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Billy739

Billy739
Membre depuis
18 déc. 2017
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Canadiens de Montréal
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Red Wings de Detroit
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Forum: Armchair-GMmer. à 10 h 44
<div class="quote"><div class="quote_t">Quoting: <b>JSEB93</b></div><div>If Domi and Accari get firsts and prospects, or Bonino gets a first, we are living in a simulation haha</div></div>

Its just good luck for teams selling that so many teams arent .
On top of that Ryan Oreilly going down hurt the Market
As has Toews reluctance to waive his NMC for anyone so most team accept it'll likely be his choice not bidding war.
Even Derek Grant going down helped drive up the value as less quality piece's that would usually get a 2nd and a prospect arent there.

The less Centers you have the more value those remaining have in a buyers market.
Even if 15/20 contenders choose to let 5 teams get an advantage on them uncontested
There's still a shortage of quality past the top 5 options listed.

If another player goes down like a Horvat god forbid then all the remaining 4 has their value increase.
As would the Lesser Center's value's by proxy

In Today's NHL COL , TBL and STL all made moves including O'reilly , Lehkonen and Miller to highlight just one of the many moves each made to stay ontop.
Sitting on your hands wont get you there, neither will a complete Rebuild as you have a dominant looking core with some good depth pieces and a few holes.
What holes Roy and Cormier dont fill the draft pick cant fix i'm sure you can find by moving Karlsson to a 3rd team.

While its true VGK gets better you just helped feed the beast the devour's itself due to lack of longterm vision.
Sure they're better this year and maybe even next but after that they have to coninuously sacrifice depth to moved out deals to stay compliant.
The rate they're going when the Stars stop signing in VGK without full NMC , it will leave basically them basically like ARZ , just with nicer Casino's.

Best thing that could happen for you is he overachieve there so much this year they re-sign him next year with term and a NMC.
You'll have Roy who's a Powerfoward with speed and size who's got a great shot and even more untapped potential signed to a sweetheart deal with term.
Cormier is the guy you want behind EK65 soaking in all he has to offer as Cormier is a slick playmaker with a high hockey IQ and smooth quick strides.
Even as soon as 1 more season after this one it could be viewed clearly as SJS winning the trade even before we know who they used their 1st round pick to snatch up.

This is real talent and a pick in an overpay because VGK is desperate they need to win now as whether they like it or not their window is closing on a lot of their guys atleast in VGK. They traded away many of their asset's so like FLA i think they'll be forced into a year where retooling is a clear necessity now if you plan on winning .All because they moves away all their picks and prospects to land a lot of established players. That's the Path VGK have been going down for some time

But like i said i like your NJD trade it makes sense.
For Some reason i just see Grier taking Mccrimmon to the cleaners and convincing him it was all his idea lol
Forum: Armchair-GMmer. à 9 h 28
Forum: Armchair-GMmer. à 9 h 5
Horvat, Monahan , Domi , Accari and Bonino are the top 5 Centers available who arent injured past the TDL.
50% faceoff win rate always gets even the poorest players paid at the Trade Deadline.
Plekanec had a career worst before playing for TML in the playoffs , got 2nd round pick and 2 prospects we flipped for Kulak.
Staal was playing so bad they talked about sending him to the AHL because he was so slow he was dragging BUF team down.
MTL paid a 2nd and a 4th round pick i believe it was for him
Hanzal was only off LTIR long enough to be acquired play a few games then return to it . He got a 1st , 2nd and 4th round picks

Plenty of lesser Centers like Barbashev will go for less
But True Centers wont be given away as 20 NHL teams are buying looking for Depth for a playoff run.
Its so scarce out there teams are looking at Faksa , Dvorak and even Duchene are drawing a lot of interest despite their attached term
Teams know that no matter who they face in the playoffs if they're not built to take out TBL or COL they'll fail leaving many teams willing to pay high price's to compete.(including TBL and COL who help drive up the prices by overpaying for players)


After Horvat sets the market high Monahan will by proxy land a 1st round pick and a prospect atleast
Even Domi and Accari are likely to land a 1st round pick and a Prospect based on their ability as role players
Bonino has an outside shot of a 1st round pick or a couple 2nd round picks


