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LumberJacques
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4 févr. 2019
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Canadiens de Montréal
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MENTIONS "J'AIME"
ÉQUIPES VIA FAUTEUIL-DG
Forum:
Armchair-GM
13 nov. 2023 à 16 h 23
Sujet:
Nikita Zadorov Trade Comps
<div class="quote"><div class="quote_t">Quoting: <b>NHLfan10506</b></div><div>So, in other words, why isn't Zadorov getting a 1st round pick plus?
-- Savard was a solid dman back then and was #3 in Columbus. He was also part of three-way trade and was double-retained...so a good part of his return was baked into the salary savings.
-- Chiarot was an odd trade as he was Montreal's #1 in 2022, but was an analytics mess...many teams were not bullish, but he was dealt between two clubs that were not data-driven teams. And generally seen as poor trade.
-- Risto trade is generally seen as one of the worst trades in recent times. But like Chiarot, he was #1 in ice time, was traded between two clubs that didn't manage with analytics. Also, Chuck Fletcher is terrible GM.
All of these were also outliers....</div></div>
IMO the reason these players were getting so much ice was the weakness of their teams' defense. None of the players I mentioned had an Andersson, Weegar or Hannifin ahead of them on the depth chart at the time they were traded.
Regardless of ice time (which is largely driven by teammate quality) I still maintain that all of Chiarot, Savard, Kulak, Ristolainen, Zadorov and even maybe Gavrikov (though his trade is more complicated because of Korpisalo being part of it) can be claimed to have more in common through their role as big and rugged number 4/5 defensive defensemen than Zadorov has with the likes of Benn, Folin, Josh Brown, Beaulieu, Coburn (in 2021), Del Zotto, Gilbert, Manning and Jack Johnson (most of whom were depth defensemen in their last or second-to-last year in the NHL) and therefore are fully worthy of inclusion in this list of comparables for Zadorov.
Forum:
Armchair-GM
13 nov. 2023 à 11 h 9
Sujet:
Nikita Zadorov Trade Comps
Why not have Chiarot and Savard in your comps, or Ristolainen and Kulak?
Also small clarification on Petry: MTL didn't get Lindstrom + 4th when he asked for a trade, they got Matheson and a 4th for Petry and Poehling. The Lindstrom trade was more a GM doing a vet a solid by sending him to his ideal destination regardless of the return.
Forum:
Armchair-GM
1 nov. 2023 à 16 h 10
Sujet:
Creating a team with castaways
3 or 4 years ago this would probably have been a pretty good playoff team.
Forum:
Armchair-GM
1 nov. 2023 à 12 h 4
Sujet:
Way to much work valuing Weegar in a Trade
My big problem with the comparables you used (minus Ekholm) is that they were all in their early or mid 20's at the time of those trades. The acquiring team in those trades were buying those players' prime years which wouldn't be the case for Weegar at 30.
The reason Weegar's value is so unclear is because he is in a fairly unique situation with few to no comps. Players don't usually get traded with 7 or 8 years of term left and usually the selling team is motivated by a pressure point to resolve the situation. Hamilton had just completed his ELC and clearly the team and player didn't see eye-to-eye on his role and compensation moving forward. Eichel needed surgery to play and the team and player couldn't agree on what treatment he should have. Jones was entering his pending UFA season on a rebuilding team. Chychrun had been asking to be traded for over a year, had trade protection coming up in his contract and was playing well leading into the trade deadline. Arizona probably felt he was at peak value and didn't want to risk an injury if they kept him until the offseason.
I personally think the most likely outcome would be a good old-fashioned "Hockey Trade" or an Ekholm or Trouba style trade where a team upgrades their defence at the cost of 1st/prospect combo.
Forum:
Fauteuil - DG
24 oct. 2023 à 21 h 56
Sujet:
Montreal Canadiens try not take 5 penalties level impossible
I'd rather have a guy I need to try to restrain than one I need to push. Plus come playoff time (not this season obviously) there are no soft calls.
Forum:
Armchair-GM
14 oct. 2023 à 11 h 7
Sujet:
Fire Houle
<div class="quote"><div class="quote_t">Quoting: <b>palhal</b></div><div>Just for the ill informed. Who is Houle?
