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Leafs Cheap RHD Trade (PHI)

Créé par: Matthews34
Équipe: 2018-19 Maple Leafs de Toronto
Date de création initiale: 8 août 2018
Publié: 8 août 2018
Mode - plafond salarial: Basique
Description
As we progress through the offseason the chances of the Leafs getting that coveted top pairing RHD seem lower. This is a cheaper option that not only gets us a minute munching RHD, but a guy with toughness that so many complain we lack. For Philly they have Myers coming up where if he impresses enough trading Gudas should make a lot of sense. I think this works for everyone.
Signatures de joueurs autonomes
RFAANSCAP HIT
86 500 000 $
Transactions
PHI
  1. Choix de 2e ronde en 2019 (TOR)
Rachats de contrats
Transactions impliquant une retenue de salaire
Repêchage1e ronde2e ronde3e ronde4e ronde5e ronde6e ronde7e ronde
2019
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2020
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2021
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TAILLE DE LA FORMATIONPLAFOND SALARIALCAP HITEXCÉDENTS Info-bulleBONISESPACE SOUS LE PLAFOND SALARIAL
2379 500 000 $74 528 333 $2 550 000 $4 550 000 $4 971 667 $
Ailier gaucheCentreAilier droit
6 250 000 $6 250 000 $
AG, C
NMC
UFA - 2
925 000 $925 000 $ (Bonis de performance2 850 000 $$3M)
C
UFA - 1
6 500 000 $6 500 000 $
AD
UFA - 6
2 250 000 $2 250 000 $
AD, AG
UFA - 3
11 000 000 $11 000 000 $
C, AG
NMC
UFA - 7
894 167 $894 167 $ (Bonis de performance850 000 $$850K)
AD
UFA - 1
787 500 $787 500 $
AG, AD
UFA - 1
4 500 000 $4 500 000 $
C
M-NTC
UFA - 4
863 333 $863 333 $
AD
UFA - 1
650 000 $650 000 $
AG, AD
UFA - 1
925 000 $925 000 $ (Bonis de performance850 000 $$850K)
AG, C
UFA - 1
2 100 000 $2 100 000 $
AD, AG
UFA - 2
925 000 $925 000 $
AD, AG
UFA - 1
5 300 000 $5 300 000 $
AD
M-NTC, NMC
UFA - 2
Défenseur gaucherDéfenseur droitierGardien de but
5 000 000 $5 000 000 $
DG
UFA - 4
863 333 $863 333 $
DG/DD
UFA - 2
5 000 000 $5 000 000 $
G
M-NTC
UFA - 3
4 050 000 $4 050 000 $
DG
UFA - 1
2 345 000 $2 345 000 $
DD
UFA - 2
850 000 $850 000 $
G
UFA - 1
3 000 000 $3 000 000 $
DD
M-NTC
UFA - 1
4 500 000 $4 500 000 $
DD
UFA - 6
1 300 000 $1 300 000 $
DD
UFA - 1

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8 août 2018 à 13 h 52
#1
Once a Kings Fan Too
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Seems good to me. I've been hoping Dubas would obtain a mid-level RD for some time, because I think that Hainsey is retiring, or at least not re-signing. Let's see what the Philly guys think.
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8 août 2018 à 13 h 53
#2
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Do you not think it would be more wise to see how Ozhiganov pans out first before filling that role?
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8 août 2018 à 13 h 56
#3
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Quoting: OldNYIfan
Seems good to me. I've been hoping Dubas would obtain a mid-level RD for some time, because I think that Hainsey is retiring, or at least not re-signing. Let's see what the Philly guys think.


Ill answer for them. They would not want to trade Gudas because they have literally no RHD depth not counting Myers. But I agree that I would like as you do obtain mid level RHD like Bortuzzo, maybe depth guy as Prosser, we dont need big fish high paid defenders, We have stars on D, we need solid guys to fill the spots.
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8 août 2018 à 13 h 59
#4
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Quoting: Jamiepo
Do you not think it would be more wise to see how Ozhiganov pans out first before filling that role?


It's a good point because actually I'm a pretty big Carrick fan too and believe he would succeed in a bottom pairing role. What it comes down to for me is that Gudas brings a whole different element to our blueline that I don't believe Carrick or Oz possess. And while they COULD theoretically fill that role we're a contending team that at some point needs some stability back there and to not rely on an overseas signing or a bottom pairing D to take the next step.

But if we go into the season as we are at this point in time, see what Carrick/Oz have in camp, and a deal like this is still available mid-season? I think that's totally a viable option as well.
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8 août 2018 à 14 h 7
#5
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Quoting: SammyT_51
Ill answer for them. They would not want to trade Gudas because they have literally no RHD depth not counting Myers. But I agree that I would like as you do obtain mid level RHD like Bortuzzo, maybe depth guy as Prosser, we dont need big fish high paid defenders, We have stars on D, we need solid guys to fill the spots.