Plus we got to Factor in Hughes was overpaid for ever single trade he made last TDL.
He had Conditions attached out the wazoo sure but it was all part of his strategy.
Gotta figure he'll have the same thing happen here too
Mesar, Hutson, Guindon, Barron ,Top 10 FLA pick this year , 5th round pick in 2023 ,2nd round pick in 2024 , 7th round pick in 2024 and the 2 older prospects Heineman/Smilinac.
All that for Toffoli , Chiarot, Kulak, and Lehkonen. No one thought a 1st was possible for any of them alone nor did they see the yield they got as possible.
But Hughes understands the Market is Supply vs demand and while more Aggressive with the pure UFA's if he doesnt have to be rushed he'll hold out for more like with Lehkonen demanding an asset no one else was offering and getting it in exchange for leaving more lucritive offers on the table.
Forum: Armchair-GMmer. à 8 h 16
Forum: Armchair-GMmer. à 7 h 46
Sujet: just do it
<div class="quote"><div class="quote_t">Quoting: <b>Campabee</b></div><div>Dach has more value than Laf same with the Cats pick it has more value than the Rags pick. Montreal obviously very easily passes.</div></div>

You Beat me to it.
That top 10 FLA pick In My Eyes has more value alone then LAF given how stacked this draft is and the fact Michkov is likely to fall into the 7th-10th position due to his 2026 contract in KHL.
That's still a projected top 3 pick even if you have to wait an extra 3 years before you have the option to play him is well worth it.
MTL isnt afraid to Draft Russians in that Position as we took Romanov in the same position and it ultimately lead to Kirby Dach a 3rd OA pick , a win no matter which way you slice it.

If i was giving up that top 10 pick it would likely be for Pierre Luc Dubois's final year of his RFA's rights putting us in the same Position as COL was with Lehkonen help keeping his new contract to a reasonable one with Lehkonen leaving money on the table to stay in COL. MTL could use that pick in hopes PLD would do the same but ultimately as long as he re-signs would be a clear win worthy of trading that pick unlike any deal for LAF

LAF i'd trade for but it would be conditioned to the extreme like FLA's pick was with Chiarot and Tkachuk .
I'd give up 2024's 1st round pick , even Give up Josh Roy who i know will be a better player then LAF but not a better Goal Scorer.
But a mid-late 1st rounder and a top prospect is the best i'd do on LAF as he like Armia just shows no improvement after going in the Top half of the 1st round as Power Forward Goal Scorers.
LAF doesnt have the vision to balance playmaking and shooting . He's a very 1 directional person who can thrive as a top Goal Scorer in the right situations but can never be relied upon to Lead his Line.

I think of him like 6 time Stanley Cup Winner and member of NYR 1994 roster Glenn Anderson was to Messier ,Gretzky even Kurri.
No Shame in it, The NHL needs all type of Role Players even Elite One's and it works as long as they put the team/teammates first as he did (and LAF does )
LAF could be a future HOF'er too but like Anderson he has to do so being a Beta not an Alpha
Forum: Armchair-GMmer. à 7 h 26
Sujet: No trades
Forum: Armchair-GMmer. à 7 h 10
I'm a Barbashev guy since like his Brother does now he lead our Junior team.
That said he's not the right fit for Toronto anymore then Nick Foligno was

You can go out and pay a 2nd round plus a prospect in the open market landing him pretty easy.
But he's better off on a team like VGK,CGY or DET where his role as a secondary faceoff guy and shutdown checker would have the most impact.

For TML from my POV i think Noel Accari Or Radek Faksa makes more sense.
Faksa's a big heavy hitting shut down Power Center whose consistently top 5 in Faceoffs taken by 4th liners while being a consistent team leader in blocked shots.
DAL doesnt need him they got Quality Centers pushed to wing because Faksa isnt the same player when you move him out of a Center Role.

DAL moving his contract now can be active at the Trade Deadline acquiring the Middle 6 RW they'll need for a Playoff Run since Gurianov is on year 3 of his goal scoring decline they'll need to. Faksa gives TML the depth needed at Center for a real run forcing teams to respect all 4 Centers ability's and their size with JT 6'1, DK 6'2 , Faksa 6'3 , &amp; AM 6'3 with 3/4 weight 215-220lbs they cant be pushed around.