By the way all those NHLers playing for the AHL Laval team, lost to Abbottsford last night.</div></div>
Houle is the coach in Laval. Though I don't know who you're referring to by "NHLers playing for Laval". Outside of Armia there aren't many players with NHL experience in Laval.
Forum:
Armchair-GM
12 oct. 2023 à 22 h 27
Sujet:
Curious would Habs fans like this
<div class="quote"><div class="quote_t">Quoting: <b>Xspyrit</b></div><div>You'd be able to recoup a 2nd and maybe more for Kubalik at the deadline. Same for Brannstrom, you'd be able to make a nice profit at some point
Note that If Dorion didn't mess things up, I would never look to do that
But the point for Montreal is that despite the LD prospects and the UFA status of Kubalik, you don't have to keep players forever, you buy low sell high since you are in a rebuild. Dorion is easy to benefit from so the trade is made for that. Unless you think Ylonen and Kovacevic would return more than two 2nds or something like that?</div></div>
I understand where you're coming from but I respectfully disagree about the potential upside of the deal from MTL's perspective.
Firstly I don't believe that Brannstrom carries much value in the league right now, nor do I believe this to change in the short term. Recent trade trends suggest that undersized defensemen aren't in much demand by most teams, especially if those defensemen aren't elite offensively. I firmly believe it would be far easier to get value at the deadline for Kovacevich than Brannstrom. Not only is Kovacevich half a foot taller but he also shoots right and had all of 3 fewer points than Brannstrom last season while costing less than league minimum and less than half of Brannstrom's cap.
For Kubalik's part I don't disagree that he could likely recoup value at the deadline but that would require extra effort to showcase him and likely retention on his contract by MTL. This is where his opportunity cost comes into play since MTL only have 1 retention slot remaining, which they are likely keeping for Monahan. Using a broker would eat into the expected return and reduces the overall upside of the Sens-Habs trade.
In short I believe Kovacevich is not only more important to MTL currently than Brannstrom would be, but also likely holds more value across the league so this part doesn't work for me. Next while I would trade Ylonen for Kubalik I would not include a 3rd because this would significantly reduce the upside of this trade for MTL. While Kubalik would return more than Ylonen (likely around a 2nd based on comparables) this would only result in marginal value if any (about 15 slots between the 2nd and 3rd round picks minus the broker fee of a 4th or 5th).
Forum:
Armchair-GM
12 oct. 2023 à 21 h 3
Sujet:
Curious would Habs fans like this
<div class="quote"><div class="quote_t">Quoting: <b>GalchyTheBeast27</b></div><div>Totally agree, habs aren't moving picks for guys we don't need. Wouldn't mind moving Ylonen tho, I don't really see a future where's he a Hab.</div></div>
For Ylonen I wouldn't be opposed to moving him either but I just don't think there is much interest or value out there for him right now. In the mean time I think he fills his role quite well and I personally prefer seeing him on the ice than the likes of Pearson or Armia while the younger prospects develop in more appropriate environments.
Forum:
Armchair-GM
12 oct. 2023 à 20 h 39
Sujet:
Curious would Habs fans like this
<div class="quote"><div class="quote_t">Quoting: <b>GalchyTheBeast27</b></div><div>I agree about LD, but in term of pending UFA we could if it's a cap dump situation with some sort of a sweetener. Otherwise no, indeed.</div></div>
Yeah I agree.
By "acquiring" I meant they wouldn't spend assets to get LD and UFA, though If another team wants to pay to offload those then that's a different story.
Forum:
Armchair-GM
12 oct. 2023 à 20 h 27
Sujet:
Curious would Habs fans like this
As many have mentioned above LD and pending UFAs are not things that MTL would have any interest in acquiring.
Forum:
Armchair-GM
10 oct. 2023 à 14 h 37
Sujet:
Gally buy out year one
<div class="quote"><div class="quote_t">Quoting: <b>MTLaveragefan</b></div><div>it's still cheaper to buy him and hand him a cheap longterm contract afterwards.</div></div>
Honestly I wouldn't bother, he's probably LTIRetired within the next 2 years.