Amen to both guys. Others who should be on the radar (this year and next) go as high as Stephen Johns and Esa Lindell to Kevin Connauton to Dylan Demelo and the myriad $800k defenders that are LA's back end. Speaking of Philly, by the way, and 800k defenders there's Christian Folin. Don't know why he didn't stay here.
8 août 2018 à 14 h 8
#6
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Quoting: SammyT_51
Ill answer for them. They would not want to trade Gudas because they have literally no RHD depth not counting Myers.


I think the idea for Flyers fans would be to run something like this:

Prov-Ghost
Sanheim-AMac
Hagg-Myers

I know a decent number of them do have interest in moving Gudas. Partly because of a very poor season last year. If a Flyers fan could give us some insight that would be greatly appreciated though.
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8 août 2018 à 14 h 11
#7
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Quoting: Matthews34
It's a good point because actually I'm a pretty big Carrick fan too and believe he would succeed in a bottom pairing role. What it comes down to for me is that Gudas brings a whole different element to our blueline that I don't believe Carrick or Oz possess. And while they COULD theoretically fill that role we're a contending team that at some point needs some stability back there and to not rely on an overseas signing or a bottom pairing D to take the next step.

But if we go into the season as we are at this point in time, see what Carrick/Oz have in camp, and a deal like this is still available mid-season? I think that's totally a viable option as well.


Carrick and Ozhiganov are two comoletely different players.
Ozhiganov comes a red to Gudas:
Oz better skater, bigger body harder hitter, harder shot.
Gudas more experience in nhl

Gudas would be an alright fit for maybe 1 season but as it’s already been pointed out I don’t think they have the depth to let him go.
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8 août 2018 à 14 h 16
#8
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Am I the only person that would never want a player like Gudas on my team? There is difference between a hard player and a dirty player.
8 août 2018 à 14 h 18
#9
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Quoting: Davisoc
Am I the only person that would never want a player like Gudas on my team? There is difference between a hard player and a dirty player.


I was kinda leaning that way too...
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8 août 2018 à 14 h 24
#10
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Philly takes a 2nd rounder for Gudas in a second.

Hes not nearly effective anymore now hes a repeat, repeat offender so hes hesitant to do what made him good: play physical, hit and a nasty streak.

While Philly only has Myers and Folin who are RH (they did just draft 2 good right handed dmen), theres a massive shortage across the league and GUdas at his salaey and current effectiveness int really worth a second. But if thats the offer, Philly has provorov, gostisbehere, hagg, sanheim, andy macdonald, folin, myers and tons of cap space and theyd take that second in a second.
8 août 2018 à 14 h 32
#11
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Quoting: Davisoc
Am I the only person that would never want a player like Gudas on my team? There is difference between a hard player and a dirty player.


I'm sure you're not the only one. For me personally it isn't a deal breaker, but just a negative for the player. I imagine others thimk differently.

Quoting: Hammerwise
Philly takes a 2nd rounder for Gudas in a second.

Hes not nearly effective anymore now hes a repeat, repeat offender so hes hesitant to do what made him good: play physical, hit and a nasty streak.

While Philly only has Myers and Folin who are RH (they did just draft 2 good right handed dmen), theres a massive shortage across the league and GUdas at his salaey and current effectiveness int really worth a second. But if thats the offer, Philly has provorov, gostisbehere, hagg, sanheim, andy macdonald, folin, myers and tons of cap space and theyd take that second in a second.


I was quite aware of the dropoff in play for Gudas over this past year, but the deal would be gambling on him returning to 16/17 form. But if what you stated in the first sentence is true and he may never regain that form due to the numerous suspensions that would likely be a major roadblock.
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8 août 2018 à 14 h 40
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Hes okay, still a solid third pairing guy and some PK time, but IMO not worth a second rounder and Philly has enough depth and prospects and massive cap space to fill that spot.
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8 août 2018 à 15 h 5
#13
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Why would we give up a 2nd for a more expensive Polak?

I dont think we need to give up anyyhing for another dman. If a deal that comes along, sure, but no need to force something. Our forwards are going to have the puck A LOT which will make our D look even better. Lets go into this season with who we have and force a young guy to prove he belongs!
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8 août 2018 à 16 h 9
#14
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Quoting: buds16
Why would we give up a 2nd for a more expensive Polak?

I dont think we need to give up anyyhing for another dman. If a deal that comes along, sure, but no need to force something. Our forwards are going to have the puck A LOT which will make our D look even better. Lets go into this season with who we have and force a young guy to prove he belongs!


I also believe that getting rid of Bozak and now having 3 2way Centres will also help our D this year. I think a lot of people Don’t realize how important a Centres role is in the defensive zone.
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8 août 2018 à 16 h 33
#15
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Quoting: Davisoc
Am I the only person that would never want a player like Gudas on my team? There is difference between a hard player and a dirty player.


Soft, just like the Leafs and that is why they will never win anything!
9 août 2018 à 8 h 28
#16
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Quoting: DirtyDangles
Soft, just like the Leafs and that is why they will never win anything!


That was a really ironic statement coming from a Flyers fan.
9 août 2018 à 8 h 48
#17
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Quoting: Davisoc
That was a really ironic statement coming from a Flyers fan.


