VERSION 2 from yesterday's ACGM, after input. The original description:
Based on results so far, this is what I could see the roster looking like by the end of the season. I actually like what Paz has done with the system so far, but Jarmo likely gets fired in the offseason to signal a leadership change. Players on the chopping block include:
Bemstrom: He's an RFA and probably doesn't fit the long-term plans, but he's looked good recently
Peeke: Pleasge get this man off my team
Bean: He's a UFA, and there's better 3LD in the system. Trade him to a contender looking for depth D
Roslovic: He probably doesn't have a spot on the roster when he comes back from injury, let alone long-term. Hasn't been a fit, move him to a contender half-retained.
Provorov: What's the point of keeping a Mateychuk-placeholder when Mateychuk becomes NHL-ready? Sell him for essentially even-value to cost of acquisition
And controversially:
Laine: I don't know what else to say other than he doesn't look right. There's flashes of game-changing power and skill, but 99% of the time he's just coasting or turning over the puck. Find a hockey trade for a team looking at reclaiming his value.
Jenner: Look, I don't know that there's a more valuable realistic trade chip on the roster. Nothing signals "the results aren't good enough" like trading your captain and franchise games-played record holder. This sets us up for a massive leadership change and culture change. The bidding war for a player like Jenner yields a massive haul for the future. Maybe we move some picks for NHL-players in the offseason, like last year.
Players rumored to be on the move that stay put:
Merzlikins: I just don't think there's a non-Campbell swap that makes sense for this team, and the price of a Campbell swap is something Edmonton likely isn't willing to pay. He stays put until the goalie of the future, Jet Greaves, is ready.
Boqvist: He's, IMO, one of the 6 best defensemen on the roster now. May or may not have a long-term spot, but he's signed through next year so we punt on that decision.
Lines are based on what's working now (based on Moneypuck), and what might make sense. The team likely makes a couple moves to take on a cap dump and gain more assets with the newfound cap space. We also probably move a lot of those picks for upgrades before the 2024-25 season.
THE EDITS:
Colorado trade: 2025 1st -> conditional 2026 2nd.
Pittsburgh trade -> Nashville trade
New Jersey trade -> Arizona trade, 5th + Bean for 3rd -> 6th + Bean for 4th, no retention
Toronto trade -> Dillon is a non-factor now, so Peeke gets sent instead (not sure why Dillon still appears on this roster...)
Anaheim/Winnipeg trades -> Columbus deals with Calgary instead
If there's enough discussion on it, maybe I'll make a revision 3 later.
Columbus gets essentially two 1sts, with the potential for a third, for trading the captain, and retaining on what's already one of the best contracts in the league.
CONDITION: 2026 2nd -> 2025 1st if Colorado wins the Cup in 2024 or 2025
Colorado gets a legit 2C, with an insanely good cap hit and term. It costs an arm and a leg, considering the retention and bidding war if Jenner became available.
Columbus pays for a prospect at a position of need, hoping to essentially upgrade one of their draft picks with a player that may contribute a few years sooner.
Columbus gets Peeke a change of scenery, and buys out Reaves in the offseason for a $450,000 cap hit for 4 seasons. They get a mid-round pick for their troubles.
Toronto gets out of the Reaves deal, gets a useful (?) NHL RD, with the same term and slightly more expensive contract than Reaves, for next-to-nothing.
Hear me out. Columbus takes a chance on Huberdeau, finally gets the 2C they want, and gets a 1st to get Calgary out of the Huberdeau bind.
Totally contingent on Huberdeau waiving his NMC to change scenery (which is unlikely), AND Lindholm extending before the end of the year, AND Laine not having Calgary on his 10-team NTL (which, again, is unlikely).
This would be a total Hail Mary hockey trade for Columbus on two players approaching (or at) the wrong side of 30, in the hopes of competing sooner rather than later. The picks are necessary for Columbus to take a chance on what could be a top-3 worst contract in the league for a very long time.
Calgary gets some players with term for a UFA and a boat anchor of a deal. Provorov fills the void left by an assumed Hanifin trade, and Laine hopefully upgrades the gap Huberdeau should have filled. A hockey trade for both teams, and CGY pays handsomely to move both term and cap.
Flames are in for a major rebuild after this year. They will just bite the bullet on the huberdeau contract instead of paying to dump him. Doubtful they need the cap in the next 5 years or so
I personally would not make that Leafs trade. Peeke is struggling to crack Colmubus D core. Leafs have a lot of defensive depth. They are just missing a top 4 dman to push everyone down. Peeke isn't atop 4 dman. Reaves cap hit can more easily be managed and burried than Peeke.
I assume some Leaf fans accept that deal, but I pass it quite easily.