DAL might even pay you to take Faksa in the summer.
This TDL though Top Centers available with 50% or around win rate are Horvat, Monahan, Domi , Accuri, and Bonino.
The rest are injured past TDL or their teams suddenly are in Wildcard position after seeded teams took a pounding .
So this TDL someone might actually pay a 2nd and a prospect for Faksa despite his contract, more if they can get a 3rd team to RS.
Outside being about 750k-1m over paid he's an ideal player especially given he's far more likely to steal a puck then turn it over as he's far too territorial in Nuetral Ice for those types of mistakes.

IMO if he was 1m cheaper with the same term i think TML would have already acquired him.
Same issue MTL has had with trying to move David Savard despite him being a good player he's overpaid in a time where only 2 teams are in a position RS during a rebuild.
Because i want any Canadian Team to Win a cup i'll say if you plugged this hole with Faksa it would help fortify your Defense and Transitional game which is where MTL despite being worse outplays you.
I gotta say its a trend i see when i see Toronto games and Highlights but to be fair its a hard role to fill without overpaying a guy to play at that level.
While Faksa's a Gamble more then the rest he's also easier to move as his 2 remaining years after this are shed.

Accari to a lesser degree checks a lot of the same boxes with far better production accross the boards.
That said Head to Head in the Playoffs Faksa has better Quality in his runs and production plus he's a better shot blocker.
But both would fix what i percieve as TML's single biggest issue in their control of the Neutral Zone
Forum: Armchair-GMlun. à 23 h 36
Forum: Armchair-GMlun. à 23 h 23
Forum: Armchair-GMlun. à 23 h 18
<div class="quote"><div class="quote_t">Quoting: <b>HockeyIsMyPassion61</b></div><div>:laugh :laugh Nice Troll jobs, Too bad Pavelski just re-signed back with Dallas. So he sure as hell isn't waiving for Vegas.

Mark Stone doesn't waive for dumpster fire Chicago.

Pavelski sure as hell isn't waiving for cellar dweller Montreal either.</div></div>

Depends on who we'd be Retaining Salary on his Current deal for at the Trade Deadline.
Monahan came here and has suitors lined up and suddenly the idea of him as a UFA went from 1-2 million no term to 4m plus with term according to experts like Friedman, Lerbun and Oneill.

IF Pavelski thought DAL was building around the youth and passing on him i think he'd be fine as long as he's given the maximum amount of options.
Going to MTL playing with Slafkovsky , Caufield , Dach or Anderson gives him good odds of showcasing his talents as well as he did in DAL as a Mentor on a Youth line.
(Anderson thrown in cause i didnt have a 4th young winger worthy of top 6 )

MTL RS 50% and moves Pavelski a month from now after he's played some more games showing a change in scenary wont stop his production.
Then i'd be thinking a Pavelski (@2.75m cap) and 3.5m on next years deal to EDM for Puljujarvi , Lavoie and a conditional 2nd round pick in 2024 becomes a 1st in 2023 if EDM makes SCF

EDM replaces Puljujarvi x3 for less cap this year and almost exactly the minimum JP is due next year for the cost of Lavoie who's struggling to find his place since Turning Pro where he's on the small side for a big guy and unable to take advantage of players physically in the same way as junior where he dominated. Still have potential and shows consistency but at this point he's more likely a AHL All Star Regular and occasional call up the way things are going . I do believe Developing in Montreal 30km and 25 minutes from his Hometown will make a huge difference like we seen in Anthony "Laval Rocket" Richard who's become Laval's top Scorer almost Effortlessly earning his 3rd call up at age 26 after NSH cut ties with him. He didnt stay up more then 7 games but he got his first NHL goal and an assist with some pretty creative offensive chances and thats on someone who is no where near the talent with potential like Lavoie .

After this year we'll be able to get Lavoie on Waivers anyways so its a Puljujarvi like loss where poor development has diminished their value in most of the 31 teams eyes. For MTL they're rebuild and always injured in desperate need of bodies so gambling on Puljujarvi and Lavoie would be worth it. As for why DAL wouldnt target these guys is because they cant RS but most important they got these type players in Tufte and Back who are actually better developed and closer to the NHL then what EDM offers.

