching potential into prospects who haven't played in the AHL even

The Vesey comparison wasnt about not signing with his draft team... it was about him not being anywhere near as talented in the NHL as he was in NCAA vs grown men, not boys. Many teams were very wrong about him.</div></div>

He's like Beaudin in CHI but before being put on the market last year was a 7.5 nhl likelyhood.
His progress stalled in his drafted system making him look like a 1st round bust dropping him to 6.5 depite being younger at 23 then Valamki.

But at 24 Valamaki isnt considered a bust yet its important to note he was claimed on Waives with many many people wanting him
Because ARZ sucks so bad they got priority and TBH since going to ARZ he's actually showed improvement like Beaudin has in MTL's AHL system at almost a point per game.
Valamaki made the NHL so he got to keep his projected upside at a high percentage but his fall was coming just like Beaduin's did .

You're comparing Defensman to Wingers and claiming you dont get why Dobber projects them differently. . . .
They do this with all wingers who by 23 often have their NHL upside ranked 5 or lower .
Defensman dont face these same issues

The fact you're still on about Vesey says it all , now trying a different angle as if it changes anything.
NCAA has gotten stronger every year as shown by the amount of talent taken in the draft every year from the NCAA growing.
While Vesey was a big fish in a small pond that pond is no overcrowded with talent many of which have quickly climbed the NHL rankings. . . .

This feels like when i take my nieces to hockey games and try to explain how the Junior games we watch are different then the NHL.
In the end you either get development or you dont . But claiming Dobber and its many Professional Scouts are wrong but you're right says a lot.



The fact you're arguing against established site's then saying "maybe admit you could be wrong " is the biggest issue here.
You're smart enough to carry yourself better and you know what admitting when your wrong is but make no room for it as it applies to yourself.
People who dont take their own advise are often ignored based on their own actions, this is such a case.

I'll keep listing sources and context.
You keep ignoring it arguing its the world that's wrong and you know more then a longtime established business based on specifically knowing this subject .
Forum: Armchair-GM25 déc. 2022 à 11 h 40
Sujet: Price of WIFI
<div class="quote"><div class="quote_t">Quoting: <b>Db1899</b></div><div>Orlov is a top pair D and his game is nothing like Xhekaj. Orlov is a puck moving high end two way D with elite 4 way mobility. Xkekaj is more like a Luke Schenn.

Macelli is on pace for 60 points this season as a 22 YO. In his prime he’ll be a 70-75 pt two way winger</div></div>

Not since 2017-18 the only year he was .
Feel free to check but that's the last time he was top pair
Does he play 3rd most minutes on the team most years ,sure
But watch a game and you'll know Orlov's been their Jeff Petry holding down 2nd pair for a decade more often then not.
While i use the Petry example the only context of the comparison i seek to drive home is the logic behind why he's there.

Carlsson like Weber has 1st on lock while making everyone aroung them better.
Orlov on the other hand is a more reserved 2nd pair leader who elevates the play of whomever he's beside.
They play toghether as often as Weber -Petry did and while it did happen for atleast 20-25 games Weber-Petry was never our top pair.
Orlov's Value comes from his Penalty kill ability when he averages 4-6 extra minutes a night as Washington loves getting themselves in trouble.
Without Orlov doing that having a fighter like Tom Wilson just couldnt remain an option while building a contender.


Xhekaj's minutes and production versus Orlov's first 2 NHL seasons is on point
You're trying to ignore the context of the Comparison hearing "lets compare a rookie to one of the older Veterns"
When the statement was they Projected the same and to miss something so profoundly simply just isnt likely.
Its more likely you're just lonely on christmas trying to keep someone chatting with you so you're pushing buttons for attention.
Forum: Armchair-GM25 déc. 2022 à 11 h 13
Sujet: Some Habs - Kings trade ideas
<div class="quote"><div class="quote_t">Quoting: <b>Black61</b></div><div>They do all the time.

Lucic got multiple 1st round picks in value from

Nick foligno as a broken power forward got a 1st as a rental.

We had to add to the josh anderson trade coming off surgery to get him for domi.

And reaves of cpurse.

And i am saying you are OBLIVIOUS to where Arber is at. He has played 32 games. Other dman from the 2019 draft that have played even 20 games this year.....moritz seider.

He has turned the corner into a regular nhler at an age where the vast majority of players (nevermind dmen) havent yet. That alone add insane value.

As far as business goes given the choice tpday between xhekaj and turcotte today the vast majority would say arber is the more valiable asset. Its not close</div></div>

In the context of him signing as a top UFA getting whatever contract he wanted like i stated?
Or are you just one of those people who reads but doesnt absorb topics of conversation?