Ironic? When was the last time the Leafs even made the finals? Oh right, back when there were only 6 teams!
9 août 2018 à 9 h 20
#18
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Quoting: DirtyDangles
Ironic? When was the last time the Leafs even made the finals? Oh right, back when there were only 6 teams!


Adorable.
9 août 2018 à 12 h 4
#19
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Quoting: Davisoc
Adorable.


Don't like the truth eh?
9 août 2018 à 13 h 20
#20
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Quoting: DirtyDangles
Don't like the truth eh?


Whatever you say, old wise one.
9 août 2018 à 13 h 35
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Not sure I would accept this for Philadelphia. Radko Gudas has pretty solid underlying metrics and had some bad puck luck last season. Don't really have any incentive to move him as he is still a valuable asset to have on this team. I also think that his shot contributions are really underrated league-wide.
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9 août 2018 à 14 h 18
#22
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Quoting: buds16
Why would we give up a 2nd for a more expensive Polak?

I dont think we need to give up anyyhing for another dman. If a deal that comes along, sure, but no need to force something. Our forwards are going to have the puck A LOT which will make our D look even better. Lets go into this season with who we have and force a young guy to prove he belongs!


Roman Polak : -1.49 rel CF% ; -1.49 rel xGF% ; 100.31 PDO
Radko Gudas : 2.71 rel CF% ; 1.7 rel xGF% ; 97.08 PDO

Not sue where there is any objective analysis to justify Radko Gudas being a "more expensive Polak".
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9 août 2018 à 14 h 32
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Quoting: phillyjabroni
Roman Polak : -1.49 rel CF% ; -1.49 rel xGF% ; 100.31 PDO
Radko Gudas : 2.71 rel CF% ; 1.7 rel xGF% ; 97.08 PDO

Not sue where there is any objective analysis to justify Radko Gudas being a "more expensive Polak".


You replied with advanced stats as proof? first pdo is luck, so your reply has no credibility. Real stats make your reply even less relevant.

Polak. 54 GP, 2G, 10A +5 46PIMS 0.22PPG 1 MILLION
Gudas . 70GP, 2G, 14A, 0+/- 83PIMS 0.23PPG 3,350,000 MILLION

WOW.
9 août 2018 à 15 h 7
#24
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Quoting: buds16
You replied with advanced stats as proof? first pdo is luck, so your reply has no credibility. Real stats make your reply even less relevant.

Polak. 54 GP, 2G, 10A +5 46PIMS 0.22PPG 1 MILLION
Gudas . 70GP, 2G, 14A, 0+/- 83PIMS 0.23PPG 3,350,000 MILLION

WOW.


PDO is context - Gudas had worse puck luck than Polak while posting better numbers. Points per game, plus minus, or penalty minutes don't really have any impact on who is better. Advanced metrics are "real stats" - in fact, they are more valuable for individual player evaluation than points, +/-, and penalty minutes.

When you delve into the underlying numbers, it's abundantly clear that Gudas makes his pair-mates better, while Polak makes them worse.
Looking at the Gudas-Sanheim pair (238 5v5 mins), they posted a 7.84 rel CF%, 7.81 rel xGF%, along with an abysmal 94.9 PDO (atrocious puck luck)
But when you examine Sanheim-MacDonald pair (208 5v5 mins), they posted 5.35 rel CF%, 6.04 rel xGF%, but had an upper tranche ranking in PDO of 103.3

Moving over to Polak, him with Dermott (223 5v5 mins), they had a 3.07 rel CF%, -1.14 rel xGF%, and a 103 PDO.
However, when you look at Dermott with Carrick (184 5v5 mins), the numbers are vastly better : 7.4 rel CF%, 14.72 rel xGF%, and PDO of 96.

Looking at Owen Kewell's NHL Similarity Tool, Gudas' most comparable player for offense is Calvin de Haan (70%) and Stephen Johns for defense (87.7%). Roman Polak's most comparable player for offense is Kevan Miller (89%) and Luke Schenn (77.4%) for defense.

If you don't believe in the value of underlying metrics, that's your prerogative. In doing so, you will loose respect to have a rational conversation if you refuse to acknowledge that they are realistic metrics to determining individual player analysis.
9 août 2018 à 15 h 10
#25
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Quoting: buds16
You replied with advanced stats as proof? first pdo is luck, so your reply has no credibility. Real stats make your reply even less relevant.

Polak. 54 GP, 2G, 10A +5 46PIMS 0.22PPG 1 MILLION
Gudas . 70GP, 2G, 14A, 0+/- 83PIMS 0.23PPG 3,350,000 MILLION

WOW.


You aren't paying either of those guys to get points though. The issue with Polak is that he cannot move the puck and exit the zone. Can Gudas do that? Can he then be a physical presence and eat up minutes? Can he then penalty kill? I'm not going to pretend I watch Philly often, but my understanding is yes he can do all of the above effectively enough to be a #4D on this team.

That's my thought process anyway.
 
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