I just wanted to point out Rebuilding or not people want to come here for a reason.
Klingberg while facing off against MTL said he'd be excited if things work out this summer and he gets to play a home game for the CH.
To play a home game even if its just 1 game in a CH jersey will always being appealing to players
Forum: Armchair-GM25 déc. 2022 à 13 h 30
Sujet: never
Forum: Armchair-GM25 déc. 2022 à 13 h 12
Sujet: never
Forum: Armchair-GM25 déc. 2022 à 12 h 37
<div class="quote"><div class="quote_t">Quoting: <b>Db1899</b></div><div>if you're going just by points for rookie defenseman in projecting them, then your argument holds no weight. They are two completely different defenseman. Xhekaj does not have the skillset to drive his D pair.

you sound like someone who can't afford to go on vacation lol

<img class="for_img" src="" alt=""><img src="https://i.ibb.co/TktJ271/Screen-Shot-2022-12-25-at-12-23-54-PM.png" alt="Screen-Shot-2022-12-25-at-12-23-54-PM">"&gt;</div></div>

Every Defensman and person for that matter is "different "
I'm arguing Role and Projection and at not time did i say their style's were the same.

Its like the English Language doesnt matter anymore.
I say in plain English what i mean and you come back with what you think i actually meant.
Its like dealing with my mother-in-law and yes sadly vacations are mandatory , if they werent i'd have less time dealing with the inlaws.

People who have success in life tend to care about the details.
People who cant do that unsurprisingly become resentful of those around them .
Lashing out becomes unavoidable to the point recalling why they're angry leaves them lost in thought.

You keep trying to explain why Gretzky isnt Gordie Howe
While i can look at the Context as see Gretzky grew up to be Gordie Howe (and more)
For me Newtons laws of Motion define life as "every action has an equal and opposite re-action"
That's just part of the foundation of the evolution of Modern society the helped birth the world of Science into a Mainstream accepted practice.
Most things in life can be boiled down by this theory , all except your views on hockey which absolutely make no sense at all.

All i keep hearing in my head is "No one can be this willfully obvlivious , but someone can be this bored a troll "
Forum: Armchair-GM25 déc. 2022 à 12 h 16
Forum: Armchair-GM25 déc. 2022 à 12 h 7
<div class="quote"><div class="quote_t">Quoting: <b>Db1899</b></div><div>:tearsofjoy :tearsofjoy :tearsofjoy - thanks for proving my point. Orlov anchors the 2nd pair , but is top pair quality . Xhekaj has depth defenseman upside while being a top 5 fighter in the league. They aren’t comparable.

I’m going to assume you celebrate Christmas by your comment (you clearly have a lot of time on your hands with these essays you’re writing). I’m Jewish and just got back from vacation! Appreciate you looking out though!</div></div>PROJECTED MEANS THE SAME PATH ORLOV TOOK
DO I NEED ALL CAPS FOR YOU TO ABSORB 1+1=2?

Orlov's rookie year vs Xhekaj
Put all your free time to use and compare them
Then eat your words and savor them so next time you remember.

Its sad "Projected" is a term thats to complex for this forum.
You've repeatedly compared old man Orlov to Xhekaj despite the comparison being how they started and where they'll end up being similar.


I mean this isnt rocket science and most sources support my logic .
What exactly have you contributed to this conversation again ?


Anyways enjoy your single longely vacation.
Pond hockey is starting and my phone is staying off.
I cant be on call all day to explain and digest common knowledge so its more palitable for you.
Its clear you're incapable of big picture thinking which ive tried to engage in with you multiple times.
You're the type of person to see a pile a lumber and think "Fire" while im the type to think "build a house"

Cant change that reality
So why bother humoring it
Forum: Armchair-GM25 déc. 2022 à 11 h 51
<div class="quote"><div class="quote_t">Quoting: <b>TheeDjeeEem</b></div><div>Dobber also has Valimaki listed as a top prospect winger for AZU instead of the depth Dman that he is...

Maybe admit you could be wrong in your evaluation and do a DEEP dive into both players instead of ranting about coaching potential into prospects who haven't played in the AHL even

The Vesey comparison wasnt about not signing with his draft team... it was about him not being anywhere near as talented in the NHL as he was in NCAA vs grown men, not boys. Many teams were very wrong about him.</div></div>

He's like Beaudin in CHI but before being put on the market last year was a 7.5 nhl likelyhood.
His progress stalled in his drafted system making him look like a 1st round bust dropping him to 6.5 depite being younger at 23 then Valamki.