Foligno was one of 3 centers available at the TDL and having a good year in the faceoff circle and got paid for it.
He's a player , a Captain and a occasionally fights but isnt defined by it like his brother is for example.
But accordingly Markus gets squat despite being the only man in the NHL Tom Wilson loses to regularly , his value is too low to entertain trading.

Anderson isnt a fighter he just gets in fights , about as many as Gallagher does actually , is Gallagher now a considered a Fighter?

Reaves i used to establish the top price someones willing to pay


"Oblivious" being used ironically is hilarious.
"other dman from 2019 draft " Arber isnt drafted SMH , but i dont know him right?
Undrafted at both OHL and NHL levels but lets compare him to one of the top rated NHL drafted defense and claim sanity hahahahahahaha . . .

So to be clear , you're not a business owner ?
Forum: Armchair-GM25 déc. 2022 à 11 h 6
Sujet: Price of WIFI
<div class="quote"><div class="quote_t">Quoting: <b>Db1899</b></div><div>Xhekaj ceiling is a #5 D, macelli ceiling is an elite winger .

Macelli is 5x better than xhekaj right now</div></div>

kinda true ish
Except you're comparing a Dmitri Orlov 4th/5th Defensman like he's on par with a Middle 6 Forward.
Lets face it that's what he is on any team that isnt bottom 5 in the NHL , no one's using him on their top line otherwise.
So Elite can be removed and replace with Future All Star or something to that effect as he'll likely make it on his playmaking /passing skills alone one day.

To me it about even's out.
Minutes vs the roles they play while also considering their projections.
We're basically exchanging Orlov for Burakovsky like there's a huge difference in value outside the TDL(at TDL its supply vs demand so depending on the year either could be more valuable)
While Burakovsky is good it took him until he was 26 to even approach All Star Status which he's still waiting to be granted in his 2nd year of 50+ point pace.
MTL cannot wait that long for a player Dobber projects to be a 48-52 point player in his prime
Forum: Armchair-GM25 déc. 2022 à 10 h 37
Sujet: Price of WIFI
<div class="quote"><div class="quote_t">Quoting: <b>TheeDjeeEem</b></div><div>Maccelli is the player you hope Farrel becomes... remember Jimmy Vesey?

Where exactly is Maccelli at vs where you're at?

He's not ARB eligible and 22 and can feed the puck to Slav/Anderson on your 2nd line for like 8 x 5ish which will age beautifully</div></div>

"Slav/Anderson" has been a line all of what 5 games?
Slaf/Mesar are the future and they need a Center or a Winger capable Center who like Andrew Shaw can help Mesar make that jump the same way Danault did.

If it was me personally Dvorsky in this years draft is how i fill that hole long term.
Slovak line featuring their 3 best forward prospects could be legit as the Russian like was for DET success under Scotty Bowman.
We have not 1 but 2 picks falling where Dvorsky is projected to fall in the draft so odds are he's ours.

If it was me personally i'd trade for Turcotte who was Caufields long time Center.
Turcotte without Caufield has struggled to live up to his projections as a top 6 Center prospect.
LAK has him now battling 3 other young Centers for one job on 3rd line which has seen him stuck in the AHL 3 years now.
After a few years top 6 center with mostly Byfield or Kupari depending on which of the 3 were called up that ended recently.
LAK this year removed Turcotte from Center pushing him to wing

Maccelli is a good player dont get me wrong
He just doesnt fit our needs today

Next year maybe but without Monahan and likely Dvorak by then Centers has to be the focus
Especially after a year where we had 15 wingers all year with atleast 1-2 on IR all year.
Its like building a car from scratch and buying the tires first instead of the frame.
Forum: Armchair-GM25 déc. 2022 à 10 h 26
Sujet: Price of WIFI
<div class="quote"><div class="quote_t">Quoting: <b>TheeDjeeEem</b></div><div>Maccelli is the player you hope Farrel becomes... remember Jimmy Vesey?

Where exactly is Maccelli at vs where you're at?

He's not ARB eligible and 22 and can feed the puck to Slav/Anderson on your 2nd line for like 8 x 5ish which will age beautifully</div></div>

The argument lazy people use when they got nothing to offer in context.
Hayes DECLARED himself a UFA before he was one saying he wouldnt sign

Farrel on the otherhand has taken advantage of every option to work with MTL despite all the NCAA restrictions.
He cant come to camp so he shows up to Draft Camp to play with the rookies the last 2 years as that's allowed.
Working with Coach Nicholas this year in particular saw him get help after jumping to Center fulltime as a NCAA rookie(where he has hit a new level since)
MSL and Coach Nicholas are our NCAA insiders who unlike MB wont be hands off with NCAA talent.
He has the chance to come up and Center or play beside Caufield who's probably one of the best US born Goal Scorer's of his generation.
What more could a proven Playmaker want ?