Forum:
Armchair-GM
10 oct. 2023 à 14 h 10
Sujet:
Gally buy out year one
<div class="quote"><div class="quote_t">Quoting: <b>TMLBRIAN</b></div><div>You can't buy someone out and then immediately re-sign him for a much lower cap.
Cap Circumvention Unfortunately.</div></div>
That's not true.
Teams can't use a Compliance Buyout and re-sign a player but they can absolutely use a normal Buyout and resign the player. The Flames did it in 2019 with Micheal Stone. They bought him out of the last year of his $3.5m contract on August 1st 2019 and signed him to a $700k contract on September 11th the same year.
Forum:
Armchair-GM
9 oct. 2023 à 11 h 39
Sujet:
Awful Team
<div class="quote"><div class="quote_t">Quoting: <b>F50marco</b></div><div>Anderson on the first line is because of who they're playing in the first game of the season I got to think. RHP will be there eventually when the games are against the rest of the league.</div></div>
Anderson does like playing against Toronto.
Forum:
Armchair-GM
9 oct. 2023 à 11 h 37
Sujet:
Awful Team
<div class="quote"><div class="quote_t">Quoting: <b>Just_A_Guess</b></div><div>Let's be real, that 3rd line will all be injured soon enough ...</div></div>
Lol, very true.
I was hoping they would put Pearson on waivers and have him shake off the rust with Armia in Laval.
Forum:
Armchair-GM
9 oct. 2023 à 11 h 20
Sujet:
Awful Team
I'm less concerned about the 1st line than the Monahan-Gallagher-Pearson line. That has to be the slowest line in the entire NHL.
I'd prefer they put Pezz in for Pearson to get some extra footspeed in that lineup
Forum:
Armchair-GM
19 août 2023 à 18 h 15
Sujet:
blow up
I know you wrote "any team" but I still can't understand why some people think that Hellebuyck to MTL is even a possibility. I mean it makes no sense from either MTL or even Hellebuyck's perspective.
Forum:
Armchair-GM
16 août 2023 à 18 h 29
Sujet:
Potential prospect swap
<div class="quote"><div class="quote_t">Quoting: <b>Rags21</b></div><div>I mean he only plays 15 minutes and 0 powerplay time lol You just named guys who were actually given a chance
Dallas traded a 1st for Lundkvist who wasn’t a proven NHLer besides having good SHL stats</div></div>
That's a fair point and it's not impossible that Jones has a fan in another team's management or coaching staff that pushes for them to acquire him. I would however point out that Lundqvist's 1st round pedigree and right-handedness likely boosted his perceived potential and price. This is similar to Lias Andersson who would never have returned a 2nd based on his play if he wasn't a former 7OA pick.
As for opportunity you are 100% right it's a Catch-22, if they aren't given the opportunity they can't prove themselves and attract other teams' interest. But the truth is that the NHL is an extremely competitive environment and if he can't leave no doubt about being one of the 6 best defencemen on his team it makes it hard for another team to believe he will be a meaningful upgrade on their own roster worth paying for.
Forum:
Armchair-GM
16 août 2023 à 17 h 37
Sujet:
Potential prospect swap
<div class="quote"><div class="quote_t">Quoting: <b>busters99</b></div><div>Jones's value to a team would be as a PP QB</div></div>
Ok, he's played 38 total NHL games and has 1goal and 7 assists. That hardly screams "guy who'll quarterback my powerplay this season".
Beyond this the recent trade returns of Gostisbehere, Petry, DeAngelo, Barrie and Durzi (who actually have a proven track record of NHL level play and offensive production) doesn't showcase a very big market for that skillset. If a team was truly looking for a young PP QB guys like Addison (who MIN don't seem enamoured with) or Heinola (who seems lost in the numbers game in WPG) would likely be far more promising options. For more experienced options Barrie, Kylington, Gostisbehere and Erik Gustafsson could likely be had for a decent price around the deadline.
All this to say that I doubt any team looks at Jones and believes he could be a solution for their PP at the NHL level as things stand.
Forum:
Armchair-GM
16 août 2023 à 12 h 4
Sujet:
Potential prospect swap
<div class="quote"><div class="quote_t">Quoting: <b>Rags21</b></div><div>I mean he was one of the better defenseman in the whole AHL. Yea he loses value because he isn’t waiver exempt but he’s signed for cheap for 2 years.