But at 24 Valamaki isnt considered a bust yet its important to note he was claimed on Waives with many many people wanting him
Because ARZ sucks so bad they got priority and TBH since going to ARZ he's actually showed improvement like Beaudin has in MTL's AHL system at almost a point per game.
Valamaki made the NHL so he got to keep his projected upside at a high percentage but his fall was coming just like Beaduin's did .

You're comparing Defensman to Wingers and claiming you dont get why Dobber projects them differently. . . .
They do this with all wingers who by 23 often have their NHL upside ranked 5 or lower .
Defensman dont face these same issues

The fact you're still on about Vesey says it all , now trying a different angle as if it changes anything.
NCAA has gotten stronger every year as shown by the amount of talent taken in the draft every year from the NCAA growing.
While Vesey was a big fish in a small pond that pond is no overcrowded with talent many of which have quickly climbed the NHL rankings. . . .

This feels like when i take my nieces to hockey games and try to explain how the Junior games we watch are different then the NHL.
In the end you either get development or you dont . But claiming Dobber and its many Professional Scouts are wrong but you're right says a lot.



The fact you're arguing against established site's then saying "maybe admit you could be wrong " is the biggest issue here.
You're smart enough to carry yourself better and you know what admitting when your wrong is but make no room for it as it applies to yourself.
People who dont take their own advise are often ignored based on their own actions, this is such a case.

I'll keep listing sources and context.
You keep ignoring it arguing its the world that's wrong and you know more then a longtime established business based on specifically knowing this subject .
Forum: Armchair-GM25 déc. 2022 à 11 h 40
<div class="quote"><div class="quote_t">Quoting: <b>Db1899</b></div><div>Orlov is a top pair D and his game is nothing like Xhekaj. Orlov is a puck moving high end two way D with elite 4 way mobility. Xkekaj is more like a Luke Schenn.

Macelli is on pace for 60 points this season as a 22 YO. In his prime he’ll be a 70-75 pt two way winger</div></div>

Not since 2017-18 the only year he was .
Feel free to check but that's the last time he was top pair
Does he play 3rd most minutes on the team most years ,sure
But watch a game and you'll know Orlov's been their Jeff Petry holding down 2nd pair for a decade more often then not.
While i use the Petry example the only context of the comparison i seek to drive home is the logic behind why he's there.

Carlsson like Weber has 1st on lock while making everyone aroung them better.
Orlov on the other hand is a more reserved 2nd pair leader who elevates the play of whomever he's beside.
They play toghether as often as Weber -Petry did and while it did happen for atleast 20-25 games Weber-Petry was never our top pair.
Orlov's Value comes from his Penalty kill ability when he averages 4-6 extra minutes a night as Washington loves getting themselves in trouble.
Without Orlov doing that having a fighter like Tom Wilson just couldnt remain an option while building a contender.


Xhekaj's minutes and production versus Orlov's first 2 NHL seasons is on point
You're trying to ignore the context of the Comparison hearing "lets compare a rookie to one of the older Veterns"
When the statement was they Projected the same and to miss something so profoundly simply just isnt likely.
Its more likely you're just lonely on christmas trying to keep someone chatting with you so you're pushing buttons for attention.
Forum: Armchair-GM25 déc. 2022 à 11 h 13
<div class="quote"><div class="quote_t">Quoting: <b>Black61</b></div><div>They do all the time.

Lucic got multiple 1st round picks in value from

Nick foligno as a broken power forward got a 1st as a rental.

We had to add to the josh anderson trade coming off surgery to get him for domi.

And reaves of cpurse.

And i am saying you are OBLIVIOUS to where Arber is at. He has played 32 games. Other dman from the 2019 draft that have played even 20 games this year.....moritz seider.

He has turned the corner into a regular nhler at an age where the vast majority of players (nevermind dmen) havent yet. That alone add insane value.

As far as business goes given the choice tpday between xhekaj and turcotte today the vast majority would say arber is the more valiable asset. Its not close</div></div>

In the context of him signing as a top UFA getting whatever contract he wanted like i stated?
Or are you just one of those people who reads but doesnt absorb topics of conversation?

Foligno was one of 3 centers available at the TDL and having a good year in the faceoff circle and got paid for it.
He's a player , a Captain and a occasionally fights but isnt defined by it like his brother is for example.
But accordingly Markus gets squat despite being the only man in the NHL Tom Wilson loses to regularly , his value is too low to entertain trading.

