As we approach February and teams play their 50th game, I think it's time to reevaluating John Tavares' impending free agency.

Last time, the conclusion I came to was that Tavares was best suited in St. Louis and Carolina. I think we can safely say that things have changed.

So what are the criteria that Tavares will consider?

1) Team has a stable arena, management, and ownership situation:
- Eliminates: Arizona Coyotes, Florida Panthers
- Remaining: 29 teams
2) Team is a legitimate contender within 3 years
- Eliminates: Buffalo Sabres, Detroit Red Wings, Vancouver Canucks
- Remaining: 26 teams
3) Team has a need for a top-line (or at least a #2) center
- Eliminates: Pittsburgh Penguins, Washington Capitals, Philadelphia Flyers, Tampa Bay Lightning, Boston Bruins, Winnipeg Jets, Nashville Predators, Calgary Flames, Anaheim Ducks, Chicago Blackhawks
- Remaining: 16 teams
4) Team has (or can reasonably make) cap space for $10+ million
- Eliminates: Ottawa Senators, Los Angeles Kings, Minnesota Wild
- Remaining: 13 teams
5) Teams that, after signing Tavares, would be in an untennable long-term bind
- Eliminates: Toronto Maple Leafs, Columbus Blue Jackets, Dallas Stars, Edmonton Oilers
- Remaining: 9 teams

Remaining Teams: New Jersey Devils, New York Rangers, New York Islanders, Carolina Hurricanes, Montreal Canadiens, St. Louis Blues, Vegas Golden Knights, San Jose Sharks, Colorado Avalanche

Rankings the contenders:
Tier 3 (Lowest Tier)

Each of these teams could have the cap space, but it would require them to make a move that they might not be comfortable with. The Rangers would be in somewhat of a salary bind, which may require them to relinquish free agents. The Blues may have to trade someone like Vladamir Sobotka or Patrick Berglund, which could be hard, as both have bigger than desirable contracts. The Devils could fit him in, but besides the Tri-State rivalry with the Islanders, the Devils may have a tough time fitting in all their future free agents, and may have to trade Travis Zajac.

Tier 2 (middle tier)

Both Montreal and San Jose, while having plenty of cap space, are trending downward, and are relying on aging core pieces. While we can't rule out these teams, it would be somewhat surprising from Tavares.
The Islanders still have to be contenders, with the new arena and plenty of promising talent coming through the organization. However, they do have longer term contract issues to resolve if they do resign Tavares.

Tier 1 (top contenders)

All three of these teams look like up and comers in less intense environments, great for someone who's never been a huge fan of the media spotlight.
The Avalanche have a top line center in MacKinnon, but with Tavares, they could have an excellent 1-2 punch down the middle. They may want to develop their prospects, but with Soderberg and Wilson coming off the books within the next two years after the Tavares signing, there should be enough money to go around.
The Golden Knights have shown amazing success, great management, and a passionate owner. They're built for success at just about every position, and have plenty of cap space. What's not to like?
The Hurricanes have an amazing D-corps and one of the most player-friendly environments in league history. There are goalie issues, and the coach is on the hot seat, but with a new owner and lots of young talent, there's tons to build around. Adding Tavares makes them a playoff team.

My personal rankings
1. Carolina Hurricanes
2. Vegas Golden Knights
3. Colorado Avalanche
4. New York Islanders
5. San Jose Sharks

Nice work. I don't think the Blues would be very hesitant should Tavares become a free agent. The money would work, at worst they'd have to buy out Bouwmeester (here's how tight it would be without a buyout www.capfriendly.com/armchair-gm/team/538050 but I think it's fantasy to think JT will be anywhere else than with the Isles. Just a hunch at this point tho - it could be more interesting.

I don't know if I see the situation on the Island getting a whole lot better unless some bloated contracts (Cizikas, Clutterbuck, etc.) are moved, so I have a hard time seeing him willing to go back.

With regards to the Blues, I think they're absolutely in the conversation, and should definitely be considered a good shot at getting Tavares. They're a borderline tier 2 team for me. The only reason I kept them out is because, with Brayden Schenn already in the fold, they might not be willing to drop $11 million on another center, even if it is a player of Tavares' caliber. The other T1 and T2 teams all have a need, and they have plenty of cap space to make it happen without moving bodies.