As for not making the nhl lineup, that’s all on gallant. He’s an old school coach who didn’t believe in undersized defensemen. He would rather play Harpur who isn’t that good over Zac Jones simply because Harpur is 6’6 lol</div></div>
Gallant is far from the only coach to favour the big lads, the thing is that the NHL as a whole doesn't value undersized defencemen much unless they are absolutely elite. While he is signed for cheap, his role to this point doesn't suggest this is likely to be an underpay.
The fact that he is waivers-eligible means that any acquiring team needs to have a very high level of certainty that he will take a regular spot on their defence and be a better option than their current lineup. If that is the case then how much of an upgrade is he? Does he simply improve on your 6th Dman, or your 5th or do you believe he has a very strong chance of being an upgrade in your top 4? Given his lack of experience at the NHL level it would be incredibly optimistic to assume he would feature among a team's 4 best defencemen.
Following my reasoning above most teams would likely view him as at best a bottom-pair upgrade. This begs the question: what would you pay for a possible bottom-pair upgrade who might also never be more than a 7th Dman at the NHL level?
Forum:
Armchair-GM
16 août 2023 à 11 h 21
Sujet:
Potential prospect swap
The problem here is that you are trying to sell an undersized, waivers-eligible defenseman who hasn't been able to earn an NHL spot for younger players who don't have to pass through waivers.
The real question is which team has a place(and a need) for him? Most of the teams you picked seem to have pretty congested blue-lines already so I doubt they have much interest in Jones. From the outside I'd say Vancouver, San Jose, Arizona or Chicago could maybe have some interest but I doubt they feel like giving much up for him.
In general I think you should probably temper your expectations about the value this player should return given his lack of track record in the NHL and now waivers-eligible status.
Forum:
Armchair-GM
11 août 2023 à 23 h 49
Sujet:
How do they get compliant
Just go with a 21 man roster and you can fit just fine.
Podkolzin, Hirose and Aman don't need waivers to go down so should be pretty painless.
Forum:
Armchair-GM
6 août 2023 à 14 h 19
Sujet:
DISSECTING THE KARLSSON TRADE
<div class="quote"><div class="quote_t">Quoting: <b>Ennis</b></div><div>I also heard Petry was traded from MTL originally because he wanted out? I dunno if that's what happened but that's why I was confused.</div></div>
Yeah his family stayed in the US during Covid quarantine so he asked for a trade to move south of the border to be closer to them (they lived in Michigan I think). His play suffered that year and the team was awful, some in MTL didn't like the manner of his departure and his return isn't exactly the cleanest.
Forum:
Armchair-GM
6 août 2023 à 14 h 6
Sujet:
DISSECTING THE KARLSSON TRADE
For MTL, Engels reports that the idea is that they are looking to retain salary and trade Petry. At about $2.3m he might find a suitor, certainly easier than moving Hoffman.
Forum:
Armchair-GM
5 août 2023 à 14 h 59
Sujet:
3C RHD
<div class="quote"><div class="quote_t">Quoting: <b>kingkanuck</b></div><div>Some people might suggest that I'm overpaying for Dach. All he has going for him is potential and size. He hasn't scored much, he isn't good on faceoffs.
So what makes him worth more than Beauvillier, Brisebois and 2nd? </div></div>
Dach scored all of 2 fewer points than Beauvillier while missing almost 1/3 of the season so if scoring is an issue for Dach I don't know what that says about Beauvillier. He's also bigger, younger and plays a more premium position while also having both a longer and cheaper contract with team control beyond it.
Brisebois is a 26 y/o journeyman defenceman who's passed through waivers unclaimed 3 times already and could only manage 17 games on Vancouver's atrocious blue-line last season. He probably has little value if any at all at this time.
I think any GM of a rebuilding team with a brain would keep the big, young and cheaper centerman who's starting to breakout (and has term) over taking a pending UFA undersized middle-six winger, waiver fodder defenseman, and 2nd round pick nearly 2 years away.
Forum:
Armchair-GM
23 juill. 2023 à 20 h 53
Sujet:
Would Detroit do it
Short answer: no
Long answer: HELL NO!
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