Anderson isnt a fighter he just gets in fights , about as many as Gallagher does actually , is Gallagher now a considered a Fighter?

Reaves i used to establish the top price someones willing to pay


"Oblivious" being used ironically is hilarious.
"other dman from 2019 draft " Arber isnt drafted SMH , but i dont know him right?
Undrafted at both OHL and NHL levels but lets compare him to one of the top rated NHL drafted defense and claim sanity hahahahahahaha . . .

So to be clear , you're not a business owner ?
Forum: Armchair-GM25 déc. 2022 à 11 h 6
Forum: Armchair-GM25 déc. 2022 à 10 h 37
<div class="quote"><div class="quote_t">Quoting: <b>TheeDjeeEem</b></div><div>Maccelli is the player you hope Farrel becomes... remember Jimmy Vesey?

Where exactly is Maccelli at vs where you're at?

He's not ARB eligible and 22 and can feed the puck to Slav/Anderson on your 2nd line for like 8 x 5ish which will age beautifully</div></div>

"Slav/Anderson" has been a line all of what 5 games?
Slaf/Mesar are the future and they need a Center or a Winger capable Center who like Andrew Shaw can help Mesar make that jump the same way Danault did.

If it was me personally Dvorsky in this years draft is how i fill that hole long term.
Slovak line featuring their 3 best forward prospects could be legit as the Russian like was for DET success under Scotty Bowman.
We have not 1 but 2 picks falling where Dvorsky is projected to fall in the draft so odds are he's ours.

If it was me personally i'd trade for Turcotte who was Caufields long time Center.
Turcotte without Caufield has struggled to live up to his projections as a top 6 Center prospect.
LAK has him now battling 3 other young Centers for one job on 3rd line which has seen him stuck in the AHL 3 years now.
After a few years top 6 center with mostly Byfield or Kupari depending on which of the 3 were called up that ended recently.
LAK this year removed Turcotte from Center pushing him to wing

Maccelli is a good player dont get me wrong
He just doesnt fit our needs today

Next year maybe but without Monahan and likely Dvorak by then Centers has to be the focus
Especially after a year where we had 15 wingers all year with atleast 1-2 on IR all year.
Its like building a car from scratch and buying the tires first instead of the frame.
Forum: Armchair-GM25 déc. 2022 à 10 h 26
Forum: Armchair-GM25 déc. 2022 à 10 h 14
<div class="quote"><div class="quote_t">Quoting: <b>Black61</b></div><div>You are so far off base.

Enforcers who actually can play hockey are literally some of the most highly sought after players in the nhl.

He isnt some fringe goon he is in the top echelon of his age group (literally the 6th youngest nhl dman this year)

He is easily worth more than turcotte at this point</div></div>

In Free Agency , you're 100% correct they are.
Via Trade you're 100% wrong , they arent in terms of Value.
I mean sure every GM wants one for sure
But they rarely pay 1st round picks unless they're best in the league multiple years and a good player like Reaves.
A Ryan Reaves is a once every 5-10 years type player though and the majority of tough guys you see traded arent for much.

Why? because during Free Agency's they can pick their number and get paid for it no issues.
But then their Contract becomes what often lowers or completely negates their Value.
My favorite example is Milan Lucic who is a player a lot of teams wanted the past few years but his contract kept them all away.
Next year as a UFA he'll be smart and sign to a contender for a pittance of a deal with 1 year term to try to make up for all the years he's wasted going from top contenders to pretenders.

My point is Value from a Business POV is what i explained to you.
Interms of Value in the Depth Chart in the short term yes Xhekaj is better then Turcotte.
But Xhekaj's longterm potential is worth less then Turcotte's at this point.

My point is next year when Tankings no longer the goal its unlikely Xhekaj will fill a role outside the same one Pezetta does.
Pezzetta and Xhekaj will be brought in when needed as they occupy the 7thD/13th Forward roles.
But the chemistry of Beaudin-Barron on PP all but ensure's they'lly get play given our PP issues.
That pushes Xhekaj out of regular status even if we trade Eddy
Forum: Armchair-GM25 déc. 2022 à 9 h 43
Forum: Armchair-GM22 déc. 2022 à 17 h 51