Anyways MTL doesnt lose NCAA talent
Same argument was made about Harris and he remained that he always intended to sign with MTL like most all NCAA prospects do with their drafted teams
Forum: Armchair-GM25 déc. 2022 à 10 h 14
Sujet: Some Habs - Kings trade ideas
<div class="quote"><div class="quote_t">Quoting: <b>Black61</b></div><div>You are so far off base.

Enforcers who actually can play hockey are literally some of the most highly sought after players in the nhl.

He isnt some fringe goon he is in the top echelon of his age group (literally the 6th youngest nhl dman this year)

He is easily worth more than turcotte at this point</div></div>

In Free Agency , you're 100% correct they are.
Via Trade you're 100% wrong , they arent in terms of Value.
I mean sure every GM wants one for sure
But they rarely pay 1st round picks unless they're best in the league multiple years and a good player like Reaves.
A Ryan Reaves is a once every 5-10 years type player though and the majority of tough guys you see traded arent for much.

Why? because during Free Agency's they can pick their number and get paid for it no issues.
But then their Contract becomes what often lowers or completely negates their Value.
My favorite example is Milan Lucic who is a player a lot of teams wanted the past few years but his contract kept them all away.
Next year as a UFA he'll be smart and sign to a contender for a pittance of a deal with 1 year term to try to make up for all the years he's wasted going from top contenders to pretenders.

My point is Value from a Business POV is what i explained to you.
Interms of Value in the Depth Chart in the short term yes Xhekaj is better then Turcotte.
But Xhekaj's longterm potential is worth less then Turcotte's at this point.

My point is next year when Tankings no longer the goal its unlikely Xhekaj will fill a role outside the same one Pezetta does.
Pezzetta and Xhekaj will be brought in when needed as they occupy the 7thD/13th Forward roles.
But the chemistry of Beaudin-Barron on PP all but ensure's they'lly get play given our PP issues.
That pushes Xhekaj out of regular status even if we trade Eddy
Forum: Armchair-GM25 déc. 2022 à 9 h 43
Sujet: Price of WIFI
Farrel= no deal
He's a favorite for Hobey Baker Award (sources are NCAA and NHL's official sites)
Leading one of the top NCAA lines Centering Coronato and Laferriere
This after falling 1 point short of Slafkovsky OG scoring title in 3 less games as
He as he became the 1st habs prospect to Lead Team USA since Caufield

Coach Nicholas our skills Coach MSL brought on would riot if we Gave Away Farrel like he was nothing.
Its like Giving away Roy who's done less in the same timeframe
Especially when the player we're getting isnt as good as Farrell is projected to be .
His NHL Certainty is higher now only because he's in the NHL but before that Dobber had his upside odds as 7/10 just like most players Maccelli/Farrel's size/draft positions.

Given Farrel and both his linemates are in their Sophmore NCAA year where they've been a dominate force
I just dont see an upside in giving him away for Macceli who i actually like but wouldnt trade for given where he's at versus where we're at.
With so many junior players being forced to turn Pro next year you're just putting more pieces in the way.
Roy in particular has formed into an all around player after back to back scoring titles in junior he's become a complete 2 way threat.
Team Canada use's him to shut down the top offensive peers in his age group.
Forum: Armchair-GM22 déc. 2022 à 17 h 51
Sujet: Some Habs - Kings trade ideas
<div class="quote"><div class="quote_t">Quoting: <b>Black61</b></div><div>How is it poking holes when you make a false claim?

Value wise today Arber is worth significantly more than turcotte that is very obvious</div></div>

Not really
I mean i'm a Xhekaj guy, hope he retires here.
But Enforcers even the really good one's rarely get 1st and 2nd round picks.
When they do its after they're established 4-5 years in the NHL showing consistency.
I mean he's a good player but he's a Dmitri Orlov style 4th/5th defensman when it comes to 5v5.

Xhekaj's current value i'd figure is a 3rd round pick and a decent prospect.
Harris's value is a 3rd or 4th round pick as it stands today.

Turcotte's value's taken a hit but his AHL team plays him Wing , kinda hard to expect much from him as a Center.
I think in MTL he'd play well and could join Dach in the 2019 draft draft player who was struggling before coming to MTL.
Plus a move like that opens up Slafkovsky to play with Suzuki while Caufield plays with Turcotte who was always at his best beside Caufield