I like the set up here. Although I doubt the islanders let him walk to a division rival. They will match any team in the same division as them. I do like Colorado up their but in the end I do believe he will resign

I think im the only one that feels St Louis is a #1 contender. how are they not? they will have the cap space after stasney walks... and if they add tavares they could be #1 in the west. they'd be a great fit for him. they have all the pieces except a true 1C and tavares more than fits that bill. for me... if he does leave NYI (which he wont) st Louis will be the favourite

I'd love to see him hit unrestricted free agency, but at this point, I don't see it as very realistic. The team can be a solid playoff team once they add a goalie and maybe another defenseman. The arena situation is getting figured out. That checks all the boxes. I'd be stunned (yet thrilled) if he hits the open market.

But let's just say he gets there. Here is my breakdown of the potential contenders.




They'd be the frontrunner. They'll have the cap space to bring him in, makes them an instant Cup favorite, he doesn't have to be the "go-to" guy, everything makes sense. The only downside to him going to St. Louis is that he wouldn't get to wear #91.





They'll have a ton of cap space to work with, depending on which guys they want to bring back. Adding an elite player like Tavares would provide long-term security, and it means that they don't need Cody Glass to develop into an elite center. He can slide in to the 2C spot, or if William Karlsson keeps this up, they could have the best C depth in the league. There are a ton of options with him, and given the success of this team already, JT could make a dynasty happen in Vegas.




Tavares and Mackinnon down the middle would be absolutely lethal. The offense would be able to score in circles around their opponents. They still need a long-term goalie option, as well as some more defensive depth. But this team will have it in no time, especially if getting it means Tavares. The cap situation works out, and they're thrown into the mix for 1st in the Central. A year or two later, we're talking about a team with Cup aspirations.




If they have to move Dubinsky to do it, they'll give him away. JT + Panarin is enticing, they have an extremely young defense core, and an elite goalie. Cup contenders for sure, and the favorites in the Metro. The reason they aren't top contenders for him is because they'd need to move Dubinsky first to make it happen, and that could be tricky.



Carolina isn't in the running for me. They still don't have a goalie, and there are much better options for him that have #1 netminders. Montreal has no shot. The constant media bashing isn't something he'd like, and that team is in trouble organizationally anyways. San Jose is interesting, but it's mostly due to the Sharks not being in a spot to win right away, even if they add Tavares.


But at the end of the day, he should be signing an extension with the Islanders. I'd love to see him walk, but the only indication of him leaving is that he doesn't have a contract right now.

Most likely:
5 - VAN
4 - SJS
3 - TBL (no joke)
2 - MTL
1 - NYI

Least likely:
5 - TOR (i'm not kidding here)
4 - CHI
3 - DET
2 - PIT
1 - EDM

Why Tampa?

Emphasis mine.

I am aware Carolina's goaltending is worse than St. Louis', but St. Louis currently being carried by a career year from a ~.910-.912 goaltender, instead of their career ~.913 goalie who's a .909 this season. Add on the fact that a lot more of Carolina's team is quite young and that Carolina will (or at least should) go after him far more aggressively than St. Louis, and I don't think you can rule them out.

Everybody knows that Toronto isn't a serious player. The cap situation is too tight.

I think Tavares is going to sign with the Islanders or the Blues. I kinda like Tavares being a Hurricane though.

Everybody except Leafs fans.

If he got traded at the deadline, then Steve Yzerman might find a way to sign him.

To eliminate Buffalo for not being a legit contender in 3 years just makes you look bad tbh. Housley after a year under his belt and the youth being brought up should make this team much better. No need for another center might be better depending on if ROR isn't traded. Yes of course I'm a homer, but you should seriously look at the future of the sabres before you make that assumption.

Tavares stays with the Isles. Case closed.

Now Karlsson and OEL on the other hand are to completely different stories....

Karlsson stays. OEL is a bit more questionable but i predict he re-signs.

I'm pretty sure you could make the same argument with just about every team in the NHL. I don't like to be mean to teams, but the Sabres have one top-end prospect: Casey Mittlestadt. Nylander has had serious injury issues, none of their defensive prospects have great potential, and they have plenty of tough to unload contracts for the next two seasons. I'm not considering any draft prospect they may get this year either. So while things COULD turn around in three years, will they be a championship contender? Probably not. More likely, a marginal playoff team.

Olofsson leads goal scoring in the shl at 20 years old. CJ Smith is lighting up the AHL along with Ullmark being a solid goalie. Guhle is a great skater and quality puck moving defenseman that is almost NHL top 4 ready. Not to mention Eichel has turned it on. Buffalo will turn around next year. Don't sleep on the sabres.

I feel like we've been hearing this for the past 2 years.

The difference being that we have a real gm and a real (not washed up) head coach.

From a hockey logic point....I like St Louis as the best fit. What we don't know if how committed JT is committed to the New York area, which then brings in the Isles, Devils and Rangers.