The contracts I think are close but:

You overpaid Matthews with that term. That is likely what he gets (maximum) with 8 years. If you go to 6, it drastically kills the aav due to how RFA works, so Matthews for 5 or 6 would be closer to 9.34aav. It will be less than Eichel for sure (with 6 years)
I think you nailed the Marner contract.
You overpaid Kappy and Mango by about 500k each, and went a touch too long on the term. think:
Mango: 3@2.5
Kappy: 2@2.75
Sparks will make backup money, which is like the Mac Contract (2@0.850)
Doubt Lindholm comes back. There is a lack of good depth centres league wide and someone will offer him 1.5aav on 3 years to play for them.

Yeah this actually looks pretty good. Matthews may get a little bit more, but honestly the negotiations are so up in the air, it's hard to pin down a dollar amount or term. Nice job

I'll disagree. To expect all three of Rosen, Liljegren and Folin in the starting six.....that's bad.

I dont think you have to give up the 3rd in the zaitsev trade. There are already GM's who want zaitsev and we wouldn't have to give up a pick unless we were getting a pick higher then we were giving up

You're wrong on the Matthews' number.

No way gets 9.34 unless he takes a pretty heavy cut, especially at 6 years.

Kane and Toews got 11.09% @ 5 years or $9,204,700 on a 83 million dollar cap.

Stamkos got 11.66% @ 5 years or $9,677,800 on a 83 million dollar cap.

The following is the points per game at signing for each player:

Toews - 0.87
Kane - 0.92
Stamkos - 0.95
Matthews - 0.98

Matthews' production is significantly higher than both Toews and Kane. He will get much more.

The greatest comparable is Stamkos. Matthews has better production than Stamkos had, so it's likely he'll get more.

I'm guessing 10 million @ 5 years or 10.5 million @ 6 years.

Yup. I wouldn't be surprised if it goes as high as $11m for 5 years. $10m would be a big win by my estimation

Okay, so he gets 11.whatever for 8 right? (that is Eichel + inflation + however much better you think Matthews is).
RFA's take off huge parts of their salary due to CBA **** to go shorter.
Take off a year take off a million or so.
Therefore,
I figure he wont go much below 9 so no use going to 5.
6@9.34
7@10.34
8@11.34
Also, the kane and towes argument only factors in points, and not other major factors. Everything included that number is very close, so Kane/Toews is 5@9.2, then Matthews (with some of his issues) would come to 5-6@9.34.
That is a fairly easy comparable.

Now tell me, when you could get Matthews at 8 years for just a touch over your prediction, why go to 6?

I cannot for the life of me understand why people on her think the Leafs will have to so badly overpay for their players. Yeah they are very good. They are even elite.
That doesn't mean you have to overpay for no discernible reason.

Your numbers are stupidly high for no real reason. Eichel got 10 for 8 years. Matthews and Eichel are EXTREMELY COMPARABLE (see https://www.capfriendly.com/armchair-gm/team/884206) < go to 3rd section

So why would Matthews get that much for way less term. UFA years are expensive, taking them off takes off a huge amount

You aren't using comparable contracts to backup your estimations. You are pulling these numbers from thin air. That's not how negotiations work.

Why are you comparing Matthews to Eichel?

Eichel signed his 8 year deal when his PPG was at 0.79. Matthews PPG is currently at 0.98. That's a very significant difference.

Eichel also signed when the cap was much lower. The cap is going up to 83m. Eichel signed for 13.33% of the cap. That's 11,063,900 on an 83m cap. You're pretty much saying Eichel and Matthews are equivalent at the time of each signing if you want to give Matthews around 11 @ 8. As you see above (0.79PPG for Eichel, 0.98PPG for Matthews), this is clearly untrue.

I really don't understand your argument against the Kane and Toews comparable. Agents use points per game to drive a negotiation when singing an RFA. And anyways, what have Toews and Kane done better than Matthews?

I just explained why 10 million @ 5 years or 10.5 million @ 6 years is fair with numbers to back up my reasoning, yet you still say it's an overpayment.

I just checked out the link you sent me to your post.

I'm sorry, but that thing is a bit of a disaster. There's so much outdated information, and it's formatted terribly.

You got Nylander wrong, by a million dollars.

You keep comparing the last season, or the last two seasons when comparing players. This is wrong. You compare the entire ELC PPG. This is why you got Nylander so wrong.

That acgm was built in the off season, and is incomplete as I was waiting for this season to finish before I finished it. The reason it's formatted terribly is because it's literally not done.

The Nylander number was without cap inflation or any other factors included only using the Ehlers comparison. As I said, it is not done.
Nice to know you did not actually read it. Seems like everyone who doesn't thinks the way you do. Funny that...
The part I was referring to was the stats for Matthews, which are. Funny how you don't acknowledge that ...


You argue about me getting the Nylander thing wrong here, yet it was not done and did not factor in 2/3rd of the stuff.

If you are going to critique something, actually give it a ****ing read first...

You also don't talk about any of what I said at all in the post...

I'm saying there is more involved, and that all together, his ppg are cancelled out by Eichel all around game. Basically, they are similar players, and should be paid similarly.

I'm not going to bother reading your 25 paragraphs of misinformation and outdated numbers. What a waste of time that would be.

I'll end it with this. Your projections for Marner and Matthews are both wrong. I'd bet money on it.

Go back to the drawing board with how you calculate your projected AAV. You're about to get Marner, Nylander and Matthews all wrong.

Agreed.

They aren't the same players. Look at the PPG. You are turning a blind eye because you're so stuck on the AAV that you made up in your head.

Refuses to read contradicting evidence and wont get the point...

I'll be sure to @ you when Matthews' deal is announced for 11 million @ 6 years.