This is based on latest number being floated by Marc Savard ($6.9 AAV) and my guess at term.
Don't let Nylander's cap hit in 2018-19 confuse you. It's due to NHL CBA rules. The actual cap hit in year 1 is $9.461M but years 2-6 would actually be $6.546M.
Horton LTIR relief is not used, to allow paydown of 2018-19 perf. bonuses as much as possible. (Estimated at ~$4M, max $5.4M)

Thanks Billius on your usual fine detail about the cap rules. And welcome back, your insight is always appreciated.

The cap hit remains the same during the contract, regardless when you pay the player, term divided by sum$$. Sign Nylander for whatever term and cash that would permeate a trade in the summer when they will require cap to sign Marner and Matthews. By doing so, Toronto would assure themselves the best scenario to try to win the cup this year.

great job breaking this down and explaining it to us!

I saw Marc's tweet as well. I wonder who's his anonymous source. Seems so mysterious. Savard only mentioned money though, term of course still being the issue. Since when has Marc Savard become an "insider"? :P

The point the author of this post made has been well documented and is correct, as long as the first year is all salary and not bonus money. If its bonus money then then it won't affect the cap hit in years 2-6. Also don't trade Nylander, you won't get fair value and trading him for less than fair value is just poor asset management. There are other trades that can be made to improve the line up. Losing a Nylander trade to upgrade 1 defenceman isn't a good idea unless you are getting a guy who could be a legit #1 someday and that just isn't going to happen.

Thanks but the real expert here is Earl Schwartz. He has built a spreadsheet tool to let you calculate the cap hit formula. I figured you guys would find it useful for your work: Nylander Cap Hit Calculator

I look forward to your scenarios over coming days and hope we find the actual term closer to 8 years and not 5 as the Nylander camp probably wants so he can have a chance at a big pay day as a UFA after turning 27.

Fake News!!!!!!!!

I had guessed 7 million. It just seems like the right number. But only term till he can be a UFA.

The idea was discussed here already month ago, i found this one for playing with numbers : https://jsfiddle.net/amos47/b5wkhLge/embedded/result

Marc (or anyone) becomes an insider when someone wants to information (real or fake) to the public. It's not that it's real digging by Savard, someone from the Leafs or Nylander camp wanted this story out.

That's how I read it. It's part of the agent's bag of tricks. Pretty sure it was from the agent.

Agree with you that it was the agent. Now that it's "out", are there any teams to put in an offer sheet topping that dollar figure. Would only cost # 1, 2, 3 rounders for five year contract. Not saying that Nylander is worth much more than the 6.9m. AAV, but some team might.